JackJarvis Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Thinking that Corinthians, Nautico & Sao Paulo all look too short based on the stats. Corinthians in mid table sharing same goal difference as Sport Recife and only other matchup in serie at this ground ended 1-2 to Sport. Only current/home away form and last cup match a slight put off at the moment but surely 1.5-1.6 is stupidly short:unsure Nautico propping up the table with only a solid home record keeping them off the bottom playing Vitoria a team who started poorly on the road but have picked up in last 3 games with 1 draw and 2 wins. Vitoria in touch at the top of the table and also still have that 6-2 home spanking of Santos fresh in their heads. Again surely Nautico should be closer to around 3.00 rather than the 2.4-2.5 on offer. Sao Paulo who are struggling to win at home right now, yet to win on the road, and languishing in the bottom half of the table away to Mineiro who sit top and unbeaten at home. Sao Paulo only 1 win in 5 from this fixture h2h although that was a 0-5 spanking which has skewed the f/a figures somewhat. Surely price should be between 4.00 & 5.00 or similar not 3.2-3.5:unsure Anyone care to make sense of all this by telling me the opposing teams all have swine flu or have the oddsmakers just fallen asleep on the job:lol :unsure..........? I couldn't agree more mate, I am looking to lay Nautico for a serious amount at that price. They have lost their last 7 games, I just don't understand the prices at all. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Well win, lose or draw those prices all seem nuts so I've staked on all 3 lays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Clube Náutico Capibaribe (0)AH @1,74 (betCHRONICLE) - 7/10 Nautico with new manager Geninhowill host EC Vitoria who are in big problems with squad. They will miss several key players for the match ahead: 22 years old defender Apodi (8 hames - 2 goals) suspended, two key midfielders will not be in the team - 21 years old Uelliton (9 games, 1 goals) and 29 years old Vanderson ( games) both suspended. Also attacker Adriano (8 matches - one goal) might not be in firts line-up. Odds are dropping on home win so my bet will be this asian line, and odds are very nice for me. On the other hand, Nautico manager have first contact with players and they trained well over the past few days, and combined some new tacktics. He will make some changes in the team with Johnny (23 year old midfielder) and 28 years old attacker Marcio Barros (4 games and one goal) in the first line-up. With these situation at EC Vitoria I see value betting on home side. Good luck and cheers... Head to head: 01-11-08 Serie A Náutico 1 - 0 Vitória 24-07-08 Serie A Vitória 2 - 0 Náutico 02-07-05 Serie B Vitória 2 - 2 Náutico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nori Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Bagzi, do u have any team news for Atletico MG pls, to me it looks like a home win and the odds are quite good ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Bagzi' date=' do u have any team news for Atletico MG pls, to me it looks like a home win and the odds are quite good ...[/quote'] Atletico MG will be very motivated for this ˝classic˝ game between these two clubs. Four former Sao Paolo players will be in Atletico MG squad for tonight´s match and that will give hosts more confidence so I expect great performance from them against theirs old club. Former Sao Paolo players who will play tonight for Atletico MG are Júnior, Alex Bruno, Éder Luis and Diego Tardelli. Atletico MG manager Celso Roth will not be able to count on key midfielder 24 years old Renan who played 10 matches so far and was great in the field. One more missing player is again midfielder Marcio Arajuo (10 games - 2 goals) and that is not very good news for hosts. Good news is back of great Carlos Alberto in the team... I am thinking about asian line Atletico MG (0) at @1,78 (bet365) - 5/10 Head to head: 04-09-08 Serie A Atlético Mineiro 1 - 1 São Paulo 07-06-08 Serie A São Paulo 5 - 1 Atlético Mineiro 06-09-07 Serie A Atlético Mineiro 0 - 0 São Paulo 10-06-07 Serie A São Paulo 0 - 1 Atlético Mineiro 02-11-05 Serie A São Paulo 2 - 2 Atlético Mineiro 27-07-05 Serie A Atlético Mineiro 0 - 0 São Paulo 17-10-04 Serie A Atlético Mineiro 0 - 5 São Paulo 06-07-04 Serie A São Paulo 1 - 0 Atlético Mineiro 21-09-03 Serie A São Paulo 2 - 2 Atlético Mineiro 11-05-03 Serie A Atlético Mineiro 2 - 2 São Paulo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nori Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Atletico MG will be very motivated for this ˝classic˝ game between these two clubs. Four former Sao Paolo players will be in Atletico MG squad for tonight´s match and that will give hosts more confidence so I expect great performance from them against theirs old club. Former Sao Paolo players who will play tonight for Atletico MG are Júnior, Alex Bruno, Éder Luis and Diego Tardelli. Atletico MG manager Celso Roth will not be able to count on key midfielder 24 years old Renan who played 10 matches so far and was great in the field. One more missing player is again