RB's NH thread 2009/2010

[fintron]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 RE point to point form, how do you actually view it, if you can at all? Quite often I see GB PTP form listed in the RP stats within a horses profile but cannot see the distance over which the wins came. They show Irish form but no GB form.....

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 1 race in, already -12pts for day. Oh dear :eek Fin I don't know mate about the PTP, but Im gonna look around.

[diamond1924]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 It's early

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Um bad day at the office. 2 wins from my 7 horses, even then one of them was handed on a plate. 36pts staked 2 winners Five Dream 11/2 (2pts) and Sonowyouno 9/2 and backed into 9/4(2pts) 24pts returned 12pt loss on the day. So Bank 2 looks like Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 516.2pts Closing Bank - 504.2pts Profit/Loss - +4.2pts So, despite a bad day. Thread still in profit after 15 Bets. Looking forward to tomorrow, where I am setting aside 10% of my bank as long as I can find the right horses at the right prices.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 FFS!!! Just spent ages writing up my bets for the day only for it to delete. Bet 16 - 300 Wincanton Templer 2pts E/W @ 13/2 Bet365 BOG Templer has been sracing back up the weights after dropping some 20lbs from his highest mark. Now just 2lbs from his highest mark, but 3lb higher than his last winning mark. Impressive young Hawkins takes weight off him, so he is well handicapped despite the rise in weights. On a hat trick, but not guaranteed to stay, taking a punt he will though. Bet 17 - 330 Galway Conclave 7pts WIN @ 13/8 Bet365 BOG Hasn't achieved much during his career, but making his first start for Willie Mullins today and they are expecting decent things from him. A very moderate field, and despite a short price for what he has achieved he does go well round here, winning his last 2 starts. Should possess enough basic speed to beat this field over 2m, rather than his optimum 2m4f. Bet 18 - Couer Brule 135 Aintree 2pts E/W @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG Short price favourite definitely not for me on his first start, may well be something special but not for me. Selection ran well enough on debut to suggest that he is capable of taking a small race of a similar standard when finishing behind Alazan of the Hobbs yard. That racecourse experience and promising finish may well see him spring an upset here. At 9/1 he certainly looks good e/w value.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 19 - Magic Merlin 435 Towcester 1pt E/W @ 20/1 Bet365 BOG Been off the track for 18 months, but might not have to be 100% fit to be competitive in this race. Bottom weight and only 2lbs higher than his win mark of 18 months ago but 8lbs lower than he has run off.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 20 - 320 Aintree Tramantano 2 pts WIN @ 5/1 Bet365 BOG Has a very good record on seasonal debuts, won this race off 6lbs lower last season but he has run well in the past off his current 133 rating. Acts on the ground and has plenty speed. Worry is N-T-D's horses not going great at the moment, but it almost certain that the selection will be ready for this, just as he has been ready for his seasonal start just about every year. Also ran a cracker here when 3rd behind Oh Crick in April. 5/1 seems decent value.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 21 - Cutthelugsreilly 430 Aintree 5pts WIN @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG Can't believe the price of ths one. Disappointed when a short price favourite first time out, but stayed on at the end of the race to take 2nd place when even that looked unlikely. If head screwed on from the start today, and he has learned from his racecourse experience then he should be good enough to break his maiden at the second time of asking. 7/2 looks massive, perhaps a good thing that Nicholls horses blew up yesterday, as better value could be had today. He would not be that price, had some of Nicholls horses landed yesterday.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Another disappointing day s/r wise. Only 1 winning bet from 6. Templer ran disappointingly, but wouldn't have coped with Toby Jug or Bowleaze if firing in my opinion. Conclave a major letdown, especially at the price he returned. Will be avoiding him for a while to come. Couer Brule ran well enough. I was right in taking the short price fav on, just chose the wrong horse. On another day he would have battled on and held onto 3rd. Magic Merlin didn't finish too far off 3rd place, even though down the field. Will improve for the run. Cutthelugsreilly has disappointed twice now. Maybe he just isn't a bumper horse and we won't see the best of him until he sees an obstacle. Tramantano ran a cracker. :ok Total Staked on the day - 24pts Total Returned - 15pts (-9pts) Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 504.2pts Closing Bank - 495.2pts Profit/Loss - -4.8pts Disappointing to see the thread in deficit already. :eyes

[fintron]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Still early days mate and those arent heavy losses :ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010

