lawalahmed Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune x= 1.56y +27 x is the value odds y is the goal difference between clubs, in this case +23 so x= 62.88 inverse that to odds = 1.59, so in this case the value of odds i have worked WBA to be is 1.59, BF are offering 1.88, so this is a backing opportunity. I will keep the backing rule in that the difference must be at least 0.2+ in order to quantify a bet. can you please explain this messenge above better? i get x(odd offer for fav) and i also get y to be (goal diff.) and also 27% to be away win ration. So how did you arrive at 1.59 because i divide sum of 1.56 and Y addition with 27= 62.88. How did get 1.56? How did calculate to arrive at 1.59. Note: When you have alot of interesting on your u sound intresting, Honestly u sound interseting....i'm waitng for response Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi law, 1.56 is derived from a website i use football-data.co.uk it combines the goal differences in to a format that eliminates what would be the need to keep a table, they basically came up with a derivative that allowed you to multiply the figure to in order to create a value %. i tweaked that slightly so you could take in to account all angles of home and away stats and the results in comparison to BF were very good. 62.88 is inversed to odds by this sum - 100/62.88 = 1.59 so if something had a 75% chance of winning, its value odds would be 100/75 = 1.33 etc etc hope that helps:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune crystal clear:unsure its the results that count:D:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogsmith Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune dannkez2407,as usual mate you have come up with another interesting idea.Im looking forward to seeing how this pans out,perhaps you will be finding value,very nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune bad night tonight results as follows Correct scores Brann - win Reggina - win Guimaraes - lose Man City - lose profit = -30 Lay the draw Halmstads - win Bray - win Strasbourg - lose Thrasivoulos - lose profit = -25 profit for day = -55 :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall yet another reason why its not a good idea to run only 2 systems, you need at least 3 and more teams to minimise risk. Profit overall = 241.38 Total stake/liability = 2439.4 Overall yield = 9.9% Correct score, 25 out of 33. - 75.8% Lay the draw, 34 out of 45. - 75.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richardvador Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hello Dan , x= 1.56y +27 - can we use this simple formula just to predict 1X2 final result as Home win - Draw score - Loose result, not for the correct score. i understand that we have to calculate x value odds. - does y goal difference between clubs, means ( Goals scored by team A + Goals scored by team B ) or what ? - when we find x value , how do we interprete the result in order to choose home win , Draw result or away win. - 1.56 is-it a fixed number coefficient for all matches or he is changing for every matchs and depends on different leagues (liga, calcio, bundesliga ...) thanks for your help :notworthy richard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi richard, ive been using it for home and away wins and recently developing it for the overs market. y goal difference on calculating home and away wins is for example man utd who have goal difference of +10 versus portsmouth who have goal difference of -10 That would make y=20 if for example the two opposing teams had differences of +7 and +5, that would make y= 2 This works the same equally if the goal differences were -1 and -3, then y would =2 27 is the % of the result you are after over a period of time, eg in the championship the away team won 27% of the time over a fixed period. if you wanted to calculate home wins you would use that %, normally in the region of 45-50 one thing to remember is you are trying to calculate the chance of an event occuring, not what is more likely to occur. Now you may think that man utd have a 60% chance of winning this weekend, whereas the bookies may think its only 50% and they will price it accordingly. the key is to find value in this so where you think the bookies have over priced a particular event. Over a period of time the value results will come in as per the statistical %, but because you had them on at over priced odds, you should in theory make money on this. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok busy night of footy tonight, lets hope lady luck starts getting me back some big wins Im back to 5 systems, the first as you know is correct scores.... CS Hacken Cork cardiff middlesborough millwall peterborough sheff utd all at target 50 lay the draw ive tweaked slightly, i found in some instances it was better value to back the home and away team (effectively laying the draw), if you do this early enough the overround reduces your liability. i also added a filter whereby if the teams fitting the criteria had a total number of goals per game that averaged in to a score draw, than i would leave them out, this wittled down 16 possible candidates down to just 5, lets hope that filter works LTD Barnsley Colchester Grays Hereford Oldham all at target 40 home faves Barcelona backed at 30 Value bets - my first run tonight of these, should be interesting West brom 1.59 @1.88 doncaster 2.09 @ 2.42 preston 1.62 @ 2.0 sheff utd 1.51 @ 1.71 exeter 2.51 @ 2.76 huddersfield 2.03 @ 2.34 dag and red 2.41 @ 2.66 crewe 2.12 @ 2.34 notts co 1.66 @ 2.06 aldershot 2.03 @ 2.66 all backed at 5 and lastly ive turned my attention back to overs, so starting my stats from scratch, this time i have looked for value in the odds of overs, i basically worked out what i believe the probability of overs occuring in a match using similar methods as to above and when i found value, i have backed them. Again in the long run this should generate profit... Overs round 2 Barnsley @1.86 Palace @2.08 Middlesborough @2.02 Peterborough @1.96 Sheff utd @1.88 watford @1.96 colchester @2 Norwich @1.79 all backed at 5, would have put more down but have not had time. Looking at liability at over 500 for all these tonight, should be interesting.........:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune crazy night as always....... CS Hacken - win Cork - win cardiff - win middlesborough - lose millwall - win peterborough - lose sheff utd - lose profit = -24 LTD Barnsley - win Colchester - win Grays - win Hereford - win Oldham - win profit = +50 home faves Barcelona backed at 30, profit = +5 Value bets - West brom 1.59 @1.88 - lose doncaster 2.09 @ 2.42 - lose preston 1.62 @ 2.0 - lose sheff utd 1.51 @ 1.71 - lose exeter 2.51 @ 2.76 - lose huddersfield 2.03 @ 2.34 - lose dag and red 2.41 @ 2.66 - lose crewe 2.12 @ 2.34 - lose notts co 1.66 @ 2.06 - win aldershot 2.03 @ 2.66 - lose profit = -40 Overs round 2 Barnsley @1.86 - win Palace @2.08 - lose Middlesborough @2.02 - lose Peterborough @1.96 - win Sheff utd @1.88 - win watford @1.96 - win colchester @2 - win Norwich @1.79 - win profit = +17.25 profit for day = +8.25:cow needless to say i will be dropping the values system after being :spank very annoying to think my profit would have been around 60 if i hadnt adopted the system, although it seemed to work on overs round two, we shall see..... Profit overall = 249.63 Total stake/liability = 3108.4 Overall yield = 8% Correct score, 29 out of 40. - 72.5% Lay the draw, 39 out of 50. - 78% overs round two, 6 out of 8 - 75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footballgenius Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune The new Lay to Draw system with the filter in it seems to maybe work too? can you explain a bit further on this extra filter?? Keep up the good work!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune The new Lay to Draw system with the filter in it seems to maybe work too? can you explain a bit further on this extra filter?? Keep up the good work!! Hi FG, yeh it does, although that could be a one off, time will tell. the system is 75% proof at the mo, i was hoping this filter could send it in to the 80's. Basically i take the average home and away score of the respective teams for that season and average them to produce an average score for both teams, if that results in a score draw, i dont lay it. also, if either team has drawn their last couple of games, i will also step away as there could be a run developing. But as is the filter takes out teams so easily that i cant actually find one for tonight. So tonights bets will be Overs round two B Munich Man utd nottm forest real madrid home faves man utd real madrid Correct score Man utd target 50, staked 24 now cos i was so sure that there will be 3 goals or more in this match i have decided to try something risky and back only 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and unquoted, worth a go i think if my overs system is crying out for it to be overs. Newcastle, normal scores, target 50, staked 33 crossing my fingers for these :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ejackson Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hallo dannkez. As you can see, my first post here. It's been awile since my last post in english, so please read with caution:) The fact is im very new in sportsbeting. Besides a few small bets just for fun i didn't bet never before in my life. I invested all day yesterday discovering the bussiness of sporsbeting - and it's quite confusing:) I find this page as one of the best as far as information on betting is concerned. And a lot of helping tip also. Your thread was brought to my attention. First of - keep up the good work. I found some interesting information on this thread and some information on JJ's thread. I'm very interested in over/under bets. I think i'll start