Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:10 Lingfield Should be quite a tight contest this as 8 line up for this handicap. Raimond Ridge started the year well with a win at this course over 5 furlongs off a mark of 61 (7lb claimer on board). He then ran up in class LTO and did disappoint but back down in class today over a course and distance hes won twice over before could see him back in the winners enclosure. His win here last year was in a Class 5 handicap race for 3 year olds where he went on to win by just under a length off a mark of 72 (5lb claimer on board) whereas today he is running off a mark of just 65 with Matthew Cosham taking off a vital 7lbs once again. My selection has a fantastic course and distance recod overall which reads 12214 and I expect him to run a solid race here once again. The Geester has been running consistently over course and distance and his overall form over C+D is 313 which all came in January so he should be close once again. 1pt win Raimond Ridge @ 17/2 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:50 Southwell Going to take a chance with Mocha Java here who returns to handicap company off a mark just 4lbs higher than his last run in this sort of company which he won over course and distance. His previous run to that was also over course and distance and resulted in a 2nd place. His overall course form reads 11762214 so he has a fairly good record at the track. If you cut that down to course and distance form it reads 17621 which is a 40% strike rate. He won off a mark of 63 back in 2006 on turf but went a bit wayward after that and didn't win again until 2009 but he progressed quite well last year having won off marks of 48, 57 and 58. Runs off 63 today with Declan Cannon taking off a useful 5lbs. This is the trainers only entry today which is a positive for me. 0.5pts E/W Mocha Java @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections A nice 14/1 placer today :ok 14:30 Southwell Several line up here with strong claims but I will be going for one of the outsiders in Bookiebasher Babe. She is a four-time course and distance winner and is back down to her last winning mark of 67 today after dropping another 2lbs from her run LTO. This is her first race over course and distance since she won over it off todays mark having run over several different distances on turf and on the AW since. She did run at the course LTO but over 7 furlongs. The return to a course and distance she clearly acts on may just be what she needs to get back to winning ways. Tomintoul Star went close over course and distance LTO when she made her first start on the AW on her debut for Ruth Carr. Should go close again off a mark 2lbs higher if in the same mood. Bookiebasher Babe was trading at around 30 5-10 minutes ago and now at 26, don't have any money in betfair so a bit gutted to be taking a smaller price but it is one I am generally happy with. 0.5pts E/W Bookiebasher Babe @ 14/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections

A nice 14/1 placer today :ok 14:30 Southwell Several line up here with strong claims but I will be going for one of the outsiders in Bookiebasher Babe. She is a four-time course and distance winner and is back down to her last winning mark of 67 today after dropping another 2lbs from her run LTO. This is her first race over course and distance since she won over it off todays mark having run over several different distances on turf and on the AW since. She did run at the course LTO but over 7 furlongs. The return to a course and distance she clearly acts on may just be what she needs to get back to winning ways. Tomintoul Star went close over course and distance LTO when she made her first start on the AW on her debut for Ruth Carr. Should go close again off a mark 2lbs higher if in the same mood. Bookiebasher Babe was trading at around 30 5-10 minutes ago and now at 26, don't have any money in betfair so a bit gutted to be taking a smaller price but it is one I am generally happy with. 0.5pts E/W Bookiebasher Babe @ 14/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

Topping that up with a 0.25pt win @ 22/1 (Skybet).

[NewPunter]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Backed Bookiebasher Babe e/w on betfair, lets hope she can regain her form

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections She didn't, was very poor actually, worst run from one of my selections in a while. Quite a while without a winner again but haven't really had too many bets this week compared to the norm. Might have a play in one of the later races or Wolverhampton.

[NewPunter]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Never expected her to perform after seeing the drift on Betfair though, went to 60/1 pre race

