4 Systems are better than 1 ?? (EXTINCT)

[Grex]

[relf]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Interesting system you have there! I think it would be better if you could elaborate your systems more? Because I'm half-curious and half-confused. :lol I think I understand (1) and (3), but for (2), I don't really understand what you meant by the 2nd part. (Would be good if you were to give an example.) But still, good luck for your selections! I hope it doesn't clash with the Short Priced Home Favourites though. (What happens if the selections clash? Lol!) The selections look fine to me, except Everton-Man City. And I'm with you on Stoke +0.5 AH after watching Liverpool's defeat to Reading. :hope *Just a little note, you might want to edit the ordering of your selections (i.e. 11234)

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Thanks for your interest, Relf. Yes, I was in a bit of a rush, and didn’t explain myself very well. :spank

System 2, (“Risk”) is based on a well-tried system which has been doing the rounds for some years. In the original system, all teams were allocated 100 points at the start of the season. For each game, the 2 teams (say, Team A and Team B) would offer or “risk” 10% of their points total…. so for the first round of matches of the season, all teams would be risking 10 points. The winner (say Team A) would take Team B’s 10 points (i.e it would have 110 points) and Team B would forfeit its 10 points and would then have a total of 90 points. If the match was drawn, both teams would take 5 points. The next round of matches the teams would again risk 10% of their running total points (Team A, 11 points…. Team B, 9 points) and so on.

Later in the season, if high-flying Team C (with 180 points) were playing relegation-strugglers Team D (with 40 points), Team C would be risking 18 points, whereas Team D would only be risking 4 points. If, as likely, Team C won, they would only gain 4 points and Team D would lose 4 points… in the unlikely event of Team D winning, they would be rewarded by adding 18 points to there total, and Team C would forfeit 18 points. If a draw, Team C would take 2 points and Team D would gain 9 points. In this way teams are rewarded consistent with the apparent strength of the opposition.

I back-tested this original system and it produced a small positive yield. So, having nothing better to do, I “played around” and introduced some modifications to the original system. Instead of all teams starting with 100 points, they were allocated between 500 points and 300 points, based on their finishing position the previous season (the 3 promoted teams were all awarded 300 points). Other modifications included the home team risking a higher percentage than the away team…. also a small adjustment for the winning or losing goal margin.

I then analysed the results over the past 9 seasons and produced result probability equations based on the points difference between 2 opposing teams. By comparing these probabilities with odds offered, it was possible to establish “value” bets i.e where the predicted probability exceeded the odds probability. Various “cut-offs” were introduced to produce the best yield over the 9 seasons. What is particularly encouraging is that the back-tested yield has been more-or-less repeated during “live” testing for the current season.

The system only selects home wins (or away lays), so there is no possibility of selections clashing with those of the “Short-priced home favourites”.

I also noticed the error on the bet numbers after I had posted…. But the rules say you can not edit selection posts…. so I will correct it when I post the results. :ok

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? OMG…. the System is doomed to failure even before it gets off the ground. I’ve just checked with Mark Lawrenson’s (Lawro) predictions on the BBC Sports website, and……. he predicts that Everton, Portsmouth, Stoke, Wolves and Blackburn are all going to win….. and he is NEVER right. :( :(

But, on the other hand, perhaps he read this thread and copied my selections :lol :lol

[relf]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Thanks for your long and detailed explanation, I get it! I used to play games at Yahoo and I think they use this kind of scoring - the stronger has more points to lose against the weaker one. A part of me wonders if the EPL should implement this system. :loon As for Lawro's predictions, he's not always wrong. He's just seldom right. Haha. I remembered he was pretty biased against Blackburn in the past, and there was one season when a member in the 606 forums commented that if all his predictions for Blackburn matches came true for that season, Blackburn would have less than 20 points. But it was a few seasons ago. So I'm quite surprised he's going for a Blackburn win.

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? You're right, Relf..... I was being very unfair on Lawro.... what I meant to say was that he never gets them all correct (but then, who does ? ;)). Fingers extra-crossed for Blackburn :hope :hope

The first selection came good, although with a bit of luck….. Liverpool apparently were denied a “stone-wall” penalty and Stoke equalised in injury time…. still, they all count :)

[relf]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ??

