Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Two poor selections since, will update this after the weekend :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:10 Wolverhampton This is a really tight contest with several going to post who have won previously over the course and distance. The one I like the look of is Cavitie. He has only had 12 starts to date and finally started to show some improvement on the AW this year when he finally got his head in front over the distance at Southwell on his penultimate start off a mark of 53. Was a close 2nd off a mark of 55 at Kempton LTO over 6 furlongs which shows he can handle the polytrack as well as fibresand. Gets in off the same mark here and dropped back down to the minimum trip which is sure to suit. Had a nice low draw in stall 4 as well which is a positive. 1pt win Cavitie @ 3/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Will update this thread tonight, one for today but could possibly rise to two: 15:55 Southwell Love Delta absolutely loves it here having won 3 times from 3 visits over 5/6 furlongs. Completed a four-timer at the course after a win at Kempton was sandwiched in between the three wins here. Is 8lbs higher than his last win but has been dropped 2lbs from his last AW effort after finishing 5/7 when upped into a class 2 race for the first time. Has also had two runs on turf off a mark 1lb and 2lb higher but his AW exploits so far has suggested he acts much better on the surface. Will definately appreciate the return back to this track in what looks like a nice little contest. It pays to be a front runner/prominent at this track due to the kick back and it looks like there could be plenty of pace in this race which should suit Love Delta to a tee. He has tended to lead in previous races but has also been tucked in behind the leaders which I feel Fanning will look to do today to avoid any early battles up front for the lead. 1pt win Love Delta @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Update: Den's Gift (Won @ 10/1) + 8.75 Masai Moon (-0.50) Daaweitza (-1.00) Cavitie (-1.00) Love Delta (-1.00) Total: + 5.25 Bets - 179 Wins - 25 Places* - 9 Losses - 145 P/(L) 24.01 Nice profit once again and I think this should end up being in profit as the bets in this thread is very rare now. Will keep thi ticking throughout the summer though.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:00 Lingfield I feel Fardyieh from the Clive Brittain yard represents a bit of value here. There are a lot of lightly raced horses in this race and this is one that fits that criteria. Is switched back to the AW after 2 below par runs on turf. Was dropped into a class 4 race from a class 2 LTO and is dropped down to a class 5 race today which could be key. Has also dropped 3lbs in the handicap. Has won on her only run on the AW which was at Kempton over 6 furlongs but judging on pedigree the 7 furlongs should suit. 0.5pts E/W Fardyieh @ 16/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:00 Wolverhampton I think the favourite Mainstay is a worthy favourite but the horse doesn't have the best of the draw and there are others in the race who hold claims. Catherines Call is my selection here, she has only had 5 runs to date so is still open to more improvement. She has already won over the course and distance in a seller where she was slowly away but still managed a nice turn of foot to come up the outside and win by over a length. She then followed up on her handicap debut at Folkstone, she again quickened up well that day to win off a mark of 71. She did disappoint LTO off a mark of 78 but I didn't actually fancy her that day but back to the AW at a course and distance she has won over and down 1lb in the handicap is enough for me to believe she holds every chance here. Shane Kelly is back on board today and he has won on both occasions so far when in the saddle. 0.5pts E/W Catherines Call @ 16/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 20:20 Kempton I like Yankee Storm in this race who has won 3 times on the all weather and looks very well treated on that form considering he won two handicaps in 2008 at Great Leighs and Southwell off marks off 63 and 70. He is 5lbs lower than his last run on the AW which came back in December at this track over 6 furlongs. Has yet to win over this trip of 7 furlongs but went close over course and distance off a mark 6lbs higher back in October. Placed off the same mark of 68 five times in total last year so surely off a mark of 62 today he must be in with a chance, especially from a high draw. 0.5pts Win Yankee Storm @ 13/2 (WillHill - BOG) 20:50 Kempton Two I like in this race are Wadi Wanderer and He's Invincible. Wadi Wanderer has had only three runs to date, finally got off the mark in a 7 furlongs maiden at Southwell LTO when he won by almost 3 lengths. More progress expected especially upped in trip today for the first time. Brian Meehan sends one here tonight in He's Invincible, he is also lightly raced with only 4 runs to date. Was unsuccessful in 3 maidens but won a classified stakes race at the track over 7 furlongs LTO. Upped to a mile today which looks sure to suit and is sure to run another good race. It is also Martin Dwyer's only ride of the night. 0.5pt win Wadi Wanderer @ 7/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 0.5pt win He's Invincible @ 17/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Poor :wall

