lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Share Posted November 7, 2009 I've tried 2 glory hunts before and the first one was very profitable untill a point my greed got the better of me. I managed to get my bankroll to a decent amount and blew it all on a few "bankers" i thought would be easy. Second one i had a slight profit over about 49 bets due the fact i didn't have a good selection method. Now for my final attempt I'm going to set new rules to prevent me from making the same mistakes. Rule 1 : Don't bet on women football Rule 2 : Bets have to be selected before start of the game Rule 3 : Don't bet teams with a lot of absences in midfield or attack Rule 4 : Max liability of 10% of starting bank if bankroll is over 250 euro below that a max liability of 25 euro's Rule 5 : Back the draw @ 50-55th minute ( for about 3/4 of the stake so i can still green up for a minimal amount if they score after 50-55th minute) Rule 6 : If in a match with a huge underdog scores back out completely (wisinh for 2 goals by the favorites might work sometimes but for the most it's just wishfull thinking) Starting Bankroll : 40,39 every 10 bets i will post a summary of the bets so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 1. G Furth v Augsburg Lay the draw @ 3.6 for 9,60 liability: 24,96 Both teams have good scoring averages home and away and with the top scorers still fit to play for both teams . The head to head results are very promising all the games between the two teams has produced a lot of goals( games dating back from 2009 till 2006) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 1. G Furth v Augsburg Lay the draw @ 3.6 for 9,60 liability: 24,96 Both teams have good scoring averages home and away and with the top scorers still fit to play for both teams . The head to head results are very promising all the games between the two teams has produced a lot of goals( games dating back from 2009 till 2006) Backed the draw @ 3.75 for 9.20 0-1 Augsburg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 2. Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg Lay the draw @ 3.65 for 9,40 Liability: 24,91 The scoring averages of both teams are decent this time hoffenheim have a 2,4 goal avg scored at home but a below 1 conceded and wolfsburg have a 1.2 avg goals scored and against . Both teams have top quality strikers and both teams have strikers that are in goal scoring form Wolfsburg : Martins ( with his pace he can cause trouble to hoffenheim,plus grafite is back in the squad and not to forget dzeko Hoffenheim : Ibisevic ( very lethal striker can score anytime) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 2. Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg Lay the draw @ 3.65 for 9,40 Liability: 24,91 The scoring averages of both teams are decent this time hoffenheim have a 2,4 goal avg scored at home but a below 1 conceded and wolfsburg have a 1.2 avg goals scored and against . Both teams have top quality strikers and both teams have strikers that are in goal scoring form Wolfsburg : Martins ( with his pace he can cause trouble to hoffenheim,plus grafite is back in the squad and not to forget dzeko Hoffenheim : Ibisevic ( very lethal striker can score anytime) Backed the draw @ 5 for 6,70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 3. Tottenham v Sunderland Lay the draw @ 4.7 for 6,70 Liability: 24,79 Tottenham with good scoring avg at home plus defoe is back after a suspension Sunderland misses cana and cattermole , cana good defensive player is missing so more breathing room for tottenham attack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moobet Posted November 7, 2009 Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair I've tried 2 glory hunts before and the first one was very profitable untill a point my greed got the better of me. I managed to get my bankroll to a decent amount and blew it all on a few "bankers" i thought would be easy. Second one i had a slight profit over about 49 bets due the fact i didn't have a good selection method. Now for my final attempt I'm going to set new rules to prevent me from making the same mistakes. Rule 1 : Don't bet on women football Rule 2 : Bets have to be selected before start of the game Rule 3 : Don't bet on Bayern leverkussen unless helmes and rolfes are playing Rule 4 : Max liability of 10% of starting bank if bankroll is over 250 euro below that a max liability of 25 euro's Rule 5 : Back the draw @ 50-55th minute ( for about 3/4 of the stake so i can still green up for a minimal amount if they score after 50-55th minute) Starting Bankroll : 40,39 Good to see you back :) GL in new hunt! :dude:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 3. Tottenham v Sunderland Lay the draw @ 4.7 for 6,70 Liability: 24,79 Tottenham with good scoring avg at home plus defoe is back after a suspension Sunderland misses cana and cattermole , cana good defensive