Still early days mate and those arent heavy losses :ok

Thanks mate :ok Onto today... Bet 22 - 1:35 Galway, Luska Lad/Liss Na Trini Straight F/C 2pts @ 2.67 Bet365 As said in the Galway thread, this for me is very much a 2 horse race. Both potentially high class animals who have very good form as bumper horses. Providing they take to hurdles, then nothing should beat the 2 of them. Luska Lad's form just stands out that bit more to me, and whilst the single odds were not attractive to me, the forecast odds are and judging by what I have seen of these 2 and the other horses in the field, the odds seem good value. Just a pity Dunguib's owners/trainer chose yesterday instead of this race. :sad

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Not too disappointed with the outcome today. Luska lad impressed. I only dismissed the second as his PTP victory came over 3m. Didn't think he would have the speed for 2m. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 495.2pts Closing Bank - 493.2pts Profit/Loss - -6.8pts

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 23 - 3:25 Punchestown Clan Tara 2pts E/W @ 6/1 Bet365 BOG Only this price due to the very short priced favourite Pandorama. The fav is a worthy favourite based on last season's performances when only beaten by Mikael D;Haguenet, and fortunate to win LTO as Cousin Vinny U/R when all over Pandorama. The selection has all the armoury to be a big threat to the favourite here, every time he was beaten last season it was a by a high class animal, Mikael D'Haguenet, Midnight Club, Oscar Dan Dan, all of whom are subsequent high profile winners. Goes well on the ground and his best trip is likely to be over 2m4f, with figures over Distance reading, 11314, so entitled to go close here today.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 24 - 1:25 Punchestown All Diamonds 1pt E/W @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG Still a maiden after 17 hurdles runs, so looking very exposed but prior to his last run, he was going close, but not quite getting there. His second behind Serpantaria and 3rd behind Fosters Cross isn't looking too bad now and some hope can be taken from those runs. Not a lot of confidence can be inspired from his record over hurdles but in a very weak contest he still may be overpriced. Taking a punt.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Thought I had posted this one... Bet 25 - 4:25 Punchestown Vertige Dore 9pts WIN @ 11/10 Bet365 BOG This one is absolute banker material for me, providing he runs to the potential shown on debut. Yard say he is in fine form and although a beatn odds on fav on his only start, the winner has subsequently won again, as has the 3rd in the race. Mullins and son do very well in these type of races and a big run expected here. Ideal opportunity to open his account here, in a smallish field as far as Irish bumpers generally go.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Some slight profit with the 1st 2 bets today, (+1.4 and +0.4). Thought Clan Tara was a touch unfortunate not to win, and All Diamonds ran well enough in 3rd. Again, I end the day in deficit though, as my big selection fails to land the odds. Vertige Dore was travelling well and going as good as anything before being badly hampered and snatched up. Such is my luck at the moment, he was the only horse affected and lost some 10/15 lengths instantly and some more whilst trying to re-gather momentum. Done brilliantly to come back for 5th, but this thread is taking a worrying trend now, after only 25 bets. Scary thing is I have 2 or 3 big fancies in Ireland tomorrow, but due to the losers I am backing and posting, I am wary about actually backing them. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 493.2pts Closing Bank - 487pts Profit/Loss - -13pts