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 17:20 Southwell Gracie's Gift has won three times over course and distance and once at the course over a furlong further and we know how vital course form can be at this track. He won here 4 starts ago off a mark of 56, is 6lbs higher today so it would take a career best to win off this mark but having finished a close 2nd at this track over 7 furlongs off a mark of 60 on his penultimate start, I am fairly confident he will be able to take this race today. Was also 2nd on turf in a better race LTO off the same mark. Gibbons back on board for the first time since winning on him 4 starts ago. His record on top is 161 so he really does get a fine tune out of him. 2pt win Gracie's Gift @ 11/4 @ (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

17:20 Southwell Gracie's Gift has won three times over course and distance and once at the course over a furlong further and we know how vital course form can be at this track. He won here 4 starts ago off a mark of 56, is 6lbs higher today so it would take a career best to win off this mark but having finished a close 2nd at this track over 7 furlongs off a mark of 60 on his penultimate start, I am fairly confident he will be able to take this race today. Was also 2nd on turf in a better race LTO off the same mark. Gibbons back on board for the first time since winning on him 4 starts ago. His record on top is 161 so he really does get a fine tune out of him. 2pt win Gracie's Gift @ 11/4 @ (VC Bet - BOG)

I actually only got 5/2 so wll be counted at that price which was still terrific value since it won @ 6/5 :nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Small update: Fardyieh (-1.00) Catherines Call (-1.00) Yankee Storm (-0.50) Wadi Wanderer (-0.50) He's Invincible (-0.50) Gracie's Gift + 5.00 Total: +1.50 Bets - 185 Wins - 26 Places* - 9 Losses - 150 P/(L) 25.51 Quite a nice profit in here now :nana Might have a look at the Kempton card tonight to see if anything stands out.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Whilst looking through my past results in my Flat thread I realised I had included one that ran on the AW so I am going to include it in these figures instead as I like to keep the AW and Flat Turf bets seperate:

15:15 Lingfield Aegean Shadow is seeking a hat-trick here and has a great chance of landing it off top weight. Firstly this is Cecil's only horse at the meeting which is a positive for me. The horse itself is still lightly raced having only had 4 runs to date. Won on her debut in a maiden at Leicester over 6 furlongs and then finished 7th in her handicap debut at Kempton over a mile. Returned to action at Lingfield on turf over 6 furlongs where she got up to win by a neck. Won fairly confortably just 15 days ago at Brighton over this trip, has been raised 9lbs for that but off a mark of 79 I am confident she is still on a lenient enough mark. 5pt win Aegean Shadow @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