midfielder Marcio Arajuo (10 games - 2 goals) and that is not very good news for hosts. Good news is back of great Carlos Alberto in the team... I am thinking about asian line Atletico MG (0) at @1,78 (bet365) - 5/10 Head to head: 04-09-08Serie AAtlético Mineiro 1 - 1 São Paulo 07-06-08Serie ASão Paulo 5 - 1 Atlético Mineiro 06-09-07Serie AAtlético Mineiro 0 - 0 São Paulo 10-06-07Serie ASão Paulo 0 - 1 Atlético Mineiro 02-11-05Serie ASão Paulo 2 - 2 Atlético Mineiro 27-07-05Serie AAtlético Mineiro 0 - 0 São Paulo 17-10-04Serie AAtlético Mineiro 0 - 5 São Paulo 06-07-04Serie ASão Paulo 1 - 0 Atlético Mineiro 21-09-03Serie ASão Paulo 2 - 2 Atlético Mineiro 11-05-03Serie AAtlético Mineiro 2 - 2 São Paulo thanks a lot for your great info bagzi....:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junkyardog Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) "Tricolor Paulista" have the defenders Andre Dias and Renato Silva suspended. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felippe_Gonçalves Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Corinthians x Sport Recife Pick: AH Corinthians -1 # @2.03 SBObet # 9/10 In my opinion, Corinthians is the best team of Brazil today. In the last game, the team left the Olympic Stadium defeated by 3x0 and now only the victory interested in the return to Pacaembu. The coach Mano Menezes will can't count with some main players as the defender Williams that is injured, the defensive midfielder Elias and the right lateral Alessandro who are suspended. Of these three, I think that the only player that will really missing is Elias, because almost the entire game done by Corinthians is done by the left with Andre Santos, being the right lateral Alessandro little used offensively, and defensively, his replacement Diogo is not bad in my opinion. The defensive system with Chicão will be more safer than in the last round and I think that the absence of Williams will not be very serious. The Sport will not have for this game the attacker Ciro, who is in the Brazil under-20 Squad, a quality player, and the offensive sector of the team will be more weak. Another abscense will be the midfielder Hamilton who is sick. The forward Weldon is awaiting the outcome of a justice process to determine whether or not to enter the field. Corinthians is one of the candidates for the title, having been heavily defeated in the last round by 3x0, but having played very well until now in this season, I believe in victory in this game too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) SportFootball (S.America) EventAtletico MG vs Sao Paulo SelectionSao Paulo (Lay) Strength10/10 Date16/07/2009 Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 3.50 (Lay) ReasoningI don't really like laying at these prices but I think this is a very safe lay looking at the stats. Atletico should be odds on for this match imo and Sao Paulo have been overrated here. Atletico are unbeaten in their last 16 home games which is a magnificent record. In their last 6 competitive matches on the road, Sao Paulo have lost 4 and drawn 2. Atletico won 3-0 away at Cruzeiro at the weekend and come into this game in terrific form. The only worry is their recent poor record against Sao Paulo but they are clearly the form team coming into this game and should take all the beating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto_Mike Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) I'm backing Atletico based on what I see on the pitch rather than stats. Most of you are forgetting the fact that stats can only show you so much. A lot of these big clubs are suffering partially due to the fact a lot of the players on the squad are either leaving for Europe, are not getting paid, or were on international duty. Also careful with Nautico, there is a lot of internal strife within the board who are being greedy mofos. They are stealing a lot of the clubs assets instead of investing on the club to buy players. Essentially size does matter for Nautico who physically are one of the smaller teams out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Starting up my public fade...1-3 in the Europa wasn't the way I wanted to start. Anyway, sticking to best-priced side and total: Soccer - Corinthians/Sport Recife - total Under 2½ (+120) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [pending] Soccer - Sao Paulo - spread pk (+134) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [pending] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) I'm backing Atletico based on what I see on the pitch rather than stats. Most of you are forgetting the fact that stats can only show you so much. A lot of these big clubs are suffering partially due to the fact a lot of the players on the squad are either leaving for Europe, are not getting paid, or were on international duty. Also careful with Nautico, there is a lot of internal strife within the board who are being greedy mofos. They are stealing a lot of the clubs assets instead of investing on the club to buy players. Essentially size does matter for Nautico who physically are one of the smaller teams out there. Totaly agree about Atletico MG, but with Nautico I will be carefull, but not as you, I must go with this asian line mate (0)...