Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Milen' date=' the word is that WaF goes for the Scottish National- where did you see confirmation that he goes for Aintree, as I too would be interested if he runs :ok[/quote'] Nicholls said after the race "great national trial". I'd be surprised if he runs top weight in the Scottish to be fair? Off 11-6 (156) in the Grand National. He probably ran to 165+ in the Gold Cup with the blinkers.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newton Abbot 5.15 Deloughante 0.75pt EW - 33/1 Bet365 3rd in a hunter chase for this trainer in May and 4,1,4,1,3 in pointers since. The favorite looks strong, but there isn't much depth in the race. I think my selection can sneak into the palces and with a bit more luck why not win. Jockey has won on him 5 times. Trainer boost fantastic record in these races. 14 runners, 3 wins, 5 2nds and 1 3rd. The ground is drying out all the time and the better ground, the bigger the chance of a good run.

[Aykay1]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheers :ok Pretty sure Ch4 said Scottish National after the race on Friday but anything Nicholls says would overrule them obviously ;)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Cheers :ok Pretty sure Ch4 said Scottish National after the race on Friday but anything Nicholls says would overrule them obviously ;)

Who knows, few bookies are not offering odds for GN and he drifted again now on Betfair. They might claim off him in the Scottish national, but he'll have a stiff task. He'll never be 156 for a handicap again like it's in the GN.

[Aykay1]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 I agree - Hope he runs :hope good luck today, ive had a small each way bet on Deloughante.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Thanks. Not very hopeful with ground g/s soft in places. I thought it's genuine g/s and can dry out to good g/s for the last race. Still a big price though.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Milen' date=' the word is that WaF goes for the Scottish National- where did you see confirmation that he goes for Aintree, as I too would be interested if he runs :ok[/quote'] What A Friend excelled in the Gold Cup, finishing fourth, and is "highly likely" to run in the John Smith's Grand National if the ground is good.

[Aykay1]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Yep just read that, just took an average of 54.55 on betfair. Will update my thread later :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Lingfield 4.00 Stravita 1.5t EW - 9/2 Chased a very well handicapped horse lto, who won again since. This looks a bad race and I can see her breaking her duck for Jim Best. Colin Tizzard's horse is in first time blinkers, but is a very disappointing sort. So is Garry Moore's, who is a good horse on the flat, but I'm not sure he's entirely in love with this game.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Exeter 3.35 Belcantista 0.75 win - 8/1 Fred Useful over hurdles last year winning here and then finishing 2nd in a competitive race behind Sentry Duty. Jumped well on chasing debut here in November. Traveled for a long way to chase Royal Charm and Carrickboy 4 out. Weakened rapidly after that and finished lame. Been given few months off and I expect top trainer to have found the cause for this. I expect a lot better showing today encountering better ground and for me he's a tad overpriced at 8s.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Exeter 5.20 Ben Cee Pee M 0.5pt EW - 11/1 Backed him lto at Wincanton over 2m6f, but track and trip weren't enough of a test for him. 3m around here should suit and first time cheek-pieces are interesting. He's been nibbled all morning and trimmed from 14s into 10s. Most of these are pretty exposed and few others won't like the quicker ground. Ben Cee Pee M won his bumepr on good to firm at Towcester and suitable ground conditions with this extended trip over a stiff track should give him a good chance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Grand National Backstage 1pt win - 14/1 nrnb Have to be on this fella, who was going well last year before unseating. Don't think he's particularly good value, but trainer will have him spot on and there are rumours Paul Carberry is riding and I make him a danger.

Ballabriggs 2pt win - 33/1 The Midnight Club 1.5pt EW - 25/1 Midnight Chase 0.5pt win - 120/1 What A Friend 0.75pt win - 50/1