with them - first testing, then we'll see. I've got some statistical knowledge (from collage) so i think this system if worth trying out. Could you give me some quick pointer about over/under bets??? I'll first write what is my simplified plan, than you can jump in with some helpers. It's obvious that this system is based on previous scoring record of home and away team. So, first i add the goals for and against for home team, and the same for away team and devide that by 2. For over bets it should come out at around 3,5, for under bets around 2. Than i'll take Poisson function to determine the "probability" of over/under event to occur. Than i'll find a value bet. So, this is what i learned yesterday. Today, with your help, i would like to take a step forward, so here a the questions: 1. What other data are you using for your under/over bets 2. Do you add any other filters. If so, can you describe? 3. Whick leagues do you bet on - is it important? 4. How many games is enaugh for scoring average calculation - 5,6? This is all for now. I hope you're not mad for stealing your thread. If it's a problem i 'll delet this post, but as far as i could read in this thread you are quite a helping person:) Cheers and thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hey welcome to the world of sports betting, its all good fun. I like your filters so far although i probably would nt aim as high as 3.5, maybe 3 would be ok. The only other filter i add is that out of the combined last 3 matches of each team, in other words 6 in all, 4 of them must have finished over. I concentrate on the main leagues in europe as their info is readily available. 6 games of previous results is enough to do an average. Hope this helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hey welcome to the world of sports betting, its all good fun. I like your filters so far although i probably would nt aim as high as 3.5, maybe 3 would be ok. The only other filter i add is that out of the combined last 3 matches of each team, in other words 6 in all, 4 of them must have finished over. I concentrate on the main leagues in europe as their info is readily available. 6 games of previous results is enough to do an average. Hope this helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ejackson Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Thanks for your feedback. I'll try this sistem in soccer and hockey. What's up with JJ's thread - do you have any info? Also, how come that you quit the under system? Probably bad hit rate? One more question - that other filter you mentioned - do you take last 3 home and last 3 away games, or just last 3 (6) overal. Because today you bet on over nothingham-scunthorpe: they are 2/6 over. Much appreciated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune guys if any of u are following my posts, green up now on the man utd game, its too risky;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Thanks for your feedback. I'll try this sistem in soccer and hockey. What's up with JJ's thread - do you have any info? Also, how come that you quit the under system? Probably bad hit rate? One more question - that other filter you mentioned - do you take last 3 home and last 3 away games, or just last 3 (6) overal. Because today you bet on over nothingham-scunthorpe: they are 2/6 over. Much appreciated sorry i dont know anything about jj's thread. i never did an unders system, i quit my evens system. on my filter i take last 3 overall of home team playing and last 3 overall of away team playing and look for overs out of those 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune so results tonight.... Overs round two B Munich - lose Man utd - win nottm forest - lose real madrid - win profit = -8 home faves man utd - win real madrid - win profit = +16 Correct score Man utd - win Newcastle - win profit = +43 profit for day = +51 :cow:cow:cow:cow at half time its fair to say i was bricking it when all those games in the champs league were 0-0 and newcastle were 0-1. looks like tho there might be some inches in lookin at the overs stats when backing correct scores and backing the scores accordingly, i think it would have to be a game crying out to be overs tho like the man utd one tonight Profit overall = 300.63 :cheers:cheers:beer Total stake/liability = 3265.4 Overall yield = 9.2% Correct score, 31 out of 42. - 73.8% Lay the draw, 39 out of 50. - 78% overs round two, 8 out of 12 - 67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok, different types of games tonight, europa league should be interesting. after chewing thru me nails at half time last night and ending up with a profit, im going to put myself through it tonight again LOL matches for tonight are.... CS PSV Toulouse Twente W Bremen Celtic Sporting Lisbon Valencia All at target 55 LTD AEK Levski Red Bull Anderlecht Ventspils Slavia Prague All laid at 15 :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune no overs ?:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune not tonight sidders, not enuf data to back any up. CS PSV - win Toulouse - lose Twente - lose W Bremen - win Celtic - win Sporting Lisbon - win Valencia - lose profit = -25 LTD AEK - win Levski - win Red Bull - win Anderlecht - lose Ventspils - lose Slavia Prague - win profit = -20 profit for day = -45 :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Profit overall = 255.63 Total stake/liability = 3715.4 Overall yield = 6.9% Correct score, 35 out of 49. - 71.4% Lay the draw, 43 out of 56. - 76.8% overs round two, 8 out of 12 - 67% so after 50 or so games it seems im getting around odds of 1.57 on correct score system that requires 1.4 if 71.4% is a true representative and 1.375 on lay the draw when the odds are a little over 1.3 so guys....is this system worth sticking with????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune worth it i say,but euro cup games can be unpredictable , more so than leagues imo...crack on with the league stuff , maybe drop stakes whilst you tweek things :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune worth it i say' date='but euro cup games can be unpredictable , more so than leagues imo...crack on with the league stuff , maybe drop stakes whilst you tweek things :ok[/quote'] i think youre right sidders, might start dropping the stakes and only concentrate on league stuff. i can also apply further filters when its in the league. im also working on a 1x2 system that will also predict unders/overs, its stayin under wraps whilst im workin on it tho, hope to have some predictions for the epl this weekend. i value ppls opinion on my work so far, can anyone suggest improvement mechanisms or see further ways forward, would be appreciated...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hello Dan, honestly i learn alot 4rm ur post but yet i dont think this can work out in a long run becos off d low odd, i think u can still check dis system from diff. Pespective wch i'm doing now e.g apply LTD rule 2 premirship team( with home odd above 3.0-5.5) by picking favourite odd every week (2008/2009 season we give 80% winner with average odd of 1.70). So what did u think about this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Sorry, 2009/2010 Premirship is 80% winner (8 out of 10) With average odd of 2.0, while 2008/2009 Premirship is 60% winner(31 out of 51) with average odd of 1.70. Note: only 4 English Premirship! So Dan what do you think about this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Yes! We have one match under d system this week. Bolton vs Tottenham, selection for dis week Tottenham (1.90 odd)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Sorry, 2009/2010 Premirship is 80% winner (8 out of 10) With average odd of 2.0, while 2008/2009 Premirship is 60% winner(31 out of 51) with average odd of 1.70. Note: only 4 English Premirship! So Dan what do you think about this? Hi im interested as to what you mean by favourite odds of the week? And why this only pulls up 51 selections across a season? 60 per cent is odds of 1.667 so obtainin them at an average of 1.7 is only goin to make a small profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi Dan, *I mean anytime this odd come up(where home team odd range btw 3.0 - 5.99) then we pick d favourite team of the match( Away team) *Odd of this range come up 51 times last season( i mean English Premirship 2008/2009) *Statistic so far for this season is great with good odd then we follow up by monitoring d away team form and past trend btw d team then we can have better profit this season.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi law, ive done a bit of researching myself and it slightly differs from yours so perhaps you can explain to me how you cam to get it. EPL this season so far..... 100 % no draws on all odds between 3-5.5 for home team average odds not to draw - 1.43(reversal of laid draw) EPL Last season 79% = 1.265 odds (42/53) average odds - 1.415 yield - 11.78% EPL Last 5 seasons 82.9% = 1.206 (194/234) average odds - 1.424 yield - 18% All english divisons last season 72.4% = 1.38 (192/265) average odds - 1.421 yield - 2.9% all top flight european divs last season(eng, sco, ita, ger, fra, spa) 77.7% = 1.287 average odds - 1.43 yield - 11.11% The average odds remains consistent, but the clear lack of knowledge in the lower divisions mars this, so its best to stick to top flight and in order to enhance the amount of games, i think im going to stick to top flight european leagues only. I will work out a staking plan later, and i think im going to run my correct scores and overs thru this aswell to see where best fits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi Dan, I wish i chat wt u right now but unfurtunate i'm posting 4rm my Phone, so see u Later.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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