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Rushian

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About Rushian

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 12/01/1975

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  1. Re: Maths help - Possibly using Binomial My fault. "1-BINOMDIST(3;24;0.05;1)" gives you the probability of more than 3 (i.e. 4 or more). You wanted the probability of "3 or more" which means that the right formula is: "=1-BINOMDIST(2;24;0.05;1)" which is 11.6%. This agrees with your webpage. I'll amend my previous post accordingly so that there is no future confusion.
  2. Re: Maths help - Possibly using Binomial Assuming the matches are independent (i.e. one ending in a 2-2 draw does not increase or decrease the chances of another ending in a 2-2- draw), then the probability of having exactly k matches ending in a 2-2 draw are given by: P(k) = p^k * (1-p)^(n-k) * n! / [(n-k)! * k!] where: n = total number of matches k = exact number of 2-2 draws p = chance of a 2-2 draw and n! = n * (n-1) * (n-2) * ... * 2 * 1 So if you wanted exactly 3 out of 24 matches ending in 2-2 the probability would be: P(k=3) = 0.05^3 * 0.95^21 * 24! / (21! * 3!) = 0.0862 = 8.62% In excel this is given by "=BINOMDIST(3;24;0.05;0)" If you wanted at least 3 matches, it's the same as subtracting the chance of having less than 3 matches (i.e. at most 2) from 100%. This is given in Excel using: "=100% - BINOMDIST(2;24;0.05;1)" which is equal to 11.6%. Hope this helps :ok
  3. Re: Poland Ekstraklasa 2010/2011 That's great kulikTS! Thanks a lot and good luck to you, too!! :clap
  4. Re: Poland Ekstraklasa 2010/2011 I was looking for some match statistics and came across the following: I don't speak a word of Polish, but using common sense and Google, I think I managed to understand that: 51-39 must be the possession (in minutes) 10-12 must be the fouls 6-4 must be the shots ON target (?) 2-3 must be the shots OFF target (?) 6-7 (I have no idea!) 1-0 (I have no idea!) Can someone who speaks the language let me know if any of the above are right and let me know of what the last two stats indicate? I would also appreciate if someone could tell me what the Polish term for "corners" is. Thanks in advance, Rushian :ok
  5. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 328 bets, 173% return / corner stak In that case, I read that as the utmost act of respect from the bookies to your punting ability bar closing your account! If by placing a 5 pounds bet (with the bookies maximum liability being something like 50 pounds, but mosti likely around the 10-20 pounds mark) you move the lines, then kudos to you! :clap Of course it also means that they are basically employing you to correct their lines at minimum cost, but that's another matter... ;)
  6. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 328 bets, 173% return / corner stak I just had the following thought: in an earlier post I had assumed that the spreads move as soon as you placed your bet. This would suggest that the spread books are indeed monitoring your bets and adjusting the lines accordingly (since, based on your stakes, it wouldn't be the size of your bets which would shift the lines but the accuracy). However, if after you have placed your bet and before posting it on here, the lines have not moved then it would be safe to assume that what pushes the lines is the volume of the people following you. Have you monitored the lines immediately after placing your bet in relation to the time you post on here? By the way, I don't have spreadbetting accounts so I'm not placing any bets on these selections ... but maybe I should have done so :clap
  7. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 327 bets, 170% return / corner sta I don't understand exactly how the stop-loss works so apologies if this is a stupid remark, but wouldn't any potential profits also be limited to at most 5, if the stop loss was 5? In such a case, would the yield still be "huge" as you state?
  8. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets +25% yield Can't you split the data that you have in an estimation dataset and a validation dataset? This will give you a dataset which is "unknown" to your estimates? Or am I missing something?
  9. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets +25% yield Whatever the best way of evaluating the system's performance is, I wouldn't think that you should be disappointed at only 7% yield. On the contrary, since this is a completely automated system (automated in the sense that there is no human input / interference - it's a number-based system), anything in the region of 10% would sound about right for a pretty good system which outperforms the bookies. The bookies may be mispricing the match corners but their model wouldn't be so far off to give you a 20+% yield, based on numbers alone, my gut feeling says.