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe Sarafina 1pt win - 20/1 I can't believe I'm seeing 20/1. I know it's 7 months from now, but she was so unlucky in last year's race. To say that she was stopped in her run would be an understatement. Gerald Mosse was almost standing up in the irons as he snatched her up behind the weakening Middas Touch. Could've been brought down there. She was badly hampered in the melee and actually very fortunate to keep her feet. Was in a good position prior to that and found herself at the back of the big field after this incident. I still don't know how she recovered to deliver her eye-catching rally for third. Read a cofirmation the other day that she has been awarded the 2010 best filly award and is now gearing towards a season in training as a 4yo. Race is in October and lots of uknown 3yo's are yet to show what they're capable of, but if Sarafina is fit and well, I can't see how she could be anywhere near this price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Arkle Chase Al Ferof 1pt win - 10/1 I knew Nicholls and Hales won't waste time with this fella over hurdles. Goes straight chasing next year and will probably win 2 novices and be 4/1 antepost fav. Had a look at the other principals for the division. I rate Peddlers Cross as a danger, but I have my doubts about chasers, who have had World Hurdle and Champion Hurdle campaigns. I prefer lightly raced sorts, who come straight from novice hurdling or from France. In that respect Peddlers Cross and Thousand Stars are not the types I'm looking at. Probably PC will be a very good novice chaser, but I'd still favor Al Ferof over him. Sprinter Sacre shouldn't be the same price on Supreme form. I also have doubts about him seeing out the trip fully. Sam Winner will probably need further when he goes chasing. The same could be said for Arvika Ligeonniere. He'd probably be best suited by a 2m4f trip. The antepost angle at the moment seems to be Al Feorf, who looks a chaser and has the speed to win an Arkle. Connections said from day one he'd be a Grade 1 horse when he goes chasing and the Supreme win proves he's definitely going in the right direction.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 2.40 Calusa Caldera 0.75pt EW - 11/1 SJ A decent horse, who returned after a lengthy absence to finish 2nd behind Shakalakaboomboom in November with today's rider on board. Didn't run his race 3 weeks ago when making a bad mistake mid race and was never at the races after that. Tom O'Brien takes over again and cheek-pieces are applied today. Race is a competitive affair, but all of the market principals are not particularly well handicapped and if Calusa Caldera is sparkled by the first time headgear, I think he can win today. Well handicapped if he shows his best foot, just needs more confidence and I rely on jockey and headgear to give him a chance today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 3.15 Master Eddy 1pt EW - 11/1 Coral Record at Newbury over hurdles reads 1,1,1. Won this race last year off 5lbs lower. Been running well over fences this season. 2nd chasing a Malcolm Jefferson horse on penultimate start, both well clear of the rest. Then fell at Exeter when still going well. Switches back to hurdles today and I expect him to give a good account of himself. Probably prefers softer ground, but has form on good too and I think the price is wrong.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 3.50 Persian Run 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Been monitoring this horse ever since he finished 2nd to Rebel Du Marquis over hurdles in April. Both well clear of the rest. Career over fences has been hit and miss so far, but I think he wasn't fininshing his races on softer ground and definitely needs quick surface. Tongue tie and cheek-pieces a positive today and return to sounder surface will suit. Ran a very good 2nd to Lake Legend on penultimate start, but the two efforts before and after were very disappointing. Yard is amongst the winners again and I'd give him a chance with the headgear today. I'm not sure horses like River D'Or and Winterwood deserve to be that short in the market. Alan King's always finds one too good. Probably Frankie Anson and Bai Zhu are the biggest danger.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Newbury 2.40 Calusa Caldera 0.75pt EW - 11/1 SJ A decent horse, who returned after a lengthy absence to finish 2nd behind Shakalakaboomboom in November with today's rider on board. Didn't run his race 3 weeks ago when making a bad mistake mid race and was never at the races after that. Tom O'Brien takes over again and cheek-pieces are applied today. Race is a competitive affair, but all of the market principals are not particularly well handicapped and if Calusa Caldera is sparkled by the first time headgear, I think he can win today. Well handicapped if he shows his best foot, just needs more confidence and I rely on jockey and headgear to give him a chance today.

:clap:clap Fantastic tipping!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheers Stu!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 5.35 Screaming Brave 0.75pt EW - 13/2 8th in the Imperial Cup and eyecatching 2nd before that. Few of the market leaders here won't like the watered ground, while my selection shouldn't mind it. In 8 runner field, I think he is worth an EW bet. Should still be on a feasable mark.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Lincoln Handicap Kalk Bay 0.75pt win - 12/1 Eton Forever 0.75pt win - 16/1 It'll be hard to get into the race off 92 for both of them, but if they are balloted out, the stakes will be returned. Both very lightly raced and unexposed. This race is now completely different to what it used to be and is won by a future pattern company horse. Taqleed is the obvious one, but his price has now gone to a degree. Plus, due to ownership, he won't have Buick on and I'm not Hills' biggest fan. Purely relying on luck that 92 will be ok for my two to get in. If not, then probably there won't be any betting angle in the race for me.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Cheers Stu!

