Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 3.40 Laughing Boy 0.75pt EW - 11/1 SJ, 10/1 VC Lads Fred Interesting horse, who is rated 85 on the flat and on that form should be well handicapped over hurdles. Not the most straightforward though and his win rate proves it. Tried in competitive race lto, but this is his grade and I'm willing to have a punt on him today today, because handicap mark could be workable. Danny Mullins a very good rider and rides for his uncle here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Southwell 6.15 Freedom Flyer 1pt EW - 7/1 Boyle Fred Improved for new trip lto when looked to be going well, but didn't last in the final furlong. Looked as if he didn't stay, but the jockey took it up too early imo and that was the main reason he didn't fininsh his race. Silvestre takes over today and trainer is in very good form. I make him a decent bet at the price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Punchestown 6.40 Apt Approach 1pt EW - 8/1 Boyle Been hard to train according to trainer, but might be in his favour since he's coming here fresh. Ran a very good 2nd at Leopardstown in January last year when 2nd to Roberto Goldback. Beat China Rock and Jessies Dream, so the form is pretty solid. Paul Townend had a bad fall today and might be forced to miss his rides tomorrow, which is a shame. Don't know if connections will switch Ruby from Scotsirish, because the latter has a good chance too. Regardless of the jockey, I think Apt Approach is well handicapped off 137 and 8/1 looks decent.

That was just ridiculous. Townend injured. Then I get massive prices on Betfair. A bit too fresh early, because he hasn't been racing lately. Then loose horse impeded him and he's even more keen. Despite drift he has way too much in hand to be competitive and win the race ....... and he falls at the last. :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

That was just ridiculous. Townend injured. Then I get massive prices on Betfair. A bit too fresh early' date=' because he hasn't been racing lately. Then loose horse impeded him and he's even more keen. Despite drift he has way too much in hand to be competitive and win the race ....... and he falls at the last. :lol[/quote'] Yup :wall I reckon he'd have held on too. Scotsirish isn't exactly a horse you'd associate with flying over the top on the run-in...

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Yup :wall I reckon he'd have held on too. Scotsirish isn't exactly a horse you'd associate with flying over the top on the run-in...

With the weight difference, I'd think so. He seemed to have stretched them.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

With the weight difference' date=' I'd think so. He seemed to have stretched them.[/quote'] Oh well, bad luck. Good job Kornati Kid was poor at Cheltenham, 'cos I had them both in a double. Would have been gutted had KK won.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Newton Abbot 3.05 Peppertree Lane 1pt EW - 12/1 Boyle Former very ueful horse on the flat. Been a bit reluctant hurdler every time I've seen him, but change of yard and visor applied are positives and if he fancies it, he could go close today. Yard hasn't hit the ground running, but is usually one to follow in summer jumping. The price looks generous enough.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punch 3.40 Rattan 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Like many others of Willie's this week, this one looks 2nd string on paper, but could be the best chance. Will like ground and trip and despite the competitive nature of the race, I'm not surprised they are running him in this race instead of a handicap. Used to be 90 rated horse on flat and is stone better than his stablemate in that department. Only because Ruby has chosen Bagber, he is 6/1 and my selection is such a big price. The two market leaders will be tough to beat, but Rattan is overpriced and worth a few quid imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 5.30 Mikael D'Haguenet 0.5pt win - 20/1 Boyle Only a speculative bet here, but I've always wanted to see him back over hurdles. He clearly hated chasing and I don't know why Willie didin't switch him earlier. Quevega will be hard to beat, but if Mikael decides he is in love with the game once again, he might run her close. The odds are big enough to take a chance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 6.05 Alfa Beat 0.5pt win - 4/1 Fred Sir Vincent 0.75pt win - 7/1 Bet365 Kerb Appeal 0.75pt win - 12/1 gen Alfa Beat has to be a saver here, because he is very well treated on his chasing form. Sir Vinvent probably should've won lto and not surprised Ruby is on him of all Mullins' 6 contesting in the race. Kerb Appeal ran really well lto when I backed, but his run came too late and the winner of the race had enough of a weight difference to beat him. He's an improving horse though and I wouldn't be surprised if he runs well at a price here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 4.15 Tawaagg 0.75pt EW - 6/1 Not a particularly strong race and Tawaagg is unexposed enough to be of interest for me. A good jumper and with Ruby on, I have no worries about him being short of experience in a big field handicap. Not a fan of Dr Whizz and don't really like his form either, while the rest don't look anything special. My selection should have enough improvement to be competitive off this mark.