And I'm with you on Stoke +0.5 AH after watching Liverpool's defeat to Reading. :hope

Glad that my first selection of the weekend came through. :ok Liverpool looked like a mid-table team. Makes me wonder how long Benitez will stay before the board lose their patience. As for Blackburn, let's say if I could choose between a League Cup final and 3 points in Fulham match, I would choose the former. :rollin

[Grex]

[Jenspm]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Interesting system you got there, I had a similar one a while ago.. Mine was based on goals for/against in recent matches, and the goals were weighted depending on how much the oposition scored/conceded. Eg. Scoring away to Birmingham gives you more points than scoring at Home to Wigan. However, it was so much work I couldn't bare working numbers for more than 12 games.. It had a decent strike rate though, with 7/10 at 1X2 and 9/12 in the over/unders :P I've been thinking about finding a way to make the system do this automatically, but haven't gotten it to work. And herein lies my question - do you do all this manually, or do you have an automatic system that figures it all out for you (eg. how much is risked, won, lost, etc etc)

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Hi, Jenspm..... yes, most of the hard work is done automatically in Excel. I also tried a similar "weighted goals" system, but I couldn't get it to produce any benefit. I'll try to dig up the Excel file and send it to you as an attachment to a personal message.... but you have to have some knowledge of Excel.... OK? :ok

[Jenspm]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? That'd be great, thanks :) Yeah, I know my way around Excel :)

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? I can't see how to attach files to PMs.... perhaps it's not possible.... can anybody help ? Otherwise, Jenspm, you'll have to give me your email address on a post.... but perhaps you don't want to make it public :loon

[Jenspm]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? nah, I'm ok with that.. :) jens.munthe [at] gmail.com

[relf]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Decent start for your system. It's already guaranteed a profit regardless of Blackburn's result. :clap

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? What do you mean "regardless of Blackburn's result" ?..... your team are going to WIN :cheers

[Djordje]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? nice start Grex :ok

[relf]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? First win in 10 league matches for Blackburn! :cow

[Grex]

[Grex]

[Rushian]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? My guess Grex would be that most stat-based systems would show Liverpool as a value bet at those prices. Fingers crossed! :hope As for the last time Liverpool were available at over 2.50 at home, we are usually at those prices against Man Utd and Chelsea so my guess would be sometime in October for the United match. The question should have been "Can you remember the last time Liverpool were priced at home to Spurs at over 2.50?" ... :eek

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ??

..... As for the last time Liverpool were available at over 2.50 at home' date=' we are usually at those prices against Man Utd and Chelsea so my guess would be sometime in October for the United match.....[/quote'] ..... and we all know what happened in that match :(.... so the omens are good :D. What's this ?..... a Man United fan hoping for a Liverpool victory :loon

[relf]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? I have decided to stay away from the Liverpool/Spurs match, despite Liverpool failing to even beat Stoke. My head says lay Liverpool, but my heart says Liverpool are due a morale-boosting win for their efforts. Liverpool are at home this time, and I think they might just sneak a 1-0 win (probably with the help of a sympathetic referee :lol). We'll see.

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ??

Liverpool are at home this time' date=' and I think they might just sneak a 1-0 win (probably with the help of a sympathetic referee :lol). We'll see.[/quote'] ..... you mean like the referee that was very sympathetic to Man City last night ? :wall:wall Interesting to note that the Pinnacle odds on Liverpool have dropped from 2.53 on Monday to 2.33 now (90 minutes before kick-off). I really do not understand what drives the fluctuations in odds..... is it purely "market forces", or is it something more sinister ? I would be interested to hear anybody's opinion.... if there is any way of predicting these fluctuations, then you could obviously time the placing of your bets to your own advantage.

[Jenspm]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Grex, afaik, the bookmakers try to even out their liability for the games. Ie - if everyone bets on Liverpool, they'll have a massive liability on the Liverpool win. Thus they lower the odds to compensate, and up the Tottenham odds so the potential losses aren't as big. That's what I've heard, anyway :)

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Yes, I appreciate that Jenspm..... but with all the experience behind the big bookies, you think they would be able to anticipate more accurately the volume of bets to be placed at any particular odds, and that they wouldn't have to make these significant adjustments.... but I suppose punters are notoriously unpredictable "animals" :eyes By the way, Jenspm... I'll send you that information by email today or tomorrow ;)

[relf]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Congrats on your Liverpool pick! :clap Just watched Blackburn 4-6 defeat to Villa. Thought Blackburn did well, and perhaps might even won it if they had 11 men on the pitch. But oh well, that's life.

[Grex]

[relf]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Yeah, it was a red card for sure, but I was pretty surprised to see a Blackburn side that could play so well (apart from the slight collapse in the middle part :unsure). If they could play like that week in week out, I'm optimistic of a mid-table finish for them. Anyway, weekend's approaching next but I guess it will be a quiet one for your systems.

[BeXXs]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Gratz on the good start Grex. Im curious to know how your shot-system works. I guess its based on the assumption that a team that creates more chances is more likely to win the game, right? How many past games do you take into account for the calculation of a teams 'shots-on-target-value', and how do weight the relative opponents strength in these games? Or am i completely wrong and your system works in a different way?

[Grex]

Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Yes, it looks as though there will only be one selection for the "Short-priced Home Favourites" system.... Genoa-Atalanta... but Pinnacle haven't announced the odds yet, so I'll have to keep you all in suspense.... don't lose any sleep over it :lol