NH Novice Hurdlers

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Back after nearly two weeks of no jump racing, we should start to see some of the better juveniles coming out from the flat now and also the bumper horses from the better stables, could be a tricky time for a month or two and a lot of debutants winning, obviously a time to bet with caution. 220 Utt: 90 Akertac, 85 Tiermore, 84 Himayna 200 Plu: 90 Royal And Aincient, 83 Frameit, 74 Mini Max 300 Plu: 87 Marc Aurele, 86 Whatdoyoucallit, 86 Django Rhienhardt Preview; The first at Plumpton is a juvenile event that Royal And Aincent has the chance to go one better than his fair debut, he stayed on that day and jumped ok, maybe wants it softer but on form is a way clear of Frameit who just cant jump but has ability, has had two runs now but cant be backed just yet. Of the newcomers maybe Kahfre is the most likely. The second race is quite competative, Marc Aurele has been very disappointing, on his day would be dangerous but would rather look to the progressive types in Whatdoyoucallit and Django Rhienhardt, both finished second last time to form horses, of the two Whatdoyoucallit looks the best in the form book. Freedom Fire has a double penalty and will need a career best to win this under that weight. Over at Uttoxeter we have just one race, easy winner Tiermore is still improving, he led them from a long way home last time and will try the same here. Akertac looks a danger on his second at Huntingdon but hasnt ran for a while and looks a real stayer, recieves the weight but may need this opener. Call Me Bill from the Bowen yard is probably the most interesting of the bumper horses. Bet: Will back Tiermore EW if the price is ok.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Ok limited markets but need to post; 220 Utt: Tiermore 1pt EW (8/1 Bet365 bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 220 Utt: Tiermore 1pt EW (8/1 Bet365 bog)lost Stakes: 1368pts Returns: 1429.31pts Profit : 61.31pts Yield : 4.14% Top Rated Stakes : 861 pts Returns: 867.29 pts Profit: 6.29 pts Yield : 0.73

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 210 Str: 80 Flichity, 75 Backfromthebrink, 73 Regs Ruby 410 Str: 87 Theologist, 86 Mutadarrej, 78 Unleashed Preview; Best race is the last one where the promising yet a little frustrating Mutadarrej takes on the experienced Theologist. The latter has been taking on better company and could be useful as a second season novice. Mutadarrej steps up in trip having been caught flat footed a couple of times, if it improves him then he will go close. One day Unleashed will come good but not a betting proposition. The first race sees Flichity as fav after a last fence fall last time when beaten, has been a touch disappointing but this is his grade. Over The Bill is fancied but hasnt shown enough to me while a couple of bumper horses are worth watching in the market. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Round Up Theologist just got the better of Mutajarred in a driving finish with Unleashed a few lengths back in third who ran much better over the longer trip. The winner looked beat on the turn in but the runner up is a quirky sort and needs things to drop just right, even AP couldnt drag him over the line. Stakes: 1368pts Returns: 1429.31pts Profit : 61.31pts Yield : 4.48% Top Rated Stakes : 863 pts Returns: 869.54 pts Profit: 6.54 pts Yield : 0.75

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 225 Perth: 87 Present To You, 78 Treason Trial, 76 Devotion To Duty Tricky race at Perth today as it usually is, we often get the mix of northern and southern form here plus plenty of Irish raiders so its not easy to get any calateral form. Present To You travels up from the Hobbs yard and has some fair placed form, what we do know is the horse will stay and cope with the ground. The Twiston-Davies team always send a few up and Frontier Spirit has his debut after some nice efforts in bumpers last year. Treason Trial and Devotion To Duty are the other ones with form at bigger prices and could go well while the Irish are represented by Promising Times, a well thought of debutant with AP booked and Traffic Article who ran ok on his last run but comes from the Gordon Elliot yard so anythings possible. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Round Up Well the race yesterday went to the newcomer from the Twiston-Davies yard, Frontier Spirit, he travelled well and ran on to beat Devotion To Duty. The fav ran poorly back in fourth, was much too free and needs holding up, he's obviously much better than this. Think this race just proves what I said the other day, lots of newcomers will be appearing, without penalties and will take advantage of the 'summer' novices. Stakes: 1368pts Returns: 1429.31pts Profit : 61.31pts Yield : 4.48% Top Rated Stakes : 864 pts Returns: 869.54 pts Profit: 5.54 pts Yield : 0.64

