Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Cheltenham 5.40 Falcon Island/Paintball/American Art combination tricast 6 x 0.25pt - 1.5pt staked All three are well handicapped and I couldn't split them, so decided to play the combo. Falcon Island's run behind Topolski reads pretty well and he won his last novice in a good style. A lot of improvement for today's handicap expected. Paintball was my fancy in the Fred Winter, but was keen and made mistakes. Still a horse with a future and should be given another chance. American Art hasn't been seen for 2 years, but beat Dantari in his only novice to date and on flat form seems to be ahead of the handicapper.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Ffos Las 3.45 My Shamwari 1pt win - 15/2

I knew I would regret it leaving him out today! Drifted to some ridiculous prices as well. Still Secret Dancer ran well and I'm happy with the place.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Tricky card at Cheltenham today. The ones I like most are all exposed and when that happens, it usually means "stay away from the racing". Backing exposed horses ain't very wise in the long run, so no bet for me today. Some good races though and should be an enjoyable afternoon nevertheless.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Spring Cup Saint Pierre 1pt win - 9/1 WH

Bravo Echo 0.75pt win - 16/1 Lads Really impressive looking horse, who has a lot of scope and should continue improving. Ran to a mark of 100 in his last race being an eased down winner with Lowther finishing 2nd, but flattered with the 1L distance. Could've been 5L if Luke Morris wanted to. 1,1 form figures since gelding operation and if he was with a top trainer, I would have made him a pretty big bet. Michael Attwater has only 2% strike-rate with turf runners in the past 5 years and it's worrying that this horse comes here after a break, but with Callan booked and 16/1 on offer, I have to play. Good pace on the turf will suit this strong traveller and he's value in my book.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Ayr 3.25 Lease Lend 0.75pt EW - 16/1 I'msingingtheblues is yet to prove he stays 2m4f. Nikos Extra won a relatively easy race lto and is 10lb up in the weights for that. Watch MY Back, Osric and Door Boy all have a question or two to answer and that's why I'll go EW on the Tim Easterby gelding, who was disappoining last two starts, but bolted up off just 2lb lower in January. Jumping wasn't good and I'll just excuse the runs and give him a chance today. Handles good ground and stays the trip. At 16/1 he seems overpriced for me.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Wolve 5.50 Barton Bounty 1pt win - 3/1 Given bad rides by Hanagan and Mulrenan, but Makin won on him quite well on penultimate outing. Mulrenan did everything wrong lto and good apprentice takes the ride today in a weak race. I think he's still few pounds ahead of the handicapper and is worth a bet at the price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Spring Cup

Saint Pierre 1pt win - 9/1 WH Bravo Echo 0.75pt win - 16/1 Lads

Signor Verdi 0.5pt win - 20/1 Bet365, Lads Brick Red 0.25pt win - 12/1 VC Captial Attraction 0.25pt win - 20/1 gen Suited And Booted 0.25pt win - 14/1 Bet365 Signor Verdi looks unexposed horse and finished 5th behind Brick Red on his last start. The 10f at Sandown and the Chester run can be excused imo and he should have more to offer. Brick Red was very progressive last year, but would have liked Probert on to make him a bet. Not a fan of Jimmy Fortune and will only save. Capital Attraction was highly tried as a 3yo and is still very lightly raced. Warrants respect at the price. Suited And Booted is very much like Brick Red, but Hannon is not really one for me in these events. Still the horse didn't do much as 2yo, but imporved as a 3yo and I'll save on him, because he could still be on the up this season. 3pts staked overall on the race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Signor Verdi 0.5pt win - 20/1 Signor Verdi 0.25pt win - 16/1 Adding 0.25pt, because I really like this horse tomorrow and I actually make him the best chance in the race with the Cumani horses usually needing a run.