player is missing so more breathing room for tottenham attack Backed @ 5.7 for 5,50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Good to see you back :) GL in new hunt! :dude:clap Thanks moobet , first 3 bets are winners hope i can continue like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 4. Catania v Napoli Lay the draw @ 3.23 for 10 Liability: 23,00 Napoli with Napoli: Cannavaro Gargano, Cigarini,Hamsik, Lavezzi, Quagliarella (napoli site) is a good team and they have recently broken the curse on away games ( they hadn't won in like 20 or more away games) Catania with a low 1.2 goals avg scored and 1.4 avg conceded (mainly because 2 0-0 against bari and atlanta ) but against decent offensive teams they conceded a decent amount of goals : Udinese 4 - 2 Catania Inter Milan 2 - 1 Catania Fiorentina 3 - 1 Catania they also had low scoring games at home vs Lazio and Roma but still conceded a goal. I rate the offense of Napoli at par with Fiorentina and Udinese along with a great player in midfield Hamsik i think Napoli can grab a few goals On the flip side Napoli have conceded an avg of 2.16 goals away from home but due to the fact the odds of both team to win are similar the odds of the draw will rise if catania manages to score first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 5. Wolves - Arsenal Layed the draw @ 5.5 for 4,70 Liability: 20,68 Arsenal avg scores above 2 goals a game and with all their main attackers still fit ( i don't count bendter as main striker :lol :puke) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 4. Catania v Napoli Lay the draw @ 3.23 for 10 Liability: 23,00 Napoli with Napoli: Cannavaro Gargano, Cigarini,Hamsik, Lavezzi, Quagliarella (napoli site) is a good team and they have recently broken the curse on away games ( they hadn't won in like 20 or more away games) Catania with a low 1.2 goals avg scored and 1.4 avg conceded (mainly because 2 0-0 against bari and atlanta ) but against decent offensive teams they conceded a decent amount of goals : Udinese 4 - 2 Catania Inter Milan 2 - 1 Catania Fiorentina 3 - 1 Catania they also had low scoring games at home vs Lazio and Roma but still conceded a goal. I rate the offense of Napoli at par with Fiorentina and Udinese along with a great player in midfield Hamsik i think Napoli can grab a few goals On the flip side Napoli have conceded an avg of 2.16 goals away from home but due to the fact the odds of both team to win are similar the odds of the draw will rise if catania manages to score first. Backed @ 2.53 for 13,00 to minimize losses to 3 euro... looks like an 0-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 5. Wolves - Arsenal Layed the draw @ 5.5 for 4,70 Liability: 20,68 Arsenal avg scores above 2 goals a game and with all their main attackers still fit ( i don't count bendter as main striker :lol :puke) Backed @ 30 for 2 last week eduardo had some troubles with finishing now he lets the wolves defenders help him :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 6. Atalanta - Juventus Lay the draw @ 3.8 for 8,90 Liability: 24,92 Juventus have been averaging avg of 2 goals scored in away games and Atalanta has a avg conceded goals of 1.36 Amauri is suspended (4 goals ) but with good old Trezeguet in front (5 goals ) i think juve can still produce some goals. Trezeguet with Diego , Cameronesi and with giovinco feeding him goals plus some injuries at the side of Atalanta will make this a bet for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 6. Atalanta - Juventus Lay the draw @ 3.8 for 8,90 Liability: 24,92 Juventus have been averaging avg of 2 goals scored in away games and Atalanta has a avg conceded goals of 1.36 Amauri is suspended (4 goals ) but with good old Trezeguet in front (5 goals ) i think juve can still produce some goals. Trezeguet with Diego , Cameronesi and with giovinco feeding him goals plus some injuries at the side of Atalanta will make this a bet for me Backed the draw @ 15 for 2 Cameronesi was the correct answer :P 2 goals @ 37th minute Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 7. Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Lay the draw @ 3.8 for 8,90 Liability: 24,92 Atletico is leaking goals and with higuan in form plus benzema always looking for a goal plus VAN GOL on the bench this is a bet for me. Avg goal scored @ home for Atletico :1.11 Avg conceded goals @ home for Atletico : 2.11 Avg scored goals in away games for real : 1.5 Avg conceded goals in away games for real : 0.5 (aguero and forlan are capable of penetrating the defence of real madrid) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 7. Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Lay the draw @ 3.8 for 8,90 Liability: 24,92 Atletico is leaking goals and with higuan in form plus benzema always looking for a goal plus VAN GOL on the bench this is a bet for me. Avg goal scored @ home for Atletico :1.11 Avg conceded goals @ home for Atletico : 2.11 Avg scored goals in away games for real : 1.5 Avg conceded goals in away games for real : 0.5 (aguero and forlan are capable of penetrating the defence of real madrid) Backed the draw @ 40 for 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 8. Cottbus v 1860 Munich Lay the draw @ 3.7 for 9,25 Liability: 24,98 Avg. goals per match: Cotbuss: 2 , home ( they also have scored more than 70 % of their goals before the 50th minute) 1860 Munich 0.8 , away (their conceding rate makes this a bet) Avg. goals conceded per match Cotbuss: 2 , home 1860 Munich: 2 , away Cotbuss without their top scorer but with Jalu (4 goals) and Radu ( 2 goals ) they still have a capable attack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 8. Cottbus v 1860 Munich Lay the draw @ 3.7 for 9,25 Liability: 24,98 Avg. goals per match: Cotbuss: 2 , home ( they also have scored more than 70 % of their goals before the 50th minute) 1860 Munich 0.8 , away (their conceding rate makes this a bet) Avg. goals conceded per match Cotbuss: 2 , home 1860 Munich: 2 , away Cotbuss without their top scorer but with Jalu (4 goals) and Radu ( 2 goals ) they still have a capable attack Backed the draw @ 2.7 for 6 with the intention of backing the draw again if a goal is made for a minimal win or loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 9. Lazio Roma v Ac Milan Lay the draw @ 3.4 for 10,00 Liability: 24,00 This game i chose because of the good head 2 head stats plus both teams have good attackers ( pato ,boriello and ronaldinho in form, Zarata , rocchi always dangerous in front of goal) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Backed the draw @ 2.7 for 6 with the intention of backing the draw again if a goal is made for a minimal win or loss Backed the draw @ 6 for 3 for a small profit :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 9. Lazio Roma v Ac Milan Lay the draw @ 3.4 for 10,00 Liability: 24,00 This game i chose because of the good head 2 head stats plus both teams have good attackers ( pato ,boriello and ronaldinho in form, Zarata , rocchi always dangerous in front of goal) Backed the draw @ 4.4 for 7,70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Looking forward to the chelsea - man utd game and will be involved because i smell a few goals in that game should be a good match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 10. West Ham United v Everton Lay the draw @ 3.45 for 10 Liability:24,50 Louis saha (6 goals ) back in line up for everton and with west ham recent goal fests at home ( 3 times 2-2 and last one an 2-1) makes this a bet for me only 1 thing to note is the injury of Carlton Cole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 11. Chelsea v Man Utd. Lay the draw @ 3.5 for 10 Liability: 25,00 The recent form of chelsea and the flurry of goals conceded and scored by man utd makes this a bet for me plus the good record at home of chelsea vs man utd. http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2009/11/08/england/premier-league/chelsea-football-club/manchester-united-fc/781269/head2head/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 10. West Ham United v Everton Lay the draw @ 3.45 for 10 Liability:24,50 Louis saha (6 goals ) back in line up for everton and with west ham recent goal fests at home ( 3 times 2-2 and last one an 2-1) makes this a bet for me only 1 thing to note is the injury of Carlton Cole Backed the draw @ 3.8 for 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 12. Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund Lay the draw @ 4.2 for 7,90 Liability: 24,96 Home form of Werder Bremen is amazing plus a lot of injuries on the side of Dortmund plus the head 2 head statistics makes this a bet for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Rule 1 : Don't bet on women football :rollin :ok And good luck in this new GH, it started well, keep going on! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 11. Chelsea v Man Utd. Lay the draw @ 3.5 for 10 Liability: 25,00 The recent form of chelsea and the flurry of goals conceded and scored by man utd makes this a bet for me plus the good record at home of chelsea vs man utd. http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2009/11/08/england/premier-league/chelsea-football-club/manchester-united-fc/781269/head2head/ Backed @ 2.5 for 6,00 with intention to back again if scored Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockw Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Final Attempt : Trading on betfair Bet 12. Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund Lay the draw @ 4.2 for 7,90 Liability: 24,96 Home form of Werder Bremen is amazing plus a lot of injuries on the side of Dortmund plus the head 2 head statistics makes this a bet for me Backed @ 6.2 for 5,20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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