dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune rihgt...so now ive run my correct scores thru this aswell, the following stats came out.. EPL This season 58.33% :wall odds for this are generally defined between 1.57 and 1.67, clearly with this % we would only be in profit if the odds were 1.71 or greater. EPL Last season 76%, now your talking odds at 1.31 with value coming out between 1.57 and 1.67, i think this would have cleared a 30% yield if i had done this last season English leagues last season 63.4%, not so good, comes out at 1.57, so borderline and not worth the risk for a crappy yield Major european leagues last season 68%, not bad, odds of 1.67, but still only be looking at around a 6% yield. so in conclusion, im going to only stick to the EPL with this system, it normally calls up around 2 bets for each of the 38 games. Looking at the current stats for this season aswell, im guessing its due a good run.... Now to look at the overs....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok hmm it appears the overs can not be worked out thru that as its based on value and not starting odds :wall so i will continue with this across all major european leagues only. the system will run each fixture thru the formula to check value, then check previous results against this to see if its worthwhile. i think i need to start on a staking plan now. Right i have a bank of 900 now after previous successes, so what im going to do is wipe all previous stats and start from scratch on each system. My home faves has a 100% record, cos generally i wait for the team to go one or 2 up and just lay them up to make tidy profits so i will just add them in from time to time. ok so with a starting bank of 900, i think 4% stake or liablility is a good start on each, meaning that for correct scores i will stake a max of 36 across the 6 scorelines and only bet on EPL on lay the draw, the laid amount should be 15 to accomodate a liability between 35 and 40 depending on the odds and bets will only be on the major european leagues. On overs i will stake 30 a time on all major european leagues only and may look to green up on 2 goals. Home faves will also stake 30 and only on man utd, barca, real and inter. So all stats and yields are wiped so i can see how good each system will be. Bets will go up later today although i dont think on these terms there is anything for tonight........ wish me luck :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune :eyes Hi, I also check it out with french ligue1 last season it also came out great but so far is not that bad and great for this season but overal there is little profit (7 Winner out of 12) 53.3% but with great odd averagely 1.93 wch give us 23% profit so far this season, so i will add French LIGUE 1 TO EPL, so therefore we have 3 pick for this week: EPL: Bolton vs Tottenham ( Tottenham,1.95 odd with bet365) French Ligue1: St' Etienne vs Bodeaux (Bodeaux, 2.00 odd) Lens vs Lyon (Lyon, 1.75) Goodluck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi, I also check it out with french ligue1 last season it also came out great but so far is not that bad and great for this season but overal there is little profit (7 Winner out of 12) 53.3% but with great odd averagely 1.93 wch give us 23% profit so far this season, so i will add French LIGUE 1 TO EPL, so therefore we have 3 pick for this week: EPL: Bolton vs Tottenham ( Tottenham,1.95 odd with bet365) French Ligue1: St' Etienne vs Bodeaux (Bodeaux, 2.00 odd) Lens vs Lyon (Lyon, 1.75) Goodluck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune law im confused by your post, to lay the draw you are effectively backing both teams to win, your quoting odds of just tottenham to win, backing them both on bet365 gives u odds of 1.28, on betfair its 1.36 if you lay the draw at 3.8. also i said in my last post ill be doing all european leagues for ltd, so am i confusing you somehow?:\:\:\:\:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi Dan, u're getting me wrong i only pick one team(away team, "favourite team) with bet365 not with Betfair each time this home odd come up wch give us 3 pick frm ligue1 and EPL 4 this week... I'm posting wt my phone dt is why i can explain better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune I back them to win (i'm not lay them) since away team have better chance than home team and less posibility 4 draw accoding 2 d odd statistic (8 out of 10) hope u get that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune oh ok law sorry you confused me as i thought you were using my system. If you think your on to something good you should start your own thread so everyone can see your progress :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune So what did u say? Check this season stastic each time these odd green up by picking away team (favourate team) only with EPL and french Ligue1 d result is not bad.