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:50 Kempton I am siding with Rightcar here who can follow up his course and distance success with another win here today. That was his first run over course and distance and he beat Turf Time by a lengthwho re-opposes here today off 4lb better terms. I feel Rightcar can hold that placings as long as he breaks well, has a nice draw in stall 8. Should keep on the final furlong and have every chance of winning. He is 5lbs higher than his win LTO but I feel that may not be enough to stop him. 1pt win Rightcar @ 6/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Will update figures tonight :ok 14:10 Wolverhamton Brierty was 3rd here over 5 furlongs LTO and I feel he can win this race over a slightly extended 5 furlongs here today. He was running on well that day and was within a length of the winner Perlachy. Handsome Cross finished 2nd that day and he has since went on to finish 2nd and 1st in his two races since to boost the form a bit. Brierty has done his winning over 5-6 furlongs and has won two handicaps off marks of 79 and 70. Runs off 74 today so he has every chance of winning off this mark, especially since his run LTO suggests he may be coming back to form. 1pt win Brierty @ 7/2 (Bet365 - BOG) 15:10 Wolverhampton Aflaam has done all his winning over the mile trip but I feel hes in with a chance over 9 furlongs here today. He has had the one race over course and distance which came in a similar race in this grade where he was 3rd off a mark of 65. Was behind the top two in the market that day who were both fairly short prices so its fair to say he put in a good effort. Has won at Lingfield twice since so he runs off a mark of 71 today. Ran on well in both those wins to suggest that he will handle a further trip and this is his chance to prove it here today. 1pt win Aflaam @ 13/2 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Poor run lately, hope to end it here: 17:10 Wolverhampton Kames Park has been running very consistently over several different distances on the AW as of late and some of those have been in much better races. Dropping down into a class 5 race today and Billy Cray takes off 5lbs so he should be in with a fantastic chance here at a trip that his last 5 wins have came over. 1pt win Kames Park @ 5/1 (VC Bet)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Very poor week :wall Saturday 20th February: Mr Willis (-1.00) Monday 22nd Feburary: Mutajaaser (-1.00) Tuesday 23rd February: Pegasus Again (-1.00) Wednesday 24th Feburary: Raimond Ridge (-1.00) Thursday 25th Feburary: Mocha Java + 0.90 Friday 26th February: Bookiebasher Babe (-1.00) Sunday 28th February: Rightcar (-1.00) Monday 1st March: Brierty (-1.00) Aflaam (-1.00) Kames Park (-1.00) Totals: (-8.10) Bets - 144 Wins - 21 Places* - 8 Losses - 115 P/(L) 30.23 So 8pts profit wiped but it is still a healthy profit and I will hopefully maintain that heading into the turf season where the amount of bets in the AW will no doubt cut down for me.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Hope for a change of fortune today :hope 16:10 Lingfield Always De One has done all his running over 7 and 9 furlongs to date, he is still lightly raced though with only 6 runs to his name. Has made some improvement over 9 furlongs at Wolverhampton in his last two runs and I feel more improvement can be expected here today, especially with the step up in trip to 10 furlongs. Has kept on well in the final furlong in both his last races where he was only beaten a head and three quarters of a length (was hampered that day but still ran on well afterwards) respectively. Runs off the same mark of 55 today and steps down into a Class 6 race so he should run a solid race. 1pt win Always De One @ 6/1 (WillHill - BOG) 16:40 Lingfield Our Day Will Come ran a solid race over course and distance in this grade LTO. He finished 3rd of 12 and was only beaten by three quarters of a length, also lost 2nd place in the final strides by a neck. Runs off the same mark again today and Declan Cannon takes off a vital 5lbs once again. Surprised at how high a price the horse is and should have place claims at the very least if he produces a similar effort. I would rate Top Flight Splash as the main danger. 0.5pts E/W Our Day Will Come @ 11/1 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections One to start off the day before I go through the cards properly: 14:30 Wolverhampton Competitive little heat this with several horses in form or dropping back down to a nice mark but I will be taking my chance on Withnail who makes his first run in the UK and his first run for Stef Liddiard who recently purchased the horse. Has only won 1 of 10 races to date which came over 6 furlongs at Dundalk. Only 2lbs higher for todays run here so should be in with every chance. This is the trainers only horse at the meeting and Adam Kirbys only ride at the track before they both head off to Kempton for the evening meeting. 