Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

12.55 Southwell Caprio 4/1, Prohibition 9/2, Dig Deep 6/1, Elusive Fame 13/2, Hits Only Jude 13/2, Tamasou 11/1, Johnnie Skull 14/1, Follow The Flag 16/1. If the exchanges are anything to go by then Dig Deep (10/1 on Betfair) could be the bet in the morning.....

Dig Deep was backed in (because of the Hugh Taylor factor) but attempting to come from off the pace was well beaten..

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	4		Follow The Flag (IRE)	8-13 p	Declan Cannon (7)	A J Mccabe	6	16/1
		dwelt, soon in touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on under pressure inside final furlong to lead towards finish opened 12/1 £10000-£600
2	8	¾	Elusive Fame (USA)	8-9 b	J Fanning	M Johnston	4	5/1
		tracked leaders, led over 2f out, soon ridden, kept on until headed and no extra towards finish opened 11/2
3	7	2¾	Tamasou (IRE)	9-1	S W Kelly	A J Mccabe	5	11/2
		held up on outside, headway 3f out, ridden and effort over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong opened 5/1 touched 9/2
4	5	4	Jonnie Skull (IRE)	8-4 vt	C Catlin	P S McEntee	4	14/1
		with leader, led 3f out to over 2f out, soon ridden, kept on same pace final furlong opened 12/1
5	6	6	Prohibition (IRE)	9-3	W A Carson (3)	W J Haggas	4	7/2 f
		held up, outpaced 3f out, never on terms opened 9/2 touched 5/1 £1500-£300 £1800-£400 (x2)
6	2	hd	Dig Deep (IRE)	8-12	P Makin	J J Quinn	8	8/1
		behind, ridden over 2f out, never able to challenge opened 7/1 touched 13/2
7	1	3	Caprio (IRE)	9-4	N Mackay	J R Boyle	5	7/1
		chased leaders, driven and outpaced 3f out, weakened over 1f out opened 5/1
8	3	4	Hits Only Jude (IRE)	8-13	D Nolan	D Carroll	7	4/1
		led, headed 3f out, soon ridden, weakened and eased 1f out opened 5/1

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

2.40 Lingfield Erinjay has just pulled out of this race which is a bummer as I had him as a 9/2 chance and he was 11/4, which is gonna take away value in the reformed market. Climate is also a NR. New book: Woolfall Sovereign 3/1, Marmooq 5/1, Chalice Welcome 6/1, Vinces 7/1, Hector Spectre 17/2, Formidable Guest 10/1, Alfie Tupper 14/1, Meydan Dubai 20/1. I think Vinces holds reasonable chances here over a course and distance he acts on. His record to the improving Resentful Angel recently reads well and he remains competitively weighted, only a few pounds higher than previous wins here. 17/2 SJ, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

Another poor choice here with Vinces well held...

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	10		Chalice Welcome	9-4	Hayley Turner	N B King	7	7/2 f
		prominent, led over 2f out, headed well inside final furlong, rallied to regain lead post opened 4/1 touched 9/2 £4500-£1000 £1400-£400 £1050-£300 £1200-£400
2	2	nse	Alfie Tupper (IRE)	8-9	Matthew Davies (5)	J R Boyle	7	6/1
		led early, tracked leader, challenged over 1f out, led well inside final furlong, headed post opened 5/1 touched 9/2 £2200-£400 £1800-£400
3	8	¾	Formidable Guest	8-13	D Sweeney	J Pearce	6	11/1
		held up, headway over 1f out, kept on touched 17/2
4	6	1½	Marmooq	8-12	Luke Morris	M J Attwater	7	5/1
		held up in rear, ridden and headway over 2f out, kept on final furlong touched 6/1
5	9	s.h	Meydan Dubai (IRE)	8-13	M Halford (3)	J R Best	5	16/1
		held up, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong opened 14/1
6	3	hd	Hector Spectre (IRE)	8-10 v	A Heffernan (5)	P D Evans	4	9/2
		tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, soon outpaced opened 15/2
7	4	4½	Vinces	8-13	David Probert	T D McCarthy	6	15/2
		soon led, ridden and headed over 2f out, weakened final furlong touched 8/1
8	5	5	Woolfall Sovereign (IRE)	8-11	S Donohoe	G G Margarson	4	5/1
		held up, effort over 1f out, soon weakened opened 4/1 touched 11/2

