Kithanga Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 I'm currently playing around with the idea of choosing a certain type of race to follow due to the fact that I'll see the same horses running time & again. The theory being that I'll get to know them and their requirements much better, improving the speed at which I can assess a race and the resulting profit level. Sounds simple but it's not proving easy to define what the 'type' should be......Does anyone else do this? Are there any problems with this approach that you've found? Does it work for you? Splitting them by distance, for example 5/6f sprinters seems fine at first but is difficult to keep going when you're looking into a class 6 handicap at Redcar on a day of Class 1/2 middle distance races at the better courses. Splitting by class 1/2 has similar problems. Horses don't stick to the same class of races so the theory of seeing the same ones running isn't true. Tomorrow's class 2 handicap at Ponte for example has only one runner that's been in a class 2 race in it's last three runs and that was 11th of 17. It's looks more like a class 3 contest whereas Kempton's class 3 handicap is full of animal who've previously raced at class 1 & 2. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Do you know your horses? I remember seeing, i think it was Trotter, say he was guna focus on Irish racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Do you know your horses? Come Late October/Early November, I am concentrating on Irish Jumping. Will also be looking to use this to my advantage regarding Irish raiders over here for our big meetings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Do you know your horses? I personally tend to try to stick to 5/6 furlong sprints or races over 1m 2f. I don't know why 1m 2f is profitable, but when I broke my results down by distance, those three trips proved most profitable. Races over 7-8f were a big drain. Like you say, you get to know the horses and their best conditions. The number of times I've seen Barney McGrew and Jimmy Styles, for example, I'd immediate know they were handicapped to have a chance of winning soon, and would need a good pace to chase, without really looking into their form deeply. And on the flip side, you get to know the pacemakers that are best when allowed a soft lead, such as Dvinsky, again, saving time for going into their form. I have still found it tempting to bet on other races outside of these distances though, and perhaps this is where a lack of discipline comes into play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Do you know your horses? Dvinsky runs tomoz nite fin and gotta have a squeak ;) As for me personally I tend to bet all over the place and really do need to sit down and work out where im best etc. but i guess its what ever suits you much like all other betting antics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Do you know your horses? I'm really terrible for this......... I 'specialise' all the time but I can't stick to anything for more than a few weeks, then I move on to something else..........:unsure So far this season I've specialised in Class 2 Handicaps, all 5 furlong races, sprint handicaps, 2 year old pattern races, European group one races, all weather, Irish racing, UK listed and above for all-aged........... I've found 2 main problems with specialising The first is that whenever I pick something new i feel obliged to spend hours and hours researching, compiling stats on past races, trends etc.........to the extant that that process takes up all my time.........I actually enjoy doing that so it's not a huge problem as I have lots of time on my hands at the moment. But it could be a problem for others. The second, and far more serious problem, is the business of 'getting to know' the horses in your particular sub-set. I think you can just get too familiar with horses, you study a race for hours and come to the conclusion that all of them might win. Another problem is that you over-rate the horses you're familiar with and under-rate newcomers to the scene. I'm seriously thinking of having a complete change of tack and giving up all the specialisation. My new idea is to try and forget everything and pick a race a day, jumping from one type of race to another every day, and starting fresh as much as possible with no baggage of pre-conceived ideas. Treat each race I look at as a completely new puzzle where the horses might well just be numbered 1 to 12 with no names............ For my own enjoyment I might carry on with recording the European group one races, 'cos there aren't that many of them and I'm only adding to the work i've already done. And it's always nice to have an opinion about top class horses and top class races But for day to day I think I'll start flittering around........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Do you know your horses? This has been asked a few times before, just have a look at the speciality threads and one or two over in the systems section. As in my sig, I follow Novice Hurdlers for the reasons you stated above, with all the racing nowadays I find this the best option for those of us that have limited time to scan the formbook each day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Do you know your horses? Thanks everyone for your comments, useful reading. I'll have a look at those other threads you mentioned BH. The idea came to me yesterday because, as you probably know, I'm comfortable with my performance in the Group & Listed races and have been trying to improve my break even performance in handicaps. I really know pretty much all the animals in the Group / Listed area and have watched their videos and can pretty much read a race just from looking at the names now. Reading the form just refreshes my memory of the race. It got me wondering whether that was why I was winning so well in those races as opposed to my handicaps where I bet across all the classes. When reading the form of a handicap I have rarely come across most of the horses and certainly don't know much about the ones that have finished near them in their recent races. So I can't really form my own opinions without a lot of detailed study which is then wasted if I dont come across that animal again in the future. When I looked at my class 2 handicap results since 2000 I've won a significant % roi on them and I got to thinking that maybe it was because I do see them week in week out when watching the racing on a Saturday or a big meeting. It appears logical. Perhaps it was bad luck that the first class 2 handicap that I looked at today was full of class 3/4 animals and that prompted the thread. Maybe it's telling me that I should be on the 3yo's in that race as these are the most likely improvers that can move up to a class 2. Hmmm, gotta go and re-read those 3yo's at the Ponte 3.30........ Cheers guys, very helpful. K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Do you know your horses? p.s. I'll let you know how I get on in a few months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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