Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 13:25 Lingfield Femme De Fer is still lightly raced with only 6 races to date. Has run some solid races so far over 6 furlongs and 5 furlongs which is today's trip. Dropped down in trip to 5 furlongs when switched to the all weather and has form of 233. Does have a wide draw to contend with but Adam Kirby knows the horse well and has been riding well as of late. Finished ahead of Lithaam LTO who has the plum draw and that is the only factor I can see reversing those placings but Femme De Fer is only 3 and has plenty more to come. 1pt win Femme De Fer @ 11/4 (VC - BOG) 14:00 Lingfield I feel this race is between Thoughtsofstardom and Edith's Boy. Thoughtsofstardom is a recent winner over the distance at Southwell off a mark just 4lbs higher. Had a 3lb claimer on board that day though but he is a 3 time course and distance winner, all those wins have came off marks of 58 and 69 (3lb claimer on board on all 3 occasions) and he went a close 2nd over course and distance before his win at Southwell. Chris Caitlin on board today who is a great all weather jockey. For me he is a bit too short in the market and I will be siding with Edith's Boy who does have a wide draw to contend with. Won over course and distance LTO, has been raised 5lbs for that run but he is still young and there could be more to come from him. He has won over the distance at Kempton as well. Hayley Turner on board again. The form of that race LTO can be franked in the previous race as a couple who were in behind him that day re oppose in the 13:25 race. His other 3 runs over course and distance reads 423 so he seems to enjoy it here. 1pt win Edith's Boy @ 3/1 (VC - BOG) 14:30 Lingfield No Bet from me but I expect Tranquil Tiger to win but his odds are a bit too short for me to get involved in and nothing else in the race really stands out for me.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 13:55 Wolverhampton Striker Torres made his first run on the All Weather on Sunday over course and distance and finished 2nd in behind the in form. Istiqdaam. Is still a maiden but runs off the same mark today and te visor which was fitted for the first time LTO stay on again today. Did seem to be a bit of a hard ride, hung left and head carriage was awkward but hopefully he will be over that exploits today and should be thereabouts again. Is on the drift at the moment which isn't a good sign but I am still going to stick with it. 1pt E/W @ 6/1 (VC - BOG)

[markmywords]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections some predictions today Stu. Good work pays:clap:clap:clap one for each winner

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

some predictions today Stu. Good work pays:clap:clap:clap one for each winner

Cheers mate :ok Two good winners today at nice prices as well, that will be the thread in profit from that. Miss Lesley made all and dug in deep to hang on when challenged by the favourite at the end, stuck her neck out well. A repeat of tactics next time out could see her win again so I will be keeping my eye on her. Striker Torres kicked for home early and it paid off as he also hung on well to win, could also be another one worth following next time out. Femme De fer was disappointed and weakened around a furlong out, possibly a furlong and a half out. Edith's Boy also weakened out of his race, picked the wrong one since I did say the race was between the winner and my selection but never mind. Saturday 19th December: Miss Lesley (1st @ 6/1) +10.80 (I got 9/1) Femme De Fer (Unpl) -1.00 Edith's Boy (Unpl) -1.00 Striker Torres (1st @ 15/2) +9.00 +17.80 for the day :nana Bets - 31 Wins - 6 Places - 0 Losses - 25 P/(L) 6.45 Nice to see the thread come into profit, was delighted with the two winners today, especially at the prices I got. One was backed in to 6/1 whenI took 9/1 and the other drifted out to 15/2 when I took 6/1 so was kind of lucky with the better odds on Striker Torres.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:15 Kempton Thunderstruck has been in great form on the All Weather recently notching up 2 wins and 2 places and a 4th in his last 5 runs. His 4th place LTO came in an amateur riders handicap race, so with a more experienced jockey back on board he could return to the winning enclosure. Has only had 2 runs at this distance on the AW which have both came here over course and distance. He won here off a mark of 60 in a handicap and was only beaten a short head in 2nd place off a mark of 68 last month. He is 4lbs higher for the run today but Chris Catlin knows the horse well and should get the horse involved. 1pt win @ SP 16:15 Kempton Elna Bright has had a fantastic season racking up 3 wins on turf and 1 win on the AW which came LTO off a mark of 86. This was over 7 furlongs but the horse has winning form over the mile trip on turf so the extra furlong today will not be a problem. He has a 4lb rise in the weights to cope with today but I believe he can defy that from a low draw. It is preferred to be drawn high here but he likes to be held up so shouldn't lose too much at the start due to this. 1pt win @ 7/1 (Bet 365 - BOG) 16:45 Kempton Wrote this about Resplendent Alpha LTO:

Resplendent Alpha has been on poor form lately and hasn't placed since March although that was over course and distance when she finished 2nd off a mark of 80. Has put in a couple of good runs since but has been well beaten in her most recent efforts. She has also won over course and distance off a mark of 73 and has won over the distance off a mark of 78 at Lingfield which came back in February. Can take advtantage of a dropping mark today as she runs off a mark of 69 here.