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 210 Fon: No Ratings 340 Fon: 88 Spent, 87 Synthe Davis 220 Per: No Ratings 250 Per: 88 Montoyas Son, 87 The Cockney Squire, 87 Time Machine Preview; Very disappointing novices today, two meetings and four races yet can only rate two of the races due to one being a 3yo with no form and the other a 4 runner race where only one has ran. Of the two we have left, the race at Fontwell is a real poser, we have Synthe Davis at long odds on, she carries a double penalty and has ran well since changing stables, she has also shown temperament and not one to have your mortgage on. The only danger Spent has been second three times, looks well in at the weights but question marks hang over him so definitely a race to swerve. At Perth the ground is very soft and some of these will struggle to get home, its very competative with a few in with a chance. Montoyas Son will love the ground and sets the standard but we have two promising Irish raiders who look sure to go well, The Cockney Squire looks best of those from Time Machine. Jewelled Dagger and Makhaaleb also carry penalties and may find one or two too good here. Its a tight contest and the value is hard to find. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 150 Wor: 84 Butlers Glen, 74 Coach And Four, 54 Sir Bere 330 Wor: 92 Mutadarraj, 90 Meet The Critics, 88 Gambo Preview; Butlers Glen should win the first, she was second on her debut and the race has no strength in depth, the Twiston-Davies bumper horse could be the danger. At a bigger price Coach And Four could run well. The other race sees Mutadarraj turning out quickly after his narrow defeat at Stratford the other day, has ability but needs things to drop just right. Gambo is interesting and the Hobbs have a debutant with a high reputation so a tricky race. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Round Up Bit of catching up to do, the other day Synthe Davis was very impressive and seems to have turned a corner since leaving the Henderson yard, no signs of the early temperament problems with her new front running tactics, will step up now i would think amd may be aimed at a big mares race. Time Machine was impressive at Perth, he came through nicely and won as he wanted, Jewelled Dagger ran well for a long way but will continue to find these improvers with no penalties from now on. Yesterday once again highlighted the problem we have at the minute, a debutant from the Twiston-Davies yard scooting up from the summer form horses, Lambs Cross hadnt even been that impressive in bumpers but still won easily, fav Butlers Glen ran a shocker back in fourth but you just cant take short odds just now when there are fancied debutants about. In the other race yesterday Gambo out stayed them to win in workmanlike fashion, Meet The Critics ran a nice race from the front and Mutujarred proved once again he is one to take on. The Hobbs newcomer Foynes Island ran a cracker in second and will be winning soon I would have thought. Stakes: 1368pts Returns: 1429.31pts Profit : 61.31pts Yield : 4.48% Top Rated Stakes : 868 pts Returns: 869.54 pts Profit: 1.54 pts Yield : 0.17

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 250 MR: 97 Beyond, 97 Gulf Punch, 96 Two Kisses 430 MR: Nothing Rated over 70. Preview Two races of completely different types today, the second race is dominated by newcomers as the ones with form havnt reached a rating that is thought capable of winning a novice race, I always work on the basis that you need a rating of 70 at least to have any chance and Chadwell Spring comes out top on just 68. Hobbs and King send debutants up and should fight out the finish. The other race is fascinating, the first real battle of the best 3yo's we have seen so far, we have half a dozen previous winners in the field and plenty of experience, as the ratings suggest there is not a lot to choose between them on figures. Beyond will be popular with AP booked again but he does make hard work of his jumping, he may be found out here. Meetings Man has been doing his job well and Architrave hasnt been extended as yet. One I like is Two Kisses, she travels very well in her races and may still be on the upgrade. Bet: 250 MR: Two Kisses 1pt EW (9/2 Skybet)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Round Up A really good race we had yesterday for the juvenile prize, most of the form horses ran well which gives us an angle on the book for future races, not many will be able to win once the big guns come out but the front 6 are worth following in lesser company. Architrave and Two Kisses should be able to step up in grade and the third Jubail ran a cracker on his debut. Royal And Aincent back in sixth was staying on and will win soon on this showing. 