dannkez2407 Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Hey all, im fairly new here, im gonna use this thread to track my fave five systems. All are being bet with my real money and all have been running for around a month or so but cos im crap at maintaining my spreadsheets, i thot id track them here for all to see.... The first system is EVENS. One simple rule, any team in any league that has for the last five matches finished with an odd total of goals, back at even. On a loss i use a version of the martingale and to date have not gone beyond a run of three losses. The second system is HOME FAVES. Similar to another guy on here i back four teams at home throughout their seasons. This includes all cup matches. on a loss i will add the first stake to the next backing, ie in sequence it would be 10pts, then 20, then 30. My teams are Man utd, Barca, Real and Inter. The third system is CORRECT SCORES. Simple rules, all UK and other larger bet european leagues(italy, spain etc). Only home teams of odds of 1.5-1.9. Only back scores 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 and unquoted on BETFAIR. The stake should be calculated as so, stake= Target return/backing odds. eg. if your target return was 100pts, and you were betting 0-0 with odds of 10.0, than your stake would be 10. By only backing the six most common outcomes to those home team odds (70% of all results) you in effect DUTCH the majority outcome. The fourth system is LAY THE DRAW. One rule, only teams with home odds of 3.0-5.0, do you lay the draw. Stats show that only 17% of those matches end in a draw. Last system is OVERS. Similar to that of the overs guru on here JJ, this takes out the leg work and applies the OVERS rule to all that have odds on B365 that are lower than that of UNDERS. EG, Overs 1.8. unders 2.0 Back Overs Unders 1.8, Overs 2.0, no bet. Stats show that 78% of all these matches end in OVERS. OK... each post will now display my bets for the day. For tonight I have EVENS on Blackpool@ 1.9 stake 7.4 No home faves today Correct scores @£50 target Bor Munchen Scunthorpe Stoke Sunderland Lay the draws @£10 lays Barnsley Carlisle Nott Forest Peterborough Wrexham OVERS, kinda went all out here and bet on 22 matches tonight. Only at £2 each, because i cant be bothered to list them, ill show the stats of these after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune interesting...good luck dan.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Yeah sounds interesting and tracking bets here is always nice for you and those who are interested in the bets you chose. Good luck with this dannkez :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok so results are in...... evens - Blackpool 4-3, loss = -7.4 correct scores - Bor Munchen 0-1, loss = -30 Scunthorpe 0-0, win = +20 Stoke 4-3, win = +20 Sunderland 2-0, win = +20 Lay the draw - Barnsley 3-2, win = +10 Carlise 1-3, win = +10 Nott Forest 0-1, win = +10 Peterborough 2-0, win = +10 Wrexham 3-0, win = +10 Overs - Pretty disappointing as 10 out of 22 came in total loss of -8.73 total profit for day = +63.87 :clap:clap:clap:cow Total stake/liability = 296.4 Yield overall 21.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune How the hell did you predict the Stoke score? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune im gonna change the overs system to not include cup matches as i think the odds are distorted by this fact and doesnt account for teams like arsenal fielding a reserve side. also upon choosing games, home and away averages will be taken in to consideration and only those averaging above 3 will be bet on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune How the hell did you predict the Stoke score? LOL thats the beauty of the system, unquoted scores on betfair are among the top six for all teams with them home odds to win. So its great when they come in, i had the manu man city game on that system as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune LOL thats the beauty of the system' date=' unquoted scores on betfair are among the top six for all teams with them home odds to win. So its great when they come in, i had the manu man city game on that system as well.[/quote'] Huh, could you explain a little more about unquoted scores? Not really familiar with Betfair... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Huh' date=' could you explain a little more about unquoted scores? Not really familiar with Betfair...[/quote'] If you havent already got an account with them, join tonight, quite simply the best betting site there is out there. They are also one of the only sites out there that allow you to bet unquoted. scores range from 0-0 to 3-3 and anything 4 and above is classed as unquoted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Huh' date=' could you explain a little more about unquoted scores? Not really familiar with Betfair...[/quote'] You have some scores given you can bet on at betfair I guess. Every other score (and 4:3 score is most likely not included) which is not listed can be backed. F.e. Given Correct scores: 0:0 - 0:1 - 1:0 - 1:1 - 2:1 - 2:2 - 2:3 - 0:2 - 2:0 - 1:2 - 3:2 - 3:3 - 3:1 - 1:3 - 3:0 - 0:3 You can back those correct scores. But you can also back "any other score" (as if you back 2:0 score f.e.) which has specific odds as well. I hope thats right and you understand it :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Oh okay, thanks lads. Good luck with the system, will be following it with interest! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune tidy days work:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jl294 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune What website do you use to find a sequence of odd/even goals? I've looked everywhere. I can find places that show a tally, but no sequence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune What website do you use to find a sequence of odd/even goals? I've looked everywhere. I can find places that show a tally, but no sequence. best places to look stare you right in the face. For english and scottish leagues, i find going to news.bbc.co.uk/sport works every time. click on to football and go on the tables. twice a week ill go through the tables on there to check for sequences. If you have time, you can go on xscores.com, again go to the tables and go through any of the worlds leagues. Of course this way you can only check league sequences and it wont take in to account cup games in between. So i tend to stick to just english and scottish whilst the domestic season is flowing. During the summer though you can find a ton of them there. It can be time consuming though Hope that helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok tonights bets are as follows Home Faves - Man Utd @ 1.33 - £30 Inter @1.44 -£60 (Staking this much as they drew their last home game) No Evens tonight Correct Scores - Just going for the one tonight as none of the domestic games have drawn any. Im always dubious about doing other leagues for this system because not enough money is avalaible on betfair and so it distorts the odds. But this game had a fair bit still out there. Rennes (French league) with £50 target Lay the draw - Again the domestic didnt pull up much, but not to worry as other european league match result odds stay fairly tight, so my five of choice are- Hull Boulogne Sedan Udinese Getafe All laid at £10 Finally the overs - taking in to account no cup matches and average goals home and away. Getafe Inter Palermo Udinese Salzburg Lask Linz AA Gent Standard Luik Charleroi Grasshoppers Young boys All backed at £5 each :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jl294 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune The Law the Draw system, how much have you made? Have you tested it long enough for you to be sure or is it a tester system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune The Law the Draw system' date=' how much have you made? Have you tested it long enough for you to be sure or is it a tester system?[/quote'] Its a tester if you like. Although im of the belief the stats i researched on previous results were the tester which is why im confident enough to go straight in wit cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok, eyes down, results time Home Faves - Man Utd - i got nervous with this bet especially after united looked poor with a reserve side, so i took the opportunity to lay them as soon as they went 1-0 up Profit - £2.11 Inter - to follow suit, saw the opportunity to lay inter when they were 2 up with 20 mins left, particularly as they had conceded one already Profit - £25.54 Correct Scores - Rennes (French league) with £50 target - result 2-1, win, profit £15 Lay the draw - Hull - profit £10 Boulogne - profit £10 Sedan - profit £10 Udinese - profit £10 Getafe - profit £10 Finally the overs - taking in to account no cup matches and average goals home and away. Getafe -win Inter - win Palermo - win Udinese - lose Salzburg - win Lask Linz - win AA Gent - win Standard Luik - lose Charleroi - win Grasshoppers - win Young boys - win total profit £18 total profit for day = +110.65 (my most ever in one day) Total profit overall = +174.52 Total stake/liability = 601.4 Yield overall 29% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune very good results dann:clap:clap:clap:drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liveitlarge Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune just a thought in your correct score system isnt it a good idea to put 3-1 scoreline in as there is a good chance that teams that are odds on will score at least 3 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sd489 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Can you please explain meaning of strategy 4? Ta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune just a thought in your correct score system isnt it a good idea to put 3-1 scoreline in as there is a good chance that teams that are odds on will score at least 3 goals. hi LIL, i explored this option when doing the analysis and the 3-1 scoreline is nt in the top 6 of which i stake on. A third will go unquoted(4 and above) and besides if i add more scores to the system, i take out profit. the top 6 i work with account for 70 % of all scores at them odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Can you please explain meaning of strategy 4? Ta so not to teach you how to suck eggs, do you understand the concept of back and lay? and by my odds selection of 3-5. Dont want to sound patronising but need to know what you understand before i go in to detail..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune very good results dann:clap:clap:clap:drums cheers sidders :cheers ok...selections for tonight are bare so my risk is exposed more today, but hey you have to have a few bad ones to obtain a good perspective of an average yield, so eyes down for tonights bets........ Correct Score Xamax @ target 40, stake 25 Lay the draw Gefle @ 3.5, stake 16 Genoa @ 3.55, stake 15.69 (kept my liability to 40 on both) OVERS Gijon @ 1.88, stake 10 Genoa @ 2, stake 10 Lucerne @ 1.7, stake 10 Xamax @ 1.655, stake 10 No EVENS or HOME FAVES tonight wish me luck, i hate not putting on so many, it lessens the spread and heightens the risk, but hey where would the excitment be if i didnt do them......... :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok ppl, need some advice please.... im getting twitchy about tonights games now, reason being i dont like backing the amounts i am when i dont have enough games in the system to minimise my risk. i think in future i should apply a rule where unless i cant bet on a minimum of four games in my LTD system and my correct score system, i should back out of that day and wait for the midweek/weekend action. Also have a minimum of say 8 games for overs. Obviously i cant apply a minimum to home faves or evens as these are long term bets. and as for tonight, in my LTD and overs system, i think i should back and lay accordingly to green up once a goal is scored, your thoughts if you may.........:wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul2009 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hello there... I am new to this forum, and the first system i came accross was this one. Early days i know, but to get +63.87, and +110.65 points profit in two days is excellent. Not many, if any systems can boast that!!! I have tried for years to come up with a horse racing system, backing... and laying, but failed. I came up with one laying system that layed 30 on the trot, biggest price 6.0. But all it took was for a couple of bad days, and weeks of layin was wiped out. So backing is the only thing im gonna do from now on, but not with horse racing, it seems to be full of jockeys, who keep getting accused of ' not trying', if you know what i mean. So football, is the my future !!! lol... Anyway... if i was you, leave it as it is, and see what the results are. You could always add a filter to the system later. Just one question. Do you only do certain countries, cause i looked on betfair today and there are matches from all over the world tonight. cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune :welcomepaul, cheers for the feedback. One thing i try to keep constant is the spread of the bets i put on in a day. I think if you stick to one system you are doomed to really bad patches. So by running 5 systems at once i find that minimises the risk, hence if you find in those systems a good range of bets aswell, you further minimise your risk. No one ever knew a successful stock trader who just backed one company, they back around 30 to make their profits, so i work on those principles. You mention about the other world leagues and yeh i do to tend follow anything that the betfair coupon calls up, but what you will notice about the other not so well known leagues is that the odds are not tight enough, by this i mean there isnt enough being matched to show a true reflection of what the odds for that match should be. eg you can back a home team at 5.0 but you can only lay them at 12.0, so i only stick to games that are failry liquid and have thousands at least spent on them. You mention you had trouble with lays in the past, i see what you mean about horse racing, trouble with that is you can quite easily get a horse who is marked at 5 or 6 winning but it doesnt happen in football that often so lays in football can be very profitable if you stick to strict guidelines when doing them. Mine concentrates only specifically on home team odds in a certain category and the draw odds will never be more than 4 in these. This is also backed up by football data online from the past 5 seasons results proving that only around 18% of those matches finished in a draw, so i think im on to a good thing, its just that i hate leaving myself exposed on only a few matches if you see what i mean? just realised ive droaned on now for quite a while lol, so ill leave it at that :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune I know exactly what you mean about days when there isn't much on offer and getting burnt by forcing out bets you wouldn't otherwise have done. As of now, your system/selection policy seems to have served you right. These games fall into that criteria so I would say have faith. As for my thoughts I'll let the stats talk for themselves on the obscure games you have chosen. Im on Juve to beat Genoa, and I think it could well go over. Not sure about Gijon going over however. I wish you all the best and I will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sd489 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune so not to teach you how to suck eggs' date=' do you understand the concept of back and lay? and by my odds selection of 3-5. Dont want to sound patronising but need to know what you understand before i go in to detail.....[/quote'] No sorry i am quite new to betting! I used to just do the grand national! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok basically there are a few trade sites out there that are not bookies. They basically give you the chance to bet (back) or become the bookie(lay). For example, if you havent got your head round decimal odds yet, its best to start now, they read as follows... 1/4 = 1.25 1/2 = 1.5 evens = 2 10/1 = 11 The simple formula for this is (10/1)+1 = 11.0, (1/2)+1 = 1.5 Hopefully you are following me so far. The next step is to sign up to one of these trade sites, the best out there being betfair.com. Once you have done that, follow their tutorial, it will explain everything to you there about trading with them and how to back and lay. Once you have understood that concept, come back here and ill answer any questions you might have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.