Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

[fintron]

I got a copy of Dave Nevison's Gamblers Diary for Christmas and it has given me a bit of impetus to try with the true value approach again. I have a method of betting that suits me for the jumps handicap chases and I have a way of betting that suits me for turf, but on the all-weather I have struggled of late, as I did towards the back end of last season. It was clear to me that the methods I use for turf are not immediately transferrable to the AW, so I am going to try my luck with a thread for flat bets that looks for true value - you draw up a tissue and identify selections if they are available at prices bigger than you think they should be. I aim to work to the error margin Nevsion talks of in his second book - 15 %. I may be a little flexible on this at times but the overall aim is to cut down on the number of bets I have in 2010 and this margin will hopefully help do that. My overall betting aims for 2010: 1) Become more selective 2) Up my stakes on horses I am really confident about 3) Spend less time overall studying racing (with a thesis to write up and a baby on the way I need to cut back on form study overall), however, spend more time researching each-individual race. I think drawing up a tissue requires indepth study, and that is why I have elected this as my method of choice for this thread. The plan is to trial this on the AW until the flat kicks in again, and then I will hopefully have the option of sticking with it through the turf season or will pack it in and pick back up the flat methods from 2009. Staking is the issue I am unsure of at the minute. To start with I'll go with a 1-12 point scale.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Bet 1: 4.45 Wolverhampton My prices to beat: Imprimis Tagula 11/2, Earlsmedic 13/2, Capone 7/1, Orpenindeed 8/1, Five Star Junior 17/2, Ebraam 11/1, Matsunosuke 13/1, Rain Rush 14/1, Flowing Cape 16/1, Tom's Laugher 20/1, Smokey Ryder 22/1, Mrs Penny 25/1 Five Star Junior is a 12/1 chance with VC Bet so I am taking that as my first bet as I think he should be around the 17/2 mark. This price was taken following the withdrawl of 7/1 shot Orpenindeed so I don't expect to be hit with a Rule 4 on that, and although Rain Rush has been pulled out since the bet was struck he was at prices ranging from 16/1 to 33/1 at the point of withdrawl and I'd be disappointed if I lost anything for that. Each-way terms remain unaltered at 3 places, 1/5 odds, ten runners now face the starter.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 2 pts EW on Five Star Junior.

[peteg40]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Good Luck with this Fin:hope..... will follow with much interest ;):ok

[markmywords]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Sorry to mar your thread fin I opted for your selection last night and got 28/1 with betfair. I am new to betfair does that mean I am guaranteed that price or what it goes at? Apologies good luck with your thread and new year with the family.

[mr shrewdie]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Good luck fin. :hope markmywords; your price will be deducted by a percentage figure, go back into your bets and see. :ok

[chris34]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Good luck fin will be a very interesting thread to follow!!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Not got much interest in the all weather myself, but with this a value thread will follow it with interest. To give you something to think about Fin: Trouble with level stakes is it does not matter much what your short priced horses do, but does matter greatly what big priced horses do. On the other hand doing it to win the same stake makes the opposite true. Last year I was backing the same points as percentage chance but found the best value (in true odds terms) bets should've had more on them. So now add 1 point for every percentage point above my price to beat as well. So something I believe has a 25% chance with a best price of 4/1 (20%), will have 25 points (for being a (imo) true 25% chance, plus 5 points for the difference between 25% and 20% = total stake of 30 points @ 4/1. It may also be an idea for you to find out about "Kelly" staking, not sure what it is but have heard it takes in to account how much value is in each bet. Whatever the stakes Fin, Good luck. :ok

[RussP]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Looks like you've been converted....well done Ginge;) Seriously.....good luck Fin, hope it works out mate:ok

[TheRat]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Good luck mate :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Bet 1: 4.45 Wolverhampton My prices to beat: Imprimis Tagula 11/2, Earlsmedic 13/2, Capone 7/1, Orpenindeed 8/1, Five Star Junior 17/2, Ebraam 11/1, Matsunosuke 13/1, Rain Rush 14/1, Flowing Cape 16/1, Tom's Laugher 20/1, Smokey Ryder 22/1, Mrs Penny 25/1 Five Star Junior is a 12/1 chance with VC Bet so I am taking that as my first bet as I think he should be around the 17/2 mark. This price was taken following the withdrawl of 7/1 shot Orpenindeed so I don't expect to be hit with a Rule 4 on that, and although Rain Rush has been pulled out since the bet was struck he was at prices ranging from 16/1 to 33/1 at the point of withdrawl and I'd be disappointed if I lost anything for that. Each-way terms remain unaltered at 3 places, 1/5 odds, ten runners now face the starter.