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 3.35 Kempton Tripitaka 4/1, Free Tussy 13/2, King Supreme 8/1, Paktolos 9/1, Maslak 10/1, Evident Price 13/1, Dakiyah 14/1, Dreamwalk 16/1, Buddy Holly 20/1, Awatuki 22/1, War of The Roses 22/1, Alaghiraar 40/1, Croix Rouge 80/1. I can see the favourite going well here as he is proven over course and distance and from stall 9 should get himself into a decent racing position upsides the likely leader, Buddy Holly. However, his price is too short in my opinion, with only 5/2 available tonight, so I am chancing Dakiyah. The yard had a recent winner with Mildoura and Dakiyah is a course and distance winner off 7 lbs lower. She has been raised 5 lb for a fifth in listed company last time out but she faced an impossible task at the weights with rivals weighted stones superior, and she seems to be progessing on the all-weather in view of that run. With only seven starts under her belt in this sphere, further improvement could be forthcoming. 20/1 Bet 365, 2 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Glad I posted Dakiyah last night as she is as short as 8/1 this morning! 2.35 Kempton Istiqdaam 5/2, Dinner Date 11/2, Hereford Boy 13/2, Perfect Class 8/1, Mister Green 12/1, Hilbre Court 16/1, Carlitos Spirit 16/1, Prince of Thebes 18/1, Sapphire Prince 28/1, Weald Park 40/1. Itisqdaam looks a worthy favourite here in my opinion and although up 9 lb in the handicap, has been progressing nicely since switched to an artificial surface and may still have more to offer. He isn't proven over this far but it looks a sensible option to keep him going the right way, hopefully something isn't a miss given he swerved a recent engagement when a NR. Hereford Boy is another that comes into the race in good form and he is still only 2 lbs higher than when winning over course and distance two starts ago and warrants a saver in my opinion. Istiqdaam 7/2 Stan James, 5 pts win Hereford Boy 8/1 Bet 365, 1 pt saver.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 4.05 Kempton Tiddliwinks 11/4, Perfect Act 3/1, Cawdor 13/2, Dvinsky 9/1, Little Pete 10/1, Methaaly 14/1, Timeteam 16/1, Mogok Ruby 28/1 It looks tight at the head of the market with Kevin Ryan's last time out winner Tiddliwinks and Clive Cox's Perfect Act likely to dispute favouritism all the way up to the off. However, I think the price of Cawdor is appearing as the majority of these are exposed and Cawdor could well have more to offer. He beat the well handicapped Cheyenne Red comfortably when last seen, which wasn't too big a surprise considering some respectable maiden form. He is up 7 lbs now but if in one of his good moods is probably up to defying that. The negatives are a mini absence to overcome and the fact this is his AW debut but sire Kyllachy's progeny tend to act on polytrack anyway and I think the current 12/1 available allows a little gamble to be taken. 12/1 Paddypower, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[Kithanga]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

I got a copy of Dave Nevison's Gamblers Diary for Christmas and it has given me a bit of impetus to try with the true value approach again. I have a method of betting that suits me for the jumps handicap chases and I have a way of betting that suits me for turf, but on the all-weather I have struggled of late, as I did towards the back end of last season. It was clear to me that the methods I use for turf are not immediately transferrable to the AW, so I am going to try my luck with a thread for flat bets that looks for true value - you draw up a tissue and identify selections if they are available at prices bigger than you think they should be. I aim to work to the error margin Nevsion talks of in his second book - 15 %. I may be a little flexible on this at times but the overall aim is to cut down on the number of bets I have in 2010 and this margin will hopefully help do that. My overall betting aims for 2010: 1) Become more selective 2) Up my stakes on horses I am really confident about 3) Spend less time overall studying racing (with a thesis to write up and a baby on the way I need to cut back on form study overall), however, spend more time researching each-individual race. I think drawing up a tissue requires indepth study, and that is why I have elected this as my method of choice for this thread. The plan is to trial this on the AW until the flat kicks in again, and then I will hopefully have the option of sticking with it through the turf season or will pack it in and pick back up the flat methods from 2009. Staking is the issue I am unsure of at the minute. To start with I'll go with a 1-12 point scale.

Hi Fin, Happy New Year and congrats on the oscars. Also congrats on the nipper on the way. I'm going to be controversial and try and put you off this approach as I don't believe it'll work for you at all and I think you'll end up wasting a lot of time at a point in your life you're saying you can least afford it. Assuming you're correct about every price, which is a massive assumption given all the variables in racing, let's say you make about 10% profit. However, you need to be getting enough volume of transactions to smooth out the 'luck' and that goes directly against your rule #1. Just try running a few trials in your spreadsheet using a strike rate of 20% and a return of 10% to see what I mean over say 200 transactions. Your returns differ substantially based purely on a random outcome (with a guaranteed built in profit) and there are many losing trials. You've got to run this over many thousand transactions before you make a profit on most of the trials and there are still big losses along the way if you graph the outcome. That's many more transactions (bets) than you're planning. It would take a special type of punter to keep on backing selections that they may not actually fancy that much just because of the price unless you're lucky and see the rewards quickly. Even then the profit could disappear quickly too on a bad run of luck making you think you're making the wroing decisions when you may infact be correct. Look at some of the spreadsheet example graphs you end up with (that have guaranteed built in profit remember) and ask yourself if you really could keep betting that way in reality. I don't think many could and I'd predict that (unless you start off well) you'll give up this approach long before the variance of results can even out as doubts will creep in about your own ability to price up correctly. I don't think you can generate a true set of value prices anywhere near enough times unless you have an ability to judge it objectively every time. You won't. Especially when things aren't going well as you'll price up the animals you think will win at short odds without realising you're doing it. Just stick with what you did on the 2009 flat, but cut down the bets to those where you strongly believe that you have an edge in the price, cutting out the ones where the foundations for your reasoning is weakest. Your outcome should be 'no bet' more often as that is the best answer a lot of the time. Every time you bet you're saying you know more than everyone else's opinion combined. Do you really think you have this edge in every race you study? I really don't think many people can plod along backing animals they've no strong opinion on at 8-1 just because they think they should be 13-2. Back the ones that you do have a strong opinion on that are overpriced and I think you'll naturally cut down your bets and also win easily this year at a much better % than 10. Best of luck for the year, hope it goes well for you. K

