RuleBritannia Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 60 - 3:00 Down Royal Herecomesthetruth 4pts WIN @ 5/2 Bet365 BOG Drifted slightly from 9/4 which is probably a little concern, but of the 3 at the head of the market, he seems to be the most solid as Siegemaster on the whole is a 3miler and ForPaddydePlasterer is on the whole a 2miler, and the esleections best form has come over this distance which seems to be his optimum. Acts very well on the ground as well, and seems to act a lot better in small fields. At the odds available, then he is the best bet for me in this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 7, 2009 Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Ellerslie George and Herecomesthetruth. Wouldn't have harmed if I had backed those two, would it? :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Ellerslie George and Herecomesthetruth. Wouldn't have harmed if I had backed those two, would it? :\ Didn't back Elerslie George myself either :$ As I said to you mate, I fancied him to win the race, but it was a race betting wise I was steering clear of. :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 7, 2009 Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 I had my fancy placed, so it's fine. But the drift on Herecomesthetruth worreid me, as I know when he drifts he is not very likely to run well. Like last time when PU. Won't listen to Harry Findlay anymore :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 24 points staked today. 27.5 points returned. Another day with a slight profit.... takes me back above +50 in total, but things could have been mightily different had Notre Pere and Gullible Gordon not fallen. Oh well c'est la vie. 60 bets in and profit showing, so happy enough with that and a few bets lined up for tomorrow. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 548pts Closing Bank - 551.5 pts Profit/Loss - +51.5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 A few bets for today. Reasoning to be posted up soon. (365, BOG) 5pts Treble 1:10 ffos Las - Get Me Out of Here @ 4/9 3:05 Hereford - Quideo de Touzaine @ 10/11 1:20 Market Rasen - Mille Chief @ 8/11 3 x 3pts Double, 1 x 6pts Treble 1:05 Limerick - Quinola Des Obeaux @ 4/5 2:40 Limerick - Morning Supreme @ 4/7 3:30 Navan - Catch Me @ 4/7 12:55 Navan - Oscar Dan Dan 2pts WIN @ 7/2 2:30 Navan - Made In Taipan 2pts WIN @ 4/1 3:00 Navan - Roberto Goldback 1pt WIN @ 7/2 Paddy Power BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 61 - 5pts Treble 1:10 Ffos Las - Get Me Out of Here @ 4/9 Looks very much like a bit of a penalty kick here, with a straight match between the selection and Pure Faith. The latter was beaten 8l lto by McCoy's mount and only recieves an additional 2lbs for that effort. Only doubt is Jonjo's horses aren't firing but even still, should be far too good for moderate looking opposition. 1:20 Market Rasen Mille Chief @ 8/11 Very interesting runner here, as Alan King's juvenile has bypassed entries at more fanciful courses and better class races to run here. If he is to justify ante-post favouritism for the Triumph Hurdle then he will have to win here. Smart horse on the flat who acts well on soft ground. The one to beat here and if the vibes are correct, he will win here. 3:05 Hereford Quideo De Touzaine @ 10/11 Nicholls horses have been blowing hot and cold in recent weeks, but yesterday signalled a return to form with 4 winners and several places, with Gullible Gordon falling when going well too. The selection makes his debut over hurdles today after an impressive enough win in a bumper last march. No big fanciful plans for this one yet, but is expected to be able to win here against a field of horses who are unlikely to be winning many races this season. Noble Aran is interesting at a price for the Boxall yard, but the selection is expected to score here and should act well on the ground. Good to see young Skelton taking the ride as well. Another plus, in my book. Bet 62 - 3x 3pt Doubles, 1 x 6pt Treble 1:05 Limerick - Quinola Des Obeaux @ 4/5 After the disappointment of Cadspeed yesterday in a similar contest, the selection will be primed to put Mullins novice hurdlers back in track. Never got going at all in the Cheltenham bumper and was in distress some way from home and that run can be completely discounted. On his previous two bumpers, he couldn't have won much easier and looked a very bright prospect. One of Mullins "ones to watch" this season and gets ground to suit today. Should be good enough with E Mullins on board today, to beat this field. 4/5 is a value price as I expect him to go off much shorter. 