Sent off at an SP of 17/2 and travelled really well, looking nailed on for a place 1f out before just fading into nothing inside the final furlong - really strange one. The race was won by Imprimis Tagula, identified as the most likely winner. For my future reference the SPs and result was:

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	11		Imprimis Tagula (IRE) (ex6)	8-10 v	Declan Cannon (7)	A Bailey	5	9/2
		close up, led inside final furlong, driven out opened 4/1
2	12	hd	Ebraam (USA)	9-1 t1	R Winston	S Curran	6	6/1
		prominent, stayed on final furlong, held near finish opened 8/1 touched 5/1
3	2	½	Matsunosuke	9-5	A Culhane	A B Coogan	7	18/1
		held up, headway over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong opened 16/1 touched 20/1
4	10	nse	Flowing Cape (IRE)	8-8 t1	P Pickard (5)	R Hollinshead	4	14/1
		led, headed inside final furlong, no extra opened 11/1
5	1	¾	Earlsmedic	8-8 e	Ryan Clark (7)	S C Williams	4	10/3 jf
		held up in touch, one pace inisde final furlong opened 4/1 touched 9/2
6	9	nk	Capone (IRE) (ex6)	8-6	Hayley Turner	R Curtis	4	10/3 jf
		held up, stayed on from over 1f out opened 7/2
7	5	1½	Five Star Junior (USA)	9-4	S W Kelly	Mrs L Stubbs	3	17/2
		prominent, weakened inside final furlong touched 10/1
8	3	2½	Mrs Penny (AUS)	8-4 b1	Luke Morris	J Gask	5	17/2
		held up, effort over 2f out, weakened over 1f out opened 9/1 touched 11/1
9	7	5	Toms Laughter	8-5 b	Liam Jones	R Harris	5	20/1
		slowly into stride, in rear, tracked leaders over 3f out, weakened final furlong
10	6	3¾	Smokey Ryder	8-10	K Ghunowa	R Harris	3	50/1
		close up, ridden and weakened 2f out
Non-Runners
NR			Rain Rush (IRE)	9-3	P Makin	D Marnane	6
NR			Orpenindeed (IRE)	8-7	J Quinn	M Botti	6

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Thanks for all the good luck messages lads, much appreciated. Markmywords, RE your question about the price on Betfair. If Five Star JUnior had won you would have been paid at the price you took, less any reduction factors imposed as a result of non-runners. These are betfairs equivalent of rule 4 deductions. If there are no non-runners then you simply get paid at the price you took on Betfair. Bookies are different in that if you back with a firm that offer best odds guarantee, and you take a price in the morning or whenever, they will pay you out at the SP if the horse drifts inbetween the time you take a price and the off. On betfair you don't get that advantage, but generally get better odds than with a firm anyway when you take a price. Mr Shrewdie, the price I took was in the first reformed market after Orpenindeed had been withdrawl. There would have been a 10p R4 on that (according to William Hill, VC bet who I bet with today don't say on their site but most are the same) but if I had backed before that non-runner but I got on after that. The Irish horse was withdrawn after I struck my bet but the odds were anywhere between 16/1 and 33/1 from firm to firm and then they are that big, most firms don't apply a R4, Hills for example didn't today, so had Five Star Junior won, Id have been paid at 12's. Ginge, I had three ideas for staking. Increase stakes the bigger the discrepency from my tissue, stake according to the percentage chance on my tissue, or stake on feel, within a scale. I opted for the latter so will just see how it goes, and can always work it back for comparative purposes with the other methods and reevaluate several bets down the line I think. Russ, I can't buy a winner on the AW at the minute so thought I'd give this a go. Jumps wise and flat wise I am happy I have a method to follow but on the AW I have been struggling and I wanted to give this a trial. It all makes perfect sense in theory, I will find out in the coming months If I can price up the races properly, If I can't the thread will get canned as the method won't work.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Good Luck with this fin :hope

[peteg40]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Sorry Fin, bit off topic :$:$ But is Dave Nevison's Gamblers Diary a good read and worth buying ??

