Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections One more for today: 16:30 Wolverhampton Spinning Ridge ran a solid race over course and distance on his penultimate start off a mark just 1lb lower than he runs off today. Was only beaten by half a length that day and if he produces a similar effort today I can't see why he can't go on to win this time. He definately acts well at this track having placed 4 times and won once at the course out of a total of 2 career wins and 6 career places. 0.5pts E/W Spinning Ridge @ 12/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Wee catch up then: Wednesday 3rd February: Sunshine Always (-1.00) Thursday 4th February: The Cuckoo (2nd @ 25/1) + 3.63 Friday 5th February: The Mighty Mod (-1.00) Monday 8th February: Stash (-1.00) Spinning Ridge (2nd @ 14/1) + 1.25 Total: + 1.88 Bets - 116 Wins - 18 Places* - 6 Losses - 92 P/(L) 28.75 Slight profit again after a couple of nice places, nearing 30 points in profit now which is fantastic, going much better than I expected. The Cuckoo and Spinning Ridge were both close to winning and that would have boosted the profit even further but I will take the place money :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:50 Southwell Monte Mayor was a non-runner at Wolverhampton yesterday so this suggests to me that this race was preferred for him. He has finished 2nd and 1st on his last two outings in seller and claimer races over course and distance and I see no reason why he can't go on to win again here today. Has 5 other wins over this 5 furlong trip which have all come on the AW at Wolverhampton. 1pt win Monte Mayor @ 5/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections ot16:20 Southwell Always Dixie from the Johnston yard tries this trip for the first time and is also running in blinkers for the first time. Only had 5 runs to date, has not shown much at all so far but with the blinkers on and a different trip being tried, I feel this one must have a slight chance of going in at a nice price. 0.5pt win Always Dixie @ 6/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Thanks for your comment on my thread. May have pushed you in the other direction if I had included the fact that Harry Findlay owned the horse for its first 2 runs but sold it to a Mrs Baker and Partners. Now what was the trainers name? Do you think Harry had a few quid on!!!?

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 18:40 Kempton Nice class 4 handicap this and I fancy Poyle Meg to take the spoils. She has won twice over course and distance on her last two outings at Kempton. In fact her only other run at Kempton was over a shorter distance where she finished 3rd so she has a 100% record over course and distance. She won here off a mark of 80 LTO and has only been raised 3lbs for the win. Jim Crowley takes the mount again tonight and from a high draw I expect her to put in a bold bid. She has only had 14 races to date, she finally won a maiden race on her 10th run but has won twice and placed twice in four races since so she is progressing well and I fancy her to continue that progression tonight. I would rate Desert Vision and Mister Green as the main dangers. 1pt win Poyle Meg @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:20 Southwell Victory Quest absolutely loves it here at Southwell and he recorded his 12th victory at the track LTO over a shorter trip. Stayed on strongly to win by a head that day so the step back up to a course and distance he has won over 6 times in the past will be welcomed. Is raised 6lbs for that success but has won off marks of 79 and 73 in his younger days and won off a mark just 2lbs lower last year. Winston takes the ride again, he has been on board for the horses last three victories. 1pt Each Way Victory Quest @ 13/2 (Sportingbet)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:20 Southwell Elusive Warrior is another one who loves this course, his last 5 runs have all been over course and distance and the form reads 22112 ranging from a class 4 handicap down to a class 6 seller. Is dropped 2lbs from his place LTO and is only 4lbs higher than his win round here on his penultimate start although Declan Cannon takes off an important 5lbs which technically makes him 1lb lower than that mark. Declan is a very capable jockey on his day and he was on board this horse when 2nd LTO and I believe he can win on him here today. 1pt win Elusive Warrior @ 3/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 13:15 Southwell Several course/course and distance winners go to post here but the one I like is Positivity. Brian Smart's filly is only 4 years old and won over course and distance on her penultimate start off a mark of 49. Raced off 53 LTO over course and distance and finished 4/7. Runs off the same mark today but stable jokcey Tom Eaves takes the ride today so I rate her chances higher with him on board. She is still 4 years old so more progression can be expected. Hard to tell how the race will be run with no out and out front runner in this race but I feel Eaves may take up the running with Positivty and look to slip the field turning into the home straight. Granakey and Special Cuvee are the two main dangers and are rightfully at the top end of the betting market. 1pt win Positivity @ 11/2 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Nice winner at 7/1 today which will do nicely :clap 19:15 Wolverhampton Two horses in this race that I like who have been performing terrificly over course and distance as of late. They made the 1-2 in their last race and I feel they can do so again here tonight. Augustus John is raised only 3lbs for the win which was just over a length in front of 2nd placed Leyte Gulf who re-opposes here tonight off the same terms so he receives a 3lb pull in the weights. Augustus John has form of 31221 over course and distance with Leyte Gulf having a similar record which reads 1251212. They are only both 3lbs higher than there last winning mark which is well within their capabilities over a course and distance they both clearly act on. 0.75pt win Augustus John @ 11/2 (Stan James - BOG) 0.75pt win Leyte Gulf @ 9/2 (WillHill - BOG) 0.5pt reverse forecast I like the 18:45 race as well but not got much time to stud properly so its a no bet for me although I do like the chances of Thebes since the Johnston stable is in fine form today with 3 winners and I should really back it but just going to leave it out. With regards to the reverse forecast for this bet I will count it as two bets in my total bets category.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

