Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july )

[Bagzi]

Wednesday 15 July 2009	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Coritiba FC v Grêmio FBPA (23:30 BST)	2.4	3.4	2.75	107.44 %
	Goiás EC v Avaí FC (23:30 BST)	1.53	3.7	6.5	107.63 %
	Thursday 16 July 2009	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	EC Santo André v Atlético Paranaense (01:00 BST)	2	3.4	3.5	107.98 %
	Santos FC v Grêmio Barueri (01:00 BST)	1.66	3.5	4.75	109.62 %
	Flamengo v Palmeiras (01:50 BST)	2.05	3.35	3.5	107.20 %
	SC Internacional v Fluminense FC (01:50 BST)	1.61	3.6	5.5	107.86 %

[Felippe_Gonçalves]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Goias x Avai Pick: AH Goias -1 # @1.87 SBObet # 5/10 There are two teams who need points after the last round were both defeated. The Goias was Ilha do Retiro to make a weak game, where despite creating two or three good chances to goal, was not the same team that was playing quality football since the start of the championship. The defeat (1x0), left the coach Helio dos Anjos very angry with his team and with the referee that gave a dubious penalty to the adversary. Interestingly, the Goias have not achieved a good set of results this season in the Serra Dourada. Last year, this was the strength of the team also headed by Helio dos Anjos, who has 11 wins in 19 games. Until now in this Brasileirão, managed only 1 win in 5 games. I believe that the Avai is the ideal opponent for the Goias win again and get another victory at home. I believe the striker Felipe, best scorer of the league with 7 goals, will create many difficulties for the defense of the Avai. It is a very fast player in offensive area, and that through an excellent moment. To worsen the situation of the Avai, the coach Silas will not count with their two main center defenders. Emerson and Anderson have been suspended for three yellow cards. In the rest of the team, other changes should be made. The Goiass will also have some abscenses. The defender Rafael Toloi is in the Brazil Under-20 Squad, but I think that the defensive sector of Goias will not have much work in this game. Another abscence will be the lateral Vitor who is suspended and striker Iarley that who is recovering from a minor injury. Even with these absences, I see Goias as a strong technically and psychologically team at the moment. The Avai will enter into the field with a big pressure, have 3 losses followed, and 4 in last 5 games. Clearly the Avai is in crisis and has not formed a team yet. But the Goias has a more experienced team, and should return to winning with some ease.

[happygooner]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Looking at nothing more than the stats Santos seem a little short in price. Any team news that could be offered or any reasoning from our resident experts on why this should be? Lost this fixture last year. Only won 2 home games since the season began where as Gremio the lesser have only lost 1 away. Left an unmatched lay at 1.69. Any opinions? Important info that I'm clearly missng:unsure?

[JackJarvis]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july )

Sport	Football (S.America)
Event	Coritiba vs Gremio
Selection	Coritiba (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	15/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.48 (Lay)
Reasoning	Gremio are playing so well of late I am going to take a chance and ignore their poor away form in this fixture. Recent 4-1 and 3-0 thrashings of Atletico PR and Corinthians at home have showed they are one of the best sides in this league. If only they could play like that away from home they would definetly be right up there challenging for the title. Their away form has been poor so far this season though with just 1 draw and 3 losses. However their last two games have suggested they have hit a run of form and despite this being away from home, they carry huge momentum into this fixture. Coritiba are one of the stronger home sides in this league but they come into this after a 3-1 loss to Barueri at the weekend and all the momentum is with the visitors. I know there is a bit of risk to this but if Gremio can get out the blocks quickly tonight just like their recent home form, they should be able to contain Coritiba at least and less than 6/4 seems short for the home team in my opinion.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july )

Sport	Football (S.America)
Event	Santos vs Barueri
Selection	Santos (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	16/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 1.75 (Lay)
Reasoning	I don't understand the odds at all here. Santos lost 6-2 away at Vitoria at the weekend and despite their home form being much better than their away form, they are too short up against an in form Barueri. Barueri are unbeaten in their last 7 games and that includes 4 wins, the last one coming just a few days ago when beating Coritiba 3-1. Yes Santos are a better team at home but Barueri are no walkovers on the road and 8/11 is a joke for the home side.

[happygooner]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july )

Sport	Football (S.America)
Event	Santos vs Barueri
Selection	Santos (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	16/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 1.75 (Lay)
Reasoning	I don't understand the odds at all here. Santos lost 6-2 away at Vitoria at the weekend and despite their home form being much better than their away form' date= they are too short up against an in form Barueri. Barueri are unbeaten in their last 7 games and that includes 4 wins, the last one coming just a few days ago when beating Coritiba 3-1. Yes Santos are a better team at home but Barueri are no walkovers on the road and 8/11 is a joke for the home side.