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto_Mike Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Starting up my public fade...1-3 in the Europa wasn't the way I wanted to start. Anyway, sticking to best-priced side and total: Soccer - Corinthians/Sport Recife - total Under 2½ (+120) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [pending] Soccer - Sao Paulo - spread pk (+134) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [pending] Hmmm i don't get it when you were in French Ligue 2, you were "Fading" plays that actually made more sense than Sao Paulo pick. So you're back a team that is in a mess, and has not won a road game in god knows how long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Hmmm i don't get it when you were in French Ligue 2, you were "Fading" plays that actually made more sense than Sao Paulo pick. So you're back a team that is in a mess, and has not won a road game in god knows how long. From that point of view I am with you T-Mike... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Sport Club do Recife +1AH @1,94 (Ladbrokes) - 10/10 Corinthians manager Mano Menezes will not be able to count on defender William, and two main midfielders: Alessandro and Elias. On the other side, Sport Club do Recife will miss their best player who sigh for Genova (5 matches, 2 goals). From my point of view this asian line is worth try.Highs stakes my mates :-) Good luck and cheers... Head to head: 12-06-08 Copa do Brasil Sport Recife 2 - 0 Corinthians 05-06-08 Copa do Brasil Corinthians 3 - 1 Sport Recife 29-09-07 Serie A Corinthians 1 - 2 Sport Recife 04-07-07 Serie A Sport Recife 2 - 1 Corinthians 19-08-01 Serie A Sport Recife 2 - 1 Corinthians 25-10-00 Serie A Sport Recife 3 - 1 Corinthians 25-09-99 Serie A Sport Recife 0 - 0 Corinthians 12-09-98 Serie A Sport Recife 0 - 2 Corinthians Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Wilson sign for Genova, I forgot to put his name... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Starting up my public fade...1-3 in the Europa wasn't the way I wanted to start. Anyway, sticking to best-priced side and total: Soccer - Corinthians/Sport Recife - total Under 2½ (+120) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [pending] Soccer - Sao Paulo - spread pk (+134) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [pending] Hi, ATT, Hope you are doing well here. Didn't see much of Brasil recently, all I remember is Sao Paolo starting really slow 2 seasons and then picking up big time, remind me of Stuttgart somehow. I like your pick but I would rather go for the Over here. Do not like the Over odds for Corinthians, as well as the HW, no go for Unders with me. Will also pair Nautico and Red Bulls with an Over-double, for the fun. Good luck this season :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) For me.. personally.. I have never come across a nation that deals this many yellow/red cards :) Spain Primera? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Spain Primera? maybe ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newestpunter Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) 5 minutes gone and athletico 1 goal up boom boom boom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) 5 minutes gone and athletico 1 goal up boom boom boom yep, good start...:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Diego Tardelli scored after only two minutes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) I will go with bet in play: Atlético Mineiro v São Paulo FC Correct Score 1:0 at @11 (paddypower) - 2/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) at 12 minutes score is 1:0... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slipkid Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) 31 minutes....still...1:0...:D Gowannn son! Just the hour left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) still, 50 minutes to go mate... he he :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) If anyone wants the live feed for the Atletico match let me know and I will post it. Ive been watching the game and Atletico have been dominating, they should be 2 or 3 in front to be honest. Sao Paulo have not threatened the Atletico goal yet, fingers crossed it stays that way in the 2nd half. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Hmmm i don't get it when you were in French Ligue 2, you were "Fading" plays that actually made more sense than Sao Paulo pick. So you're back a team that is in a mess, and has not won a road game in god knows how long. One of the things I don't like about this site is there are a lot of people who forget that the point is to share information...it is not some contest between you and me. It's all of us against the bookies, right? Well, I have information to share. It is not the same as the information you have to share. You know which team is a mess, which one hasn't lost in how many games. All very much appreciated, thank you. Here's what I have to share: Although my first day back was very poor (these two picks went about as bad as two picks ever have been, and my