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

3.35 Kempton Tripitaka 4/1, Free Tussy 13/2, King Supreme 8/1, Paktolos 9/1, Maslak 10/1, Evident Price 13/1, Dakiyah 14/1, Dreamwalk 16/1, Buddy Holly 20/1, Awatuki 22/1, War of The Roses 22/1, Alaghiraar 40/1, Croix Rouge 80/1. I can see the favourite going well here as he is proven over course and distance and from stall 9 should get himself into a decent racing position upsides the likely leader, Buddy Holly. However, his price is too short in my opinion, with only 5/2 available tonight, so I am chancing Dakiyah. The yard had a recent winner with Mildoura and Dakiyah is a course and distance winner off 7 lbs lower. She has been raised 5 lb for a fifth in listed company last time out but she faced an impossible task at the weights with rivals weighted stones superior, and she seems to be progessing on the all-weather in view of that run. With only seven starts under her belt in this sphere, further improvement could be forthcoming. 20/1 Bet 365, 2 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

Dakiyah was smashed good and proper and sent off at an SP of 13/2. I didn't both locking in the profit given my small stake and had I been on the ball I could have probably backed the winner afterall given he drifted out to an SP of 4/1. I guess it might have been possible to get a +15 % price on the exchanges but nevermind, would have probably been a saver anyway. I expected more form Dakyah but perhaps overestimated her listed fifth lto for better than it was. Betdaq.co.uk Handicap £6500 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 4, £4209 penalty, 13 ran Going: Standard Winning Time: 2m 32.07s

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Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	9		Tripitaka	9-3	N Callan	M A Jarvis	4	4/1 f
		made all, hung left under pressure over 1f out, stayed on strongly opened 3/1 touched 11/4
2	1	2	Paktolos (FR)	9-5 p	M Coumbe (5)	John A Harris	7	6/1
		behind, headway from halfway, chased leaders over 4f out, ridden to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace final furlong opened 13/2 touched 7/1
3	3	hd	Dreamwalk (IRE)	8-11 v	Jim Crowley	R Curtis	4	14/1
		mid-division, not clear run over 2f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on gamely opened 16/1
4	6	3¼	Evident Pride (USA)	9-5	L Keniry	B R Johnson	7	8/1
		slowly into stride, held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, no extra final furlong opened 10/1
5	11	1¾	Free Tussy (ARG)	9-2 bt	D Sweeney	G L Moore	6	9/2
		held up mid-division, headway over 1f out, stayed on well, never nearer touched 4/1
6	10	1¼	Croix Rouge (USA)	8-8	K Fox (7)	R J Smith	8	100/1
		behind, some late headway, never nearer
7	13	1	Buddy Holly	9-5	A Kirby	Pat Eddery	5	16/1
		tracked winner, every chance over 2f out, weakened over 1f out touched 20/1
8	12	1¾	War of The Roses (IRE)	9-4	P Makin	R Brotherton	7	18/1
		held up, never dangerous opened 20/1
9	5	1¼	Alaghiraar (IRE)	8-9 p1	A Munro	Miss E C Lavelle	6	25/1
		held up mid-division, weakened 2f out opened 20/1
10	8	2¾	King Supreme (IRE)	8-12 b	Dane O'Neill	R Hannon	5	8/1
		held up in touch, ridden well over 1f out, soon weakened touched 9/1
11	2	1½	Maslak (IRE)	8-12	C Catlin	P W Hiatt	6	12/1
		prominent, under pressure over 3f out, soon weakened touched 11/1
12	4	nk	Awatuki (IRE)	8-8	R Lucey-Butler (3)	J R Boyle	7	50/1
		slowly into stride, always behind
13	7	1	Dakiyah (IRE)	9-8 p	I Mongan	Mrs L J Mongan	6	13/2
		slowly into stride, held up towards rear, headway over 4f out, soon ridden and weakened opened 10/1