2:40 Limerick - Morning Supreme @ 4/7 Another very good mare to come out the Mullins yard, following in the wake of Quevega and Sesenta. She is very highly thought of and has decent end of season targets. 5th in the Cheltenham bumper and 3rd in the Aintree version, she is expected to hand Dunguib yet another boost today. She has ground to suit and has schooled well over hurdles. Easy looking race to start off with, judging by the runs of those who have had a run. Ruby can score on her today. 3:30 Navan - Catch Me @ 4/7 Very high class hurdler, who took to chasing reasonabely well on debut. Will have improved for that outing, and will need to have as Oscar Looby looks a decent rival. Expected to possess too much in the way of speed and ability though. All his best form has been in the mud, so he will revel the Heavy ground today. On the drift, but I don't see that as an issue. 4 rivals to beat and should beat all 4. Bet 63 - 12:55 Navan Oscar Dan Dan 2-ts WIN @ 7/2 Officially 6lb well in with the favourite Noble Prince. Would appreciate ground to be a little firmer than he gets today, but he does go ok enough on the ground to suggest that he could be overpriced. 3 others in the field, Ninetieth Minute, Aitmatov and Mister Top Notch will probably come on for the run, in my eyes leaving this as a matchup and I feel that Oscar Dan Dan's price represents his chances more, than the current 6/4 ish for the favourite. Bet 64 - 2:30 Navan Made In Taipan 2pts WIN @ 4/1 Big Zeb is all the rage here, following his very narrow defeat to Master Minded lto @ Punchestown but for me, Made In Taipan cannot be ruled out. Ground is absolutely perfect for him, as he is a mud lover. He goes well around Navan and is 2/2 here, including a G2 c&d win. Has won over a little further, so will definitely stay the full 2m on this ground. Unseated rider lto but held every chance and will definitely have come on for that run, as he went far enough to build fitness levels up. I feel at the prices, he is very much worth opposing the odds on jolly with. Bet 65 - 3:00 Navan Roberto Goldback 1pt WIN @ 7/2 PP BOG Again, I see this a match up between two horses making their chase debuts. Osana and Roberto Goldback. I am taking the latter due to the better price available and the fact that he definitely acts on heavy ground in Ireland. Heavy in Ireland is completely different to the heavy ground we encounter in the UK, so knowing a horse will act on it helps. Ideally he would want a little further but I am taking him to beat Osana who makes his first start for his new yard. Will be very difficult for him to run away with the race from the front here in these conditions without coming back to the field. I do hope I am wrong though, despite backing against him as I believe he is potentially a high class chaser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1nsome Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 65 - 3:00 Navan Roberto Goldback 1pt WIN @ 7/2 PP BOG Again, I see this a match up between two horses making their chase debuts. Osana and Roberto Goldback. I am taking the latter due to the better price available and the fact that he definitely acts on heavy ground in Ireland. Heavy in Ireland is completely different to the heavy ground we encounter in the UK, so knowing a horse will act on it helps. Ideally he would want a little further but I am taking him to beat Osana who makes his first start for his new yard. Will be very difficult for him to run away with the race from the front here in these conditions without coming back to the field. I do hope I am wrong though, despite backing against him as I believe he is potentially a high class chaser. --------------------------------------------------- Think your wrong here Rule Been waiting on OSANA going over the bigger obstacles,and was hopeing Pipe went the WellChief route with him last year-1 pop over the chases and then the Arkle. Well with all the palavar over TomScud getting jocked off in favour of owners favoured jockey--maybe its best that he is with new yard this year. Bold front runner and good jumper who attacts his fences-- cannot see a better prospect for the Arkle--[champion hurdle 2nd] got 44s,42s and 32s--see he is now down to 18s I believe he will be in the first 3 in betting come Cheltenham time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 --------------------------------------------------- Think your wrong here Rule Been waiting on OSANA going over the bigger obstacles,and was hopeing Pipe went the WellChief route with him last year-1 pop over the chases and then the Arkle. Well with all the palavar over TomScud getting jocked off in favour of owners favoured jockey--maybe its