Ran on well to take 2nd place that day, was only beaten by 1/4 of a length. Runs off the same mark today but does have a low draw here in stall 2 which isn't ideal. This may not be as much of a burden since she likes to be held up off the pace as she should just tuck in nicely at the tail end of the field when coming across from stall 2 and will run on strongly at the end again. 1pt win Resplendent Alpha @ 5/1 (Bet 365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections When will I get over the Kempton burden? :lol Hopefully tomorrow: 14:30 Kempton I Confess ran a good race LTO over course and distance when finishing 3rd in behind Seek The Fair Land who landed his 2nd win a row that day. Has a better draw today so should definately enter calculations here off the same mark of 72. Has only ever won at Lingfield with all 4 of his wins coming there. 2 over today's trip and 2 over the mile trip. Is well handicapped as well having won off 77 at Lingfield (5lb claimer on board though). 0.5pt win I Confess @ SP 17:05 Kempton I am siding with Cool Sands for the 3rd time in a row here today, has a good high draw and has been knocking on the door lately although has lacked a finish in his last 2 runs which is a bit of a worry. Has won over course and distance 3 times and is very well handicapped compared to those runs off a mark of 55 today. Is 11lbs lower than his last win which came in November last year and he is now 15lbs lower than his highest winning mark. All of his wins have came on the AW and 8 of those have all came off marks 60 or above. 0.5pt win Cool Sands @ SP

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 13:25 Southwell First Swallow has a 100% record over course and distance winning 1 from 1. Made all the running that day and won by a length. Attempted the same tactics LTO at the course over 6 furlongs off 5lbs higher. Was a good effort and is likely to be in the mix of things here off the same mark especially dropping back down to 5 furlongs which is the distance both this horses wins have came over. Makin takes the ride again having been on the horse for the win here and the 2nd LTO. Mr Funshine could be one worth watching at a nice price, is a course and distance winner off a mark 6lbs higher and was 3rd LTO behind Best One but is now 6lbs better off in the weights. 1pt win First Swallow @ 4/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 12:55 Southwell Nightjar has made the shift from the Johnston stables to Kevin Ryan who is a very capable trainer. The horses course and distance record stands at 111 and he was 2nd LTO over a shorter trip of 6 furlongs but ran on well despite being short of room entering the final furlong. The step back up to 7 furlongs today will be perfect for him on his first run for his new yard. Is raised 1lb from his last run but is only 3lbs higher than his last win which came here over 6 furlongs. 2pt win @ 2/1 (VC - BOG) Not sure about the rest of the card, had a look through the cards but can't quite come to a decision on them so at the moment I won't be having a play in the other races :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:25 Wolverhampton Nice open contest this but I will side with recent winner Confidentiality who is also a 2 time course and distance winner and a 4 time course winner. Her 2 other course wins came over 8 and a half furlongs but she has won over the extended 9 furlongs twice before as already mentioned. Won over 10 furlongs at Lingfield LTO and faces a 4lb rise in the weights. She is now back up to a mark of 83 which shes won off before. Likes to track the leaders which can be quite useful at this track as it favours those that have the ability to hold a good position rather than those that take time to pick up near the end. Beat Iron Out by 14 lengths LTO and I would rate him as a danger but can't see him reversing the placings here. 1pt win Confidentiality @ SP

