Tennis W/C 9th November

[nkdz]

Isner @ 1.70 Solid price on american guy. Although Falla played lot more matches on this surface lately i give the advantage here to Isner who likes this surface more. He is very powerful server, one of the fastest serves on tour while Falla is quite the opposite, his serve, especially 2nd is very soft and easy to return even for such players like Isner. Isner defeated Gonzo in Basel but was eliminated by better and better Gasquet. Mathieu @ 2.34 This is IMO a clear 50-50 match. PHM maybe a bit underrated because of bad run in past few weeks but it's mainly caused by very tough schedule he had. Troicki is still a very inconsistent player and with bit of luck PHM will take this one today. He's 1-0 h2h, only win was on clay earlier this year in Hamburg when Troicki retired.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November

Sport	Tennis
Event	Marat Safin v Thierry Ascione
Selection	Marat Safin -1.5 sets
Strength	10/10
Date	09/11/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 2.30 (Back)
Reasoning	I don't think today is the end. Safin has played OK the past couple of weeks and I hope we get at least one more good performance. He has been excellent in Paris in the past winning the event 3 times. Ascione really is nowhere near his game, and in the past would have been destroyed. I hope today Safin does himself justice. Ascione come through qualifying but has struggled to do anything in main draws.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November

Sport	Tennis
Event	Marco Chiudinelli v Nicolas Almagro
Selection	Marco Chiudinelli
Strength	10/10
Date	10/11/2009
Bookmaker/Price	VCBet @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Tiredness only worry here. Chiudinelli had excellent week last week making semi finals in home tournament. He's playing great and should be pumped as doesn't get many chances in 1000 tournament. Almagro superior player but very poor indoors and Chiudinelli should be able to rush him and looks good match up.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Julien Benneteau v Phillip Petzschner
Selection	Lay Phillip Petzschner (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	10/11/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 3.10 (Lay)
Reasoning	Don't see much chance for Petzschner. He's really struggling recently and having injury problems. Don't see him improving with this being last tournament of year. Benneteau at home I will take, he had poor loss to Nieminen last match but in Paris I want to back the French guys.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Jeremy Chardy v Juan Monaco
Selection	Jeremy Chardy
Strength	10/10
Date	10/11/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Boylesports @ 1.66 (Back)
Reasoning	Solid for Chardy here. Monaco indoors is no great shakes and Chardy in front of home crowd is looking good. Both showing average form but I like Chardy chances with bigger serve and game more suited to indoors.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Feliciano Lopez v Arnaud Clement
Selection	Arnaud Clement
Strength	10/10
Date	10/11/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.52 (Back)
Reasoning	Like the look of Clement here. Lopez has been poor against big run in China and even though he should be great this part of season results haven't come. Clement form looks to be on the up again and playing at home is the type to get inspired. Also thinking about the match up it should be good for Clement.

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Bennetau - Petzschner 1 @ 1.47 Bit shorter odds than usually, but imho we cant lose with frenchman today. Petzschner is struggling lately, he also had calf injury two weeks ago while Bennetau didn't impressed in Basel(lost to Nieminen) but had tough draw in previous tournaments(Čilić, Ljubo, Simon...) He'll try to win some points on his soil and finish the season in style. Generally, he is much better player than the German, and likes this surface more. Lopez - Clement 2 @ 2.53 Odds already started to drop, and with reason cause theres IMO a massive value on the frenchman. He's in solid shape, played great in Lyon and two rounds here in Paris. Stakh retired so Clement still kept some freshness. On the other hand Lopez wasn't impressive so far, he won matches he had to win, and lost against higher ranked players. If Clement will be inspired here like in Lyon, this will be a very close match.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November

