Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Another poor pick today. Just one bet for tomorrow. 4.10 Wolverhampton A really good race to kick off the card tomorrow. Excellent Show heads the market at 9/2 following a gutsy win last time out when he was headed but battled back bravely to get back up before the line. He remains open to more improvement and Argentine and Total Impact both come into the race off the back of last time out wins. However, I think all three may possibly be inconvenienced by the likely generous gallop that could be produced courtesy of Stolt, Wotashirtfull and Peak District and so I am siding with Rocket Rob. He makes his debut for Marco Botti having moved on from Simon Callaghan, but he looks handicapped to have a chance courtesy of Andrea Atzeni's claimers allowance. He must bounce back from a poor showing last time out but with Botti banging in the winners and seemingly showing no ill effects of the cold snap on his stable, I think he is worth chancing at the odds. 8/1 Bet 365, 2 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Another poor pick today. Just one bet for tomorrow. 4.10 Wolverhampton A really good race to kick off the card tomorrow. Excellent Show heads the market at 9/2 following a gutsy win last time out when he was headed but battled back bravely to get back up before the line. He remains open to more improvement and Argentine and Total Impact both come into the race off the back of last time out wins. However, I think all three may possibly be inconvenienced by the likely generous gallop that could be produced courtesy of Stolt, Wotashirtfull and Peak District and so I am siding with Rocket Rob. He makes his debut for Marco Botti having moved on from Simon Callaghan, but he looks handicapped to have a chance courtesy of Andrea Atzeni's claimers allowance. He must bounce back from a poor showing last time out but with Botti banging in the winners and seemingly showing no ill effects of the cold snap on his stable, I think he is worth chancing at the odds. 8/1 Bet 365, 2 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

A winner to cheer at last :nana The signs were good for this one with sustained market support all day, sending him off at 4/1. There were two non-runners but only 20p in the pound and so the rest of the move was down to money coming for it. Andrea Atzeni is arguably the best 3 lb claimer around and gave it a great ride, biding his time until a gap appeared, and finishing the race strongly when challenged in the finish. One bet for tomorrow at Wolverhampton. 4.20 Wolverhampton A sprint handicap over six furlongs here and with Billy Red, Dvinsky, Misaro and Bel Cantor in the line-up it is looking as if we should get things run at a proper gallop. With that in mind, the one I think is overpriced is Methaaly. His yard are not exactly firing on all cylinders, but the horse has been holding his form well and is only 2 lb higher than his Warwick win in October. Proven over course and distance, Eddie Ahern should be able to drop him in on the inside from stall 3, and produce him late to challenge. 10/1 Bet 365, 2 pts EW (1/4 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 4.20 Wolverhampton Methaaly - further 1 pt win, 14/1 Skybet.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

4.20 Wolverhampton Methaaly - further 1 pt win, 14/1 Skybet.

Bad call, nowhere near! Ahern never wins when I back him! 6.50 Wolverhampton With Novikov now a non-runner there is a possibility that Cobo Bay could dominate these from the front. His win at Nottingham on heavy ground over an extended mile suggests he has the stamina for this trip here, especially if he can control the tempo. A course winner on one of only two starts on the AW (placed on the other) he is well handicapped on his best form and could go well off top-weight. 11/1 Bet 365, 2 pts EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 There is already a competitive market in place for the class 2 handicap at Lingfield tomorrow so I'm going in now. 3.40 Lingfield A really tight race this where they bet 5/1 the field but Mafeking, who missed his last engagement due to snow, is now raised sharply in class now back on the track. I think the class rise, coupled with the presence of front running Luberon, will count against him tomorrow, so I have looked for some each-way value. Richard Guest has been in great form and if his European Dream turns up (several horses from the yard missed engagements today due to snow) he could have chances off this mark. However, he isn't proven on polytrack and for that reason I'm on Baylini, who is long overdue a win in a race like this. A course and distance winner back in January two years ago she still runs credibly off this higher mark and at the start of last year she made the frame several times in handicaps as well as earning herself some black type when placed in two listed races. She has the benefit of a recent pipeopener at this track and although its possible she may need a few runs before hitting top gear, in such a tight race with no obvious winner I think she is worth a gamble. 12/1 Stan James, 2 pts EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

6.50 Wolverhampton With Novikov now a non-runner there is a possibility that Cobo Bay could dominate these from the front. His win at Nottingham on heavy ground over an extended mile suggests he has the stamina for this trip here, especially if he can control the tempo. A course winner on one of only two starts on the AW (placed on the other) he is well handicapped on his best form and could go well off top-weight. 11/1 Bet 365, 2 pts EW.