best that he is with new yard this year. Bold front runner and good jumper who attacts his fences-- cannot see a better prospect for the Arkle--[champion hurdle 2nd] got 44s,42s and 32s--see he is now down to 18s I believe he will be in the first 3 in betting come Cheltenham time I do hope I am wrong though, despite backing against him as I believe he is potentially a high class chaser. :ok I do think it will be tough to make all in this ground though, main reason for backing against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Looks like it isn't going to be my day :eek Ok, Quinola Des Obeaux wins impressively, but Oscar Dan Dan falls at the second last when going as well i not better than the winner and Mille Chief is cruising and brought down at the second last. :eyes Thread could take a big dent today. :hope for the Irish races keeping it going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 same here, had DanDan and Mille Chief too. :hope things pick up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 One of thos days I am afraid with 3 of my selections falling when looking every bit the winner. Most sickening for me was Catch Me, as I would have finished day in profit had he cleared the last. I also feel that had Roberto Goldback jumped the last well then he could have won, as Osana took about 4 or 5l out of him from the last fence and was tying up as Roberto Goldback was closing. -13.51pts on the day thanks to Morning Supreme and Quinola Des Obeaux, who were both mightily impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 551.5pts Closing Bank - 537.99 pts Profit/Loss - +37.99 pts Still nicely enough in profit, despite an "unlucky day". :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 66 - 1:55 Carlisle Roll Along 8pts WIN @ Evens Bet365 BOG The more I look at this race, the more I am attracted to Roll Along. His record when fresh is pretty impressive, with 1st time out figures stretching back 5 years reading, 11111. Has plenty in hand here on OR over everyone in the field as well, rated 160 and running off the same weight as likely danger Money Trix who is rated 143. Whether the latter can find 17lbs or not, or Roll Along will run well below par remains to be seen. Graham Lee is more than able to give him a decent ride here, he jumps well on the whole, will stay the 3m and will be fine on the ground. Everything in the field has plenty to find, and if Roll Along jumps well then I am confident he wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 67 - 2:45 Southwell Otto Quercus 2pts WIN @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG More of a hunch this one than anything, but as said before I am charting every bet, for whatever reason. Paddy Brennan takes the ride aboard Charlie Longsden's novice hurdler here, which is interesting as he could have been at Carlisle riding Roll Along for NTD. This is also Brennan's only mount of the day here, which is also something I look out for. Can't have either of the 2 newcomers, no matter how good they prove to be, I can't back them without any previous knowledge whatsoever. If Otto Quercus can recoup from the fall he had lto, then he may be able to win this race which doesn't look to have the strnegth in depth that his last race did. Decent horse on the flat in France, and hoping to convert some of that speed to hurdling. Worth a punt for me, with the interesting jockey booking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 68 and 69 -245 Carlisle Or D'oudaries and Mister Potter 0.5pts E/W @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG Or D'Oudaries : Has previous hurdliung form on soft and heavy, so will also act on this ground. 4lbs higher than last win but 2lbs lower than when finshing 2nd lto which obviously brings him into the equation here. Has kept fanciful company in the past and run very well in doing so, particularly on this type of ground and with form over 2m5f as well, he is entitled to be in the mix here. Likely stayer and will appreciate the ground, whilst looking well handicapped. Mister Potter : Running off the same mark as his last win, and also the same mark that he has retained for his last 6 runs with figures reading F4134P. The PU run lto can be discounted as it was on gd ground which clearly doesn't suit as he prefers plenty cut in the ground, the softer the better. Indeed, the ground may not be soft enough he likes it that muddy. Only chase win to date was over 2m6f, and has a couple of hurdle victories over 2m4f, so he should definitely be staying on in the mud here. One reservation is that it is unknown whether he goes well fresh or not, as both his last two seasonal debuts have ended in him falling, so fingers crossed he just gets around. If he does he could go close though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Profit slowly, slipping away as another bad day. Roll Along ran a shocker, take nothing away from the winner but Roll Along was shocking from the word go. Otto Quercus will pick up a similar type race, just fond one too good today. Mister Potter finishes 2nd at 10/1, the winner was one I had ruled out straught away, couldnt see how it would win, but there you go. -9.5pts on the day. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 537.99pts Closing Bank - 528.49 pts Profit/Loss - +28.49 pts Really need a good day or 2, to get the momentum back. :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Profit slowly, slipping away as another bad day. Roll Along ran a shocker, take nothing away from the winner but Roll Along was shocking from the word go. Otto Quercus will pick up a similar type race, just fond one too good today. Mister Potter finishes 2nd at 10/1, the winner was one I had ruled out straught away, couldnt see how it would win, but there you go. -9.5pts on the day. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 537.99pts Closing Bank - 528.49 pts Profit/Loss - +28.49 pts Really need a good day or 2, to get the momentum back. :eyes Keep the faith mate. Mister Potter was oh so close, and if that had held on, it would have been very different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Keep the faith mate. Mister Potter was oh so close' date=' and if that had held on, it would have been very different.[/quote'] Cheers mate, I am not doubting anything,. (yet...:lol) Been close many times in the thread, backed some shockers :lol Been unlucky for a couple of days there with 5 fallers in 2 days, but on the whole I am confident I can get back on track. Just need a couple good days. :ok Maybe even need to back my strong fancies with a bit more conviction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 10, 2009 Author Share Posted November 10, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Post reasoning up a little later. Thread could take a massive dent if Nicholls/Walsh in particular don't have a big day. All bet365 BOG 240 Exeter - Inchidally Rock 9ts @ 4/6 310 Exeter - Take The Breeze 1pt E/W @ 9/2 410 Exeter - The Minack 8pts @ 5/6 1:00 Lingifield - Queen Poline 4pts @ 11/4 3:00 Lingield - Zorro De La Vega 4pts @ 7/4 2:20 Sedgefield - Farmers Cross 3pts E/W @ 7/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 10, 2009 Author Share Posted November 10, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 70 - 1:00 Lingfield Queen Poline 4pts WIN @ 11/4 Decent Mares Novice hurdle here, with many holding live chances based on previous form and potential. The one I am concentrating on is Queen Poline. Disappointing in her 3rd bumper but perhaps unsuited by no cut in the ground at all. With both her previous bumper wins, the ground was soft and heavy. Good/soft today suggests that she will get some cut and it is felt that she will act on the ground fine. Think her bumpers were just a little stronger than other bumper winners in the field and those who have had hurdle runs haven't shown themselves to be high class, so if taking to hurdles, then she should be good enough to win here. 11/4 is value in my eyes, a drift would be nice too. Bet 71 - 2:20 Sedgefield - Farmers Cross 3pts E/W @ 7/1 Due to go chasing soon, making his first start for Ferdy Murphy today. The yard has been in good form of late and the selection gets ground to suit here, and although up in the weights, 9lb higher than lto, he still looks progressive enough and well enough handicapped in this field. Too many negatives surrounding most of the field and I am taking a chance that the fact my pick is still relativel unexposed that there is further improvement to come. 7/1 looks a great price, particularly as I can't see him out the top 3. The other Ferdy runner Divers, rates as my main danger. Bet 72 - 2:40 Exeter Inchidally Rock 9pts WIN @ 4/6 Bred for chasing and perhaps didn't fulfil promise over hurdles. 