[mowgli77]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 I have a question - what happens with drifters in the market, do you avoid them or back them or only take prices well in advance of the race? For example a horse you have as a 4-1 chance opens about that 4-1 but drifts to around 8-1, do you leave it alone, drift is a negative or do you back it, 8-1 now becomes value? :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Sorry Fin, bit off topic :$:$ But is Dave Nevison's Gamblers Diary a good read and worth buying ??

Its pretty much a continuation of the first one really, have you read that? He doesn't give much insight into how he actually forms his opinions on runners, just gives examples of how much he has staked on certain runners, what price he thought they should be and what price they were etc, but I still enjoy reading his book for an insight into the life of a pro. IMO, its not as good as his first book, although I am only a third of the way through this one so far. I also got Veitch's book for Xmas and looking forward to reading that. From talking to Mowgli on it it sounds like he is a major major player, staking tends of thousands on some runners :loon

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

I have a question - what happens with drifters in the market' date=' do you avoid them or back them or only take prices well in advance of the race? For example a horse you have as a 4-1 chance opens about that 4-1 but drifts to around 8-1, do you leave it alone, drift is a negative or do you back it, 8-1 now becomes value? :ok[/quote'] Good question, and not totally sure on an answer at this stage. Most of my prices will be taken first thing in the morning, as I aim to draw up the tissues the night before to save time on race days. I will still keep an eye on the market through the day though if possible and may end up going back in after market drifts. I suppose I will have to consider each case of merit and try and ascetain why its drifted. Has it not run for a long time and trainer has no confidence for it on comeback? Or is it an outsider that is drifting because the favourites are getting steamed? I suppose the time of the drift matters too, in the final half hour of the race more of a worry than in the morning, as it may reflect one thats paraded badly etc?

[alexmac]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 All the best for this mate. Hope it bodes for a profitable 2010 for you :)

[mowgli77]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Good question' date=' and not totally sure on an answer at this stage. Most of my prices will be taken first thing in the morning, as I aim to draw up the tissues the night before to save time on race days. I will still keep an eye on the market through the day though if possible and may end up going back in after market drifts. I suppose I will have to consider each case of merit and try and ascetain why its drifted. Has it not run for a long time and trainer has no confidence for it on comeback? Or is it an outsider that is drifting because the favourites are getting steamed? I suppose the time of the drift matters too, in the final half hour of the race more of a worry than in the morning, as it may reflect one thats paraded badly etc?[/quote'] On the flip side of that read Veitch's book and you'll see how he keeps backing horses even though their odds are tumbling. If he fancies a horse he will set a price he'll back it at, for example 8-1, no lower than that. It might open at 16's, he'll steam in, it goes 14's, back it again, 12's and again, 10's and in again and then leave it when down at 8's. Read about the 100-1 winner he backed down to all sorts of prices, made the newspapers that one. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

