RB's NH thread 2009/2010

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 108 - 26.21pts Double 1220 Kempton - Candy Creek @ 4/7 Been looking forward to this one making his hurdling debut. Looked a decent horse in the making last season, when winning a weakish looking maiden bumper, and then proved himself to be very decent when first, finishing 4th behind Dunguib, I wonfer Now and Luska Lad, but ahead of the well thought of Roberto Goldback, who went on to win graded events last season over hurdles. He then went and won another bumper, beating the useful Liss Na Tintri and Morning Supreme. Makes his first start for Nicky Henderson today, and with AP in the driving seat, I expect him to take to hurdles well and score confortabely. 105 Ludlow - Hell's Bay @ EVES Already drifting slightly this morning, with some support for Latanier. However, if he takes to chasing and produces somewhere near what he is capable of then he is more than entitled to be winning this race. Nicholls Novice chasers have been going well this season and there is no reason to suggest that the selection won't continue that trend today. Found a lot of horses too good last season over hurdles, finishing behind the likes of Diamond Harry, Bouggler, Door Boy and Junior, so he mixed it in decent company. Also a graded winner over hurdles, when having some very decent horses in behind. On that run, he is a class apart from the rest of this field, and I hope Nicholls has him right for his debut here. If he has, he will win. :hope

[w1nsome]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010

Catch up time..... Sports Line, my arkle horse, ran the rest of the field (some potentially decent chasers) silly. One bad mistake 3 out but he regained composure and won very cosily indeed. Will have to improve, to step up to the next rung but more than capable

------------ Have to agree with you was impressive:ok But 1 i would deffo be watching out for from this race was"Psycho (IRE) "-1st run over chases jumped well untill tiring in the straight--finishing position does not justify what a good race he ran

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Will update after today. Bet 109 - Apt Approach 19.64pts WIN @ 7/4 Bet365 BOG Expected to do big things this season over staying distances.Todays' trip is arugably on the sharp side for him, and Nicanor and Essex will both provide stiff opposition off the back of a 2nd and 3rd respectively behind Whatuthink on chase debut. 2m2 may be sharp but this will take all the getting here on what is completely bottomless ground and Apt Approach should act on it no problem. I expect him to have too much in the way of class and should be staying on when others are toiling badly.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Thats 1:35 Thurles above by the way :$ Don't want to edit now, as the 7/4 has gone with Bet365

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 :rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin Thats the way the cookie crumbles in NH racing. Apt Approach had the race in safe keeping, despite a round full of awkward jumping, before messing the last up good and proper, stopped dead just about, and don't know how Walsh stayed on. Lost a load of ground in a fairly short run in but still got up for 2nd. If he jumps round ok, over a distance further than today, then he will take some beating imo. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 579.54pts Closing Bank - 539.89pts Profit/Loss - +40.65pts Up and down season continues..... got a couple bets lined up for tomorrow :ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Have taken 20/1 with Blue SQ (2pts ew) on Snowy Morning for the Hennessy. Will post up in full tomorrow... just posting now, as price will probably go as much shorter everywhere else.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Again, will post up tomorrow, but I have had 1.5ps E.W on According to John in the 3:25 @ Newcastle Bet365 BOG. Put it on just now, before I talk myself back out of it after talking myself into it. Reasoning up tomorrow.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Few more for today..... reasoning to be posted up before first race at some point. All Bet365 BOG 1245 Fairyhouse - Mourad 7.5pts @ 11/10 300 Fairyhouse - The Midnight Club 5.5pts @ 2/1 4pts Double on the above as well. 205 Newbury - Piraya 1.5pts E.W @ 8/1 345 Newbury - Shillingstone 5.5pts @ 15/8

