lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair chelsea - man utd looks like a game with a late winner or a 0-0 :S Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 13. Valencia v Real Zaragoza Lay the draw @ 4.8 for 6,55 Liability: 24,89 The decent form of Valencia at home along with great scoring capabilities combined with the bad form of Zaragoza away makes this a bet for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Backed @ 2.5 for 6' date='00 with intention to back again if scored[/color'] Backed @ 6 for 3,40 Holy crap at the ref drogba gets a flying roundhouse kick to his chest and gets booked for overreacting ???? what the hell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 13. Valencia v Real Zaragoza Lay the draw @ 4.8 for 6,55 Liability: 24,89 The decent form of Valencia at home along with great scoring capabilities combined with the bad form of Zaragoza away makes this a bet for me Backed @ 8 for 3,90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair This looks to be going quite well mate. Well done. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair This looks to be going quite well mate. Well done. :ok haha thanks, so far so good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Looking good, good luck btw, where is the summary after 10 bets you promised us in post 1? :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair by popular demand here is my summary of the first 10 bets ( one idea is to include yield every 100 bets if i make it that far ) Results bet 1 till 10 Soccer / West Ham v Everton : Match Odds 0.85Soccer / Lazio v AC Milan : Match Odds 2.18Soccer / Cottbus v 1860 Munich : Match Odds 0.24Soccer / Atl Madrid v Real Madrid : Match Odds 6.55Soccer / Atalanta v Juventus : Match Odds 6.55Soccer / Wolves v Arsenal : Match Odds 2.56Soccer / Catania v Napoli : Match Odds -3.08Soccer / Tottenham v Sunderland : Match Odds 1.14Soccer / Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg : Match Odds 2.56Soccer / G Furth v Augsburg : Match Odds 0.38 Start Bankroll : € 40,93 Total profit over last 10 bets : € 19,93 Total profit : € 19,93 New Bankroll :€60,86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Inter - Roma looks good for a LTD. Good form for Inter, over in last 5 home games.Over in 3 of last 5 away games for Roma, trailing at Catania and Udinese. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 14. Inter Milan v As Roma Lay the draw @ 4.3 for 7,50 Liability: 24,75 Inter with Eto'o and Milito in line up plus sneijder on the bench so enough firepower to crack the shaky defence of As Roma huge factors in play are good form of inter home and bad away form of As Roma , bad defence of As Roma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 14. Inter Milan v As Roma Lay the draw @ 4.3 for 7,50 Liability: 24,75 Inter with Eto'o and Milito in line up plus sneijder on the bench so enough firepower to crack the shaky defence of As Roma huge factors in play are good form of inter home and bad away form of As Roma , bad defence of As Roma lost the full 24,75... after the goal of as roma ( who were huge underdoggs) i looked at how much i would lose if i backed out completely it was - 2,70 ..... 2 way crossroad decision wise greed - safety .... i went for greed..... :sad:$ Back to around my starting bankroll so to prevent this from happening in the future a new rule is applied from now on: Rule 6 : If in a match with a huge underdog scores back out completely (hoping for 2 goals by the favorites might work sometimes but for the most part it's just wishful thinking) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Your strategy definitely has a good potential. It was foreseeable that Inter will look for the equalizer and the odds for draw will drop. You might wish they will take the lead so you could back the draw at higher odds but too many times it’s not happening. At HT draw was 3.35. Backing [email protected] would result in a small loss of 2.12 regardless of the final result. The main question here is : is it worth to risk the whole stake (in your case 24.75) or to accept a small loss of 2.12? If you lose 24.75 which is almost half of your betting bank it would take 10 – 15 trades to recover plus the frustration pushing you to chase the losses. Is it worth the hassle ? Imo this is the point where you stumbled several times in the previous GH’s. The key is to accept a few small losses and move on. Don’t bother too much if you lose some money on a trade. Nobody has 100% strike rate. You can get the money back in the next 2 or 3 bets. You won’t have to start over again. But your confidence will grow and you’ll be on your way to achieve the target. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair I think you're completely on the wrong track and can only fail. At this rate you'll end up with 254 rules and no matches left to bet on :lol Rule 3 : Don't bet on Bayern leverkussen unless helmes and rolfes are playing Rule 6 : If in a match with a huge underdog scores back out completely (wisinh for 2 goals by the favorites might work sometimes but for the most it's just wishfull thinking) You create rules to apply to the whole strategy on the basis of the experience in one single individual game. Does that make sense to you ? Your method for determining the strategy details are reactionary and negative in design. Reactionary on the basis of some very short periods of personal experience. Here you have lost touch with reality as you are completely disregarding the most likely flow of events based on a large set of statistical data. (does not mean you need to compile the data yourself, plenty of general info readily available on the net) You are doomed from the offset because with each new short period of personal experience you will make an adjustment. Yet you have no reason whatsoever to think the adjustment makes any sense long term. So after each setback you adjust until the next setback, and the next and the next, no future in it at all. Negative in design as the only thing you do is exclude more and more until you end up with a very narrow band of selections and options. But you have no long term evidence at all that this narrow band is any better or worse then the complete broad band. All you do is say "that didn't work, won't do that anymore". But you are missing the point that it didn't work ONCE, it didn't work for THAT match. There is no reason whatsoever that something that doesn't work for one match doesn't work for all matches. By excluding all matches on the basis of one you also exclude those matches where there is profit to be made. Again the road leads nowhere. Time for a vacation me thinks. Then back to the drawing board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair I think you're completely on the wrong track and can only fail. At this rate you'll end up with 254 rules and no matches left to bet on :lol You create rules to apply to the whole strategy on the basis of the experience in one single individual game. Does that make sense to you ? Your method for determining the strategy details are reactionary and negative in design. Reactionary on the basis of some very short periods of personal experience. Here you have lost