On the flip side of that read Veitch's book and you'll see how he keeps backing horses even though their odds are tumbling. If he fancies a horse he will set a price he'll back it at' date=' for example 8-1, no lower than that. It might open at 16's, he'll steam in, it goes 14's, back it again, 12's and again, 10's and in again and then leave it when down at 8's. Read about the 100-1 winner he backed down to all sorts of prices, made the newspapers that one. :ok[/quote'] Looking forward to reading it. :ok Cheers Alex too. Two bets for today, both at Southwell. 1.20 Southwell My prices to beat Equuleus Pictor 5/2, Colorus 4/1, Rebel Duke 6/1, Tourist 10/1, Peak District 11/1, Canadian Danehill 12/1, Pawan 14/1, Fitz Flyer 20/1 Two best stand out on the book, Colorus and Equuleus Pictor, but the discrepency is biggest on the first and that is who I fancy strongest anyway and installed as my tissue fav. He caught my eye when chasing home the inform Lesley's Choice over course and distance last time out and remains competitively weighted with the usual. Jack Dean riding as usual. 10/3 Stan James, 8 pts win. 1.55 Southwell Prices to beat: Sunny Spells 9/2, Full Toss 13/2, Calculating 7/1, Clear Reef 7/1, Outrageous Request 8/1, Dunaskin 12/1, Berntley Brook 14/1, Chocolate Caramel 16/1, Victory Quest 18/1, Bushy Dell 25/1, Tenjack King 33/1. My gut instinct on this race was that Outrageous Request may be a bet this morning. I like his unexposed profile and sent handicapping/upped in trip he looks sure to go well. Soft turf firm offers encouragement that he will act on this surface, however, I thought the 7/1 on offer with Bet 365 may be bettered this morning, and it hasn't. He is now a best priced 13/2 and with me looking to take 15 % bigger prices than those on my tissue he is annoying a no bet. I have to stick to the system though to make this a proper trial and if I ignore the likes of Bentley Brook (14/1 on my tissue, 16's avil) and Chocolate Caramel (16/1 on tissue, 20/1 avail) who are only marginally better than my tissue odds, Full Toss is the bet. David Evans has a knack of getting more out of failed horses from old yards, claimed this one and he won here last time out staying on well to win. This step up in trip will help and I think its wise turning him out under a penalty as his mark will be lofty when reassessed. He isn't yet proven over this far but I make him a 13/2 chance against more exposed sorts, and have been able to take 8/1 with Stan James this morning. 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 1.20 Southwell Colorus is a drifter and now want him onside as a saver. 15/2 Blue Sq, 1 pt win. He usually runs a race here, aquitted himself well racing from out of the handicap recently, is back in the handicap proper today.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Not a good day so far I'm afraid, both selections seemed to be going well enough but were no match for the winners. Equuleus Pictor was going well from the front in the sprint but faded into third behind a dubious photo decision that saw Rebel Duke declared second from the long term absentee Fitz Flyer. In the stayers race Outrageous Request was smashed into 11/4 ish but Clear Reef held on well under Shane Kelly. Full Toss looked to be going well 3f out as they turned for home but ended up back in fourth. Final bet for today. 3.35 Southwell My prices to beat (Argentine a non-runner so 12 go to post): Cheap Thrills 13/2, Harlech Castle 7/1, Onceuponatime 8/1, Restless Genius 9/1, Bo McGinty 10/1, Danum Dancer 11/1, Stanley Goodspeed 12/1, Naogh Geilis 14/1, Madison Belle 16/1, Final Salute 18/1, Kyle 20/1, Gentle Guru 25/1. I think Cheap Thrills should be the favourite here. Some firms have him 7/1 jt second fav but Stan James are laying him at 12/1 and I think that represents really good value for a horse that won a claimer over course and distance last time out and who placed off a 3 lb higher mark in handicaps recently behind Hellbender (form franked when winner followed up nto). It isn't an overly strong race, most of these lack inconsistency, but unexposed over this course and distance the Osbourne runner may be worth chancing in his bid for a follow up. I rate some of his recent performances better than the bare margins of defeat show, and if Shane Kelly can get his fractions correct then he could go close at a big price. 12/1 SJ, 9 pts win, 3 pts place (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

1.20 Southwell My prices to beat Equuleus Pictor 5/2, Colorus 4/1, Rebel Duke 6/1, Tourist 10/1, Peak District 11/1, Canadian Danehill 12/1, Pawan 14/1, Fitz Flyer 20/1 Two best stand out on the book, Colorus and Equuleus Pictor, but the discrepency is biggest on the first and that is who I fancy strongest anyway and installed as my tissue fav. He caught my eye when chasing home the inform Lesley's Choice over course and distance last time out and remains competitively weighted with the usual. Jack Dean riding as usual. 10/3 Stan James, 8 pts win.