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 110 - 240 Newbury Snowy Morning 2pts E.W @ 20/1 Blue Sq. Potentially well treated on his very best form. Willie Mullins was never happy with him last season, and reports him back to being close to the animal he was, when falling as fav here 2 years ago. Question marks over his jumping still hang large, but if he gets around then he definitely possesses the talent to at least place. Tough ask to win it, but on his day a class act. Bet 111 - 325 Newcastle According To John 1.5pts E.W @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG Well treated here, 8lbs lower than highest ever mark and has placed off a higher mark than this. Has won on today's ground and will definitely stay. Has only had a handful of runs since his brilliant 3rd behind Denman and Snowy Morning in the RSA, but has been steadily improving and can go close here off a nice low weight. Bet 112 - 1245 Mourad 7.5 pts WIN @ 11/10 Bet365 BOG Could turn into a 2 horse race here between the selection and Donna's Palm, but I fancy that Mourad will be set for bigger and higher standard targets this season and will be expected to get off to a winning start. He doesn't get his head in front too often which is a slight worry, but the Triumph hurdle form has taken a major boost with the performance of Zaynar and he wasn't too far behind him on that occasion. Will stay on at the end, but hopefully won't come too late as the feeling is he will be wanting further than this. Had the benefit od a run at Dundalk midweek to sharpen him up and will be ok on the ground. Should be good enough to win here. Bet 112 - 300 Fairyhouse - The Midnight Club 5.5pts WIN @ 2/1 Bet365 BOG He is a class act. Faces at least 2 very tough rivals here, with the already well backed Rocco's Hall and the ex Mullins horse Jessies Dream. All 3 of these could easily feature in big end of season races, but the selection for me just has that extra touch of class and hails from a stable which is currently going very well. Looked a chaser in the making last season and is bred for this discipline. Will stay all day and will absolutely adore the ground. 2/1 looks massive and I cannot pass it up. Bet 113 - 4pts Double on Bets 111 and 112 Bet 114 - 205 Newbury Piraya 1.5pts E.W @ 8/1 No other reason than I backed him every time last season, and he disappointed just about every time. I am willing to give him one last chance here though. If he brings the form he showed in France, then he is more than good enough to win a race of this calibre. Bet 115 - 345 Newbury Shillingstone 5.5pts WIN @ 15/8 Very unexposed and has done little wrong on 4 career starts so far, finishing 2211. 8lbs higher than last win but still looks well treated. Can see off moderate and exposed looking opposition here and the step up in trip shouldn't provide too much of a problem. Jumps nicely and should be good enough to win this contest.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 6.06pts loss on the day as Shillingstone bails me out. (Piraya and According to John also placed) :$ Mourad ran ok, but can't be prominent as was shown last season when Ruby tried it. He gave Donnas Palm a tow all the way round and ultimately was out-sped by a more natural speedster after the last hurdle. Not too concerned about him, as in strongly run race sitting mid-div, he is able to come off the pace. The Midnight Club, I didn't see the race, so can't comment yet. Obviously disappointed he didn't make the top 3, particularly as he has PTP experience, so shouldn't have found chasing a problem and there wasn't much obvious class in the race. Snowy Morning, was coming back to the front 4 before making a horrible error at the second last.... almosat pulled up after that. Wouldn't have won or finished 2nd, but may well have challenged for 4th if not making the error. Piraya stayed on well for 3rd and was worth taking the chance. Haven't seen the According to John race.... 3rd is a decent result though but don't know how he ran. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 540.65pts Closing Bank - 534.59pts Profit/Loss - +34.59pts

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Will post up reasoning tomorrow, but have backed 2 horses e/w in the Drinmore Chase tomorrow at Fairyhouse (1:30) Roberto Goldback 1.5pts E.W @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG Mr Warbucks 1pt E.W @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

[w1nsome]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 china rock 14/1 = great E/W bet Great race to watch anyways

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010

china rock 14/1 = great E/W bet Great race to watch anyways

Yeah, I was discussing the race with Milen.... we both agreed that China Rock was a good e.w bet, him stronger than me. I can't believe that Mr Warbucks is currently double the price of whatuthink. Mr Warbucks beat him well enough on their chase debut, although the 1l suggests not too cosily, but was greater than it looked. Whatuthink then went on and won next time out, but Zaarito was all over him before falling. I also believe that Whatuthink will be much more suited to 3m, whereas Mr Warbucks will be very much suited by 2m4f and will appreciate the ground. Can't understand why he is double the price. Roberto Goldback ran ok on chase debut, as said before should have beaten Osana but fluffed the last jump somewhat. He will appreciate every yard here and will also act on the ground. Will have improved for that outing and is being aimed at some decent races this season. If I have another small bet on the race, then China Rock is the only other horse I would be able to back at the prices.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010