No worries, well done with the each way on Master Eddy as well although at the same time unlucky as I really thought he was going to win coming up the home straight. David England fairly earnt his wage on him, never gave up.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

No worries' date=' well done with the each way on Master Eddy as well although at the same time unlucky as I really thought he was going to win coming up the home straight. David England fairly earnt his wage on him, never gave up.[/quote'] I feel a bit cheated with that winner there. Jim Old is such a terrible trainer.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 2.15 Cool Friend 1pt EW - 8/1 Boosted some very good form in 2009 and 2010. Twice beaten by Carole's Legacy. Then by Tara Royal and Awssome George. Finally won her chase in October when beating Adams Island by 12L. The latter has won twice since and was 2nd to Arkle winner Captain Chris last month. Awesome George and Tara Royal haven't done too bad either since they met Cool Friend. Two close defeats to Carole's Legacy also read well. Last time at Exeter was a bit disapointing, but she made a bad blunder early in the race and was never going after that. She might have also needed it after 4 months off the track. Today's race was probably the big seasonal target and I think she'll return to form and outrun his price here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 2.50 Alverstone 0.75pt EW - 12/1 A bit underrated by the market imo. Only because she's won at Chepstow over 3m and was tried over 3m at Ascot from the front, but I think she'll cope well with 2m5f around Newbury and good ground isn't a problem. The horses she beat at Warwick and Chepstow have both won since. Lto at Ascot jockey went far too quick in front and the ground was very sticky that day. She had no chance of getting involved. It looked a strange race alltogether that day. Finished 2nd over C&D to Sparky May in November. Big field and galloping track should be to her liking and yard is flying. I think she'll give a good account of herself and if she's not done for a bit of toe, she has every chance to win this race. I think she's definitely better than her handicap mark.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Bangor 4.20 Larks Lad 0.75pt EW - 10/1 Shaped well after lengthy absence last month. Traveled well for a long way before finishing a tired 9th. Should strip fitter today and on last year's form has a good chance. 2nd at Doncaster splitting Cool Mission and Premier Sagas over inadequate 2m3f trip. Both these are rated in the high 130s now. Then ran really well in the EBF Final at Sandown, but again trip was on the short side and was outpaced in the final furlongs finishing 6th. The fall at Ayr was very nasty and I don't know the extent of the injury he sustained, but he traveled well lto and I think he could be right back to his best today. I trust top trainer to have him ready, horse gets his trip and has the talented Felix De Giles on board.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Stratford 4.05 Allformary 2pt EW - 7/2 Despite hike in the weights, I don't think she'll face anything different as opposition than she did last time at Wincanton. Same low level handicapeprs, who won't have much improvement and are just about as good as their marks. My selection bolted up lto and should still be capable of better considering the ability she's shown on the flat. Jockey offsets handy 8lbs and I expect her to run another good race today. Rated 74 on flat and with claimer's 8lbs she races off 83 over the jumps today. Probably still has at least a stone before the handicappers catches up with her. Just fingers crossed she doesn't bounce, but she didn't have a hard race lto and 2 weeks should be enough.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 What a lovely day. Alverstone well backed and actually suited by the bad watering at Newbury and the soft ground. Slips on the turn and unseats on the flat. Cool Friend EW 4th. Allformary EW 4th with front two going ridiculous pace from long way out and her stamina stretched. Larks Lad 2nd. I guess that's what follows now for the next few weeks after the good fortunes at Cheltenham :)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Hexham 4.40 Overlady 0.75pt EW - 14/1 Traveled well lto, but needed the run. Her previous race was stopped mid race and she probably still wasn't fit last time. Has won off 2lbs higher mark and was 3rd over CD in 2009. Competitive race here, but I think she'll fare better today and if she's again on the heels of the leaders like two weeks ago, she should be able to go with them this time.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Bet365 Gold Cup Mon Parrain 1pt win - 12/1 Paul Nicholls mentioned this fella could be going for the Bowl at Aintree, but I doubt it. He would like to win another handicap with him, because the way he won lto suggested he is probably a grade horse in disguise and 149 is too tempting mark to be wasted. The Sandown Gold Cup is a valuable race and I think Paul will run his new French import here. Backed today at SJ from 14/1 into 12/1 and money traded as low as 6/1 on Betfair, which suggests this is probably the race for him. It seems logical to me. The horse had no trouble over the Sandown rail fences on his British debut and looked natural over them. He seemed full of running up the hill, which suggests he'll stay the extra half mile. With Junior going to Ascot and Kauto Star to Punchestown, I think this opens the door for this young and progressive french import. A bit of a gamble, but if he runs here, I think he'll take all the beating.