[mileni4uk]

Ayr 3.25 Always Right 1pt win - 9/1 (antepost) Always Right 1pt win - 10/1 Tote Be There In Five 1pt win - 22/1 Ouzbeck 1pt win - 16/1 Chicago Grey 0.75pt win - 6/1 Lads Minella Four Star 0.25pt win - 14/1 Always Right has always been my main fancy for this race. James Revely did everything to save as much as possible lto and delivered him late. Won a lot easier than the winning margin suggests. In the end it didn't matter, because he's running 3lb out of the handicap now. I still think he's a 150ish horse and could also be a major player for Aintree next season. My 2nd fancy in the race is Be There In Five, who ran really well at Cheltenham off level weights with Beshabar and Chicago Grey. Will get 4lbs and 8lbs here and could be a lot closer to them this time. Certainly doesn't deserve to be such a big price and only a slight improvement will be enough to get him involved in the finish. Ouzbeck's season has been geared all winter towards this race and the Summer National (race he won last year). Wasn't put in the Cheltenham race behind Midnight Chase until late and had a recent run over hurdles to sharpen him up. Off only 5lb higher than his summer national win, he seems overpriced. Chicago Grey should confirm form with Beshabar despite 5lb difference and I'm saving my stake on him. Minella Four Star has really blossomed with Pipe this year and is also worth a small saver, because he could still have more to offer. 5pts staked on the race overall.

[jaysright]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 cheers for the info

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Ayr 2.50 Nearby 0.75pt EW - 8/1 3rd in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, but carried a lot of weight. Better race here and will be off just 10-10. Should confirm form with Cockney Trucker and meets Via Galilei on better terms, so could reverse Aintree form. Sanctuaire has been a disappointment. Overturn and Mille Chief have quite a bit to carry. Hunterview is a big danger, but I don't think he deserves to be a 5/1 shot. Nearby seems to be the value bet in the race and the flat 2m on good ground are his conditions.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Ayr 5.05 On His Own 1pt EW - 10/1 Highly tried in Champion Bumper and NH Chase on two consecutive festivals. Won his chase in January beating Nine De Sivola, but disappointing next time out at Wetherby. Didn't jump with fluency and will have to improve on this. I think the talented Paul Gallagher will get him jumping today and the handicap mark is very lenient. The only doubt for me is the sometimes erratic jumping, but off 115 with fantastic 5lb claimer on board I have to be on, because he's very well handicapped and could go close down in class today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Very disappointing today, but very happy I still broke on profit. Spring Cup was a terrible race. No lightly raced and unexposed horse anywhere near the front. Then Nearby traveling well, asked for an effort too soon and probably over the top after a long season. Gave up on Always Right Each-Way at the last minute this morning and decided to back few horses win only. Given too much to do by Revely and in the Scottish National they never come back, so he was always going to struggle to pick them up. Thankfully Paul Gallagher rode a fantastic race in the 5.05 and produced +2.25 profit on the day. Definitely a jockey to follow.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Towcester 3.10 Haarth Sovereign 1pt EW - 17/2 WH In a hurry, so just very quick. Looks well handicapped on flat form and will love quick ground and two miles. Yard in form.

[gregprowt]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Towcester 3.10 Haarth Sovereign 1pt EW - 17/2 WH In a hurry, so just very quick. Looks well handicapped on flat form and will love quick ground and two miles. Yard in form.

nice one again fella, I only got SP, great price that :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Cheers mate :notworthy

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Fontwell 3.50 Troy Tempest 1pt win - 2/1 Promising chasing debut, where he made a mistake and had to settle for 3rd. Looks a chaser and I expect improvemement today. The Twiston-Davies horse is still a maiden and struggles of his current mark. Ere Alfie won well lto, but was flattered by the winning margin and might struggle with today's mark and conceding top weight. My selection should be well handicapped and improving and I'd make him an Evens favorite here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Pontefract 2.40 Bestwecan 1pt win - 5/2 Given a bad ride by De Sousa lto, when he seemed to do too much in front and got headed by 3 horses in the final furlong. Fallon takes over today and he boost a very good record for the stable. Horse should be improving and looks well handicapped.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Troy Tempest/Bestwecan 0.5pt EW double - 2/1 & 5/2