250 MR: Two Kisses 1pt EW (9/2 Skybet)2nd Stakes: 1370pts Returns: 1431.21pts Profit : 61.21pts Yield : 4.46% Top Rated Stakes : 869 pts Returns: 869.54 pts Profit: 0.54 pts Yield : 0.6%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 200 MR: 92 Get It On, 86 Didbrook, 85 Rudanphast 310 MR: 90 Heron Bay, 89 Downward Spiral, 88 Penylan Star Preview; Two nice races today, the first is a battle between two horses with penalties against two with solid form recieving weight add to the mix a debutant from the Twiston-Davies yard and we have a decent contest. Top weight Rubipresent hanst done anything wrong but a double penalty will be hard to win with in this company. Rudanphast was impressive last time and should be therabouts while Get It On showed loads of promise at Huntingdon on his first run in England, he made a couple of errors that day at the wrong time and could be a danger to all. Didbrook has left the Twiston-Davies yard recently but Sam retains the ride, she ran ok on debut. Skipper Robin won his bumper nicely and like all of the stables runners lately will be fit for his first try over hurdles. The 3 mile race is very competative, not so many races to enter at this trip so they all usually turn up and this is the case today. Penylan Star is the obvious choice on last seasons win but ran poorly last time and wont be a price. Heron Bay needs to prove his stamina while Ousininlaw and Downward Spiral have no such worries but are moderate. Bobby Magern makes his debut but this is not an easy introduction to hurdles, the stable also run Marblehead who has been chasing and could be dangerous. Bet; 200 MR: Get It On 1pt EW (11/2 Skybet) 310 MR: Heron Bay 1pt EW (11/2 SJ bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Round Up A winner at last! Get It On ran really well and won with plenty in hand, held up and travelled smoothly, jumped better and stayed on to beat Rubipresent who ran a cracker with the weight. Rudanphast made a terrible mistake 3 out which cooked his goose while Skipper Robin jumped poorly throughout. The 3 mile race was a close run thing with Penylan Star getting up in the last stride after being headed by Bobby Magern who ran a really promising race on debut. They can both go on from here and will be interesting next time. Heron Bay ran well until he ran out of petrol two out, he will be aimed at much shorter trips now. Marblehead was the genuine stayer in the race and he plugged on for third. Bet; 200 MR: Get It On 1pt EW (11/2 Skybet) WON 310 MR: Heron Bay 1pt EW (11/2 SJ bog) lost Stakes: 1374pts Returns: 1440.09pts Profit : 66.09pts Yield : 4.81% Top Rated Stakes : 871 pts Returns: 875.54 pts Profit: 4.54 pts Yield : 0.52%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 225 Seg: 92 Southerness, 90 Veronicas Boy, 86 Morning Time 335 Seg: 89 Clarach, 88 Lady Jinks, 83 Russian War Preview; A couple of nice races today and both fav's look to have every chance at first glance. Southerness is a very unlucky horse, had some decent form last season and should have won but for falling at the last hurdle, fell next time too when running well so obvious questions to answer. Moved to the Pipe's since then and a chance here in a lower grade contest. The Webber horse Ashammar is promising, he took on much better company when last seen and is well thought of. Morning Time, Veronicas Boy and Rain Stops Play have all been running quite well but maybe not up to winning this while top weight Bucephalus is consistant but a double penalty against a couple of improvers looks like he will need a career best. The second race is not so competative and fav Clarach despite not cutting much ice in Ireland this year must have a chance recieving all the allowances now with Tim Vaughan, Irish raider Russian War won well last time but has 11st 12lbs to shoulder, he will be therabouts with AP booked. Cailin Na Ri has been busy, she is exposed and doesnt look good enough while Lady Jinks steps back into novice company after moving up north this season and has run some fair races. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Stakes: 1374pts Returns: 1440.09pts Profit : 66.09pts Yield : 4.81% Top Rated Stakes : 873 pts Returns: 875.54 pts Profit: 2.54 pts Yield : 0.32%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 315 Hex: 93 Roll Over Rose, 92 Majestic Mayhem 425 Hex: 91 Al Qeddaaf, 88 Maggio, 86 Quacity Preview; The ground is softening all the time and Hexham can throw up some funny results anyway so be wary today. The first race is difficult, 90+ rated flat horse Moon Indigo makes his debut and obviously if he can jump will be hard to beat. Its close between the two with form, Majestic Mayhem is no mug but has penalties while the mare Roll Over Rose ran well on her debut and recieves a lot of weight. The other race sees the return of Al Qeddaaf, has had plenty of chances and hasnt taken them, well this is another guilt edged chance to win a novice race. Maggio has some good form but his jumping cost him last season and Quacity is progressing nicely but needs to improve a bit more. Isitcozimcool could run well at a decent price and is best of the others. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Stakes: 1374pts Returns: 1440.09pts Profit : 66.09pts Yield : 4.81% Top Rated Stakes : 875 pts Returns: 877.34 pts Profit: 2.34 pts Yield : 0.26%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 220 Fon: 82 Optimistic Duke, 81 Finch Flyer, 73 Mini Max 255 Fon: 81 Vincitore, 81 Moonwolf, 57 Iona Days Preview; Not very inspiring stuff for a saturday card at Fontwell, its quite soft and the first race for the 3yo's will take some getting. Just two with decent form, both had one run, Optimistic Duke was second to Architrave which is solid enough and Finch Flyer was fancied on his debut but was never travelling and stayed on late. Of the newcomers Kalamil looks the one, likes soft ground and stayed 14f so he should go well. The other race is very moderate with previous winner Vincitore heading the market, his win was in a very average race and carries the penalty although that is negated by the young claimer on board. Moonwolf ran ok behind Sircozy without ever looking dangerous, he had plenty of runs on the flat and has yet to win so he may be limited. Iona Days has some scope at least, made late headway last time and could be a better horse this season while ex flat horse El Diego makes his debut but may need this. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Stakes: 1374pts Returns: 1440.09pts Profit : 66.09pts Yield : 4.81% Top Rated Stakes : 877 pts Returns: 881.84 pts Profit: 4.84 pts Yield : 0.55%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Not going to have any time tomorrow so will get the ratings up now. 130 Utt: 87 Front Of House, 84 Himayna, 76 Newyearsresolution 235 Utt: 93 Kack Handed, 88 Sagredo, 84 Hustle 255 Kel: No Ratings 415 Kel: 101 Any Given Day, 88 Grand Zouki, 85 Now This Is It 455 Kel: 85 Baraathen, 83 Fearless Falcon, 82 Forsyth 210 Hnt: 91 Society Venue, 83 Betabob, 83 Occasionally Yours 245 Hnt: 86 Sircozy, 80 Lindsays Dream, 76 Welcome Wonder 405 Hnt: 85 Kahfre, 84 Joan D'Arc, 83 AP Ling Preview; Lots of racing tomorrow but with heavy rain expected who knows what the ground will be like throughout the UK and how many NR's we will get. Anyway, looks likely to be a few short one about with the likes of Front Of House, Any Given Day and Sircozy all seem to have straight forward chances. We have 3 juvenile events which will be tricky just now, maybe Khafre can follow up in the last at Huntingdon. Doesnt look to be any bets out there at first glance and will have a quick look at the markets in the morning.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Stakes: 1374pts Returns: 1440.09pts Profit : 66.09pts Yield : 4.81% Top Rated Stakes : 884 pts Returns: 881.84 pts Profit: -2.16 pts Yield : -0.24%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 430 Tow: 95 Kack Handed, 88 Spent, 86 Django Reinhardt 250 Lud: 97 Miss Overdrive, 93 Be My Light, 90 Astrolibra Preview; One race at each meeting today, the mares race at Ludlow is very competative with plenty of recent form to go on. Miss Overdrive has her first run since April when contesting a couple of top races, this is more her grade and if fit should run well. Fav is Boragh Princess from the Elliot yard, has shown some fair form in Ireland and must be a threat. There is a host of horses that could reach the frame, the likes of Astrolibra, Be My Light, Black Annie and Precelli all have ability. The race at Towcester will be a slog as usual, Kack Handed who was pulled out the other day will be the form horse but there are three newcomers from good stables that may cause problems, Causing Chaos, Alnwick and Cinderella Rose all must be respected. Spent has had a few chances now but can be forgiven his last run, he got involved in chasing Synthe Davis and paid the price, he could be placed again. Bet 430 Tow: Spent 1pt EW (11/1 VCBet)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Round Up Miss Overdrive won the race at Ludlow quite nicely, she had ran in some tough races last season and took advantage of the drop in grade, Irish raider Boragh Princess ran best of the others and may find a little race over here. At Towcester the finish was fought out between two debutants, Cinderella Rose looks a decent type and won well, the Twiston Davies horse takes a lot of credit too, first time on a racecourse and was still there with every chance coming up the straight. Form horse Kack Handed ran as though needing the run and Spent was travelling ok when falling but too early to say what he would have done. Bet 430 Tow: Spent 1pt EW (11/1 VCBet)fell Stakes: 1376pts Returns: 1440.09pts Profit : 64.09pts Yield : 4.61% Top Rated Stakes : 886 pts Returns: 886.34 pts Profit: 0.34 pts Yield : 0.03%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 225 Exe: 87 Deans Grange, 76 Mollana View, 