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:25 Southwell Hit The Switch has a 100% record over course and distance with 2 wins from 2 runs which have both come in the past 2 months off marks of 46 and 56. Is only raised 3lbs for the win LTO when he beat Jonnie Skull (who has a great course record)by a neck. The horse is just 3 years old so there is plenty of progression still to come and I feel he can keep his 100% record here today. 1pt win Hit The Switch @ 10/3 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Will update figures soon. 16:45 Wolverhampton This looks a very tough race to crack with many of these in good recent form. The market shows how close this race is but I am going to go outwith the top three in the market and go for Ebraam. His last 3 races seem a bit strange as he has run in 2 class 6 claimers and a listed race in his last three runs which is a big gap in terms of class. One of those claimers was over course and distance which he won off a mark of 95 (5lb claimer on board). Was 2nd in the listed race at Lingfield over slightly further off the same mark. Runs off 97 today which is 4lbs than his highest winning mark although he did have a 3lb claimer on board that day but he has won off a mark of 92 (over course and distance) without a claimer on board. If he reproduces the form from the listed race 2 outings ago I feel he can win this race over a course and distance he loves (3 wins and 1 place from 7 runs over CD). 0.75pt win @ 9/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Ebraam was 2nd :sad 13:55 Lingfield I am going to take a chance with Imperial Skylight here. I think he can finally take advantage of a falling mark here today having won off a mark 9lbs higher at Kempton over the distance back in February. Was also a close 2nd over course and distance back in March off a mark 12lbs higher. Since then he has not come closer than 2 lengths of winning in his 16 races since. Bold Rose is upped in trip for the first time so could be interesting. Has won off a mark 4lbs higher on the AW and 8lbs higher on turf. Has also placed off higher marks on the AW and on turf. Should be interesting here as jockey takes off a further 5lbs. Bioth do have wide draws which won't help so I will be keeping to small stakes on both. 0.5pt win Imperial Skylight @ 8/1 (WillHill - BOG) 0.25pts E/W Bold Rose @ 33/1 (VC - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 21:20 Kempton Siding with course and distance winner Defector here. His only win to date came over course and distance back in September off a mark just 2lbs lower. Has placed on three of his other 4 runs over course and distance off marks of 71 and 72 so clearly loves it here. Runs off a mark of 70 today. Has a nice high draw in stall 13 which will be handy. Space Station may be worth watching but has a low draw which puts me off a bit and the horse is still a maiden. 1pt win Defector @ 8/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[fintron]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

Ebraam was 2nd :sad 13:55 Lingfield I am going to take a chance with Imperial Skylight here. I think he can finally take advantage of a falling mark here today having won off a mark 9lbs higher at Kempton over the distance back in February. Was also a close 2nd over course and distance back in March off a mark 12lbs higher. Since then he has not come closer than 2 lengths of winning in his 16 races since. Bold Rose is upped in trip for the first time so could be interesting. Has won off a mark 4lbs higher on the AW and 8lbs higher on turf. Has also placed off higher marks on the AW and on turf. Should be interesting here as jockey takes off a further 5lbs. Bioth do have wide draws which won't help so I will be keeping to small stakes on both. 0.5pt win Imperial Skylight @ 8/1 (WillHill - BOG) 0.25pts E/W Bold Rose @ 33/1 (VC - BOG)

well done with Bold Rose, drifted to 50/1 with the bog :clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Thanks fintron, delighted to have got a 50/1 winner :nana Probably won't be able to update this until the new year, be a lot of catching up to do but the thread should be a fair bit in profit now which is always good :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:45 Southwell Special Cuvee ran well over course and distance on his penultimate start off the same mark and has won at the course over 6 furlongs. Has also won overthe distance on turf off a mark of 69 but has won off a mark as high as 72. Still only 4 years old so more progression could still be possible. 1pt win @ 4/1 (VC - BOG) Will try and update figures once the weekend has passed, a lot to catch up on.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:45 Lingfield Only a game can follow up with another course and distance win here having only been raised 3lbs for his win LTO in a similar race over course and distance. Shouldn't take too much to win this race and a repeat performance should at least see him go close. Kirby takes the ride agan. Has won off a mark as high as 72 in the past but has finally hit form again lately with a 2nd and 1st in his last 2 outings. 1pt win @ SP