New figures:Bets - 186 Wins - 26 Places* - 9 Losses - 151 P/(L) 20.51 Still a nice looking profit which I am happy about. I will still be looking to have plays on the AW cards over the summer before deciding whether or not to draw a line through this thread or not.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:30 Lingfield Bintalwaadi looks to have a bit of class about her and she should be more than capable of landing this race. Was 2nd on her debut over 6 furlongs before making all over this course and distance on her 2nd start where she demolished a field of 9. The 2nd place from that race (who was almost 3 lengths behind) has gone on to win 2 handicaps from 3 races since off marks of 78 and 84, that horse is now rated 91 so its fair to say she beat a fairly useful horse. Made her handicap debut LTO at Nottingham where she chased home Decorative who is said to be highly regarded. She was 6 lengths clear of the 3rd place that day so that performance was nothing to be ashamed of. Still lightly raced so there is no doubt in my mind there is still more to come. 2pt win Bintalwaadi @ 11/8 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 18:25 Southwell Course form can prove to be vital here as we know and Three Boars holds an excellent record at this course winning 6 times from 18 runs and placing a further 5 times. His record over course and distance is 3 wins and a place from 6 runs. His three efforts over CD in 2010 has resulted in a win and a place off a 1lb lower mark than today and a 4th place off a mark 2lbs higher. David Probert was on board for his last win here and that was his first time on board, he has been having a magnificent season and is back on board tonight. He very rarely rides for thr trainer so it is a significant jockey booking once again having only previously been on board four times for Goslings. 1pt win Three Boars @ 5/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:30 Southwell I feel Hughie Morrison's Realt Na Mara could be the value pick of this race. The gelding has won three times from nine visits at this track and has placed a further four times so its clear he acts well at this track. Did make a winning reappearnace over this trip at at Lingffield LTO and faces a 3lb rise in the weights for that win. Should come on for that run though and despite being off a career high mark, he definately holds claims in this race. The Confessor should have a good chance of landing a hat-trick if he takes to the fibresand and I would have him down as the main danger. 0.5pts E/W Realt Na Mara @ 12/1 (>Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:30 Lingfield Mahmood Al Zarooni sends just the one horse for Godolphin to Lingfield today. From his short time in racing he has built up a decent record at Lingfield with 5 winners from 11 runners and a further 2 of those placing. This is a 45% win rate which is very impressive. Frankie Dettori has a 33% record for the new trainer with 8 winners from 24 rides and a further 8 of those have placed. Onto the horse itself, Deep South has only had two runs to date, he won a maiden race at Kempton in good style over the distance back in June before going on to run in a listed race at Ascot last month. Was 5/8 that day but in no way disgraced himself finishing only 4 lengths off the winner. Big drop down in class today and despite others in the race being relatively unexposed, I fancy this one to improve the most from his previous 2 runs. 2pt win Deep South @ 13/8 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Profit slowly going down in my AW thread now, Deep South fluffed the start there and probably cost him to be fair, just didn't pick up in the straight.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Hopefully a change of fortune on the AW for me: 17:20 Kempton Shubaat has a good chance of landing this handicap where several hold strong claims. A couple of lightly raced horses line up so it could be a case of who improves the most. My selection has only had 2 runs to date, won easily on his debut at Doncaster over the distance, was eased down to win by 4 lengths after kicking clear inside the final furlong. Was upped in trip on his handicap debut at Haydock LTO where he finished a disappointing 3/5. Makes the switch to the AW today, dropped 1lb in the handicap and will definately appreciated the step back to 12 furlongs I feel. Phillip Robinson also takes over the ride. This is Robinson's only ride of the day and the trainers only entry for the day which is positives for me. The combo tend to do this quite regularly and more often than not it brings good results. 1pt win Shubaat @ 5/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Small update: Bets - 191 Wins - 26 Places* - 9 Losses - 156 P/(L) 13.51 Not been having much luck or too many bets on the AW lately but will be hoping to get the profit back up very soon with the AW meetings increasing over the coming days. Going to run this until the end of the year since it was December I started this up, I plan to have a points staked and returned in that one as I forgot to include it in this thread but profits are accurate and anybody can check that.