3 Irish PTP wins suggest that he is good over fences, and should hold too many aces for this field. Not an original selection, but should be a very good one. Bet 73 - 3:00 Linfield - Zorro De La Vega 4pts WIN @ 7/4 Fascinating horse, who reminds me of Little Shilling last season, has gone up steeply in the weights after a trio of wins, but has improved with each rise in the weights. Despite, being 34lb higher than the first of the wins, the nature of all 3 wins suggest that he can still win here off this mark of 118 which is 7lb higher than highest ever mark. I am taking him to carry on with the winning momentum he has built up. 7/4 is about the right price to be taking. Any shorter would probably make it a no bet. Bet 74 - 310 Exeter - Take The Breeze 1pt E/W @ 9/2 Fascinating contest which Copper Bleu SHOULD win, but I reckon Take The Breeze will definitely be there or thereabouts. If he wins, I stand to make a 6.4pt profit, if only placing, I will lose 0.1pts which isn't much, and makes it worthwhile to me backing him. he was only rated 4lb lower than Copper Bleu over hurdles, so should if taking to fences be a closer than the betting suggests. I am banking on the fact I have a reliable jockey on my side, whereas the favourite is being ridden by the enigma that is Richard Johnson. The selection will appreciate the stiff undulating track, with a decent turn of foot and also appreciates softening ground. Should go close, certainly entitled to. Bet 75 - 4:10 Exeter The Minack 8pts WIN @ 5/6 2 horse race hee on paper, with the selection a dual Irish PTP runner. Looks an out and stayer and will appreciate the ground and the distance being run here. Best Oscar was slightly disappointing lto when finishing a 2nd placed fav, but perhaps over a trip too short. The 2 look closely matched, but I am taking Nicholls/Walsh to strike here with a horse who won his Irish PTP in a devastating manner. Should be too good for Best Oscar but will be a great race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 10, 2009 Author Share Posted November 10, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 73 - 3:00 Linfield - Zorro De La Vega 4pts WIN @ 7/4 :puke ANOTHER faller when going well :lol 6 in 4 days now :lol If I don't laugh, I will cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 10, 2009 Author Share Posted November 10, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 3 winners, all Nicholls/Walsh, 2 well beaten and Zorro De La Vega falling Slightly in profit though, + 5.07pts for the day, so going the right direction again. :ok Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 528.49pts Closing Bank - 533.56 pts Profit/Loss - +33.56 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Bet 76 - 12:50 Warwick Menorah 13.56pts WIN @ 6/4 Bet365 BOG Likely to be my only bet for the day. Bumper win in the summer came for Thomas Mullins and has since moved to th Hobbs yard, who see him as a nice prospect. A couple of Irish trainers were keen to have him on board but Hobbs has him now. Should be a straight match between the selection and Ranjobaie, but the manner of his bumper win and the fact he should act definitely act on the ground makes him a big positive. Ranjobaie's wins have come over 12,13 and 14f in France on good, and the ground will be a good deal softer than that today, so not guaranteed to act well on it. Hopefully the Henderson factor will drive his price down and mine up. Apparently has schooled well enough too, so it is Menorah for me in an otherwise ordinary looking Novice Hurdle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Only one bet today, but my biggest bet of the season to date. Backed in to 5/6 and wins, I didn't see the race, so don't know how he ran. 13.56 staked, 33.9 returned. Opening Bank - 500pts Starting Bank Today - 533.56pts Closing Bank - 553.9 pts Profit/Loss - +53.9 pts At first glance, I have a few of interest tomorrow, especially over the water. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Backed in to 5/6 and wins, I didn't see the race, so don't know how he ran. You would have had your hearth in your mouth if you saw his jump at the last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Oh and btw from last night ... 22:39:45 RB: Dont care what price Schelm is 22:39:55 RB: will still be too short 22:40:05 RB: 10000/1 is too short against those 3 22:40:05 RB: :D :lol:lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 11, 2009 Author Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 Oh and btw from last night ... 22:39:45 RB: Dont care what price Schelm is 22:39:55 RB: will still be too short 22:40:05 RB: 10000/1 is too short against those 3 22:40:05 RB: :D :lol:lol:lol Now that's top class judgement :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted November 11, 2009 Share Posted November 11, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 going well RB :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted November 12, 2009 Author Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: RB's NH thread 2009/2010 going well RB :ok up and down..... but cheers mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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