With Plush drifting, all the money seemed to be for this one (smashed into 7/1) and African Cheetah. Amy Ryan did nothing wrong on Cobo Bay, the horse was inconvenienced by Inheritor who took it on for the lead and as a result it was no surprise he faded inside the final furlong.

[Trendsman]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Did you keep the faith with Exceedthewildman Wayne wins at 6/1

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Did you keep the faith with Exceedthewildman Wayne wins at 6/1

Unfortunately not! I saw the result and winced, but I lost faith in him after the last run. At least he did prove well handicapped after all! The 3.40 result was more frustrating though, I had Baylini lined up in doubles with Anak and my best bet of the day, Clear Sailing and both got the business done. Baylini travelled superbly for Hayley Turner and was absolutely cruising round the home bend, but the well supported winner got first run on her and maintained a half a length advantage at the finish. The returns from the place part of the each-way single, as well as earlier winning singles, ensure a good day overall though :)

[Trendsman]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 i thought Hayley had Baylini well poised to win the race, but the winner was stepping up in trip and had been nibbled all morning. but i still though Baylini was going to go away on the outside when the three in front looked to stop on their personal battle

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Yeah, oh well, I was pleased with the run overall as the horse is no spring chicken anymore and she could have easily bombed out after just one run back after a break. There will be a lot of happy punters on that winner though and the horse must have sensed the money was down! Well done Trotter and Dave In the Lakes who both called it.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 One for tomorrow. 4.10 Wolverhampton A decent sprint on the all-weather for a Sunday afternoon and although Nickel Silver comes into the race in great form I think the presence of Glamorous Spirit, stepped up sharply in grade having been running in plating races of late, will hinder him. Ebraam will benefit from Declan Cannon's 5 lb claimer but his running style changes like the wind so he is hard to predict, so I am siding with Matsunosuke in the hope Scobie Coogan's gelding is nearing his best again. 12 months ago he embarked upon a steep curve of progession, capped off with a listed level win at Lingfield in February. Realistic winning opportunities for him since have inevitably been limited due to his lofty handicap mark but without winning he has started to edge back down to a mark off which he can be competitive. Last time out was the first time he has looked like winning for a while, finishing less than a length back in third at this track, and although this is a step back in trip, 9 of his 13 career wins have come over 5f so it doesn't concern me. 3/1 Bet 365, 4 pts win.

[fintron]

Time to update the results... A pleasing update as two fair winners have been found the judgement on Exceedthewildman was justified when he won next time out. Bookiesindex Girl went down as a hefty loser but looked the winner before losing the race herself. I've ditched class 5-6 races now and results have picked up since in recent days. 20. Dvinsky 8/1 --> 6/1, 3 pt EW, -6 pts 21. Bookiesindex Girl 7/4 --> 11/10, 12 pt win, -12 pts 22. I Confess 9/1 ---> 5/1, 2 pt EW, -4 pts I Confess 7/2, 1.5 pt win, -1.5 pt Defector 10/3, 0.5 pt win, -0.5 pt 23. Madison Belle 16/1 --> 20/1, 3 pt win/1 pt place, -4 pts 24. Exceedthewildman 16/1 -->10/1, 3 pt win/1 pt place, -4 pts 25. Simple Rhythm 50.0/8.4 --->25/1, 2 pts/2pts, -4 pts 26. Rocket Rob 8/1 --> 4/1 (20p R4), 2 pt EW, +15.36 (WON 8/1 EW - 20p R4) 27. Methaaly 10/1 --> 12/1, 2 pts EW, -4 pts Methaaly 14/1, 1 pt, -1 pt 28. Cobo Bay 11/1 --->7/1, 2 pt EW, -4 pts 29. Baylini 12/1 --> 14/1, 2 pt EW, +3.6 pts (Placed 14/1 bog) 30. Matsunosuke 3/1 ---> 9/2, 4 pts win, +18 pts (WON 9/2 BOG) Overall thread figures No of bets: 19 + 11 = 30 Pts staked: 87 + 57 = 144 pts Profit/loss: -40.22 - 8.04 = -48.26 ROI: -34 % Strike Rate (profitable bet = winner): 9/30 = 30 %