43 Canyouseeme 200 Wor: 94 Qroktou, 92 Stormyislandahead, 87 Haddron Collider 230 Wor: No Ratings Preview: Two races to cover today as the third only has one runner that has ran over hurdles. At Worcester Philip Hobbs sends out Qroktou, he looked a real stayer last season and finished off by running well in second at Cheltenham off a mark of 115, that should be good enough in this grade. Stormyislandahead tried 3 miles last time and seemed to stay ok but doesnt do anything quickly, he may be hard to place while Haddron Collider is going to struggle with the penalty. At Exeter the betting is dominated by two newcomers, Dunraven Storm could make it a good day for the Hobbs yard, this one was impressive in bumpers last year and looks an exciting prospect. Nicky Henderson runs Binoculars half brother Remember Now, showed a little abilty on the flat and will be interesting to watch. Of the form horses only Deans Grange seems to be at the level to get involved, carries a penalty for winning a fair race at Kempton but this is going to be tough to concede weight to two well regarded rivals but a place is certainly not out of the question. Mollana View is the other with previous but needs to step up quite a lot to get involved. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Just the ratings today, having trouble with the database at the minute. 130 Car: 87 Elevenses, 87 Lago Verde, 80 County Colours 200 Car: 81 You Know Yourself, 80 Chapolimoss, 75 Isitcozimcool

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 3 out of the last 4 races have been won well by debuatants, impossible to gague most of the races at the minute but all good for future events and the form book. Stakes: 1376pts Returns: 1440.09pts Profit : 64.09pts Yield : 4.61% Top Rated Stakes : 890 pts Returns: 886.34 pts Profit: -4.34 pts Yield : -0.49%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Shooting a wedding tomorrow so wont have much time so posting the ratings up now. 225 Ban: 89 Theres No Panic, 86+ Drill Sergeant, 86 Get It On. 405 Ban: 88 Pie At Midnight, 85 My Brother Sylvest, 77 Malindi Bay 235 Hex: No Rating above 70 420 Hex: 89 Monagram, 79 Bavard Court, 77 Oil Burner 220 Che: No Ratings 250 Che: 96 William Hogarth, 87+ Karasenir, 86 Park Lane

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 210 Ffos: 87 Ixora, 82 Clarach, 52 Cailin Ceol. 320 Ffos: 88 Silver Token, 78 Jump Up, 55 Littledean Jimmy. Off London all day so will catch up with everything tomorrow.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009/10 Round Up Busy weekend for me and the novices, 4 winners top rated out of the six races and the other two going to newcomers, so cant complain. On Saturday, Theres No Panic and Get It On were withdrawn apparantly leaving the way clear for Drill Sergeant but he found the Hobbs horse Kilcrea Kim too strong and he won nicely. Drill Sergeant isnt a natural over timber and maybe this isnt his game? In the later race at Bangor we saw an impressive performance from the Nicholls debutant Silviniaco Conti, he won by 30 lengths, obviously should be able to follow up. At Hexham Monogram finally got his win after showing temperament in the past, he made hard work of it and looks a tricky ride, Bavard Court was a NR here so the task was made a little easier but maybe one to be wary of under a penalty. At Chepstow hot fav Karasenir threw his race away with some poor jumping when put under pressure by William Hogarth, these young novice often look impressive when out on their own and winning easily in poor races but we get to find out the real horses capabilities when they step up in class and he needs to learn a bit more about the game, William Hogarth has plenty of experience and that made the difference, i'd bet Karasenir would turn the tables next time but thats little consolation for those that steamed in at very short prices. Yesterday at Ffos Las we saw Ixora beat Clarach in the opener, slow pace until the home straight and Ixora pressed on from the front and the tricky Clarach was never going to catch him. The runner up is one to be wary of in my book. The other race only ended up with 4 runners, Silver Token winning fairly comfortably from Jump Up in a race that didnt really give us any clues to the future. Going back to the point i was making about how many debutants are winning just now, i will put an asterix on the races where i think a newcomer is a live danger to the best rated horses in the field, personally i avoid these races in the main, the odd time its worth an EW bet if the newcomer is very short and you get a bet to nothing on one of the others. Overall i expect few bets this month and the Top Rated profit to drop quite a bit but we should get back to normal around mid november. Stakes: 1376pts Returns: 1440.09pts Profit : 64.09pts Yield : 4.61% Top Rated Stakes : 896 pts Returns: 899.47 pts Profit: 3.47 pts Yield : 0.38%