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Glad I posted Dakiyah last night as she is as short as 8/1 this morning! 2.35 Kempton Istiqdaam 5/2, Dinner Date 11/2, Hereford Boy 13/2, Perfect Class 8/1, Mister Green 12/1, Hilbre Court 16/1, Carlitos Spirit 16/1, Prince of Thebes 18/1, Sapphire Prince 28/1, Weald Park 40/1. Itisqdaam looks a worthy favourite here in my opinion and although up 9 lb in the handicap, has been progressing nicely since switched to an artificial surface and may still have more to offer. He isn't proven over this far but it looks a sensible option to keep him going the right way, hopefully something isn't a miss given he swerved a recent engagement when a NR. Hereford Boy is another that comes into the race in good form and he is still only 2 lbs higher than when winning over course and distance two starts ago and warrants a saver in my opinion. Istiqdaam 7/2 Stan James, 5 pts win Hereford Boy 8/1 Bet 365, 1 pt saver.

Istiqdaam drifted out to 9/2 before being clipped back into 4/1. It seems the combination of tougher company and a 9 lb rise did take its toll and I overemphasised how progressive he could have been in my initial assessment. Still, I made a profit on the race due to Hereford Boy, who I had as a 13/2 chance, going in at 12/1, with the bog that ensured a profit on the day as a whole, just! Bet World Darts - Betdaq Handicap £4000 added, 4yo plus, 1m, Class 5, £2590 penalty, 10 ran Going: Standard Winning Time: 1m 39.64s

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Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	2		Hereford Boy	8-10 p	R Havlin	D K Ivory	6	12/1
		behind, headway 2f out, ran on to lead inside final furlong, driven out touched 11/1
2	4	1	Prince Of Thebes (IRE)	8-13	P Doe	M J Attwater	9	12/1
		prominent, led over 2f out, headed inside final furlong, stayed on under pressure touched 14/1
3	1	hd	Istiqdaam	9-3 b	P Makin	M W Easterby	5	4/1 jf
		dwelt, held up in rear, headway over 1f out, soon chasing leaders and one pace opened 7/2 touched 9/2
4	3	nk	Dinner Date	9-0	L Keniry	T Keddy	8	7/1
		held up in touch, ridden to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong opened 6/1
5	7	¾	Mister Green (FR)	9-4	N Callan	K McAuliffe	4	4/1 jf
		mid-division, headway under pressure over 1f out, never on terms opened 9/2
6	6	½	Perfect Class	8-13	E Ahern	C G Cox	4	15/2
		raced keenly in touch, chased leaders over 2f out, soon ridden and every chance, weakened final furlong opened 8/1 touched 9/1
7	5	3½	Hilbre Court (USA)	9-3 p	A Culhane	B P J Baugh	5	6/1
		tracked leaders, weakened 2f out opened 15/2 touched 8/1
8	8	s.h	Sapphire Prince (USA)	8-5	Hayley Turner	J R Best	4	25/1
		steadied in rear, never dangerous
9	10	2½	Carlitos Spirit (IRE)	8-13	A Kirby	I W McInnes	6	10/1
		led, driven and headed over 2f out, weakened quickly opened 9/1 touched 17/2
10	9	3	Weald Park (USA)	9-4	Dane O'Neill	R Hannon	4	10/1
		held up towards rear, ridden over 2f out, soon no impression opened 12/1 touched 9/1

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

4.05 Kempton Tiddliwinks 11/4, Perfect Act 3/1, Cawdor 13/2, Dvinsky 9/1, Little Pete 10/1, Methaaly 14/1, Timeteam 16/1, Mogok Ruby 28/1 It looks tight at the head of the market with Kevin Ryan's last time out winner Tiddliwinks and Clive Cox's Perfect Act likely to dispute favouritism all the way up to the off. However, I think the price of Cawdor is appearing as the majority of these are exposed and Cawdor could well have more to offer. He beat the well handicapped Cheyenne Red comfortably when last seen, which wasn't too big a surprise considering some respectable maiden form. He is up 7 lbs now but if in one of his good moods is probably up to defying that. The negatives are a mini absence to overcome and the fact this is his AW debut but sire Kyllachy's progeny tend to act on polytrack anyway and I think the current 12/1 available allows a little gamble to be taken. 12/1 Paddypower, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

A disappointing pick here and clear the 13/2 I made Cawdor was too generous. I think his lack of fitness was something I downplayed in that price and will be more wary of those returning from breaks (I have actually always been wary of it but Fitz Flyer winning one of the opening races in the thread made me put less emphasis on days since last run). Bet Test Match Cricket - Betdaq Handicap £6500 added, 4yo plus, 6f, Class 4, £4209 penalty, 7 ran Going: Standard Winning Time: 1m 11.63s