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Bet365 Gold Cup The Last Derby 1.5pt EW - 20/1 Sky Tote SpBet A bit of a gamble here, because he's entered in the Irish National too, but very well supported today, which suggests he might be coming over for this prize. Has done it in the past, when winning a valuable Ascot listed handicap over 3m. Ran really well in the Cork National on unsuitable heavy ground, where he looked the winner 2 out, but just got outstayed in the end. I don't think he is a doubtful stayer despite his sire being a sprinter. Stayed the Cork 3m4f well and won over 3m at Ascot. Still a young horse and the good ground will suit him. Barry will probably ride again. I think he has a lot more to offer and is still relatively unexposed. Would be surprised if he's not competitive off 138. Goes really well fresh and has a very big chance in a race, where many have had a long season and would probably be over the top.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Bet365 Gold Cup The Last Derby 1.5pt EW - 20/1 Sky Tote SpBet

Got this one totally wrong. They were actually waiting for non runners in the Irish National, so he can run there. Sneaked in as 25th from 25 today and will run there. But with so many winners antepost this season, few of these are not a problem. Still gutted though, because he would have met exposed horses in the Sandown race, while he might be up against it in the Irish National. Aye, what can you do. Can't have them all running when attacking antepost markets.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 A bit of a break for me. Might have a bet tomorrow, but not sure at the moment. Month is about +65pt , will run results in the next few days. Taking a break from betting is not always for the bad runs. Good runs also require time off sometimes. Every year I try to get interested in the flat, but I fail miserably. Just can't possibly bet on races, where Dandy and Fahey horses win, when they have absolutely no chance on the form book. So until I figure out an angle on it, I won't be having much punting on the flat. And flat jockeys get on my nerves too much. :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Newmarket 3.50 Tiddliwinks 0.75pt EW - 14/1 Lads Holland and Spencer gave him some stinkers last year and he was unlucky with the draw a few times as well. Still 9lbs better off on the AW and he clearly acts on turf. Trainer with 2 winners today and Phil Makin on board a big positive. Might need it, but he is a well handicapped horse and I'm gonna play. The 14/1 at Ladbrokes seems rather big.

[mileni4uk]

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Guinness Gold Cup Kempes 1.5pt EW - 5/1 Bet365 NRNB No idea what happened at Cheltenham, but he has disappointed twice there and he probably just hates the track. Was electrtic at Pucnhestown last year beating China Rock. Has the beating of Joncol on this year's form. Nacarat has never been a true Grade 1 horse for me and with only Kato to beat, I think Kempes is a great EW bet to nothing. These days Kauto actually needs more than 40 days to recuperate, so he's definitely one to take on at 5/4 imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Kempton 4.00 All Action 1pt EW - 6/1 Trashed Momkinzain by 11L in Epsom maiden last year. The Mick Channon horse won his maiden in February and won a decent handicap this weekend. 6th from 15 on seasonal reappearance at Newbury, where he traveled like the winner, but didn't find much. Cecil's were needing their run at the time and I expect him to strip fitter today and be competitive off his current mark.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Kempton 4.00 All Action 1pt EW - 6/1 Trashed Momkinzain by 11L in Epsom maiden last year. The Mick Channon horse won his maiden in February and won a decent handicap this weekend. 6th from 15 on seasonal reappearance at Newbury, where he traveled like the winner, but didn't find much. Cecil's were needing their run at the time and I expect him to strip fitter today and be competitive off his current mark.

That's why I hate flat racing. Slow break means even the best horse always has an uphill task once he's dropped out last :puke

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 4.55 Johnny McGeeney 0.5pt EW - 12/1 VC Even if he looks a 2nd string, I like him and he should improve for first time handicap. The horse that beat him in one of his maidens has won twice since. Ruby can't do 10-0, so he's on the other Mullins horse, but I would rate them with pretty much equal chances here and my selection is overpriced.

[gregprowt]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 :nana:nana:nana beauty mate :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Thanks mate :ok Punchestown 6.40 Apt Approach 1pt EW - 8/1 Boyle Been hard to train according to trainer, but might be in his favour since he's coming here fresh. Ran a very good 2nd at Leopardstown in January last year when 2nd to Roberto Goldback. Beat China Rock and Jessies Dream, so the form is pretty solid. Paul Townend had a bad fall today and might be forced to miss his rides tomorrow, which is a shame. Don't know if connections will switch Ruby from Scotsirish, because the latter has a good chance too. Regardless of the jockey, I think Apt Approach is well handicapped off 137 and 8/1 looks decent.