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 2.30 Lingfield I think the front three in the market are underpriced and so am on Rocky's Pride here. Andy Haynes claimed the Rock of Gibraltar gelding from Gary Moore last time out after a CD win. 3rd to Tripitaka and Brett Vale over an unsuitable trip two starts ago he is unexposed and could get the run of the race here. 12/1 Bet 365, 2 pt EW

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Rocky's Pride was unplace yesterday. 2.20 Southwell River Ardeche is an interesting contener here, even though priced as the 33/1 outsider. He started his career over six furlongs at York, and there was no stopping him that day on the heavy ground as he hacked up and crashed through the railing after the finish as the jockey struggled to pull him up. His best form since has come over middle distances and although his previous runs over 7-8f fail to offer much enthusiasm, the trainer felt the horse wasn't right mentally back then. We have yet to see him tackle this sort of trip since. However, subsequent form suggests they have ironed out his temperament issues and last year he won at this course in this grade off 6 lb lower. He has placed since off this sort of weight to suggest a mark of 78 may be within his capabilities, and his last few runs may have merely been to sharpen him up (last run in a higher grade anyway). I do have doubts as to whether he does truly need further and he may simply be a plodder that lacks the toe to be effective over a mile, but given we have yet to see him over this trip in a healthy state of mind I think he is worth chancing, with the lack of front runners in the line-up the deciding factor in favour of a bet. 33/1 Stan James, 3 pts win/2 pt place (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[Kithanga]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Nice winners recently. Good to see your getting back on track mate. :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Cheers K, I just needed a bit of guidance to get back on track. :ok The thread is showing a loss but I'm not panicking and think it will turn around with a big priced winner - the improved selectivity will be the key hopefully :hope

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 5.40 Kempton Rocket Rob has drifted back out to a fair price so I have belatedly got involved. Was on last time out when he scored on first run for yard and he has only been dealt a modest rise in the weights for that win. He will strip fitter for that run, hopefully Glamorous Spirit and Nickel Silver can set this up with a fast pace, and he will find the gaps in the straight, thats the thing holding me back from backing to a bigger stake. He won around Wolver, but Handsome Cross was a fine example in the last race of a hold up horse getting unlucky in running at Kempton. 2/1 Bet 365, 4 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 No complaints with the ride on Rocket Rob there. Although he didnt get stuck for a run, the front two went off at blistering speed, and he ran out of room to make inroads on them but was gaining towards the line. He's probably better at Wolverhampton and could win off that mark again. Great performance by the winner though, he really is a gutsy type and never packs in even when things conspire against him. 6.10 Kempton There is a hell of a lot of money for this favourite, probably because Mark Johnston is on fire but 4/6 is too short for me now when Cairnsmore has had so long off the track. Fix The Rib is a 156-rated chaser and if he can show ability on the flat then he is the one to beat here. The yard have been amongst the winners and although the horse Fell last time out he can be excused that given the sequence of wins he had racked up beforehand. 9/2 Hills, 2 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 It's been a bit quiet in here due to the lack of high class handicaps. 31. Rocky's Pride 12/1 ---> 11/1, 2 pt EW, -4 pts 32. River Ardeche 33/1 ---> 50/1, 3 pt win/2 pt place, -5 pts 33. Rocket Rob 2/1 ---> 15/8, 4 pts win, -4 pts 34. Fix The Rib 9/2 ---> 7/2, 2 pts EW, -0.2 pt Overall thread figures No of bets: 30 + 4 = 34 Pts staked: 144 + 17 = 161 Profit/loss: -48.26 - 13.2 = -61.46 ROI: -38 % Strike Rate (profitable bet = winner): 9/34 = 26 %

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 405 meydan Mulaqat - strongly run race will suit had benefit of recent run buick booked. 25s b365, 2 pt ew

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 apologies for short write ups but posting via my phone. 4.50 meydan - aichi - 3rd to scenic blast at flemington reads well, could get run of race. 3s hills 2pts ew. 5.35 meydan - whispering gallery looked classy when winning york handicap earlier in month. Potentially group class, could take this off 107. 13/8 hills, 8 pts win

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Well done with Whispering Gallery fin :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Well done with Whispering Gallery fin :ok