[markmywords]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Always a good read Stu

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Thanks mate, much appreciated :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 20:20 Wolverhampton Going to take my chances on Mark Johnston's colt Hajoum in this race. Made the switch from Godolphin to Johnston for this season where he has managed just the one win from eight runs. He clearly isn't the most straightforward horse, especially since he produced a fantastic effort at Ascot in the Buckingham Palace handicap where he finished 4/26 off a mark of 92 (3/16 in group) but has been well beaten on all four starts since. Has now dropped back down to a mark of 88 which is only 1lb higher than his sole win this season which came at Catterick over the 7 furlong trip so he is coming back down to a decent mark. It does seem this is his best trip considering he has won over it and the Ascot race was also over 7 furlongs. Has only appeared on the AW twice, both for Godolphin and both over 6 furlongs. Placed at Kempton, only going down by a short head. Was 4th on his only other effort which also came at Kempton. Doesn't have a bad draw tonight and if in the mood, he should go close. 0.5pts E/W Hajoum @ 9/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Long overdue winner on the AW, cracking price as well, was backed off the boards into 4/1 :loon Stuck his neck out well to win :nana

[BKI Punter]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Christ mate, great day with the two winners and a place. :notworthy

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Thanks mate :ok Don't often get days like this so cherish them while I can :lol

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:50 Lingfield Cracking class 3 handicap here with a lot of the top yards being represented in the race. There is a short priced favourite currently but I am willing to oppose him as there is definately a lot more strength to the race. Won't be a surprise that I am going for a Mark Johnston horse but I feel Autumn Riches has strong claims. Four races to date, got off the mark at the 2nd attempt when winning a maiden race at Pontefract over a mile in Good To Firm ground. Was sent handicapping off a mark of 83 where he finished 7/17 at Haydock (one mile, GS conditions). Dropped 2lbs for his next run at Windsor, again over a mile. He got up well to win by a head in Soft conditions (3rd place a further 4 lengths behind) and it looks like the step up to 10 furlongs today is a wise move and is likely to suit. Raised 6lbs for that run and although he is turned out again rather quickly (6 days) he should have a chance in this race, especially if he takes well to the All Weather surface as he is definately still on the upgrade in my opinion. Fallon was on board for the win LTO and he is in the saddle once again today. 0.5pt win Autumn Riches @ 8/1 (>Bet365 - BOG) 1.5pts Autumn Riches to place @ 6/5 (>Bet365)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Autumn Riches has been withdrawn.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 21:15 Kempton Ottoman Empire looks to still be on the upgrade and is definately capable of landing this race on his seasonal reappearance. Only had 7 runs to date but has not been on track since October 2009 and although the lengthy break is a bit of a concern, he has proven to go well from a break previously albeit not as long as this one. Has won from having around three months off the track when he finally broke his maiden tag at Southwell over the distance in August 2009. He then followed that up with a win next time out which came a month later at this track over a furlong further, this was his first race in handicap company and he stayed on strongly in the final furlong to get up by a head off a mark of 85. He then placed in a small field at the track again on his penultimate start off a mark of 89 before ending 2009 with a poor effort on turf. Will definately have a great chance of winning if fit for this race, I think the drop back to 11 furlongs may be the best idea as the extra furlong may just stretch him on his reappearance. Has been gelded over the winter which may spark some extra improvement from the horse. Trainer has been in fantastic form, had a winner today from just the one entry, Ted Durcan was also on board that winner and the 2 of them have a fantastic strike rate when teaming up (18%, 23% in 2010) and if you change that to Kempton only it makes just as good reading (22%, 25% in 2010). 0.5pt win Ottoman Empire @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG) 1pt Ottoman Empire to place @ 13/8 (BlueSquare)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Nice way to end the evening :nana Ottoman Empire was well backed into 7/2 and won by around 2 lengths.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 20:50 Kempton Fantastic Strike is still a maiden but he produced his best effort in his short career when stepped up to 12 furlongs at Beverley LTO. Battled on gamely inside the final furlong and was only beaten half a length. He just couldn't reach the short priced favourite who found a little bit extra close to home. Makes the switch to the AW for the first time today so part of todays run may depend on how he will cope with the surface but I am going to take it on trust that he will handle the conditions well and go one better today for a stable bang in form. I rate Home Advantage as the main danger. 1pt win Fantastic Strike @ 4/1 (VC Bet - BOG)