Either you have quite a following or people agree with us:lol Odds have shot out to 1.90 on Betfair now. Too much dilly dallying around trying for a lower price has cost me a little. First I tried 1.69 and when that wasn't going to happen I tried 1.75. Price shot out to 1.80 so I left it at 1.80 unmatched. Next minute it's 1.9:eek Figure anything odds on is good here though so laid at 1.89:hope What do you think of Santo Andre? Left unmatched lay at 3.5 for Paranaense.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Its also an advantage when the odds go in your favour. :) I agree, Santos should be 11/8 or such imo, at the very least but that is only based on the stats I have. 1.75 was a crazy price. I really don't have a view on the other game mate I don't fancy anything in it tbh, good luck though :ok

[Limitlezz]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Agree with you Jack. Gremio are playing insanely good these days and seems unstoppable. Followed your bet. 10 out of 10 :)

[El NihiL]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) A note to Gremio backers: Remember that they've an important derby at the weekend against Internacional; reports imply that player's mind might be there; Important player Souza for instance got a suspicious yellow card in the last match, and suspended; They've other missings as well;

[El NihiL]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Agree that Barueri's odds are tasty; Watched some matches and they play solid hell football there but as far as I know their only away win was against Cruzeiro (odds were above 5.50 and home team was missing some players) they have a habit of getting red cards easily, hope don't repeat this time..Not decided but I'll pass I guess.. PAlmerias, hım, good odds; but late time to watch and enjoy..I might try th DNB option; Should check the team news first

[Bagzi]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Coritiba FC (0)AH at @1,81 (bet1128) - 5/10 over 2,5 goals @1,91 (betCHRONICLE) - 7/10 Gremio will miss three key players for tonight match: Rever (24 year old defender, 7 games - 1 goal) - Rafael Marques will be his substitute (1 goal), Souza, main midfielder (30 years old, 8 games, 2 goals) - suspended, and two key attackers Maxi Lopes (8 games, 4 goals - 25 years old Argentina international) - illness, flu. Second unavailable player is G.Herrera (25 years, 7 games, 3 goals so far) injured. On the other side - Coritiba has two unavailable players: key defender Marcio Gabriel and main 27 year old midfielder Jaílton (7 games). Great attacker Marcos Aurelio will be in first line-up and I expect at least one goal from him tonight (9 games, 3 goals). His team mate in attack will be best Coritiba goalscorer Marcelinho (9 games, 4 goals). With this squad I think that Coritiba should have nice chance to get all three points, but Gremio is well known side and has two wins in a row, so I will go with Coritiba (0)AH. My other bet will be over 2,5 goals, good luck to all and cheers... Head to head:

16-11-08	Serie A	Grêmio	2 - 1	Coritiba
01-08-08	Serie A	Coritiba	0 - 1	Grêmio
29-09-04	Serie A	Coritiba	2 - 1	Grêmio
19-06-04	Serie A	Grêmio	1 - 1	Coritiba
20-09-03	Serie A	Coritiba	1 - 0	Grêmio
11-05-03	Serie A	Grêmio	1 - 0	Coritiba
16-10-02	Serie A	Coritiba	0 - 0	Grêmio
16-09-01	Serie A	Grêmio	2 - 0	Coritiba
30-09-00	Serie A	Coritiba	1 - 2	Grêmio
03-10-99	Serie A	Coritiba	4 - 0	Grêmio

[JackJarvis]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) It was looking good when Gremio went 1-0 up on 9mins but Coritiba equalised right on the stroke of half time and 2 mins into the 2nd half, Gremio are down to 10men.... Yet another red card goes against me in Brazil, its not over yet but Ive got a feeling it will cost us a winning lay :(

[JackJarvis]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) And there we go, 2-1 Coritiba... I don't mind losing but I can't stand losing after going down to 10 men!!!! :@

[Bagzi]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Flamengo v Palmeiras over 2,5 goals @1,75 (CANBET) - 6/10 With Diego Sousa (great midfielder, 10 games) on one side (Palmeiras), and Adriano (27 years old, 7 games -5 goals) on other side (Flamengo) my only option for this game is over 2,5 goals, and maybe we might see even over 3,5 goals this early european morning. Head to head:

