lawalahmed Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi Dan? What up i'm glad 2 be infront of my system now, hope i didn't alot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune i did'nt missed alot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi Dan? What up i'm glad 2 be infront of my system now, hope i didn't alot! hi law, how are you? how did you get on over the weekend with your system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune well, as they say best bet always be the missing bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok...i reckon im on to something here. i checked odds of home games between 1.0-1.5 to see yield returns in the EPL last year, amazingly you would have made a profit on backing draws, so i took this further....i then looked at 365's ratings against those games and amazingly the majority were all 30 or under, so in conclusion to look for draws i now think i need to look for games that are priced 1.0 - 1.5 and have a rating 30 or less (most games are rated in excess of 40) i say again, this time next year rodders :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune imaging before the weekend, in EPL they had 66 games only 4 draw out of it but during the weekend out of 9 games they had 4 draws including Tottenham match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune sorry i dont get ur last mssg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune imaging before the weekend' date=' in EPL they had 66 games only 4 draw out of it but during the weekend out of 9 games they had 4 draws including Tottenham match[/quote'] yep we all should have seen that coming, i wish id backed draws on all EPL at the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok...i reckon im on to something here. i checked odds of home games between 1.0-1.5 to see yield returns in the EPL last year, amazingly you would have made a profit on backing draws, so i took this further....i then looked at 365's ratings against those games and amazingly the majority were all 30 or under, so in conclusion to look for draws i now think i need to look for games that are priced 1.0 - 1.5 and have a rating 30 or less (most games are rated in excess of 40) i say again, this time next year rodders :rollin further research for this shows only english leagues provide the yield, so will need to bear that in mind..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok...i reckon im on to something here. i checked odds of home games between 1.0-1.5 to see yield returns in the EPL last year, amazingly you would have made a profit on backing draws, so i took this further....i then looked at 365's ratings against those games and amazingly the majority were all 30 or under, so in conclusion to look for draws i now think i need to look for games that are priced 1.0 - 1.5 and have a rating 30 or less (most games are rated in excess of 40) i say again, this time next year rodders :rollin Hello Dan, sorry i dont get this mmsg! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune further research for this shows only english leagues provide the yield' date=' so will need to bear that in mind.....[/quote'] ok now im finding them all today........ seria A last season odds on draws between 5.0-6.0 a massive 46% yield when you backed the home team, due to the fact the away team was favourite, normally @ 1.5-2.0, meaning home team odds were around 3-3.5. checked previous seasons and yield profit was still evident. This season out of the three games that qualified, two were home wins so maybe it will continue the trend this season. I think im gonna call this part of the system the ITALIAN JOB :rollin Gonna have to start calling this thread the seven systems to fortune at this rate :rollin:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune IN AVOIDANCE OF CONFUSION.....and the fact i have been rambling on all day.. My systems in summary Correct scores - Dutch 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 and unquoted on EPL and French ligue 1 Lay the draw - Lay draws on odds of 3.2-3.8 on EPL, Primera, Bundesliga and Erdiversie Overs - Find value on overs by checking previous results on all major european leagues, running then through the formula and filtering through the ratings on 365stats. Unders - Find value on unders by checking previous results on all major european leagues, running then through the formula and filtering through the ratings on 365stats. Home ratings - check 365stats for ratings on games between +10 and +30 and back home team on all major european leagues Draw ratings - check 365stats for ratings on games with odds of home team @ 1.0-1.5 and back draw when rating is +30 or less. The italian job - back home team on all games in serie A when draw odds are between 5.0-6.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune have a break dan:rollin :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune have a break dan:rollin :ok :D i was just finding them left, right and centre. ok...late entry on my system tonight, one for the unders. villa v man city, now everyone is raving that there will be lots of goals but the form says otherwise, villa at home are poor in the scoring stakes and city arent exactly on fire away, average goals a game is 2 and 365stats have villa at 25 and city at 32 yet the bookies have the odds at 2.14, gotta be worth it. :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune :clapgood start with the unders dan:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune :D i was just finding them left, right and centre. ok...late entry on my system tonight, one for the unders. villa v man city, now everyone is raving that there will be lots of goals but the form says otherwise, villa at home are poor in the scoring stakes and city arent exactly on fire away, average goals a game is 2 and 365stats have villa at 25 and city at 32 yet the bookies have the odds at 2.14, gotta be worth it. :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope :rollini love it when im right :dude shame i laid the draw aswell tho lol. PROFIT FOR DAY = +2.7 :cow:cow:cow:cow:cow:cow Total profit round two = +48.7 Correct score round two - 4 out of 6, 66.67% Lay the draw round two - 3 out of 5, 60% Overs round two - 17 out of 28, 60.7% Unders - 1 out of 1, 100% total staked - 730 