Europa League picks were barely better), I have been tracking leagues all over the world for years now...and what I have found is that, on the whole, the worst-looking bet on the board is the best bet. I have looked at sides and at totals, and more often than not, if you can find the best-paying dog in a league each week, that is your best bet. I have found certain circumstances that are particularly good...a home team that is either a -1 handicap at 2.15 or better or at least 2.2 to win, for example. These are teams that people have doubts about (players missing, motivation suspect) even though on paper they're a better team. Overs in lower leagues at plus-money are very good, as goals scored or not scored are essentially random events. The best-priced under 2 in Japan is for some reason a really good bet. I started noticing these sorts of patterns...and it's usually when there's one clear dog in a league. The reason it is successful is that the lines get out of whack, because people over-value certain pieces of information. A team is missing a key offensive player, and so people assume the team can't attack. A team is 'inexperienced,' and so can't succeed in European championships. It is hot outside, so neither team will score. These narratives take on a mind of their own sometimes...and when I see all the money flowing in one direction, I go the other way if the offer is good enough. I pick games based only on the movement of the line. I can't tell you how often -- as with Aalborg today -- I have avoided a bet because of something I read by all these "smart" bettors. When Aalborg was 3.5 at a 1.5-goal handicap, I should have jumped on their opponents, but didn't...0-0 FT, and an easy public-fade win. There are many of these out there. It has nothing to do with who's playing, or who's playing well. None of my picks will "make sense." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Clube Náutico Capibaribe (0)AH @1,74 (betCHRONICLE) - 7/10 (money back) :DAtletico MG (0) at @1,78 (bet365) - 5/10 :ok Sport Club do Recife +1AH @1,94 (Ladbrokes) - 10/10 (m oney back) :D Atlético Mineiro v São Paulo FC Correct Score 1:0 at @11 (paddypower) - 2/10:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto_Mike Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) One of the things I don't like about this site is there are a lot of people who forget that the point is to share information...it is not some contest between you and me. It's all of us against the bookies, right? Well, I have information to share. It is not the same as the information you have to share. You know which team is a mess, which one hasn't lost in how many games. All very much appreciated, thank you. Here's what I have to share: Although my first day back was very poor (these two picks went about as bad as two picks ever have been, and my Europa League picks were barely better), I have been tracking leagues all over the world for years now...and what I have found is that, on the whole, the worst-looking bet on the board is the best bet. I have looked at sides and at totals, and more often than not, if you can find the best-paying dog in a league each week, that is your best bet. I have found certain circumstances that are particularly good...a home team that is either a -1 handicap at 2.15 or better or at least 2.2 to win, for example. These are teams that people have doubts about (players missing, motivation suspect) even though on paper they're a better team. Overs in lower leagues at plus-money are very good, as goals scored or not scored are essentially random events. The best-priced under 2 in Japan is for some reason a really good bet. I started noticing these sorts of patterns...and it's usually when there's one clear dog in a league. The reason it is successful is that the lines get out of whack, because people over-value certain pieces of information. A team is missing a key offensive player, and so people assume the team can't attack. A team is 'inexperienced,' and so can't succeed in European championships. It is hot outside, so neither team will score. These narratives take on a mind of their own sometimes...and when I see all the money flowing in one direction, I go the other way if the offer is good enough. I pick games based only on the movement of the line. I can't tell you how often -- as with Aalborg today -- I have avoided a bet because of something I read by all these "smart" bettors. When Aalborg was 3.5 at a 1.5-goal handicap, I should have jumped on their opponents, but didn't...0-0 FT, and an easy public-fade win. There are many of these out there. It has nothing to do with who's playing, or who's playing well. None of my picks will "make sense." Bit of a contradiction there mate, this is the first post you actually made a valid point and shared your reason. You say a lot of people don't share info, well aren't your post just based on picks that's it? Nevertheless, do what you want but since this is a "discussion forum" you, myself and any other post have a right to ask why a person would make a play like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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