Cheers Stu. Credit to Frankie, a great front running ride, although he was on the best horse in the race and it would have been a surprise had he not won there. The winner was eased down a tad at the end and looks sure to be contesting some decent prizes next season IMO.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Couple of decent sprints on the all-weather today. I've priced up the races too, not as a backbone for making a selection, but I've continued to draw them up for the purposes of practicing odds complilation throughout the month, and may as well include them too..... 4.00 Lingfield The Surrey track looks to host a quality handicap here with ANNE OF KIEV and Billy Red bringing last time out form to the table. The latter is an admirable sort and turned in a superb display for John Jenkins last time out, but the penalty he carries as a consequence of that win, together with fierce competition for the lead from Wotashirtful and Simply Rhythm, means he is overlooked. The likely strong pace should play right into the hands of the selection, who is unexposed and who has already shown she acts both over this trip (previous distance winner) as well as at the track (placed here when with John Gosden). A 3 lb rise for her latest success may not prevent a follow up and she can probably see off Master Lightfoot who looks a possible threat from the bottom of the weights. He was unlucky to bump into a well handicapped rival when beaten over course and distance last week and is open to more improvement, but for the winner we return to Anne of Kiev, who is taken to land another win for the week for Jeremy Gask. My 100 % book: Anne of Kiev 11/4, Billy Red 9/2, Wotashirtful 11/2, Master Lightfoot 7/1, Even Bolder 10/1, Incomparable 14/1, Garstang 16/1, Simple Rhythm 20/1 Suggested bet: Annie of Kiev 7/2 Bet 365, 6 pt win 6.10 Wolverhampton Many of these runners are open to more improvement over this sort of trip but BAJAN TRYST may be the one to be on. Succesful over this trip at Ripon he has demonstrated an ability to act in this grade and beyond, and although he has a slight break to overcome, he went well fresh at the beginning of last season when losing his maiden tag at Lingfield. Fen Spirit turned in a good effort when last seen when fitted with first time blinkers, and a change of headgear here is designed to keep his mind on the matters at hand, but he is passed over, along with Indian Skipper, who although in decent enough form, may possibly be a little outpaced over this trip here. Ray of Joy performs fairly consistently and bumped into the well handicapped Tiddliwinks when last seen. However, he is more exposed that some of these and the handicapper may need to cut him some slack before he is back in the winners enclosure. Kevin Ryan is 5-19 in the past fortnight with his runners and could add to that tally with Bajan Tryst here. My 100 % book Bajan Tryst 2/1, Indian Skipper 4/1, Fen Spirit 5/1, Ray of Joy 6/1, Pawan 10/1, Classic Descent 14/1. Suggested bet: Bajan Tryst 3/1 Bet 365, 4 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 4.00 late off. Anne of kiev 5s b365, furher 2 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Bajan Tryst hacked up yesterday, Anne of Kiev disappointed. Morris opted for the inside route up the rail. :@ 3.55 Lingfield This looks a top class handicap with plenty of in form types contesting this £10k prize. Suits Me is one of the best middle-distance horses around on the all-weather and returns to handicaps having finished placed behind Tranquil Tiger on his last couple of starts in listed company. Although he will lug 9-12 around on his back here, he relishes these big weights and can often make his class tell, but it is possible that he may become locked in a battle for the lead with Mafeking, who himself arrives in great shape. He plugged on when beaten behind the well-handicapped Bridge of Gold when last seen over this course and distance, and rarely runs a bad ran under these conditions. Winter Fever registered his first victory on these shores when winning over slightly shorter at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. He seems suited by this step up in trip and having won at listed level back in South Africa, he may be able to defy a 4 lb rise in the weights for that success. However, at a bigger prices, The Cayterers and HAZZARD COUNTY are of more interest. Tony Carroll's The Cayterers hasn't had much racing at this trip and stayed on well under less than ideal circumstances to take second behind the well positioned Bound By Honour over course and distance in November. He should run well at a price, as should bottom weight Hazzard County, who shaped well on his recent comeback and has been crying out for a step up in trip, which he gets here. Placed in valuable turf races in 2008 he is also a previous course winner, and he could go well for David Simcock despite racing from 2 lbs out of the handicap. Confidentiality is a model of consistency and should run his usual race and Baylini is another course and distance winner that shouldn't be too far away, but for the winner, we return to Hazzard County, who is likely to be sent off at a value price. My 100 % book Suits Me 5/1, Mafeking 6/1, Confidentiality 7/1, Winter Fever 15/2, The Cayterers 9/1, Hazzard County 11/1, Full Toss 12/1, Baylini 14/1, Samarinda 20/1, Sohcahtoa 25/1, Raptor 28/1. Suggested bets: Hazzard County 14/1 Bet 365, 2 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds) The Cayterers 8/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt (saver)

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 3.55 kempton Orpenindeed - unlike most of these has the speed to act over 6f. 5s pp, 2 pt EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

3.55 kempton Orpenindeed - unlike most of these has the speed to act over 6f. 5s pp, 2 pt EW.