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune But the ideal is 4rm ur system anytime d odd of 3.0-5.5 come up for Home team u pick away team since they have better chance( 70% with better odd) than home and there is less possibily for Draw(15%)... only EPL and Ligue1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune its a good idea law and i think you should stick wit it but if you would nt mind startin a new thread for it i would appreciate that as id like to keep this one for monitoring my systems. Im interested im your idea tho so would be pleased to hear of your progress :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul2009 Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi law, ive done a bit of researching myself and it slightly differs from yours so perhaps you can explain to me how you cam to get it. EPL this season so far..... 100 % no draws on all odds between 3-5.5 for home team average odds not to draw - 1.43(reversal of laid draw) EPL Last season 79% = 1.265 odds (42/53) average odds - 1.415 yield - 11.78% EPL Last 5 seasons 82.9% = 1.206 (194/234) average odds - 1.424 yield - 18% All english divisons last season 72.4% = 1.38 (192/265) average odds - 1.421 yield - 2.9% all top flight european divs last season(eng, sco, ita, ger, fra, spa) 77.7% = 1.287 average odds - 1.43 yield - 11.11% The average odds remains consistent, but the clear lack of knowledge in the lower divisions mars this, so its best to stick to top flight and in order to enhance the amount of games, i think im going to stick to top flight european leagues only. I will work out a staking plan later, and i think im going to run my correct scores and overs thru this aswell to see where best fits. Hello...Can u please tell me what the figures in brackets are (42/53). cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi paul yeh thats 42 wins in 53 games which is 79 per cent which is equal to odds of 1.265 which i can get at value over 1.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul2009 Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Also... Gone through my last two editions of rf outlook, and done your draw lay system. In english and scottish games only, the results were as follows: All best home odds in the rfo paper 2/1 and bigger, for the last two weeks was....27 out of 29 successful lay draws.:nana Personally, i think the foreign games are to unpredictable, and i will follow your system but only in english and scottish games. There is definately something in this system u have devised:dude... top man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune correct scores put on for Schalke 37 stake, 55 target Vitesse 35 stake, 55 target :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Also... Gone through my last two editions of rf outlook, and done your draw lay system. In english and scottish games only, the results were as follows: All best home odds in the rfo paper 2/1 and bigger, for the last two weeks was....27 out of 29 successful lay draws.:nana Personally, i think the foreign games are to unpredictable, and i will follow your system but only in english and scottish games. There is definately something in this system u have devised:dude... top man good to hear paul, there is some scope in the major foreign leagues which is why im keeping clear of anything outside of it like norway, sweden, turkey etc gl:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune correct scores put on for Schalke 37 stake, 55 target Vitesse 35 stake, 55 target :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope ok so 100% for tonight woop woop so... schalke - win vitesse - win total profit = +38 correct score total staked = 72 profit = +38 yield = 52.77%f Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune OK so ive looked a little more in to which leagues are suited to the draw and score systems. correct scores, the real benefit is in EPL and france only. lay the draw should only be backed on EPL, holland, spain and germany. france, italy and scotland did not show a decent enuf yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune bets for today home faves man utd barca inter all backed at 30 (will green up if necessary) overs Bolton @1.81 hull @2.08 barnsley @1.84 preston @1.88 watford @1.88 colchester @1.89 leeds @1.95 norwich @1.91 lay the draw bolton @3.8 bloody thing took my bet twice, so this laid at 30 hull @3.55 mgladbach @ 3.6 correct scores paris st germain 38 staked, 55 target rennes 39 staked, 55 target :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 3, 2009 Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune lay the draw should only be backed on EPL, holland, spain and germany. is this based on long term averages mate? did you see the back page of the Racing Post today? 4 draws / 66 matches in the EPL this season! don't be tempted by headlines such as these. they may be bad news for the bookies but 1x2 will even out in the medium to long term. keep it up! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hey muppet. Never fear my stats dont take this season in to account, its way too early for that. Didnt see the paper yet either. Cheers for the feed back, its appreciated :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune home faves man utd - lost barca - greened up inter - greened up profit = -20 overs Bolton @1.81 - won hull @2.08 - won barnsley @1.84 - won preston @1.88 - lost watford @1.88 - won colchester @1.89 - lost leeds @1.95 - lost norwich @1.91 - won profit = +28 lay the draw bolton @3.8 bloody thing took my bet twice, so this laid at 30 - o dear, cant believe this took mybet twice and was only one that lost, for the purpose of the system tho it will only be counted once - lost hull @3.55 - won mgladbach @ 3.6 - won profit = -10 correct scores paris st germain 38 staked, 55 target - won rennes 39 staked, 55 target - lost profit = -22 total profit for day = -24 Total profit round 2 = +14 Correct score round 2 - 3 out of 4, 75% Lay the draw round 2 - 1 out of 2, 50% Overs round 2, 13 out of 20, 65% total staked - 520 yield - 2.