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:35 Kempton This is a very interesting contest and many of these have claims. I'm going to put my trust that War Of The Roses is fit for his first run in 267 days. Has won coming back fresh in the past and has done the majority of his winning over 12-13 furlongs. His last win came off this mark over the distance at Lingfield in a Class 4 handicap but since then was 6/8 up in class over the same course and distance albeit was only beaten just over a length. Didn't run well here on his last appearance but this was over an inadequate trip of 16 furlongs. Has a nice high draw in stall 12 which is a positive at this course. He has run at the course before but not over the 12 furlong trip so it will be interesting to see how he gets on. 0.5pt win @ 25/1 (Bet >365 - BOG) 0.5pt to place @ 8/1 (Bet >365)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Sunday 20th December: Thunderstruck (3rd) (-1.00) Elna Bright (Unpl) (-1.00) Resplendent Alpha (Unpl) (-1.00) Monday 21st December I Confess (Unpl) (-0.50) Cool Sands (2nd) (-0.50) Tuesday 22nd December Nightjar (3rd) (-2.00) First Swallow (2nd) (-1.00) Saturday 26th December: Confidetiality (2nd) (-1.00) Sunday 27th December: Hit The Switch (Unpl) (-1.00) Monday 28th December: Ebraam (2nd) (-0.75) Wednesday 30th December: Imperial Skylight (-0.50) Bold Rose + 15.62 Defector + 8.00 Friday 1st January: Special Cuvee (-1.00) Saturday 2nd January: Only A Game (-1.00) Sunday 3rd January: War Of The Roses (-1.00) Total for that + 10.47 Bets - 47 Wins - 8 Places* - 0 Losses - 39 P/(L) 16.82 *Places only refer to an each bet if the horse is placed and didn't win so I won't have many qualifiers for that. Nicely in profit now which I am chuffed about, that was a huge catch up that and hopefully I won't drag it behind too much next time. Just realised I haven't made a total for the amount of points I have staked and been returned and I need that in order to do a ROI% so I plan to do that in the coming week since I have plenty of time and maybe, maybe do the records for each track but just depends how much time it will take :lol:ok Oh and I finally broke my Kempton duck with Defector :nana:nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:35 Wolverhampton This race seems to be the best race in what is a fairly average/poor card and I am going to take my chance with an outsider here. National Monument is only 4 years old and has only had the 5 runs to date. He has had 2 runs over course and distance in which he has finished 3rd and 4th and also finished 3rd on his first outing at Kempton over a mile. In those races he has finished behind two of Mark Johnston's horses who have won off marks of 73 and 80 since. Apotheosis finished behind him when he was 3rd at Kempton and has went on to win from a mark of 60 and placed off a mark of 66. Campli and Rosko finished over 2 lengths in front of him over course and distance when he was 4th and they have went on to win off marks of 67 and 65 respectively. He has had a 100 day break and maybe the trainer will have got him right for this, could improve for this back at a suitable trip after failing over further in his last 2 outings. Runs off his lowest mark yet off a mark of 60. 0.5pts E/W National Monument @ 40/1 (BlueSquare)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 17:05 Wolverhampton Really can't see past Blue Lyric here who has won 2 races from 5 starts. Her 2 wins have both came over the distance on the All Weather at Kempton winning off marks of 63 and 69 in Nursery races. Beat Master Of Dance LTO by a length, that horse won yesterday off a mark of 81 (3lb higher than that race). She is 6lbs higher than said win but she is still improving and should have no trouble winning this race. 2pt win @ 11/10 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:10 Southwell Vogarth has a fairly good course and distance record of 2192. Was slowly away in the race where the horse finished 9th as well so can write off that run. Was 2nd to West End Lad last time over course and distance but is now slightly better off in the weights today but does an inexperience jockey on board. Both wins have came at the course (one over course and distance and one over 7 furlongs) so has place claims at the least. 0.5pts E/W Vogarth @ 20/1 (PaddyPower - BOG) 15:10 Southwell Like a few I like the chances of Crimson Mitre here. Was well beaten LTO over course and distance when finishing 5th after a 3 month lay off. Should strip fitter for this race and is now back down to a mark of 65 in which he won over course and distance back in July. Providing he is fit then he should go close. Also has a fairly useful draw in stall 5. 0.5pt win Crimson Mitre @ 8/1 (Paddy Power - BOG) 15:40 Southwell The Love Guru has had 2 solid runs in handicap company over course and distance winning once and finishing 2nd LTO off a 10lb higher mark and up in company. Drops back down to a class 6 race here today and has Matthew Davies on board who takes off 5lbs. There are a couple of unexposed horses in the race but I will take experience over that, especially at this course where course form is valuable. 1.5pt win The Love Guru @ 5/2 (Bet >365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Monday 4th January: National Monument (Unpl) (-1.00) Blue Lyric (2nd) (-2.00) Tuesday 5th January: Vogarth (Unpl) (-1.00) Crimson Mitre (Unpl) (-0.50) Love Guru (1st @ 6/4) + 3.75 (I got 5/2) Total for 2 days: -0.75 Bets - 52 Wins - 9 Places* - 0 Losses - 43 P/(L) 16.07