RACE ANALYSIS 3.55 Kempton With the absence of prominent racers in this field they went at a dawdle with a time 3.8 seconds than standard recorded. As a result, the form needs treating with caution. Openindeed looked the only runner on paper that would be willing to make the running and that is exactly what happened, with Andrea Atzeni allowed to set a sedate pace until two and a half furlongs out, when Indian Skipper moved upsides the long time leader on the outside, and the race descended into a sprint. For the most part it looked as if Orpenindeed was always doing enough to repel the fast finishers, but ELNA BRIGHT, who had been stalking him on the inside having raced around two lengths off the pacesetter in the early stages, got up inside the final hundred yards to steal the race from under his nose. Brett Johnson's gelding had been on good form in recent months, including two wins in decent all-weather handicaps in the last couple of months and he was simply better positioned than the remainder of the field who raced further off the pace. He won't get hit hard for this win and remains of interest, even back in a handicap, providing he is granted a proper gallop in future. Indian Skipper broke slowly from the gates but with the race run at such a modest speed was still able to recover his position. As the approached the half-way point in the race Billy Cray niggled his mount along and he made headway to move alongside the winner in the straight as the pace quickened. He was tapped for toe by the leading pair but is holding his form well and a return to a strongly run seven furlongs should see him gain compensation in the months to come. Fathsta raced in third position throughout the early stages of the contest but when push came to shove he couldn't make up ground on the leading duo who had been given first run, as well as Indian Skipper. This run can be ignored, and he will be seen to better effect in a truly run contest, back in handicaps, where he can race on terms with the field. Aeroplane was a the big disappointment of the race and seems flattered by his official rating considering he was well in with all of these on official figures. He raced on the inside in the rear throughout before being switched out wide for a run in the straight, but he was another unsuited by the modest pace and he lacked the pace of the leaders who, to be fair, were able to pull more out of the bag when it mattered. Nevertheless, a drop in the handicap looks inevitable. Adjustments in OR's Elna Bright +3 lb Orpenindeed 0 Indian Skipper 0 Fathsta 0 Aeroplane -4 lb Notebook Entry:

Indian Skipper (R. Guest): continues to run with credit and a return to handicaps and a strongly run race, over seven furlongs especially, will see him back in the winners enclosure in the months to come.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 4.50 Wolverhampton JUST TIMMY MARCUS generally acquits himself well over this course and distance and considering his recent no show came at Kempton, it may well be that Brian Baugh's gelding can return to form and make a mockery of his double figure price now back at Dunstall Park this afternoon. Between September and December last year he ran six times over this CD with form figures of 642343 recorded. He was never beaten far and along the way bumped into some usual types. On the 11th of December he was no match for the well handicapped Istiqdaam, but it is worth noting that the likes of Striker Torres and Diapson have come out of that race and won multiple times since and it looks useful form. A mark of 65 looks well within his capabilities and in a race in which they were betting 4/1 the field this morning, this looks an ideal race for a big priced outsider to sneak into the frame. Suggested bets: Just Timmy Marcus TBP (3 places) - 6/1 Bet 365, 3 pt Just Timmy Marcus 22/1 William Hill - 1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Just Timmy Marcus raced in the rear today at Wolverhampton which wasnt what I expected. Forced widest of all turning for home he raced the longest route of any in the race and unsurprisingly failed to grind down Smalljohn who won well from the front. results update.... 35. Mulaqat 25/1, 2 pt EW, -4 pts 36. Aichi, 2 pt EW, -4 pts 37. Whispering Gallery 13/8, 8 pts, +13 pts 38. Anne of Kiev 7/2, 8 pts, -8 pts 39. Bajan Tryst 3/1, 4 pts, +12 pts 40. Hazzard County 14/1, 2 pt EW, -4 pts The Cayterers 8/1, 0.5 pt win, -0.5 pt 41. Orpenindeed 11/2, 2 pts EW, 0.75 pt 42. Just Timmy Marcus 22/1 1 pt win/ 6/1 TBP 3 pt, -4 pts Overall thread figures No of bets: 34 +8 = 42 Pts staked: 161 + 40.5 = 201.5 Profit/loss: -61.46 + 1.25 = -60.21 ROI: -30 % Strike Rate (profitable bet = winner): 12/42 = 29 %