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Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	5		Tiddliwinks	9-4	N Callan	K A Ryan	4	5/2 jf
		tracked leader, led over 1f out, hung left, ran on opened 2/1
2	6	1¾	Perfect Act	9-0	A Kirby	C G Cox	5	5/2 jf
		pulled hard, held up in touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to challenge entering final furlong, not pace of winner opened 3/1
3	1	nk	Dvinsky (USA)	8-8 b	J Quinn	P Howling	9	6/1
		led 1f, effort over 2f out, kept on same pace opened 8/1
4	7	1½	Timeteam (IRE)	9-3	David Probert	A Bailey	4	4/1
		led after 1f, headed over 1f out, soon weakened opened 5/1 £2800-£700
5	3	s.h	Little Pete (IRE)	9-4	L Keniry	I W McInnes	5	9/1
		held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, never dangerous touched 8/1
6	2	1¼	Cawdor (IRE)	9-1	Dane O'Neill	Mrs L Stubbs	4	12/1
		chased leaders, under pressure halfway, weakened over 1f out opened 17/2
7	4	½	Mogok Ruby	8-9	A Munro	L Montague Hall	6	20/1
		always behind touched 22/1
Non-Runners
NR			Methaaly (IRE)	8-13	E Ahern	M Mullineaux	7
NR			New Leyf (IRE)	8-9	L Keniry	J Gask	4

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Well done with Hereford Boy fin, 12/1 winner :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Hi Fin, Happy New Year and congrats on the oscars. Also congrats on the nipper on the way. I'm going to be controversial and try and put you off this approach as I don't believe it'll work for you at all and I think you'll end up wasting a lot of time at a point in your life you're saying you can least afford it. Assuming you're correct about every price, which is a massive assumption given all the variables in racing, let's say you make about 10% profit. However, you need to be getting enough volume of transactions to smooth out the 'luck' and that goes directly against your rule #1. Just try running a few trials in your spreadsheet using a strike rate of 20% and a return of 10% to see what I mean over say 200 transactions. Your returns differ substantially based purely on a random outcome (with a guaranteed built in profit) and there are many losing trials. You've got to run this over many thousand transactions before you make a profit on most of the trials and there are still big losses along the way if you graph the outcome. That's many more transactions (bets) than you're planning. It would take a special type of punter to keep on backing selections that they may not actually fancy that much just because of the price unless you're lucky and see the rewards quickly. Even then the profit could disappear quickly too on a bad run of luck making you think you're making the wroing decisions when you may infact be correct. Look at some of the spreadsheet example graphs you end up with (that have guaranteed built in profit remember) and ask yourself if you really could keep betting that way in reality. I don't think many could and I'd predict that (unless you start off well) you'll give up this approach long before the variance of results can even out as doubts will creep in about your own ability to price up correctly. I don't think you can generate a true set of value prices anywhere near enough times unless you have an ability to judge it objectively every time. You won't. Especially when things aren't going well as you'll price up the animals you think will win at short odds without realising you're doing it. Just stick with what you did on the 2009 flat, but cut down the bets to those where you strongly believe that you have an edge in the price, cutting out the ones where the foundations for your reasoning is weakest. Your outcome should be 'no bet' more often as that is the best answer a lot of the time. Every time you bet you're saying you know more than everyone else's opinion combined. Do you really think you have this edge in every race you study? I really don't think many people can plod along backing animals they've no strong opinion on at 8-1 just because they think they should be 13-2. Back the ones that you do have a strong opinion on that are overpriced and I think you'll naturally cut down your bets and also win easily this year at a much better % than 10. Best of luck for the year, hope it goes well for you. K