Looked to be going well before hanging right 1f out and couldn't go with the winners. Colorus (saver) in the same race was nowhere, so a 9 pt loss on that race. Full result:

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	7		Fitz Flyer (IRE)	9-4	P Makin	D H Brown	3	8/1
		chased leaders, ridden 2f out, ran on inside final furlong to lead post opened 7/1 touched 13/2
2	5	nse	Rebel Duke (IRE)	8-13	B McHugh (5)	Ollie Pears	5	7/2 jf
		always prominent, ridden over 1f out, led inside final furlong, headed post opened 4/1 touched 9/2
3	3	1	Equuleus Pictor	8-13	J Dean (3)	J L Spearing	5	7/2 jf
		led, ridden and hung right over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra close home opened 5/2 £1100-£400
4	8	1¼	Tourist	8-9	R Winston	D Shaw	4	7/1
		slowly into stride and not much room soon after start, in rear, headway and switched left over 1f out, not trouble leaders opened 8/1 touched 6/1
5	1	2¾	Pawan (IRE)	8-7 b	Ann Stokell (5)	Miss A Stokell	9	12/1
		slowly into stride, outpaced, never near leaders opened 16/1 touched 18/1
6	4	1	Canadian Danehill (IRE)	9-1 p	G Gibbons	R M H Cowell	7	12/1
		chased leaders, outpaced 3f out, soon in rear
7	6	½	Colorus (IRE)	8-4 p	Kelly Harrison (3)	W J H Ratcliffe	6	13/2
		prominent, ridden over 2f out, hung left and weakened over 1f out opened 8/1 touched 6/1
8	2	3½	Peak District (IRE)	9-0	A Ryan (5)	K A Ryan	5	5/1
		slowly into stride, always towards rear opened 13/2

1.55 Southwell Prices to beat: Sunny Spells 9/2, Full Toss 13/2, Calculating 7/1, Clear Reef 7/1, Outrageous Request 8/1, Dunaskin 12/1, Berntley Brook 14/1, Chocolate Caramel 16/1, Victory Quest 18/1, Bushy Dell 25/1, Tenjack King 33/1. My gut instinct on this race was that Outrageous Request may be a bet this morning. I like his unexposed profile and sent handicapping/upped in trip he looks sure to go well. Soft turf firm offers encouragement that he will act on this surface, however, I thought the 7/1 on offer with Bet 365 may be bettered this morning, and it hasn't. He is now a best priced 13/2 and with me looking to take 15 % bigger prices than those on my tissue he is annoying a no bet. I have to stick to the system though to make this a proper trial and if I ignore the likes of Bentley Brook (14/1 on my tissue, 16's avil) and Chocolate Caramel (16/1 on tissue, 20/1 avail) who are only marginally better than my tissue odds, Full Toss is the bet. David Evans has a knack of getting more out of failed horses from old yards, claimed this one and he won here last time out staying on well to win. This step up in trip will help and I think its wise turning him out under a penalty as his mark will be lofty when reassessed. He isn't yet proven over this far but I make him a 13/2 chance against more exposed sorts, and have been able to take 8/1 with Stan James this morning. 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

Another one that seemed to be going really well turning for home but faded inside the final furlong. Given I had acted on a drift in backing Colorus as a saver in the first race and it had lost I ignored Clear Reef despite the fact both he and Bentley Brook looked good bets on my tissue. Outrageous Request was steamed and took second, that would have rubber salt into the wounds if that one had gone in.