14:50 Southwell Monte Mayor was a non-runner at Wolverhampton yesterday so this suggests to me that this race was preferred for him. He has finished 2nd and 1st on his last two outings in seller and claimer races over course and distance and I see no reason why he can't go on to win again here today. Has 5 other wins over this 5 furlong trip which have all come on the AW at Wolverhampton. 1pt win Monte Mayor @ 5/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

Just won the 17:15 Wolverhampton, argh at missing it :wall

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Tuesday 9th February: Monte Mayor (-1.00) Always Dixie (-1.00) Wednesday 10th February: Poyle Meg (-1.00) Thursday 11th February: Victory Quest (2nd @ 13/2) + 0.30 Elusive Warrior (-1.00) Friday 12th February: Positivity (1st @ 7/1) + 7.00 Augustus John (1st @ 5/1) + 4.13 Leyte Gulf (-0.75) Reverse Forecast (-1.00) Totals: + 5.68 Bets - 126 Wins - 20 Places* - 7 Losses - 99 P/(L) 34.43 A nice couple of winners yesterday takes me over the 30pts profit mark which I am delighted about. Surprised at the prices I got for both my selections, especially the 7/1 on Positivity as it drifted near the off. Still need to get round to counting up my pts staked and pts returned just to make it more accurate but I don't think anybody would doubt my honesty and the posts are there for anybody to check. :nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:00 Lingfield Cracking race in prospect here with many of these racing against each other recently which is making things harder to crack. Had a quick look at the market on betfair and one definately stands out on the prices just now but I realise the SP will most likely not be the same by tomorrow so hopefully I have time to get up in the morning to get a decent price. The Johnston trained Cairnsmore will most likely go off favourite and is in with a great chance although off a mark of 96 in his first handicap race may be quite tough for him despite hacking up at Kempton on his UK debut. Baylini won a similar contest LTO at the end of January and escapes with just a 1lb rise in the weights so she will be dangerous once again off a mark of 90. There was a tightly bunched finish that day which involved four that re-oppose here in Confidentiality, Winter Fever, Mafeking and Full Toss who were all within a length of Baylini. Out of those I like Confidentiality best and she is the one that stands out at current prices on the exchanges for me at the minute at 19.5. She finished just a short head behind Baylini as she was just headed at the finish and should go close once more off the same mark today having won over course and distance back in December off a 7lb lower mark and placing off a 1lb lower mark over course and distance on his penultimate start. Its hard to discount many of these and it should make for a very competitive race. 0.5pts E/W Confidentiality @ SP *May take a price in the morning but if I don't come on to post I will just bet @ SP and risk losing the price.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