Good to see you back K and a happy new year to you too :ok Thanks for giving your thoughts, all feedback is appreciated and will help me improve as a punter. I think it is possible to get too wrapped up in things at times and its nice to hear outside thoughts - have I panicked when there was no need, am I subconsciously changing things I shouldn't, or am I missing key things etc etc?? I have had a long think this afternoon about what you have said. I can see you know your stuff and I want to hear such knowledgable input, but at the same time I have just started a new thread and don't want to annoy people by canning it straight away - it gets quite annoying to watch people start threads and give up on them straight away. Also, I also totally get the rationale behind the value approach, when I have read Nevison and heard Ginge bang on about it it all makes perfect sense to me. The problem is that relative to the pros I am inexperienced, I have less time available to study races and like you say, can I really be confident that I am generating true value prices all of the time? Probably not, although I am pleased with my initial efforts in here in identfying winners at 4/1, 11.5/1 and 12/1 in the past few days. I think the only way to improve is to keep on drawing up the tissues, you learn from your mistakes and I have learned several things since starting the thread a week or so ago - instances where I have given too much/not enough emphasis on certain criteria. I suppose, having embarked upon this route, I have now got into a way of thinking that even if I identify horse X as a bet using my old methods and he is available at 4/1, how do I know I am getting value, unless I try price up the rest of the runners and their chances of winning relative to it. That is the thing that makes me want to persist with this value thing and makes it hard for me to drop it like a hot potato, but then again I also think, have I been swayed too much by reading these books over Christmas? I like to think I know how to read the formbook but can I read it as well as the pro's that do (some of whom do anyway) draw up these tissues for a living? The answer is most definately no - for a start I hardly watch much racing - but I was hoping that I had to start somewhere and could improve as I went on. I have asked myself the question, have I panicked too quickly? Should I have given myself longer to turn things around last month. I think reading your post and hearing it from someone else has actually convinced me that this is actually the case. Basically I had a terrible December. Blog bets totalled 46 yet I had just one winner - Arteus - and it was only a 5/1 shot too. I think what has happened is that, on a losing run, I totally lost focus, I was backing horses that should not have been bets, and on those I did back, I was staking too much in an attempt to bring everything back to zero. If I had cut out all of the silly bets (easier said than done) I wouldn't have actually been that far of zero, although I am sure you will appreciate as you will have yourself been a novice with poor discipline, that is easier said than done. Last year I did find it hard at times to detach and was having a bet every day. One of my new years resolutions is to have more no-bet days. During that spell in which there was no racing just before Christmas I actually sat down and went through my results and highlighted where I was going wrong, drawing up an action plan for the new year and setting myself selection criteria that a selection must meet before becoming a bet. The more boxes ticked, the stronger the bet etc. But then this got shoved to one side on Christmas Day when I got a few new books and started reading about value again!It got me excited and I thought I'd give it a go - afterall I had nothing to lose having not backed a winner for near on a month. Anyway, enough rambling, having spent a bit of time to reflect on things I do think I have panicked and that I should give things more time. Despite some earlier promise with the tissues I think it is perhaps the wrong time for this and that it is something that should be looked at further down the line. What I am going to do is work out all profit/loss to date and then pick back up my earlier plan of action from 2009 and put it into play. I'll run from the point I'm at here for the sake of keeping a thread going and not hiding from losses, and although I will still be looking to back horses that I consider to offer value, and not just who I think has the best chances of winning, they wont be tissue price+15% picks, they'll just ne normal thread picks I would have selected as I did before... Thanks again for your input K.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Well done with Hereford Boy fin' date=' 12/1 winner :clap[/quote'] thanks mate, pleasantly surprised with the SP

[Kithanga]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Thanks again for your input K.

Your welcome - just wanted to pass on what I learned when I went through this approach many years ago. By the way, I totally agree with the value approach - it's the only way to win as far as I'm concerned so don't give up on it, nor on creating a tissue. I suppose what I'm saying is don't spend valuable time doing a full tissue on a hard race looking to pick up a marginal value bet on an animal that's 6-1 when it should be 5-1 when you know any one of five could win it. Either take an animal that's 12-1 instead of 5-1 in that type of tricky race or go to another race where there may be only two or three strong contenders and one's priced out at 6-1 when it should be 3-1. Best of luck.. k

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Update Results Update 11. Dig Deep 11/1--> 8/1, 2 pt EW, -4 pts 12. Vinces 17/2 --> 15/2, 1 pt EW, -2 pts 13. Dakiyah 20/1 --> 13/2, 2 pt EW, -4 pts 14. Istiqdaam 7/2 --> 4/1, 5 pt win, -5 pts Hereford Boy 8/1 --> 12/1, 1 pt win, +12 pts 15. Cawdor 12/1 --> 12/1, 1 pt EW, -2 pts Overall thread figures No of bets: 10 + 5 = 15 Pts staked: 51 + 18 = 69 Profit/loss: -17.22 -5 = -22.22 ROI: -32 % Strike Rate (profitable bet = winner): 6/15 = 40 %

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Right, back with my 'plan of action' with the non-tissue picks and having had two days off with no strong bets identified, back with two for tomorrow. Prices are up at Kempton so taking one now... 5.20 Kempton Mafeking - has been in great form of late and unlucky in defeat on more than one occassion, being robbed of the win on the line. A claiming jockey is put up tomorrow to ease the weight burden slightly and that could make the difference. 4/1 Bet 365, 3 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Kempton fell victim to the weather yesterday so Mafeking was a non-runner, which was a real shame for a horse that looked bang in form and had conditions in his favour. Hopefully Southwell is still on later today, with two bets stuck for today. 12.10 Southwell Angle of Attack's reliability can be questioned but he won well donning a first time visor last time out over course and distance which gives reason to believe he is worth chancing of a follow up today, turned out under a penalty, and well handicapped on his old form. 4.0 Betfair, 8 pts win. 2.40 Southwell John Boyle is in good form so Wotashirtful, who although not yet a course winner but beaten by a short head on a previous visit, may be worth a punt in the five furlong dash. He's had a little break since being held at Epsom when not getting his ideal conditions, and has placed before when returning from 60+ day breaks. A career best is needed off this mark but he could dominate this small field. 7/2 Bet 365, 3 pts win, 2.5 Betfair TBP, 3 pts.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 thats Jim not John!