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Had a couple more ante-post. Will update bank details later. Haven't had time to post these up, but at least one user knows I took the prices at the time. Mikael D'Haguenet 2010 Arkle Chase 2 pts WIN @ 14/1 Betfair Zaidpour 2010 Triumph Hurdle 3 pts E/W @ 33/1 Bet365 VERY excited about Zaidpour. Mullins feels he is better than Mourad was last season at this point, and Mourad ran a cracker in the Triumph last season.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 A few for me today. Will post up reasoning soon. Very busy at the moment, but as I am charting every NH bet, I will post these. Bank 1 - Antepost. Glencove Marina 3pts to place @ 16/1 GOLD CUP 2010. Betfair (This was a few days ago, havent had time to post it up. Mileni was aware of it at the time :ok. Reason I state Milen's name is the price had long gone last I checked. Bank 2 - Main Bank. All Bet365 BOG 1:50 Ascot - Aimigayle - 0.5 Points E/W @ 20/1 2 x 8pts single and a 4pt Double 1:20 Ascot - French Opera @ 6/5 2:25 Ascot - You're The Top @ 11/10 3:00 Ascot - Kickahead 1.5 pts E/W @ 8/1 2:55 Wetherby - Deep Purple 3 pts WIN @ 10/3 2 x 6pts Single and 3pt Double 1:10 Wetherby - Manor Park @ 5/6 3:25 Wetherby - Fair Along @ 2/1 3:15 Naas - Mythical Prince 2pts E/W @ 12/1 4:20 Naas - Talab 4pts WIN @ 5/4 50 pts staked :eek Reasoning before first race :ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 26 - 1:50 Ascot Aimigayle 0.5pts E/W @ 20/1 More habit for me than anything. I have backed him on just about every run and would hate to miss the day that he comes in at a decent price. A very hot race where any one of 7 or 8 could realisitcallty win the race, he does have some half decent form in the book over similar distances and will be ok on the ground. 7lbs higher than last win, so plenty to find but UR off the same mark on his last run, so we don't really know for sure if he is well handicapped or not. Worth a punt at small stakes e/w at decent odds. Bet 27 - 120 Ascot French Opera 8pts WIN @ 6/5 Can't believe he is odds against with the form he has in the book. Far and away the best form in this field. Beaten over fences by some very decent horses who have some very big targets this season. Already had four chases and didn't disgrace himself in any and this race represents a slight drop in class. Will get the 19f no problem and ground should be fine. Will be surprised if he doesn't start odds on. Bet 28 - 2:25 Ascot You're The Top 8pts WIN Ran ok on his first couple of starts before being dropped in class to allow him to get his head in front. He did so at the 5th time of asking in a maiden hurdle before being turned out quickly and winning a class 4 Novice Hurdle. Starts this season, stepped back up in class slightly, and despite a slow start to the season for Henderson, he has to start firing sooner or later, and why not today? Carries 10lb more than the market rival William Hogarth but is rated 16lb higher, so the latter has something to find and the winning habit the selection got at the end of last season could be enough to see him get his head in front here. Bet 29 - 4pt double with Bets 27 and 28. Bet 30 - 300 Ascot - Kickahead 1.5pts E/W @ 8/1 Very progressive animal who has ran very well in scoring on last two outings off 109 and 116. 7lbs higher again here but unlike many of his rivals he will be fit here, and not in need of a run. Has had four runs since August with figures reading 1U11, so like You're the top, a recent winning habit could out the selection at an advantage here and if contuining the progression he has made, 8/1 looks good value. Bet 31 - 255 Wetherby Deep Purple 3pts WIN Very interesting runner in this race with the obvious stamina doubts. He was entered in other races this weekend and I would assume the trainer wouldnt go for it, if he didnt think he would stay the 3m. Tamarinbleu and Ollie Magern could very well set up the race for something sitting just behind them here. He has some very high class form in the book and all in all a very sound jumper. At these odds in a 5 horse race, he looks very decent value. Bet 32 - 110 Wetherby Manor Park 6pts WIN @ 5/6 Caught my eye last season in Ireland when always bumping into one or two just too good. Form behind the likes of Coffee Tea or Me, Mourad and Jumbo Rio is solid form. Now with Tim Vaughan and won his debut for new stable LTO and should be good enough to win nicely here. Bet 33 - 325 Wetherby Fair Along 6pts WIN @ 2/1 Based this purely on the fact he is so well in here. In terms of ratings, he gets weight from main rivals including Petitfour. Won't have to make the running with Lough Derg in the field, but will sit just off the pace and hopefully strike late on. Big bonus that Johnson rides elsewhere and the exciting Flint takes the mount. Massive fan of the horse and he will appreciate the trip today. Bet 34 - 3 pts Double on Bets 32 and 33 Bet 35 - 315 Naas Mythical Prince 2pts E/W @ 12/1 Back over hurdles here after some very moderate to poor runs on the flat. Should appreciate the testing ground. Stamina doubt but excusing his last run over hurdles, and conentrating on his two previous where he was 1st in a maiden hurdle and 5th in a Novice event, he could go close in this very poor looking race. Bet 36 - 4:20 Naas - Talab 4pts WIN @ 5/4 Beaten on only start by a very good WP Mullins horse who was a previous winner. Stayed on well enough at big odds to suggest that further next time out could be beneficial. That was over 2m, steps up to 2m3f today. That race working out well enough to suggest that he can score today in what isn't the best looking company in the world. Everything else will have to improve remarkabely to beat the selection.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 37 - 1:35 Naas Made In Taipan 2pts WIN @ 10/3 Bet365 BOG Very classy animal over 2m and his 4th in the Arkle and 3rd's at Aintree and Puncheston were very good runs. Has good form here at Naas, last 3 runs reading 212. Many of his rivals here including favourite Tranquil Sea are not natural two milers, and with the continuing drift on the selection, who also appreciates testing ground, he is becoming a very good value price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Good day, mate. Well done. Really unlucky on Made In Taipan as well. You shouldn't have mentioned his price was drifting. I was never going to back him after seeing him just 5/2 in the morning :lol