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok today a few changes, minimum stakes are introduced, they will be based on 2% of my current balance. home faves for the purpose of this thread is going to be dropped as its more of an in play system and something i like to do for fun which i have no stats on. bets for today Correct scores Everton, staked 15, target 22 Marseille, staked 15, target 22 Lay the draw Santander @3.55 Sevilla @3.8 laid at 6 overs arsenal @1.63 chelsea @2.16 everton @2.08 west ham @2.28 getafe @2.2 santander @1.71 valladolid @2.06 palermo @1.99 all backed at 15 :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune to anyone following my thread, green up now on the palermo game, the lay odds are at 1.21, the others have come good so its worth it to bank the profit. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune to anyone following my thread' date=' green up now on the palermo game, the lay odds are at 1.21, the others have come good so its worth it to bank the profit. :dude[/quote'] AND WHAT A DAMN GOOD IDEA THAT WAS :rollin:rollin:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune RESULTS AS FOLLOWS..... Correct scores Everton, staked 15, target 22 - WIN Marseille, staked 15, target 22 - LOSE PROFIT =-8 Lay the draw Santander @3.55 - WIN Sevilla @3.8 - WIN laid at 6 PROFIT = +12 overs arsenal @1.63 - WIN chelsea @2.16 - LOSE everton @2.08 - LOSE west ham @2.28 - WIN getafe @2.2 - WIN santander @1.71 - LOSE valladolid @2.06 - WIN palermo @1.99 - LOSE(GREENED UP THOUGH) PROFIT = +28 PROFIT FOR DAY = +32 :cow:cow:cow:cow:cow:cow Total profit round 2 = +46 Correct score round 2 - 4 out of 6, 66.67% Lay the draw round 2 - 3 out of 4, 75% Overs round 2, 17 out of 28, 60.7%(1 Greened up) total staked - 700 yield - 6.57% :dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune just the one bet for today... Lay the draw Aston Villa, laid draw at 6, liability 15 :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope also testing a tweak to my overs on the unders market today on a few matches in sweden and norway, but will reveal more as i know. Looks like there is gonna be a baron period on the systems until next week once the internationals are over, so time to work on more stuff. might have a look at an international system even, any ideas???:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune OK ideas please, heres a simple system for you using 365stats.com This is very very similar to the ratings that PaulR gives each week, in fact im not sure if he is somehow part of the site but anyway i know he publishes the ratings and lets ppl decide what they will. For those not familiar with the ratings, go to 365stats.com, then in to league tables and you will see the options for ratings. These ratings for both home and away are based on series of stats including goals scored, shot on and off target, corners etc etc and gives a rating of the teams ability of performing home and away. my system is simple... if the fixtures bring together two teams that have a rating of +- 40 of each other, than i will back the +40 team. That team must have odds of 1.5 or higher in order for this to be profitable as i would suggest this could provide a success rate of 70% or higher and would use value bets that the bookie has over estimated. to add a little twist, if the teams ratings are within +- 5 of each other, i will back the draw. Have no idea where this will go but could be fun. I dont really have a staking plan for this so will ride with it for now on minimum stakes, trial 50 games and see where it gets me. Also, from now on i will incorporate unders as well as overs on my normal systems. the filtering process will work exactly the same as the overs. Leagues that will be run with are all the major european leagues, but as i said on my last post im trialling it tonight on some nordic leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune also to add to this, the four teams i find that have the biggest points rating difference between them will have the smallest points team laid. LOL, this could be interesting... This time next year rodders......:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune what an amazing website 365stats.com is, cant believe i havent been on there before today.... found out how to backtest ratings and found that over the last 5 years the EPL has produced a consistent yield of 17% on all teams that were rated between +10 and +30 at home, so this is what im going to go with. in some seasons it was extremely profitable to back draws on all games between -10 and +10 so just for this season i think i will to see if i can obtain a decent yield, its not gonna break my bank if i dont. as for the lays, that proved ineffective due to the odds being so high so scrapping that before i started. so systems will now be correct scores on EPL and french league Lay the draw on EPL, holland, spanish, germany. (PLEASE NOTE, that thanks to 365stats.com i have seen it is more effective to lay draws on all games with odds 3.2 to 3.8 and totally disregard the home odds full stop so this is how im going to play it) Overs on all major european leagues unders on all major european leagues Home ratings on all major european leagues draw ratings on all major european leagues still stuck with what to do during the intl period tho......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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