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	3		Clear Reef	10-0 p	S W Kelly	Jane Chapple-Hyam	5	12/1
		held up in rear, smooth headway 3f out, switched left 2f out, soon led, stayed on well opened 9/1 £1800-£200 Each Way
2	10	2	Outrageous Request	9-4	T Atkinson (7)	Pat Eddery	3	11/4
		raced keenly, tracked leaders, ridden over 3f out, every chance well over 1f out, edged right entering final furlong, stayed on opened 7/2
3	5	1¾	Sunny Spells (ex6)	8-12	W A Carson (3)	S C Williams	4	5/2 f
		held up towards rear, headway 4f out, ridden over 3f out, stayed on same pace final furlong opened 9/4 touched 11/4
4	11	3¼	Full Toss (ex6)	10-4	J-P Guillambert	P D Evans	3	7/1
		prominent, pulled hard, ridden and every chance 2f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 8/1
5	6	½	Bushy Dell (IRE)	9-2	Amy Baker (5)	Miss J Feilden	4	40/1
		led 1f, pressed leader, led over 3f out, headed well over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 33/1
6	1	6	Dunaskin (IRE)	9-12 e	T Eaves	B Ellison	9	14/1
		led after 1f, headed over 3f out, weakened over 1f out opened 11/1 touched 10/1
7	9	1	Calculating (IRE)	9-2	L Newnes (5)	M D I Usher	5	9/2
		slowly into stride, held up, pushed along 5f out, never on terms opened 6/1 £2000-£400 £1800-£400
8	8	19	Chocolate Caramel (USA)	9-11	T Hamilton	R A Fahey	7	18/1
		held up towards rear, headway over 4f out, weakened over 3f out opened 16/1
9	4	20	Bentley Brook (IRE)	9-8	A Culhane	R Curtis	7	28/1
		held up in rear, well beaten 4f out, tailed off opened 22/1
10	2	dist	Tenjack King	9-7	L Keniry	Joss Saville	4	100/1
		mid-division, pushed along 8f out, soon in rear, behind 5f out, tailed off opened 66/1
11	7	dist	Victory Quest (IRE)	9-1 v	R Winston	Mrs S Lamyman	9	16/1
		chased leaders, ridden and weakened over 4f out, tailed off

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

3.35 Southwell My prices to beat (Argentine a non-runner so 12 go to post): Cheap Thrills 13/2, Harlech Castle 7/1, Onceuponatime 8/1, Restless Genius 9/1, Bo McGinty 10/1, Danum Dancer 11/1, Stanley Goodspeed 12/1, Naogh Geilis 14/1, Madison Belle 16/1, Final Salute 18/1, Kyle 20/1, Gentle Guru 25/1. I think Cheap Thrills should be the favourite here. Some firms have him 7/1 jt second fav but Stan James are laying him at 12/1 and I think that represents really good value for a horse that won a claimer over course and distance last time out and who placed off a 3 lb higher mark in handicaps recently behind Hellbender (form franked when winner followed up nto). It isn't an overly strong race, most of these lack inconsistency, but unexposed over this course and distance the Osbourne runner may be worth chancing in his bid for a follow up. I rate some of his recent performances better than the bare margins of defeat show, and if Shane Kelly can get his fractions correct then he could go close at a big price. 12/1 SJ, 9 pts win, 3 pts place (3 places, 1/4 odds).

Typical result really - looked nailed on for place money to recover the losing win stake but gets touched off into the places by a narrow margin to ensure another loser. I am long overdue a big winner now and by god I am gonna celebrate as time after time I am putting myself in strong trading positions but seeing them beaten and not going on to win. No great surprise to see Harlech Castle win, he was well in on old form and dropped in grade, but the rag getting third was a big shock.

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	7		Harlech Castle	9-4 b	S J Craine	J R Boyle	4	6/1
		opened 9/2
2	10	¾	Onceaponatime (IRE)	8-11	Luke Morris	M D Squance	4	4/1 f
		opened 15/2
3	13	3	Gentle Guru	8-10	S Drowne	R T Phillips	5	25/1
		opened 20/1
4	2	½	Cheap Thrills	8-11	S W Kelly	J A Osborne	3	10/1
		opened 8/1 touched 11/1
5	4	2	Bo McGinty (IRE)	8-8 v	Martin Dwyer	R A Fahey	8	8/1
		opened 9/1 touched 15/2
6	6	¾	Restless Genius (IRE)	8-7	M Lane (3)	B Ellison	4	8/1
		touched 17/2
7	8	hd	Kyle (IRE)	8-6	S Whitworth	C R Dore	5	16/1
		opened 14/1
8	9	nse	Madison Belle	9-2	A Elliott	J R Weymes	3	20/1
		touched 25/1
9	3	2¼	Danum Dancer	8-6 b	J Quinn	N Bycroft	5	11/2
		opened 6/1 touched 5/1
10	11	1½	Final Salute	8-13 v	T Eaves	B Smart	3	12/1
		opened 14/1 touched 11/1
11	5	hd	Stanley Goodspeed	8-4 bt	Liam Jones	J W Hills	6	12/1
		opened 11/1
12	1	8	Naomh Geileis (USA)	8-6 b	J Fanning	M Johnston	4	8/1
		touched 7/1