15:00 Lingfield Cracking race in prospect here with many of these racing against each other recently which is making things harder to crack. Had a quick look at the market on betfair and one definately stands out on the prices just now but I realise the SP will most likely not be the same by tomorrow so hopefully I have time to get up in the morning to get a decent price. The Johnston trained Cairnsmore will most likely go off favourite and is in with a great chance although off a mark of 96 in his first handicap race may be quite tough for him despite hacking up at Kempton on his UK debut. Baylini won a similar contest LTO at the end of January and escapes with just a 1lb rise in the weights so she will be dangerous once again off a mark of 90. There was a tightly bunched finish that day which involved four that re-oppose here in Confidentiality, Winter Fever, Mafeking and Full Toss who were all within a length of Baylini. Out of those I like Confidentiality best and she is the one that stands out at current prices on the exchanges for me at the minute at 19.5. She finished just a short head behind Baylini as she was just headed at the finish and should go close once more off the same mark today having won over course and distance back in December off a 7lb lower mark and placing off a 1lb lower mark over course and distance on his penultimate start. Its hard to discount many of these and it should make for a very competitive race. 0.5pts E/W Confidentiality @ SP *May take a price in the morning but if I don't come on to post I will just bet @ SP and risk losing the price.

Taken 16/1 @ WillHill

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:45 Kempton Viva Vettori is still fairly unexposed having only had 11 runs to date. Five of those have came on the AW where he has notched up 2 wins and a place. He has form of 12 over course and distance off marks of 84 and 87 in class 3 handicaps. This is a big step up into Listed company but with a high draw and a good course record I am willing to give this horse a chance at a fairly big price. Has had 235 days off the track but should go well fresh having won after a 7-8 month break back in 2008. 0.5pts E/W Viva Vettori @ 16/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Spooner]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Brilliant Stu. :clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Cheers Spooner :ok Can't believe I got double the price it went off at. Won fairly easily as well I thought and one to follow NTO maybe.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:10 Wolverhampton I was on The Cuckoo at a big pricewhen he finished 2nd at Southwell LTO, kicked clear and I thought he had the race won but was a bit one paced inside the final furlong and was beaten by Restless Genius who stayed on strongly. I think there could be a similar sort of story here today as this trip is slightly further than the 5 furlongs at Southwell and the higher draw will not help things here. Therefore I am looking into the lower stalls and opting for Shakespeare's Son who has put in a few creditable efforts over 5/6 furlongs on the AW lately. Has won over the distance at Southwell off a mark of 61 in which is his only win to date, seems a hard horse to win with considering he has 14 places to his name so that is why I will be backing him each way. Runs off the same mark he has run off in his last 3 races which has results in form of 343. Has just had the one run over course and distance where he finished 6/11 off a mark 6lbs higher, a high draw in stall 10 that day didn't help his cause and should go better here today from a lower draw and being down in the handicap. 0.5pts E/W Shakespeare's Son @ 5/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[fintron]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections forgot to post in here yesterday, well done with Viva Vettori, great call. And well done Trotter too (to save posting in the other thread as well)!!:clap:clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Cheers fintron :ok Today's selection was a bit disappointing but at least I was right to avoid The Cuckoo.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:00 Lingfield Two course and distance winners that I like here. Firstly Murrin is back down to a handy mark having won off three higher marks than he runs off today, one of which was over course and distance. Has also won over 7 furlongs at the course. Made his first run in three months over course and distance in a seller LTO, finished 4th and the 2nd that day re-opposes off level weights again but I feel Murrin will strip fitter for this race and will reverse that form. I Confess is another course and distance winner and had a good run over course and distance LTO when he finished 3rd off the same mark he runs off today, did have a 7lb claimer on board that day thought but Andrew Heffernan takes off 5 today. That was a tougher race than this and since 3 of his 4 Lingfield wins have all been off higher marks, he should be dangerous. 0.5pts E/W Murrin @ 11/1 (Betfred - BOG) 0.5pt win I Confess @ 9/2 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:05 Southwell Very competitive affair this, especially with several course and distance winners lining up. My selection lies with Guto who has four course and distance wins to his name. Two of those wins have been off today's mark of 65 so he is definately well handicapped. Was 2nd over course and distance LTO off a mark of 67 in a 7 runner race where 4 of those line up today including the winner Where's Reiley but due to the 6lb rise in the weights and the drop of 2 for Guto, I feel the placings can be reversed. Kelly Harrison is on board again who takes off 3lbs. Guto beat one of the main dangers today in Figaro Flyer over course and distance in August 2009, they were on level weights that day but today Guto will be 4lbs lighter so I expect him to hold that form. 1pt win Guto @ 13/2 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:35 Lingfield Handsome Cross has been running very consistently over the minimum trip in his last 3 outings. He has been running on strongly in all three races where twice he was rather unlucky not to win the race due to being denied a clear run and he was only beaten by a short margin LTO. He has been raised another 3lbs without winning but he is back up in trip to 6 furlongs. He won over this course and distance back in December off a mark of 59, is 8lb higher today but due to placings off marks 3lbs and 5lbs lower, I feel this mark is within his capabilities. He is up in grade but the race should be run to suit due to the 2 front runners in Whiskey Junction and Thoughtsofstardom and due to the smaller field, he is less likely to hit trouble in running when making a challenge. 1pt win Handsome Corss @ 11/4 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:00 Lingfield Going to have a small each way on Bold Rose here who I managed to tip up when she won @ 50/1 over course and distance back in December. That was her first run over 7 furlongs and she has run over the distance twice from three outings since, resulting in a 3rd over course and distance and a 5th at Wolverhampton. Those were both off higher marks than she runs off today ans she is now only 3lbs higher than her win over course and distance after dropping down another 2lbs from her last run. Still only 4 years old so more progression can be expected. Lee Newnes takes off 5lbs again, he was on board for her only victory to date. This is a slightly tougher race but if she breaks well I think she should be involved in the finish. 0.25pts E/W Bold Rose @ 28/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Saturday 13th February: Confidentiality (-1.00) Sunday 14th February: Viva Vettori (1st @ 8/1) + 10.00 Monday 15th February: Shakespeare's Son (-1.00) Wednesday 17th February: Murrin (-1.00) I Confess (-0.50) Thursday 18th February Guto (-1.00) Friday 19th February: Handsome Cross (-1.00) Bold Rose (-0.50) Total: + 4.00 Handomse Cross almost made it a bigger profit for the week having been caught in the final yards to be beaten by a short head, drifted out to 15/2 as well so would have been a fantastic price. Bets - 134 Wins - 21 Places* - 7 Losses - 106 P/(L) 38.43 Nearering that 40pts profit which I am delighted with :nana