  10. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets +25% yield I have no idea how statisticians measure it, and, not being a spread-bet punter myself, I haven't got a clue as to how the professional punters are doing it either... If any of us knew, we wouldn't be having this discussion ;) Based on your figures, yes, that would be the 7% that was calculated based on clay's suggestion approximately. I say "approximately" because the stake size per point is not the same across all bets. To get the exact figure you would have, I think to look at stake size and price for each bet. So for example, let's say you have two spread buys. €1 per point above 11 and €2 per point above 9.5. Let's say that the matches end with 15 and 9 corners respectively. Then (and someone, do correct me if I'm wrong), your overall yield would be: ((15-11)*1 + (9-9.5)*2) / (11*1 + 9.5*2) = 3/30 = +10% (15-11)* is the profit from bet 1, (9-9.5)*2 is the profit (loss) from bet 2, and the denominator is your "starting" position across all bets. Does anyone agree with this?
  11. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets +25% yield muppet, while reading your post which suggested that your 323 bets would be equivalent to 50-50 even money shots, I immediately thought of the fact that you could be having huge or small wins or losses, and just by looking at the strike rate, you would be missing that information. I see that clay has already covered that, so I would just say that I agree with him there. What I would also add is that your method of calculating yield which, as you explain in your first post, is: misses an important bit of information which is the size of profit/loss compared to the level of the spread prices. To explain myself better consider the following (imaginary) scenario: Two matches involving very different teams and the bookies expect the corners in match A to be between 9-10 whereas in match B they expect the corners to be between 4-5 (I know that this is a silly example, but it's just for illustrative purposes). If you bought corners at both matches at €1 per corner, and in match A the corners ended being 11 whereas in match B there were 6 corners (so in both cases you made a €1 profit), intuitively shouldn't the yield for match B be higher than for match A? My personal opinion is that it should, mainly because an additional corner in match B (where the spread was 4-5) seems more unlikely, according to the bookies, to happen than in match A. So, the value of that additional corner in match B should be higher than the value of the extra corner in match A. But considering the fact that in both cases the profit in absolute terms is just €1, this increased value must somehow be represented. And this would be done through clay's calculation of yield (in case A the yield will be 10% and in case B it will be 20%). I hope this makes sense...
  12. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 322 bets +24% yield Clay, that's a very interesting post, thanks! Would it be then true that if we were to look at selling the runs for 10p, and the match ends with 351 runs, the yield would be 10p x (390-351) / (10p x 390) = +10% ? muppet, have you tried calculating the yield using clay's way above? It would be interesting to see how different (if at all) the yield would turn out to be. Merry Christmas to everyone!
  13. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 315 bets +24% yield I don't think it's that surprising. They are obviously currently indirectly employing muppet's system... What I mean is that, they are "paying" muppet a wage (i.e. his profit) and use the info from his selections to adjust the lines. If muppet's stakes are reasonably low (and as a result his profits are not excessive) then it's not probably worth the hassle of trying to improve their way of pricing a market since muppet is indirectly doing it for them. And as you correctly point out, they are probably winning on those punters following muppet in irrespective of the slashed odds - which may not provide value. I think. :unsure
  14. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. muppet, following your decision, I was browsing this thread and was looking at the posts form the past month or so. What surprised me was the sudden change of heart that you had within this last month. You started with lots of excitement for the new season around mid August, which quickly seemed to have evaporated. This has coincided with a drop of performance in your system. Was this the real reason behind your decision, rather than the logistics of placing the bets? What I'm trying to get at, is that all systems (even the best ones) have losing periods. And of course, those are indeed the periods where we often question ourselves, question our systems and everything else. But, one really has to see the bigger picture. If a system has been backtested for a reasonable amount of time and has been profitable both in that validation period and when going live, then there is no real reason to believe that it suddenly went bad. It's probably just randomness. That would be my 2p worth of advice. Good luck with your fixed odds accumulators! P.S It would be better if you updated your figures one last time so that the final results were available for future reference!
  15. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 298 bets +24% yield. Thanks clay. And can you set the stop loss at different values depending on the bets? So if you are selling corners it could be at 10 corners but if your selling total goal minutes it could be something different e.g 75 minutes?