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Three races interest me today, I'll start with the 8.50 since thats the only race that we have prices for. 8.50 Kempton My prices to beat: Zegna 9/2, Bahamian Lad 5/1, Capone 11/2, Vhujon 6/1, Dvinsky 10/1, Methaaly 12/1, Lujeanie 14/1, Ray of Joy 16/1, Princess Valerina 28/1, Gone Hunting 40/1 Dvinsky is a 16/1 chance with Bet 365 and I think has to be backed at this price. Prolific over course and distance, he has slipped to a mark 1 lb below his gutsy success here over further in October, but he still has the speed to be effective over 6f. He hasn't ran a bad race of late, despite the fact he's rarely had the race run to suit and in this field I think he could bounce back to winning ways. 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 1.55 Lingfield Tamino 4/1, Cavalry Guard 6/1, Diane's Choice 17/2, Imperial Skylight 9/1, Prince Valentine 10/1, Well Of Echoes 12/1, Inquisitress 13/1, Stormburst 16/1, Battimore 25/1, Bold Rose 28/1, Easy Wonder 33/1, Bishopbriggs 40/1, Forever Changes 66/1, Truly Divine 100/1 Holding on for a price on Tamino to see if I can beat the 4/1 Betfred currently offer. 7.20 Kempton Bertoliver 9/4, Excellent Show 7/2, Lord of the Reins 6/1, Littlemisssunshine 15/2, Chjimes 13/1, The Tatling 15/1, Norse Warrior 25/1, Priti Fabulous 28/1 Holding on to see if the 9/4 (Betfred) for Bertoliver can be bettered this morning and will update later if a price is taken.

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Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 1.55 Ling - Sporting Bet standout 9/2 for Tamino and after two non-runners ill take that now in a reformed market. 2 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). Still no drift on Bertoliver, not even on Betfair, so sitting still on that one for now.

1.55 Lingfield Tamino 4/1, Cavalry Guard 6/1, Diane's Choice 17/2, Imperial Skylight 9/1, Prince Valentine 10/1, Well Of Echoes 12/1, Inquisitress 13/1, Stormburst 16/1, Battimore 25/1, Bold Rose 28/1, Easy Wonder 33/1, Bishopbriggs 40/1, Forever Changes 66/1, Truly Divine 100/1 Holding on for a price on Tamino to see if I can beat the 4/1 Betfred currently offer. 7.20 Kempton Bertoliver 9/4, Excellent Show 7/2, Lord of the Reins 6/1, Littlemisssunshine 15/2, Chjimes 13/1, The Tatling 15/1, Norse Warrior 25/1, Priti Fabulous 28/1 Holding on to see if the 9/4 (Betfred) for Bertoliver can be bettered this morning and will update later if a price is taken.

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Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

1.55 Ling - Sporting Bet standout 9/2 for Tamino and after two non-runners ill take that now in a reformed market. 2 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). Still no drift on Bertoliver, not even on Betfair, so sitting still on that one for now.