touch with reality as you are completely disregarding the most likely flow of events based on a large set of statistical data. (does not mean you need to compile the data yourself, plenty of general info readily available on the net) You are doomed from the offset because with each new short period of personal experience you will make an adjustment. Yet you have no reason whatsoever to think the adjustment makes any sense long term. So after each setback you adjust until the next setback, and the next and the next, no future in it at all. Negative in design as the only thing you do is exclude more and more until you end up with a very narrow band of selections and options. But you have no long term evidence at all that this narrow band is any better or worse then the complete broad band. All you do is say "that didn't work, won't do that anymore". But you are missing the point that it didn't work ONCE, it didn't work for THAT match. There is no reason whatsoever that something that doesn't work for one match doesn't work for all matches. By excluding all matches on the basis of one you also exclude those matches where there is profit to be made. Again the road leads nowhere. Time for a vacation me thinks. Then back to the drawing board. The problem is that the rules are formulated reactionary and i'll try to formulate it better. I don't agree there are short term solutions because leverkussen : rolfes and helmes are the the main scorers of bayern leverkussen , rolfes is even the captain i agree the rule itself is short term it should be like Rule 3 : Don't bet on teams missing more than 2 or 3 important players Rule 6 is actually a rule i should have put in from the start , backing partially out after the goal of the underdog is a no brainer by me because 2 goals by the heavy favorite is not going to happen every time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Your strategy definitely has a good potential. It was foreseeable that Inter will look for the equalizer and the odds for draw will drop. You might wish they will take the lead so you could back the draw at higher odds but too many times it’s not happening. At HT draw was 3.35. Backing [email protected] would result in a small loss of 2.12 regardless of the final result. The main question here is : is it worth to risk the whole stake (in your case 24.75) or to accept a small loss of 2.12? If you lose 24.75 which is almost half of your betting bank it would take 10 – 15 trades to recover plus the frustration pushing you to chase the losses. Is it worth the hassle ? Imo this is the point where you stumbled several times in the previous GH’s. The key is to accept a few small losses and move on. Don’t bother too much if you lose some money on a trade. Nobody has 100% strike rate. You can get the money back in the next 2 or 3 bets. You won’t have to start over again. But your confidence will grow and you’ll be on your way to achieve the target. :ok yea i totally agree with you i contemplated of backing it but i could not bring myself to do it but because of this loss i will take the small losses easier than to lose the whole bet :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Rule 6 is actually a rule i should have put in from the start ' date=' backing partially out after the goal of the underdog is a no brainer by me because 2 goals by the heavy favorite is not going to happen every time[/quote'] Such a situation, like it was Inter vs. Roma, can be easily avoided by another rule: don't lay a draw where there is a heavy favourite! Chose the games where odds for home and away team are more balanced. If you believe there will be goals in such a game, then lay under 1.5 or under 2.5 goals, odds will rise nevertheless who scores, favourite or underdog (or back overs, and odds will drop). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 15. Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Minyor Pernik Lay the draw @ 4.6 for 6,90 Liability: 24,84 Minyor have been in good form lately with 2 straight wins over CSKA Sofia (0-4 away win ) and Chernomorets (2-0 home win) and with Plovdiv conceding a lot at home an avg of 2,17 this is a bet for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 15. Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Minyor Pernik Lay the draw @ 4.6 for 6,90 Liability: 24,84 Minyor have been in good form lately with 2 straight wins over CSKA Sofia (0-4 away win ) and Chernomorets (2-0 home win) and with Plovdiv conceding a lot at home an avg of 2,17 this is a bet for me Backed the draw @ 2.84 for 4 with the intention of backing again if scored :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair It's not formulation where the problem is, never mind, i gave it a shot, ah well, good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Backed the draw @ 2.84 for 4 with the intention of backing again if scored :hope Backed the draw @ 3.8 to minimize loss for at most -2,50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 16. AEK v Larissa Lay the draw @ 4.1 for 8,00 Liability: 24,80 Aek strong at home with a good record vs larissa at their home ground makes this a bet for me :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 16. AEK v Larissa Lay the draw @ 4.1 for 8,00 Liability: 24,80 Aek strong at home with a good record vs larissa at their home ground makes this a bet for me :hope Backed the draw @ 7 for 4,60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Daily Punter Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Ever tried trading big scores like 3-2 and 3-3 lockw? the odds are a lot bigger than they should be and can pay off handsomely:D. Had a great win at the weekend with man city burnley. Got 350 on 3-3 and laid @ 20 should have left it tho :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Ever tried trading big scores like 3-2 and 3-3 lockw? the odds are a lot bigger than they should be and can pay off handsomely:D. Had a great win at the weekend with man city burnley. Got 350 on 3-3 and laid @ 20 should have left it tho :rollin no ,sounds good tough maybe i'll try it in the near future :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 17. Aachen v H Rostock Lay the draw @ 3.70 for 9,20 Liability: 24,84 Head 2 head stats are inviting the latest 2 matches at home aachen have scored 3 goals versus Rostock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair As token of my support i've backed 1+ goals 24.48 @ 1.09 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair As token of my support i've backed 1+ goals 24.48 @ 1.09 :ok haha :ok what a beatifull goal by aachen should count as two goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 17. Aachen v H Rostock Lay the draw @ 3.70 for 9,20 Liability: 24,84 Head 2 head stats are inviting the latest 2 matches at home aachen have scored 3 goals versus Rostock Backed the draw @ 5.2 for 6,60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair +2.24 in the bag :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moobet Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair What about Nantes v Guingamp? This game is not in your list? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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