[Lars]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Was on Handsome Cross this morning, but with a drift like that I'd effectively given up on it! Gutted :sad Looks unlucky as a horse, rather than one reluctant to finish, hopefully won't be massacred by the handicapper (again). Good to see you're making a profit :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Cheers mate, he was beaten by the gambled on horse in the end so it will be interesting to see if he can win NTO, depends what the handicapper does I suppose but thats several 2nds places in a row now for him.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:50 Lingfield I still feel Mr Willis is progressing with only 12 races to date and the fact he is still 4 years old. His last 2 races were over inadequate trips, firstly he was 2nd at Wolverhampton over 9 furlongs off a mark just 1lb lower. He was then 5th LTO in this grade over 7 furlongs at this track off the same mark he runs off today. Was running on that day which suggests this step back up to a mile today will suit, especially since he has a 100% record over the distance and over course and distance. It might be wrong to say the 7 furlongs trip LTO was inadequate as he has won over 7 furlongs 3 times at this track and placed over it at Wolverhampton but I feel he is best over the mile trip. Steve Drowne who is very familiar with the horse is on board once again today. 1pt win Mr Willis @ SP

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:40 Lingfield Several with chances in this race but my vote lands with Pegasus Again who I think gets off fairly lightly with only a 3lb rise in the weights for his course and distance success LTO. Won by a length to Den's Gift who re-opposes off 2lb better terms today but I feel that won't be enough to reverse the form, especially since the horse has a string of close 2nds to his name and comes off the back of a poor effort at Kempton LTO although that was up in class. Pegasus Again also won a maiden over course and distance and has also won at the track over 7 furlongs. Will need to break well today to have a good chance of winning since he is drawn in stall 9 but he was drawn in stall 8 from 9 runners when winning here LTO so I feel the high draw won't be that much of a problem for him. 1pt win Pegasus Again @ 7/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Noticed that I missed my bet at Wolverhampton yesterday in this, it lost so I will quote it in later and add it into the figures. I'm glad it didn't win now since I forgot to post it in here as at least there won't be any objections to me adding a loser in the thread :lol