Will post up reasoning tomorrow, but have backed 2 horses e/w in the Drinmore Chase tomorrow at Fairyhouse (1:30) Roberto Goldback 1.5pts E.W @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG Mr Warbucks 1pt E.W @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

Taken from the other day before the abandonement, Odds taken for tomorrow are different slightly.... Roberto Goldback 1.5pts E.W @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG Mr Warbucks 1pt E.W @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 116 & 117 ---- 1:20 Fairyhouse, Roberto Goldback 1.5pts E.W @ 8/1 PP BOG, Mr Warbucks 1pt E.W @ 12/1 PP BOG. Looks to be a very hot contest with some top top hurdlers in the field and potentially some very decent chasers. Roberto Goldback shaped well on debut, but had 2 or 3 very slow jumps, most notably at the last when losing 4 or 5l to Osana, but stayed on strongly for a very narrow defeat. If jumping better here then he can go very close. Will appreciate the ground and will stay 2m4f, where others in the field (Pandorama, Whatuthink) may be better suited to 3m. 8/1 represents a decent value bet to me. Mr Warbucks done nothing wrong on chase debut, with the winning 1l margin over whatuthink somewhat flattering the latter, as Mr Warbucks looked capable of so much more on the day. Whatuthink then improved to see off a decent field, but Zaarito would have surely beaten him had he not fallen 3 out when cruising. The trip should be ideal here, with ground to suit and certainly to me looks somewhat overpriced. Taking him to at least confirm the placings with Whatuthink and if doing so, is entitled to be in the mix.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 118 - 16.5pts WIN Double. 215 Catterick - Alegralii @ 8/15 Bet365 BOG The yard is absolutely flying at the moment with 12 winners from the last 42 runs and this mare looks to be easily good enough to carry on that record by winning here. Her last win is looking very good indeed when beating Miss Overdrive by 13l, with the latter going on to be beaten by a shd at Newbury last weekend. There are some dangers here, but for me none strong enough to halt the selection. Should win and win nicely. 325 Fairyhouse - Arvika Ligeonneire Bet 365 BOG Another Mullins recruit from France. Ran well on hurdles debut in France, with the winner subsequently running well and the 3rd subsequently winning.Willie/Patrick have a phenonmonal record in these Irish bumpers and this 4yo should be able to score at the first time of asking since moving from France. Led to believe that he will love the ground and has a nice turn of foot. Might not have to be too special to see off this field, but Al Feros rates as a bit of a threat. Still confident he can score though.

[mileni4uk]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 You better put your bet on Dunguib here, mate. "At the moment we are going to stick to novice races, but I would imagine he'll have an entry in the Champion Hurdle. If we did go down that route we might look at the Irish Champion Hurdle beforehand, but all the options are open and we just want to make sure we make the right decision." They really seem to be thinking about it :ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010

You better put your bet on Dunguib here, mate. "At the moment we are going to stick to novice races, but I would imagine he'll have an entry in the Champion Hurdle. If we did go down that route we might look at the Irish Champion Hurdle beforehand, but all the options are open and we just want to make sure we make the right decision." They really seem to be thinking about it :ok

Cheers mate, I put it in another thread somewhere... so am at least covered. Will update this thread's totals tomorrow as I have a few bets tomorrow.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bets for today.... reasoning posted up before racing. 2:05 Punch - Barker 7pts WIN @ 7/2 PP BOG 2:35 Punch - Citizen Vic 4pts WIN @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG 3:05 Punch - Financial Reward 1pt E.W @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG 2:40 War - Hideaway 1pt E.W @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG 2:20 Kel - Royal Rosa 2pts E.W @ 13/2 Bet265 BOG 12:10 War - Screaming Brave 11pts WIN @ 11/10 Bet365 BOG