Sport	Tennis
Event	Gilles Simon v Ivan Ljubicic
Selection	Ivan Ljubicic
Strength	10/10
Date	10/11/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.44 (Back)
Reasoning	This looks a nice price. Ljubicic was excellent a couple of weeks ago in France. Last night he struggled a bit against Grosjean and will have to play better than that. Interesting thing for me is that head 2 head is 3-0 to Ljubicic, including 2 wins earlier in the year when Ljubicics conditon wasn't so good. Simon I don't think is playing too well, over rated from performances indoors last year. Also his record in Paris is not great.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November

port	Tennis
Event	Tommy Haas v Arnaud Clement
Selection	Arnaud Clement
Strength	10/10
Date	11/11/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 2.10 (Back)
Reasoning	Getting Clement as underdog is very appealing. He is in good form and was excellent against Lopez. Haas is recovering from swine flu so not sure what shape he is in. Anyway Haas form before swine flu wasn't as good as earlier in the year, and seems a lot of things in Clements favour.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Tomas Berdych v Tommy Robredo
Selection	Tomas Berdych
Strength	10/10
Date	11/11/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.61 (Back)
Reasoning	I like Berdych at this solid price. Indoors conditions really suit and he should have too much power for Robredo. Paris was berdychs finest hour and despite not being able to repeat the success I still want to back him here. Robredo struggled last week in home tournament and think that's him done for the regular season, time to look forward to Davis Cup.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Ho the hell did Ljubicic lose that match!!

[Yoann_Gourcuff]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Do you believe in magic - by Gilles Simon :D

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November

Ho the hell did Ljubicic lose that match!!

You probably dont know him well. Biggest mug on tour w/o doubt. Simon was literary limping whole 3rd set, beat him with one leg. Usually im not surprised by Ljubo's level of stupidity but this today was something special. :rollin

[PerryPFC]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November You and Cramer don't see eye-to-eye on Ljubicic then?!?!?!:loon

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November

You and Cramer don't see eye-to-eye on Ljubicic then?!?!?!:loon

Hehe, if you imply that we should kick his ass then no, being Ivan Ljubičić is bigger punishment. :lol

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Del Potro to win Paris 2009 @ 11 I was thinking about this bet a lot even before the tournament started and decided to pull the trigger. I see only three possible winners here in Paris, Fedex, Murray and... Del Potro. I dont think that Djokovic will recover so soon after winning Basel last week. Fedex is absolutely beatable atm and JMDP won their last match in USO, Nadal is not in his best form and besides that this is not his surface. In this triangle, i give same chances to all three players, more or less, so why not go at these tasty odds. Spaniard had enough time to rest and prepare for Masters, this surface suits him as well, and i consider him as a top 3 player, future number 1. :D

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Clement @ 2.03 Odds are dropping fast so i had to take this one early. Clement is in great form, feeling very confident and likes the surface here in Paris. Also crowd loves him and his motivation is high. On the other hand, German just recovered from swine flu and it had to leave some mark on him. He's not that fresh and even if he is, Clement is still in better shape lately. Both players with similar styles, i definetly can't agree with Haas being the favourite. Berdych @ 1.60 Czech in slightly better shape, likes the surface more... Two similar players, both great from the baseline but Berdych has better serve and better volley, and that's what's important on this surface. I expect a win in two straight sets but will go with this, "regular" win. Odds are on the first sight too short, but this bet will pass. Stepanek @ 1.46 Not the best odds but i will follow my instinct here. Radek clearly better player, in very solid shape. Personally i like betting on him when he's a favourite cause he's very reliable. Troicki had his moment in Bangkok when he beat JWT but he's not a player who should be considered as a big threat to Stepanek who had great time in Basel, where he lost to Nole in semis in three long sets. Like i said, short odds on Czech guy, most tennis experts wont take odds lower than 1.50 but i'm not an expert. :) This time i'll just follow my gut feeling. Good luck.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Viktor Troicki v Radek Stepanek Well, Radek Stepanek has lost the chance to play the final in Basel and that surely should affect him in a way. Another aspect is that he won't have the same motivation here as he has already no chances for the last eight in London. Stepanek has played a quite long tournament in Basel and there wasn't too much time for him to get accustomed with the new conditions. This will be the first game for Stepanek here at Paris while Troicki already has played a good game against Mathieu. From the talent point of view Troicki surely should not be underrated against Stepanek, the difference between these two players is the tactical play as Stepanek possess a more ample variety of tactical change. The freshness and more motivation for this tournament are on Troicki's side who possess al the right skills to win against a player like Stepanek. Good Luck! Pick: Troicki at 3.00 with Betfair 10 units

[ledbyhim]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Hello, is there anyone who can to tell me how Del Potro is doing? Is he in shape?