1pt win Withnail @ 6/1 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Can a speculative bet get me back on track? 20:15 Kempton Going for a very speculative punt here with Mixing who has been running very poorly to date. The fact I am going for this selection is the fact he is now 9lbs lower than his last win which came over course and distance back in June 2009. He runs off a mark of 45 today (with a 5lb claimer on board) having won over course and distance off a mark of 61 at one point in his career. He has a total of three course and distance wins and 1 other course win over 11 furlongs. He has only run over course and distance twice since that win off a mark of 54 and that was off marks of 54 and 52 (7lbs claimer on board). Is now 7lbs lower than the last effort and hopefully the 8 year old can rejuvinate his career by running a solid race tonight. Will be tough for him since he will be running from out of the weights but at that price there has to be some sort of negatives. 0.25pts E/W Mixing @ 50/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections This seems the perfect day to take a break since things haven't been going great the past week or so, may even slow it down over the weekend as well and come back fresh on Monday :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:35 Lingfield Edith's Boy is twice a winner over this distance on the all weather. His first win came at Kempton in a maiden race when he won by a head off a mark of 62 with Neil Callan on board. Since then he has won only once which came over today's course and distance off a mark of 64 in a class 5 handicap. Since then he has had two runs over course and distance off marks of 69 where he has disappointed but in his defence he has a better draw today, Neil Callan is back on board and he has dropped 1lb down in the handicap. Hopefully all 3 of those factors could see him back in the winners enclosure. He is fairly exposed now but still only 4 years old so improvement can still be expected. Strange fact here is that both his wins have came on two of my closest friends birthdays, I know thats irrelevant but just found it strange. Unfortunately its not one of my friends birthdays today. 0.5pts E/W Edith's Boy @ 20/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Very bad run of form from me, still at around the 25pt profit mark but that has dwindled down a fair bit in the last 10 days or so.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:40 Lingfield Miss Lesley won a similar contest over course and distance back in December 2009. Since then she has form of 5523 from higher marks. She is 2lbs lower today than her win in said claimer and she should be in with a very strong chance of winning this race. Neil Callan takes the ride for the first time in what is his only ride of the day. Trainers only horse at the meeting as well so he must rate her chances. 1pt win Miss Lesley @ 3/1 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 16:00 Lingfield Pha Mai Blue has a great chance to win his first race since August which did come over today's course and distance off a mark of 65. Runs off a mark of 60 today and there were signs of him coming back to form when he was a close 3rd over course and distance in a better contest off this mark LTO. That was his first run over course and distance since he won over it. All three of his wins have came at the track with one coming over 8 furlongs off a mark of 62 and the other coming over 6 furlongs off a mark of 78. 1pt win Pha Mai Blue @ 4/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Need to pupdate this again soon: 15:55 Southwell Jack Rantham from the Brian Smart yard has a fantastic chance to win this race in my opinion. The horse won his first race since May 2007 when he won at the end of January over today's trip at Kempton. He beat some nice types in that race so the step up in class today is not a worry for me. Has been off the track since but has to be respected here having only been raised 3lbs for the victory and is only 2lbs higher than a narrow 2nd over course and distance back in January 2009. He has only had the 5 runs on the AW which has resulted in form of 92531. This is Smart's only horse at the meeting which is always a positive sign for me and more interestingly is the jockey booking of Paul Hanagan who comes to Southwell today just for this ride. 1pt win Jack Rantham @ 11/2 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:25 Wolverhampton