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 13:10 Southwell Xpres maite ran 4 brilliant races over course and distance in the first few months of last year. The form reads 1212 and came off marks ranging from 80-87. Three of those races were in class 3 handicaps and one in a class 4 handicap. Has only tackled the distance once since then when he finished 5th at Wolverhampton off a mark of 86. The drop back down to 6 furlongs and the fact he is 6lbs lower than his last all weather winning mark should give him a great chance today. Placed off a mark as high as 87 and runs off a mark of just 79 here. 1pt win Xpres Maite @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 12:30 Lingfield Was between a couple here in what is a wide open race but my selection lies with Bluebok.The horse is a course and distance win, this was his latest win which came back in July off a mark of 60. He seems to love this course as he has bits of good place form here as well and has placed off a mark as high as 75 here. Runs off 57 today so he is 3lb lower than his course and distance win. Was 4th here LTO off a mark of 58 with Luke Morris on board, J Dean takes another 3lbs off today so he is 4lbs lower than that run where he finished one and a half lengths behind the winner. Was behind Thoughtsofstardom that day but since then the horse has went on to win twice and I fancy Bluebok to reverse the placings due to the 9lb pull in the weights. 1pt win Bluebok @ 15/2 (Bet >365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:30 Lingfield I fancy Mildoura to land a hat trick here today. She is 2/4 on the all weather, both wins coming on her last 2 starts off marks of 79 and 84. The win off a mark of 84 was at this course and distance. She is still lightly raced with only 12 races to date so she is still progressing and a win off a mark just 4lbs higher is definately possible here. She will most likely track the leaders before making a challenge around 2-4 furlongs out although it is hard to see who is going to lead this race. 1pt win Mildoura @ 6/1 (VC - BOG) 15:30 Lingfield Atacama Sunrise is still lightly raced with only 11 runs to date. 2 of those have been on the All Weather where she finished 2nd over 9 furlongs at Wolverhampton and won over this course and distance LTO in a seller. Only raised 2lb for that win so she has a great chance to follow that win up in a fairly uncompetitive race. Trainer's form over the last 14 days have been impressive with 1 win and 5 places from 10 runs including a 20/1 and 40/1 placing. 0.5pt E/W Atacama Sunrise @ 8/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:10 Lingfield Like others I am going to side with Atalntic Story in this Class 2 handicap race. Many have claims but my selection has a very impressive course and distance record which reads 1110. His latest outing over course and distance can be ignored as he was hampered at the start of the race and that most likely knocked his concentration a bit. He had Ebraam 1 length behind him that day when he was 10lbs higher, only 6lbs higher today so I can't see that form being reversed especially since my selection was hampered as previously stated. Atlantic Story has also won twice at the course over 1 furlong further. He is now only 2lbs higher than his last and highest winning mark which came over course and distance in a Class 2 handicap. The horse seems pretty versatile tactics wise so Spencer's hold up tactics won't prove a problem if he choses to do this. Placed several times in the summer on turf over distances ranging from 5-7 furlongs and providing he his fit from his 105 day absence from the track, I believe he can go on and win this at a nice price. Definately has place claims at the very least even if not 100% fit due to his course and distance form. 1pt E/W Atlantic Story @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:50 Southwell I like Snow Bay here who has won at the course over a mile. Has also won over today's trip of 7 furlongs on turf. Was 8/9 LTO over course and distance in a Class 2 handicap, its fair to say he was well outclassed that day and will be more suited to the drop back down to class 4 here today. Still lightly raced with only 12 runs to date and only 5 in total on the AW. Should not be far off the pace which will definately suit at this track and should give a good account from only a 3lb higher mark than his course win here back in December. Trainer and Jockey are bang in from, Makin won on 3 of Smart's horses at this track on Friday and has a total of 6 wins and 6 places from 24 rides in the last fortnight. 1pt win Snow Bay @ 13/2 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:20 Southwell Outer Hebrides has some nice course and distance form which reads 123. All three of those runs came in 2009 off marks of 48, 51 and 54. Did have Amy Baker claiming 5 in the races where he finished 1st and 2nd but had Kingscote on board for the 3rd. Runs off a mark of 53 here today so is defintely handicapped to go close and with that vital good course form under his belt I feel he can win this race. Trainer and Jockey are both in relatively good form in the last fortnight. 1pt win Outer Hebrides @ 7/2 (Willhill - BOG)

[Stevet1859]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Spot on with your weighing up of the Snow Bay race Stu :clap