Well the bad luck continues and another bitter pill to swallow. Tamino settled in third for the best part of the race from an inside draw and let two of the rags dispute the lead, but looked like he was going to win when sent to front inside the final few furlongs. He must have traded heavily at odds on in running and looked all over the winner until the 50/1 rag, who had to be niggled along in the early stages somehow pulled a win out of nowhere and came charging home on the outside to rob him of the win close home. It just sums up how things have gone for me in December. :puke

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	9		Bold Rose	9-0 p	L Newnes (5)	M D I Usher	3	50/1
		towards rear and reminders, well outpaced halfway, stayed on under pressure to lead close home
2	1	½	Tamino (IRE)	8-13	J Quinn	P Howling	6	9/2 jf
		in touch, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra close home opened 10/3
3	4	1¼	Cavalry Guard (USA)	9-0 b	Amy Baker (5)	T D McCarthy	5	13/2
		mid-division, ridden halfway, one pace final 2f opened 6/1 touched 11/2 £3000-£500
4	6	½	Easy Wonder (GER)	8-8 b	M Lane (3)	I A Wood	4	25/1
		towards rear, headway over 2f out, kept on final furlong, never nearer touched 33/1
5	3	hd	Diane's Choice	8-12	Luke Morris	Miss Gay Kelleway	6	8/1
		mid-division, ridden halfway, kept on one pace final furlong opened 15/2 touched 7/1
6	13	¾	Imperial Skylight	9-0 v	C Catlin	M R Channon	3	8/1
		mid-division, ridden over 2f out, kept on one pace final furlong touched 9/1
7	10	nk	Well of Echoes	8-11 pt	A Mullen	A J Mccabe	3	9/2 jf
		chased leaders, ridden halfway, one pace final 2f opened 7/1
8	8	2	Bishopbriggs (USA)	9-0	A Kirby	M G Quinlan	4	12/1
		prominent, led over 2f out, soon ridden and headed, beaten when short of room close home opened 16/1
9	12	nk	Prince Valentine	8-8 p	D Sweeney	G L Moore	8	7/1
		mid-division, ridden over 2f out, soon no impression opened 10/1
10	11	5	Inquisitress	8-12	M Halford (3)	J J Bridger	5	7/1
		always in rear opened 15/2
11	7	2¼	Truly Divine	8-11 v1	S Drowne	C A Dwyer	4	33/1
		led, ridden and headed over 2f out, soon weakened opened 20/1
12	5	dist	Forever Changes	8-10	R Winston	L Montague Hall	4	25/1
		chased leaders, ridden and weakened over 2f out, soon eased touched 33/1

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Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

7.20 Kempton Bertoliver 9/4, Excellent Show 7/2, Lord of the Reins 6/1, Littlemisssunshine 15/2, Chjimes 13/1, The Tatling 15/1, Norse Warrior 25/1, Priti Fabulous 28/1 Holding on to see if the 9/4 (Betfred) for Bertoliver can be bettered this morning and will update later if a price is taken.

I'm unlikely to be able to beat 9/4 for Bertoliver now. He has been well backed all day and currently a best priced 15/8 with Lads and Coral. The rest of the market is moulding to my tissue apart from two - Littlemissunshine who is a best priced 4/1 at present, and Excellent Show. Littlemisssunshine was a fair second last time out to Thoughtsofstardom, but that rival is no worldbeater, and Stan Moore's bottom weight is fairly exposed having won just twice from 21 runs. She probably is capable of finding a race off this mark but the same could have been said many times of late, I'll stick with my original 15/2 price tag and thus the money has to go on Excellent Show, currently available at 5/1 with Victor Chandler. She's not raced as much and is open to a greater level of improvement. Well beaten in the Queen Mary she started life in handicaps off a lofty mark but its dropped down to a more realistic level and her second to Lesley's Choice, (form franked by winner since) on her AW debut reads well. She is up in the weights but still looks the value call of the race in my opinion. 5/1 VC Bet, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

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Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 3.30 Lingfield Final bet of 2009! Autumn Blades 4/1, Poppanan 11/2, Shaded Edge 6/1, Baunagain 13/2, Sunshine Always 15/2, Learo Dochais 9/1, Desert Dreamer 9/1, Lastroarofdtiger 18/1. Ideally I'd wait until a few more firms have priced the race up and given me a few reference points before taking a bet, but I plan to ignore all racing tomorrow so acting now with one I think may be overpriced - the multiple course (on turf) and distance winner Shaded Edge. He never found his favoured position last time out when racing in the rear but prior to that had placed a couple of times off this sort of mark including on the AW, and he is actually back down to his last winning mark. 8/1 Bet 365, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).