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 I beat the SP massively on Angle of Attack even after reduction factors were accounted for but he caught a tartar from the Milton Bradley yard and you can't forsee those. Wotashirtful weakened and will probably come on for the run. Two for today... 1.00 Lingfield Lord Deevert - in good heart last time out when a good second and acts over this course and distance. Is back down to a winning mark and yard bagged recent winner at Southwell. 5/1 Bet 365, 2 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 2.30 Lingfield Luberon - has to be campaigned sporadically now off this sort of mark but yard can be relied upon to have him ready and recent pipeopener could have sharpened him up. Has slipped way below mark when winning Roseberry in 2007 and if he's come on from last run will be tough to pass. 9/2 Hills, 2 pts EW (2 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Both horses flopped today, failing to see out their races. Luberon especially ran poorly and failed to beat a runner but clearly wasn't ready for this. I don't think there is too much to be worried about at this point though, still only a small number of bets have been placed and one winner could put profit back the black. I'm happy with my selectivity though and have cut back on the minimum stake bets so I feel as though I am making progress of sorts. Results Update 16. Angle of Attack 9/4 --> 6/4, 8 pt win, -4 pts 17. Wotashirtful 7/2/2.5 --> 7/2, 3 pt EW, -6 pts 18. Lord Deevert 5/1 --> 9/2, 2 pt EW, -4 pts 19. Luberon 9/2 --> 5/1, 2 pt EW, -4 pts Overall thread figures No of bets: 15 + 4 = 19 Pts staked: 69 + 18 = 87 Profit/loss: -22.22 - 18 = -40.22 ROI: -46 % Strike Rate (profitable bet = winner): 6/19 = 32 %

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 One pick for tomorrow and already theres a big difference of opinion in the prices. 5/1 Bet 365, 6/1 SJ and 8/1 Hills. I was expecting about 6/1 so will gladly bet with Hills. ;) 2.55 Kempton Dvinsky - well drawn and has been knocking on the door of late. Has dropped below last winning mark and weighted to get close to the likes of Tiddliwinks and Lujeanie. 8/1 Hills, 3 pt EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 3.55 Kempton Bookiesindex Girl - won over this trip at Lingfield last time out so proven on this surface too. Possibility there is more improvement to come and John Jenkins' runner could go well under Shane Kelly. 7/4 Bet 365, 12 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

3.55 Kempton Bookiesindex Girl - won over this trip at Lingfield last time out so proven on this surface too. Possibility there is more improvement to come and John Jenkins' runner could go well under Shane Kelly. 7/4 Bet 365, 12 pts win.

the only way this horse would lose today was if it beat itself which is ultimately what happened - raced keenly early on and hung left inside the final furlong allowing the winner in. Would have probably won if managed to stay straight and traded as short as 1/2 in running, may have gone shorter I dunno but thats what I got out at - but once again won't include trades in the profit and loss and it will go down as a loser. My luck has to change soon. Dvinsky wasn't unlucky earlier though, he ran his usual race but bumped into a well handicapped Tiddliwinks who bolted up with Amy Ryan's claim counteracting his penalty.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 4.45 Kempton This looks a decent enough handicap for the grade with the head of the weights William Muir's Defector. The son of Fasliyev won over course and distance in September and has ran a series of good races since, seeing him creep up slowly in the handicap. Neil Callan is booked so he should go well, as should Fandango Boy, one of the oldest runners in the field but interesting now with Ian Williams given back to back wins at Dundalk for his old yard in November. Bottom weight Valentino Swing has been holding his form well and should go well under Jack Dean, but its I Confess that looks the bet at the prices in my opinion. David Evans continues to bag winners and his front running gelding will be eager to get back on the track this afternoon having had his previous race cancelled due to the snow. Although a Lingfield specialist, he is better than his previous Kempton form suggests and the race in which he finished third to Seek The Fair Land over track and trip looks sold in the context of this race. The winner went down by only a short head next time out whilst the second, Imprimis Tagula, has won twice since. 9/1 Stan James, 2 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 4.45 Kempton I'm gonna get a whopping rule 4 deduction on I Confess if he wins, as three non-runners have decimated the field and we're only aiming for two places now. Anyway, Fandango Boy who had me worried a little with a rail draw, has been pulled out along with Valentino Swing who I gave a chance to, so I want to top up my stake and add a saver on the additional stake. I Confess 7/2 Ladbrokes, 1.5 pt Defector 10/3 Bet 365, 0.5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Poor selections today but gonna keep plodding on with this. There is only one class 4 race tomorrow and its a 3 yo only race on the polytrack at Lingfield. I've had a look at the Betfair prices and Admiral Cochrane and Fazza who were planned as bets don't look great prices so I'm leaving it alone until the market gets competitive. I've had a bet in the finale at Southwell though. 3.50 Southwell Madison Belle ran with promise on her first run back from a break and could go well for John Weymes, who brings his filly down from his North Yorkshire base. She is a four time course winner, twice over this trip, and although her winning has been done in claimers, she has been dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap and may be able to defy this top-weight with Martin Lane's allowance a further help. 16/1 Bet 365, 3 pt win, 1 pt place (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 3.35 Lingfield Mark Johnston's Capricornus will be popular on his handicap debut after winning last time out on the all-weather. I think the price seems quite short though and passed over. Fazza and Admiral Cochrane seem sure to get the race run to suit and are closely matched on recent running. Hugh Taylor is on the latter though and has driven the price down this morning. That has opened up the possibility of a bet from some of those lurking further down the betting in my opinion. With Kristy's Boy producing his best form in claimers and Gold Party not certain to act over this trip I think Exceedthewildman is overpriced at 16/1. Stan Moore's colt won a nursery over course and distance in November and is only 3 lbs higher now. He raced off his current mark of 74 when fourth and behind the progressive Lisahane Bog next time out and the form of that race has been further boosted through the Love Guru (twice won since). He then ran in a novice race when travelling well but ultimately was found out by the enormity of the task he faced at the weights, whilst the winner also had the run of the race. Last time out he attempted a mile but couldn't quite maintain his challenge all the way to the line. The step back to seven furlongs will thus suit here and the price looks tasty. 16/1 Hills, 3 pt win/1 pt place (2 places, 1/4 odds).