[madnesstiger]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November

Hello' date=' is there anyone who can to tell me how Del Potro is doing? Is he in shape?[/quote'] Safin doesn't appear confident of beating Del Potro today... Although I'm not too sure on JMDP's shape, I wouldn't like to back Safin after reading his comments above! But, with JMDP at ~1.25, I'm uncertain as to whether to bet or not. :ok

[ledbyhim]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November But Safin still seems to be very unregular player. And even Del Potro isn't in a great shape there is a great doubt for me that Safin win this easily.

[ledbyhim]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Cramer, don't you think you exaggerate a little bit the strenght of your bets? 10/10 ? In my opinion you should be more realistic. But of course good luck from me :ok

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Lay Isner @ 2.98 If Gonzo manages to lose to Isner twice in two weeks then something is very wrong with him. Chilean is my favourite player on tour, he still has chances for final 8, his fighting with Soderling for that spot and Soderling just eliminated Karlo. I didnt watched yesterday match, Isner v Falla, but those who were are saying that it was a match between poor and poorer. Isner's serve was under threat many times, he turned a match against claycourter Falla into 50-50 and i don't see how could he raise his game over night. Although Gonzo isn't in the best shape, i believe he'll win this one in two sets and break Isner couple times. He should secure his final 8 spot long time ago, but post USO period was very bad for him.

[ledbyhim]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Yeaaah, I also think Gonzo deserves more for Masters Cup tournament than Verdasco. Vamos Gonzo! :clap

[madnesstiger]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Paris TMS Indoor Hard, Court 1 11/11/2009 *** Fernando Gonzalez vs John Isner

• John Isner is a giant 6'9" and has a good serve and forehand abilities
• Isner defeated F.Gonzalez only last week over 3 sets (Isner winning a TB 7-3)
• Fernando Gonzalez may not be too interested in this tournament, as he needs to make at least the Final to stand a chance of playing at London. With the odds being so low on him acheiving this, he may not be too interested intoday's match
• On the other hand, John Isner needs to get as many points as poss from this tournament in order to be seeded at the Aussie Open - He acheives the required 32nd in the race if he wins this match.
• As this is scheduled for Court 1, it should favour Isner, as it is said to be faster than Centre Court, with less of a bounce.

With all this in mind, a small/medium back of the American is in order for me... Back John Isner @ 2.94 (Bet.Fair) :hope

[madnesstiger]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Winner of the Gonzalez v Isner match 'should' be prepared to play Juan Martin del Potro in the 3rd round (if he beats Safin), followed by either A.Murray , R.Stepanek, J.Blake or V.Troicki in the 4th. A big ask for Gonzalez if he wants to pick up serious points.

[Spooner]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November I like your reasoning MT :hope

[Musuko]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Completely agree on the Clement pick. I've just pulled the trigger at 3.25 in-play after Clement got broken. Silly Mr. Bet365 trader.

[Musuko]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Just had another piece at 2.10. Not sure why Haas was EVER favourite for this match.

[ledbyhim]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Whereas I think Haas is very solid player and consequent and he won't lose easily. I would be afraid to bet on Clement. But of course Clement is a Frenchman and last time he won over Tsonga in a great style so he is in a good shape to get victory over German. Good luck guys ;)

[madnesstiger]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Set 1 goes to Haas. 7:5 Clement's 1st serve stats have been poor in the 1st set, only 51% 1st serve success. Haas's hasn't been much better, at 60%. But, if Haas can improve on his 2nd serve stats, he should win this.

[Maroon Heaven]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Just adding my weight behind Haas... Don't like Clermont. No confidence in him at all. Can play brillant and then play like an amateur. With MT on Isner as well

[Musuko]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November Haas saved 6 out of 7 breakpoints in that set. That will not happen again. If Clement can nearly get the set to a tie break after being broken twice, with returning like he is, as soon as he steps up his returning he'll take the set.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis W/C 9th November

Cramer, don't you think you exaggerate a little bit the strenght of your bets? 10/10 ? In my opinion you should be more realistic. But of course good luck from me :ok

I just do that as I think it's best strategy for sports-punter.com competition:ok BTW Ljubicic is such a chump, can't believe how stupid he played after Simon got injured. Me thinks the T word;)