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 All Bet365 BOG unless stated otherwise Bet 119 - 1210 Warwick Screaming Brave 11pts WIN @ 11/10 Highest rated horse in the field here by a fair bit out of the raced horses. Further improvement could come in time. Should be too good here, after winning nicely enough lto. Jumps his hurdles well enough and can only get better. Ground not great for him, but class should tell. Bet 120 - 205 Punchestown Barker 7pts WIN @ 7/2 PP BOG A horse who is going places and could quite feasibly play a leading role in the Champion Chase come March. Stamina a slight concern, but he ran Aran Concerto very close over this distance in the spring. Ground not completely ideal but he has won on soft and heavy so he will act on the ground. Joncol will be all the rage, following Tranquil Sea's PP win but he will need to improve again to see off the selection and Aran. What swings it for me was the preference to go here rather than Tingle Creek. Barker to win. Bet 121 - 220 Kelso Royal Rosa 2pts E.W @ 13/2 Has been in fine form this season with 2 placings after a long layoff. Back off a very decent mark here today and will appreciate the ground. Should stay just fine and will go very close if reproducing his 5th in the Eider chase of 2008. Stable going ok with a winner and a few placings in the last few days. This will turn into a real slog and the selection's recent good performances will hold him in good stead. Can go close. Bet 122 - Citizen Vic 4pts WIN @ 7/2 On hurdles form he would be a clear pick here but disappointed on debut over fences. Will have come on for that run and runs here in place of some fancied Mullins chasers. He should stay and will like the ground. If reproducing his hurdles form then he should be too good here. Lenabame an obvious threat. Bet 123 - 240 Warwick Hideaway 1pt E.W @ 10/1 Worth taking on the market leaders here in what looks quite a weakish contest, despite the amount of runners. He ran well on hurdles debut and has run well on soft ground in bumpers. Stayed well enough lto over the same distance as today to suggest that he should be close to the business end of things here. Not too many obvious winners of this race, but the selection would be entitled to go close if at his best!! Bet 124 - 305 Punchestown Financial Reward 1pt E.W @ 7/1 Speculative punt more than anything, have backed him on all his chase starts. Well handicapped on the basis of his G2 victory this time last year when beating Top of the Rock. Ground not perfect but he should act ok on it. Will stay fine, perhaps needs a couple others to underperform but he is certainly good enough to be involved.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010

All Bet365 BOG unless stated otherwise Bet 122 - Citizen Vic 4pts WIN @ 7/2 On hurdles form he would be a clear pick here but disappointed on debut over fences. Will have come on for that run and runs here in place of some fancied Mullins chasers. He should stay and will like the ground. If reproducing his hurdles form then he should be too good here. Lenabame an obvious threat.

Also had 2.5pts E.W @ 15/2 PP BOG :eek

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Losing run hopefully comes to a halt today!! All Bet365 BOG Bet 125 - 1220 Navan Cousin Vinny/Roberto Goldback 9pts Straight Forecast @ 2.13 Should very much be a 2 horse affair here, with the exciting hurdler Cousin Vinny making his chase debut. The yard have had their problems of late and cannot be backed with a massive amount of confidence, but class should tell here, with the selection having schooled well, with no problems, won't mind the ground and should stay ok. Been looking forward to this for some time. Roberto Goldback, if putting the Drinmore fall behind him, should go close here, but would imo need to improve on his run behind Osana. He has more experience, but on hurdles ratings has plenty to find with Cousin Vinny. Bet 126 - 27.31 pts WIN treble 100 Cork Quel Esprit @ 1/2 Despite yard problems, it will be a huge surprise if he doesn't win here. Mullins chose this race over the G1 event at Navan, where he would have been as short a price. Slammed subesquent winner Hugo de Vindecy lto, and only ever been beaten once, when 4th in Champion Bumper, which is proving very hot form. Will love the ground today, jumps well and looks every inch a stayer!! A leading player in the Novice hurdle (staying) at Cheltenham and will need to win here to further enhance those claims. 1250 Navan Donnas Palm @ 1/2 Noel Meade's exciting prospect accelerated nicely away from Mourad lto in horrendous conditions to show that he could be more than capable of picking up decent prizes this season. Will possibly be run at a slowish pace here today and I fully expect the selection to have just too much in the way of turn of foot for these rivals today. Very much has conditions to suit. Price reflects that, but he looks worth it. 120 Navan Rhyl Accord @ 11/10 Massive gamble taken here, but he will have no problem in leading from the front, so a tactical slow pace probably won't be an issue, even if it was he has a very decent turn of foot and will stay all day. Won very nicely on hurdles debut, as easy as you like and looks a real star in the making. Mullins has chosen him over the 7 entries he held, indicating that he could be more than capable. Will like the ground and as said earlier, will stay all day and can quicken very nicely when asked. Opponents are no mugs, but if he is to fulfil his potential this season, he will need to see off better.