yield - 6.67% :dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune :clapgood start with the unders dan:clap yeh thot i was going crazy wen i saw the stats and what the bookies were offering, had to be my first value contender :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok so i think im on to two more systems, these ones are for inplay games in any league and any comp. the reason ive gone out my way to find these is because of these tedious breaks we have during international games and its doin my head in :wall so these two systems explained... number 1, laying 0-0's, fuelled by a glory hunt i was reading on here by WIW i looked at the correlation between 0-0's and home match odds. I found that virtually no 0-0s resulted when the away team had odds of between 1.0 and 1.99, so im going to add this one on minimum stakes. The only selection criteria is that betfair must offers odds of 12 or below for the lay otherwise the liability is too high...should be interesting this one. number 2, HT/FT 2X, odds for an away lead at half time resulting in a draw are pretty good. The most common home odds that results these is between 2.0 and 2.5. So this will be the selection criteria, also one extra filter will be the odds must be 12.5 or over....again this could be fun. :D So to summarise again, my 9 systems are Correct scores - Dutch 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 and unquoted on EPL and French ligue 1 Lay the draw - Lay draws on odds of 3.2-3.8 on EPL, Primera, Bundesliga and Erdiversie Overs - Find value on overs by checking previous results on all major european leagues, running then through the formula and filtering through the ratings on 365stats. Unders - Find value on unders by checking previous results on all major european leagues, running then through the formula and filtering through the ratings on 365stats. Home ratings - check 365stats for ratings on games between +10 and +30 and back home team on all major european leagues Draw ratings - check 365stats for ratings on games with odds of home team @ 1.0-1.5 and back draw when rating is +30 or less. The italian job - back home team on all games in serie A when draw odds are between 5.0-6.0 Lay 0-0 - all games that have away odds between 1.0-1.99 and lay odds are 12 or under. HT/FT X2 - all games that have home odds between 2.0 and 2.5 and odds are 12.5 or over. No lay 0-0's today but HT/FT X2 are as follows Venezuela U20 @ 16.0 staked £2 Rec de Huelva @ 19.5 staked £2 :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hello Dan, Pls, ur mssg on HT/FT X2 is not clear, Did u mean we are going to wait for away lead then back draw or back away team to Win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hello Dan, Pls, ur mssg on HT/FT X2 is not clear, Did u mean we are going to wait for away lead then back draw or back away team to Win? hi law, how you been? apologies if i wasnt clear. im backing the outcome that at half time the away team will be winning, but by full time it will end in a draw. its one bet done before the kick off and normally only on in-play markets if you are using betfair. hope that makes sense ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune so, when exactly are we get on-board? Do we wait for away lead then the odd for away team for HT/FT should be 12.5 or above because of high liabilty, or do we make the the bet before in-play, sorry is not clear to me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune so, when exactly are we get on-board? Do we wait for away lead then the odd for away team for HT/FT should be 12.5 or above because of high liabilty, or do we make the the bet before in-play, sorry is not clear yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi law, how you been? apologies if i wasnt clear. im backing the outcome that at half time the away team will be winning, but by full time it will end in a draw. its one bet done before the kick off and normally only on in-play markets if you are using betfair. hope that makes sense ;) Sorry, i finnaly get the mssg. but dont you consider this a bit risk:unsure:unsure! Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune When we have a close match with no clear favorite the home team rarely leads at half time and at full time. Odds for lay 1/1 are around 5. Do you have any stats about this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune so' date=' when exactly are we get on-board? Do we wait for away lead then the odd for away team for HT/FT should be 12.5 or above because of high liabilty, or do we make the the bet before in-play, sorry is not clear yet![/quote'] hi law we are probably lost in translation here... right, before the match, visit the in play market on betfair and there will be an option to bet on half time/full time. This markets allows you to back (before the game) the way match will be going at half time and at full time. ie, away win at half time, but a draw by full time eg. Man utd v arsenal, half time score is 0-1 by full time is 1-1, this would be a win. The bet is placed BEFORE the kick off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Sorry' date=' i finnaly get the mssg. but dont you consider this a bit risk:unsure:unsure! Thanks[/quote'] every bet is a risk and this will have longer losing streaks than my other systems, but when it comes in the rewards are good :beer:beer:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune When we have a close match with no clear favorite the home team rarely leads at half time and at full time. Odds for lay 1/1 are around 5. Do you have any stats about this? hi cav, can you be a bit more specific? are you talking about teams that have home odds of say 2.2 and similar away? when you mean 1/1, are you referring to score? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi dan, ht/ft markets DONT go in play on betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Maybe Bet365! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi dan' date=' ht/ft markets DONT go in play on betfair.[/quote'] hi sidders, im really not bein clear today am i ? :D i mean i check the in play daily coupon as these are the matches that only ever seem to give you the option of betting ht/ft. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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