[Trendsman]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Interesting call Wayne, Stan has Kirsty's Boy aswell, interesting pair against this field and has run a time that would beat Fazza over this trip. but as you say Kirsty's Boy has been around claimers and Fazza is open to improvement I think your selection was going well before fading tamely recently but to many unknowns in this especially on the Slow Surface and The Love Guru now pulled out makes the race very open. You snowed in at Bradford, been hit hard in Hudds, have to catch up for another beer some time soon, hopefully B4 cheltenham have to put our heads together see if we can get some thing to hit, best of luck today

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Interesting call Wayne, Stan has Kirsty's Boy aswell, interesting pair against this field and has run a time that would beat Fazza over this trip. but as you say Kirsty's Boy has been around claimers and Fazza is open to improvement I think your selection was going well before fading tamely recently but to many unknowns in this especially on the Slow Surface and The Love Guru now pulled out makes the race very open. You snowed in at Bradford, been hit hard in Hudds, have to catch up for another beer some time soon, hopefully B4 cheltenham have to put our heads together see if we can get some thing to hit, best of luck today

Snow is bad here mate yeah. I parked my car up on a hill the other day, the next morning I went to get in and it had gone! It had slid down the side road a couple of metres and nearly into the middle of the main road where it would have cause plenty of problems, but luckily it wasn't hit as it had ground to a halt in the gutter. We seem to be getting the worst of it up in Yorkshire over the past couple of days don't we. RE Exceedthewildman - it looks a really competitive race and is one of those where I think there are horses with better chances (Capricornus, Fazza, Admiral Cochrane) but I'll be happy to watch any of them win unbacked because I think the value has been squeezed out of them mainly. I think Fazza's price is about right but I thought Exceedthewildman would be half his current price so it seemed an opportunity too good to miss. The Racing Post say he is starting to look exposed but over 7f on polytrack he's only ran twice in handicaps, winning once and the second was the race with Lisahane Bog and The Love Guru, both of whom have won since. Yeah, we will defo have another meet up before Cheltenham. Nearer the time we'll ask around as a couple of the other locals on here were away on holiday/working last time and may be able to make it this time.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Two bad calls yeserday and both were unplaced. Madison Belle was a weired one, backed into 8's yesterday morning from 16's the night before, but drifted out the 20/1 for the off. 6.55 Kempton There is a couple of interesting runners in this, most notably Seek The Fair Land who has been in great form recently and bids for his third win in four. Top-weight Brave Echo was a hefty purchase from John Gosden for Michael Attwater and is open to more improvement, but the success of both in the this race could rest in the hands of Simple Rhythm who looks overpriced at 50.0 on Betfair. She is a trailblazer that should get the run of the race here and although she is unproven over the trip she has yet to tackle it and it could well be that it unlocks further improvement. She was in good form on turf when landing back to back handicaps in Sept-Oct and had valid excuses for poor runs since, at Brighton faring best of those that raced on the unfavoured far side of the course, and then at Southwell, last time out, not getting the run of the race and finding herself hampered after one furlong. Given that she had been on the go since April it may be that she will benefit from her recent break and resume her improvement. Either way, 50's looks too big in my opinion. 50.0 win/8.4 TBP Betfair - 2 pts/2pts

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 that should be 6.45