16-11-08	Serie A	Flamengo	5 - 2	Palmeiras
31-07-08	Serie A	Palmeiras	1 - 0	Flamengo
19-08-07	Serie A	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Flamengo
13-05-07	Serie A	Flamengo	2 - 4	Palmeiras
08-10-06	Serie A	Palmeiras	3 - 1	Flamengo
31-05-06	Serie A	Flamengo	2 - 1	Palmeiras
03-11-05	Serie A	Palmeiras	0 - 1	Flamengo
28-07-05	Serie A	Flamengo	0 - 0	Palmeiras
28-11-04	Serie A	Palmeiras	1 - 2	Flamengo
01-08-04	Serie A	Flamengo	0 - 1	Palmeiras

[Limitlezz]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Yeah to bad for Gremio as they were playing good in the first half. Red card pumped the breaks for them it seems. For me.. personally.. I have never come across a nation that deals this many yellow/red cards :)

[Bagzi]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Well, I am watching game in live streaming and from what I see Coritiba were better side mostly in first half, quality of possesion was on their side and they equalised in last minute of first half. Yeah, young defender Thiego was sent of in 46´of the match but Gremio looked bad before that exclusion...

[JackJarvis]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july )

Yeah to bad for Gremio as they were playing good in the first half. Red card pumped the breaks for them it seems. For me.. personally.. I have never come across a nation that deals this many yellow/red cards :)

Yep, amount of diving is unreal. Its a case of don't tickle his shirt or you get a yellow card. :@

[Limitlezz]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Goal for Barueri on the other hand now :) fingers crossed. Hope there wont be any red cards for them.

[Limitlezz]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Make that two ;)

[El NihiL]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july )

Make that two ;)

Hope they keep the lead only 45 minutes...I'm on 2/1 Ht/Ft...;)

[JackJarvis]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Yes thats good still pissed off though as it doesn't cover the Coritiba lay..... just shows you the red card did make the difference as they have only scored 1 goal all 2nd half against 10 men :(

[Limitlezz]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Yeah. I guess we just have to remember that betting on brazilian matches can easily be affected by red cards. It has happend to me several times now. The brazilians are agressive. As hell :(

[Bagzi]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Coritiba FC (0)AH at @1,81 (bet1128) - 5/10:ok over 2,5 goals @1,91 (betCHRONICLE) - 7/10:ok

[nori]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) i cant belive it guys, santos just equalised now in the 90+ min.....had a double internacional and barueri :wall

[Nelly-]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Ehh bad today with a lot of red cards should have done like Bagzi did with over's great job today BAgzi !

[Bagzi]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Flamengo v Palmeiras over 2,5 goals @1,75 (CANBET) - 6/10:ok

[Bagzi]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july )

Ehh bad today with a lot of red cards should have done like Bagzi did with over's great job today BAgzi !

Yeah mate, lot of red cards but that is ok for overs:ok, nice profitable morning for me:clap

[JackJarvis]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july )

i cant belive it guys' date=' santos just equalised now in the 90+ min.....had a double internacional and barueri :wall[/quote'] Yeah another red card went against me thankfully Barueru managed to hold on for a draw at least so my lay was still up. Bloody unreal the amount of red cards though.

[newestpunter]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) personally i am of the opinion that the overs is the most secure bet in the brazilian leagues last set of fixtures i think only 2 games finished under 1.5, every game had at least one goal and this time out i think there has only been one under 1.5 couple more games on tonight, a few look certs for 1.5+ imo

[happygooner]

Re: Brazil » Série A ( 15/16 july ) Thinking that Corinthians, Nautico & Sao Paulo all look too short based on the stats. Corinthians in mid table sharing same goal difference as Sport Recife and only other matchup in serie at this ground ended 1-2 to Sport. Only current/home away form and last cup match a slight put off at the moment but surely 1.5-1.6 is stupidly short:unsure Nautico propping up the table with only a solid home record keeping them off the bottom playing Vitoria a team who started poorly on the road but have picked up in last 3 games with 1 draw and 2 wins. Vitoria in touch at the top of the table and also still have that 6-2 home spanking of Santos fresh in their heads. Again surely Nautico should be closer to around 3.00 rather than the 2.4-2.5 on offer. Sao Paulo who are struggling to win at home right now, yet to win on the road, and languishing in the bottom half of the table away to Mineiro who sit top and unbeaten at home. Sao Paulo only 1 win in 5 from this fixture h2h although that was a 0-5 spanking which has skewed the f/a figures somewhat. Surely price should be between 4.00 & 5.00 or similar not 3.2-3.5:unsure Anyone care to make sense of all this by telling me the opposing teams all have swine flu or have the oddsmakers just fallen asleep on the job:lol :unsure..........?