27 March 2010 - 15:30 Doncaster - Lincoln Hanidcap 1pt E/W Flipando @ 40/1 (Bet365) This horse doesn't meet many trends but should meet a couple of them. The horse is entered in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton on Saturday and I feel he has a great chance of winning. Flipando has 9 career wins to date, 4 have come over a mile, 2 over further and 3 over 6 furlongs. He won very confortably at Wolverhampton over 6 furlongs LTO off a mark of 87 and has been hit with a 10lb rise due to that. He has also won over 9 furlongs at the track. He is now rated 97, 1lb higher than his best win but also 1lb lower than his place in last years Lincoln. He did win last years trial off a mark of 93, so depending on how he fares on Saturday, he may run off a penalty in the contest on March 27th. What I find interesting is last year was the only time the horse had run in March and he notched up form of 213 (the 1 and 3 was the Lincoln trial and the Lincoln). Jamie Spencer is on board on Saturday and the horse does like to be produced late so he could be the man for the job, he also won on him in this race last year. Obviously the jockey for the Lincoln is an unknown just now.

Since I did bet on this instead of tomorrow's race its obvious who I will be backing tomorrow. I am backing against a good Johnston horse which is very unlike me and I will be a bit sick if I miss the horse winning but thats a chance I have to take. I guess if Flipando doesn't win this then it will probably benefit my bet in the Lincoln as he won't have a penalty to run off of but hopefully he won't be hit too heavy if he does win this. He won the race last year off a 4lb lower mark but the way he won so easily LTO makes me believe that he can easily overcome the rise in the weights. Has won off a mark 1lb lower and placed off a mark 1lb higher. 1pt win Flipando @ 11/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Profit now stands at 21.73, not going to be much AW bets for a while due to Cheltenham, will possibly have a bet at the weekend if there are any meetings. Will try get a full update in by then as well.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 14:30 Southwell Can't not back Thoughtsofstardom at the price he is just now, well overpriced! Last 4 runs have not been his greatest efforts and he does tend to be fairly inconsistent but he is now just 1lb higher than his last win in this grade at Kempton, 7lb claimer on board today which will be useful to ease the weight. Doesn't have a bad draw and has course and distance winning form which is always useful at Southwell. Also likes to front run which again is useful at this track. 1pt each way Thoughtsofstardom @ 33/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Should really have left the AW alone today, this profit is slowly eating away which is not good, Southwell is usually a track I am good at so may look through the handicaps later in the meeting but will probably avoid it. Under 20 now it looks like, will try update it over the weekend.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Lets hopefully get my All Weather form back in track, there is a few I fancy tomorrow: 14:25 Lingfield Elna Bright should have a chance of landing this race off a mark just 1lb higher than his last win which came in a Class 2 Conditions Stakes race at Kempton over 6 furlongs. Has won twice over course and distance in this grade off marks of 86 and 90 so he is only 5lbs higher than win here in January. Does like to be held up so may not get a true run race here as its hard to see who is going to take up the running and I would expect a fairly slow tempo but he did win tracking the leaders at Kempton in his latest win so it will be interesting to see what tactics are adopted here today. Has a good draw in stall 3 as well. 1pt win Elna Bright @ 6/1 (Bet365 - BOG) 15:35 Lingfield Tranquil Tiger has won his last two races which have both came over course and distance in Listed company off marks of 112 which he runs off of here again today. Juts got up to beat Suits Me by a short head LTO but he races off 2lb better terms today and the fact Suits Me has racked up 3 seconds places in a row suggests to me that he just lacks in a finish. He was also well beat by him in the previous race over course and distance. This has been my selections only two runs on the AW and I think he has a great chance of keeping his 100% record in group company here today. 1pt win Tranquil Tiger @ 3/1 (Paddy Power - BOG) 16:10 Lingfield Becausewecan will most likely get an easy lead in this race and Joe Fanning may just shake off the field and lead all the way. Won over the distance at Newmarket LTO in a class 2 handicap and has been raised 5lbs for that effort. Is dropped down in class though and at 4 years of age, a bit more progression can be expected despite him having already had 17 runs to date. Has only had the four runs over the trip and the form reads 1621, his 6 came on Good To Firm ground which may not have favoured him. Has a good record on the AW, winning 1 and placing twice, once over the distance at Kempton which came on his penultimate off a mark of 79. 1pt Becausewecan @ SP Will post up any price for the last horse if I decide to take on in the morning.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Tranquil Tiger breaks the bad run @ 11/8 so what a price I got for him! 1pt profit for the day which is better than nothing. Becausewecan was 2nd @ 6/4, not got round to watching the races yet but seemed as if Elna Bright was going well but something was maybe amiss? I'm sure I read that somewhere anyway. One for today: 16:20 Wolverhampton I feel Forward Feline could be worth a bet here at her current price. Has had three runs over course and distance with form of 513. Her win here was in a dead heat in a Class 5 handicap, that was off a mark of 62 and she runs off a mark just 3lbs higher here and runs down in a class 6 race for only the second time in her 23 races to date. Has only run over the trip on one other occasion on the AW and that came at Lingfield when she was 2nd off a mark of 64. Last 2 runs can be ignored as I feel they were over inadequate trips of 8 and 9 furlongs. Has a decent draw in stall 6 as well. 0.5pts E/W Forward Feline @ 11/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Quick update: Our Day Will Come (-1.00) Always De One (-1.00) Withnail (-1.00) Mixing (-0.50) Edith's Boy (-1.00) Miss Lesley (-1.00) Pha Mai Blue (-1.00) Jack Rantham (-1.00) Flipando (-1.00) Thoughtsofstardom (-2.00) Elna Bright (-1.00) Tranquil Tiger (1st @ 11/8) + 3.00 Becausewecan (-1.00) Forward Feline (-1.00) Total: (10.50) Bets - 158 Wins - 22 Places* - 8 Losses - 128 P/(L) 19.73 Still a fair bit in profit but what an awful run, fancy one at Kempton tonight which I will no doubt have a play on and hope to increase this profit back up.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 21:20 Kempton Clever Omneya has been in her best form to date since the turn of the year with form of 3143. The step up in trip to 7 furlongs certainly seemed to help and all her last 4 runs have been over course and distance. She won in this grade off a mark of 45 so is 5lbs higher for her run tonight. Has run off 51 and 50 since but has been well held on both occasions. Still only had 8 runs to date so more improvement can be expected. Richard Hughes takes the ride again and will be more familiar with the horse for thise ride having been on board for the first time LTO. 1pt win Clever Omneya @ 6/1 (Bet 365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections Becausewecan runs again today so will be a bit sick if I miss it, going to rule it out since it was beaten in an easier race last weekend and has been raised 5lbs for that. 17:10 Kempton Another Mark Johnston runner on the card who is looking for his 5th straight success. This will be her toughest task to date but she has won fairly confortably in all her last 4 races so the 10lb rise may not be enough to stop her going in again. 3 of the 4 wins came over the distance, including one over this course and distance with her other 3 wins coming at Southwell. 2pts win Love Delta @ 7/4 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's All Weather 09/10 Selections 15:40 Lingfield Secretive won well on his racecourse debut over today's trip at Southwell. Won by 3 lengths after keeping on well in the final furlong. Didn't beat much that day but the 3rd placed horse has won since which boosts the form more than of the favourite's maiden win but you can only beat whats put against you I suppose. Mark Johnston has a 34% strike rate with his 3 year olds in 2010 which is a fantastic statistic. Noseda also has a fantastic strike rate with his 3 year olds so it should be quite an interesting encounter but at the current prices I feel the value is with Secretive. 1pt win Secretive @ 10/3 (VC Bet - BOG)