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010

You shouldn't have mentioned his price was drifting. I was never going to back him after seeing him just 5/2 in the morning :lol

oops :lol That said, I reckon he had every chance until unseating Davy Russell.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 All were taken as BOG, just as well the amount of drifters today :cow Bet 26 - 1:50 Ascot Aimigayle 0.5pts E/W @ 20/1 2nd :cow:cow Bet 27 - 120 Ascot French Opera 8pts WIN @ 6/5 1st :cow:cow @ 5/4 :eek Bet 28 - 2:25 Ascot You're The Top 8pts WIN 1st :cow:cow @ 6/4 :eek Bet 29 - 4pt double with Bets 27 and 28. :cow:cow Bet 30 - 300 Ascot - Kickahead 1.5pts E/W @ 8/1 Unplaced :eyes Bet 31 - 255 Wetherby Deep Purple 3pts WIN 1st @ 9/2 :cow:cow Bet 32 - 110 Wetherby Manor Park 6pts WIN @ 5/6 Ran a shocker. 3rd :eyes Bet 33 - 325 Wetherby Fair Along 6pts WIN @ 2/1 1st @ 3/1 :cow:cow Bet 34 - 3 pts Double on Bets 32 and 33 Manor Park let it down. :eyes Bet 35 - 315 Naas Mythical Prince 2pts E/W @ 12/1 3rd @ 12/1 :cow:cow Bet 36 - 4:20 Naas - Talab 4pts WIN @ 5/4 Drifted to silly odds, ran even worse than the drift suggested :sad

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Total Staked - 52pts Total Returned - 106.9pts Daily Profit/Loss - +54.9pts Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 487pts Closing Bank - 541.9pts Profit/Loss - +41.9pts Good to see a decent profit today. :clap

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 In terms of s/r 36 bets placed 13 bets have returned profit Strike Rate = 36.1 %.

[StuSimmy]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Great day today mate, keep it up :ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Gutted that Cork is off. I had a big stake Mullins treble lined up with Our Monty, Definitive Edge and Morning Supreme. :sad

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 As usual all bets were placed Bet365 BOG Bet 37 - 2:05 Carlisle Knockara Beau 3pts WIN @ 5/1 Opposing the favourite Killyglen here with a horse who was rated 145 over hurdles and won chase debut well enough to suggest he could be a decent chaser. Gets 16lb from the favourite and that weight advantage could well be too much for the fav to cope with. Worth a bet at the odds. Bet 38 - 315 Carlisle Zitenka 1pt E/W @ 20/1 Missed the early 25's. He shaped nicely towards the end of last season, when winning off 6lbs lower than he is today. Tough looking field to crack today but if coming on for the run he had 10 days ago when PU, then he could be a threat to the field here.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Knockara Beau was too good at the weights for Killyglen, nice profit made from the early price as he was hammered into 5/2. Zitenka was bet into 12/1, but didn't really figure at all. Daily profit of +13. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 541.9pts Closing Bank - 554.9pts Profit/Loss - +54.9pts

[RuleBritannia]

Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Usual, Bet365 and BOG Bet 39 - 110 Plumpton Rileyev 8pts WIN @ 5/2 Really fancy this one. Ran well enough on debut over hurdles, just finding a few too good, Ski Sunday, Nice Style, Thumbs Up, Black Jacari, Rio Liane, All very nice sorts and would beat anything in today's field. LTO he ran well in finishing 2nd to a horse who has subsequently won 3 times, so the form of his previous races are working out well and if fit enough to day should be good enough to win. Bet 40 - 225 Plumpton Hector's House 7 pts WIN @ 7/4 Only previous run over hurdles seen him finish 2nd behind a smart sort in Riptide who subsequently finished 2nd behind Barizan, so form looking ok from that. Evan Williams not been in great form but won the big race on saturday, so signs there that his horses may come into a bit of form. Looks good enough to win today. Bet 41 - 120 Kempton Pak Jack 2pts E/W @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG Very interesting horse in this field. Has been chasing for 4 years without a single hurdles race in that time. Ran well enough in his hurdles races before that. Has been close up in majority of his races despite the figures not looking too great at all and has been in the top 3 in 13 of his 23 career starts (3/5 over hurdles). Will stay the trip, whereas others will have slight doubts. Worth a punt at the odds.