Grex Posted February 9, 2010 Author Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? ..... And congratulations for your results! The home teams are certainly doing very well! :lol Yes, Relf, the home wins for this season are way above the average for the past 10 seasons..... see "Short-priced Home Favourites" thread for more details. Let's hope the statistical "blip" continues :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 10, 2010 Share Posted February 10, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Well done! Seems like (1) is doing really well! Took a look at the last 2 rounds of EPL - it's 14 home wins, 6 draws, and ZERO away wins. That takes the Home Win to 52.0% this season. It's running so high above expectations that it makes me worry. :unsure Well, let's hope it would not stop anytime soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2010 Author Share Posted February 10, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? You're right, Relf..... System 1's performance to date is W8 L1..... but it is early days. The percentage of home wins in the EPL is totally out of line with the previous 10 seasons. I can't come up with an explanation.... just one of those statistical anomalies ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MedimeX Posted February 10, 2010 Share Posted February 10, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Grex you should rename your heading to 4 Systems are better than 1 :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 11, 2010 Share Posted February 11, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 11, 2010 Author Share Posted February 11, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Very interesting statistics, Relf...... these figures would also go a long way to explaining the success of the "Short-priced Home Favourites" system...... most of the teams that command home odds of between 1.45 and 1.80 are from the top half of the league table. Do you have time to do a similar statistical exercise for Italy Serie A ? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 11, 2010 Share Posted February 11, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 12, 2010 Author Share Posted February 12, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Thanks again for your hard work, Relf.... although there is a downward trend in the "Diff" as you go down the league, I would agree that it's probably not significant. The EPL has shut up shop this weekend, so there won't be any selections :(..... however, it would seem that the two mid-week games will both be selected, unless the odds change significantly. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 12, 2010 Author Share Posted February 12, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Grex you should rename your heading to 4 Systems are better than 1 :lol Good point, Medimex...... correction made :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MedimeX Posted February 12, 2010 Share Posted February 12, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? hey Grex. congratulations on the good start! 33% after 26 picks at least lets you know you may have something here. 1 question I was hoping you could help with, how do you insert these excel spreadsheets into posts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Simple copy and paste normally works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? you're going to have to use Internet Explorer, though. I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? you're going to have to use Internet Explorer, though. I think. Definitely...... with Firefox you will lose all the formatting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 19, 2010 Author Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? .... and the good news is that Lawro agrees with all 5 selections :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 20, 2010 Share Posted February 20, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Good luck with your selections! Man City and Wigan look dangerous to me, but then you will never know. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 20, 2010 Author Share Posted February 20, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Good luck with your selections! Man City and Wigan look dangerous to me' date=' but then you will never know. ;)[/quote'] Thanks for the good wishes, Relf...... I said previously that Lawro agreed with all my selections - but, I made a mistake.... in fact, he predicts 2-2 for Man City :(..... but 2-1 for Wigan :D. Shall we see at about 6.00pm Sunday UK time :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Good luck with your selections! Man City and Wigan look dangerous to me' date=' but then you will never know. ;)[/quote'] You were spot on, Relf :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Oh, it was just a gut feeling on first look... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? I'm here with gut feeling again. Haha. No major concerns, but Everton seems to be in good form and I'll worry a little with the Tottenham bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? ..... No major concerns' date=' but Everton seems to be in good form and I'll worry a little with the Tottenham bet.[/quote'] Yes, Everton must have been on a high after thrashing United last weekend :cry.... however, their exit from the Europa League at the hands of Sporting Lisbon has probably deflated them a bit... shall we see :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? .... and the good news is that Lawro agrees with all 5 selections :clap:clap:clap .... that was last week's selections..... and guess what.... he's done it again.... he agrees with this week's 3 selections :loon. I wonder if Lawro looks at this thread before he makes his predictions :rollin Mind you, the news about Tottenham's team being hit by a "bug" is not good news - the odds have lengthened to 2.10 :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Not sure if you have heard of it, Petr Cech will be out for a month as well. So Hilario will be the goalkeeper I guess. Not sure it affects the confidence of the punters though. I've layed Man City to finish in the Top 4 one week ago, so I'll be skipping this match. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Not sure if you have heard of it' date=' Petr Cech will be out for a month as well. So Hilario will be the goalkeeper I guess. Not sure it affects the confidence of the punters though. I've layed Man City to finish in the Top 4 one week ago, so I'll be skipping this match. :tongue2[/quote'] Yes, I heard the news... but I think Hilario is a capable "reserve", and Chelsea have enough fire-power to overcome a relatively poor Man City side. Good luck with Blackburn at the weekend.... a difficult match, but who knows.... despite their recent improvement, Liverpool are still rather unpredictable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 27, 2010 Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Thanks for the luck, I think they would need it. 4 home wins in a row, which more or less guaranteed Blackburn's safety this season, so I believe this would ease some pressure off the players and they could play without worries and (hopefully) perform better. On the other hand, Liverpool had a midweek match to overcome so there might be match fatigue. Interestingly, even though Blackburn's current form is better than Liverpool's, Liverpool's home record is far superior than Blackburn's away record. I heard they might have Torres back too. Not sure if the odds represent value, I'm tempted to put small stakes on Blackburn win, but my head says no. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Yes' date= I heard the news... but I think Hilario is a capable "reserve", and Chelsea have enough fire-power to overcome a relatively poor Man City side..... I think I got my "analysis" slightly wrong :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 27, 2010 Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Out of curiosity, I went to dig up the statistics and found out that the last time Chelsea conceded 4 goals in the EPL was in 2002/03 season at Charlton. As for Stamford Bridge, it was 2000/01 season - Chelsea 2 Sunderland 4. Cech conceded 8 goals in 12 home matches, while Hilario conceded 4 goals in 2 matches this season (he played in Chelsea's 2-0 win over Liverpool earlier). Let's hope the other 2 selections would make up the loss. :hope Edit: I just found out that Aston Villa drew 4-4 with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in December 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 28, 2010 Author Share Posted February 28, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 28, 2010 Share Posted February 28, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Unfortunate that your one loss was the greatest stake and the likeliest to win :\ but you broke even for the weekend and still have a very good Yield. keep it up :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: 4 Systems are better than 1 ?? Thanks, Ofcourseitwas.... the Chelsea result was indeed unfortunate (unless you're a Man City supporter ;)). The staking system based on achieving a bet profit of 5% of the running bank is producing a yield of 22.9%. Using stakes of 5% of the running bank would only have produced a yield of 18.5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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