[gregprowt]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Punchestown 6.05 Alfa Beat 0.5pt win - 4/1 Fred Sir Vincent 0.75pt win - 7/1 Bet365 Kerb Appeal 0.75pt win - 12/1 gen Alfa Beat has to be a saver here, because he is very well treated on his chasing form. Sir Vinvent probably should've won lto and not surprised Ruby is on him of all Mullins' 6 contesting in the race. Kerb Appeal ran really well lto when I backed, but his run came too late and the winner of the race had enough of a weight difference to beat him. He's an improving horse though and I wouldn't be surprised if he runs well at a price here.

who's the man :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy great shout (again!!) mate :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Thanks, mate. That was payback from Casey for Apt Approach :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 4.55 Thegreatjohnbrowne 0.5pt win - 7/2 gen Blazing Tempo 1pt win - 7/1 Boyle Hampshire Express 0.5pt win - 28/1 SJ Thegreatjohnbrowne is unexposed and could be very well handicapped here, so I'll save my stake on him. Blazing Tempo gets a lot of weight from Wishful Thinking and might be able to reverse Jewson form. Ruby should be able to ride her held up and save enough in the locker for the fininsh. She's still a suspect stayer over this distance for me, but I think she's well handicapped. Hampshire Express is a tricky ride, but is a very talented horse and he could be well handicapped too. Certainly worth a few quid at the price. 2pt staked overall.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 6.05 So Young/First Lieutenant - 1pt straight fc I think this is a 2 horse race, but at the prices, I don't think I'll be playing. The bet is the forecast with So Young reversing form with First Lieutenant. I still think he would've won the Neptune had he not made the mistake at the last. 11/8 probably a good price, but is not really my type of bet, so I'll just have 1pt staked on the forecast instead and hope it pays about 7/2.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 4.15 Uncle Junior 0.75pt EW - 7/1 Forgot to tip this fella. Imroving over fences and could have a lot in hand here. If he manages a clear round I think he'll be tough to beat. Most of these look pretty much exposed and Ruby on a positive.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Ascot 7.35 Zigato 1pt win - 3/1 Been waiting for this fella to go up in trip. I think he is a very well handicapped horse, who'll love the 2m around here. Advisor ran really well last time, but I'm still not sure about his attitude. Pretty much the whole field is exposed and if my selection improves the way I expect him to over this trip, he would be tough to beat.

[silviayjose]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 :cheers:cheers

Punchestown 4.15 Uncle Junior 0.75pt EW - 7/1 Forgot to tip this fella. Imroving over fences and could have a lot in hand here. If he manages a clear round I think he'll be tough to beat. Most of these look pretty much exposed and Ruby on a positive.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Haydock 3.40 Tatispout 0.75pt EW - 10/1 Remember Now 0.5pt win - 11/2 Longsdon's horses usually get backed, so I'm gonna tip this one now. Could end up 7/1 in the morning, because she is an improving mare and I expect a lot of support for her. Travels really well in her races and handicapper might still not have her right. The favorite is also lightly raced and is a half brother to Binocular. Beat Tatispout conceding weight at Stratford and meets her on far better terms. Tricky race with few unexposed types, but I think these two are the ones with the most scope.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Haydock 3.05 Extreme Impact 0.75pt win - 10/1 Doctor Foxtrot 0.75pt win - 14/1 Liberate 0.75pt win - 14/1 Benbane Head 0.75pt win - 14/1 Extreme Impact beat Connectivity lto, who won twice since, so the form looks very solid. Doctor Foxtrot contested some competitive races lately and is lightly raced. On better terms with Five Star Wilsham now and is probably ahead of the handicapper. Liberate won this race 3 years ago off 8lb higher mark. Had a decent run after a long layoff lto and should strip fitter here. Benbane Head has been running well of late with tongue tie on and gets a valuable 3lb claim. Still lightly raced and could have more to offer. 3pt staked overall.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Haydock 3.40 Tatispout 0.75pt EW - 10/1 Remember Now 0.5pt win - 11/2

Higgy's Ragazzo 0.5pt win - 16/1 Pires 0.25pt win - 10/1 Ballybriggan 0.25pt win - 12/1 The Henderson 2nd string is very lightly raced and was a decent horse on the flat. AP on the JP horse by default, but I'm sure he could hav ridden this fella if his retainer didn't have a runner. Worth a bet at the price imo. Pires is a 90+ horse on the flat, so if the trainer is trying (which is never possible to tell), he could be well in here. Saver on him. The John Quinn yardstick won his novice easily lto and didn't get a raise for that and is also worth a saver. 3pt staked in total on the race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 4.25 Twinlight 1pt win - 8/1 French import, who won his sole start on Irish soil albeit luckily. I think he will confirm that form and should improve here. With the main principals coming after a long and hard season, I'll gamble and go with the Willie Mullins horse, because the price is decent and there should be more to come from him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 3.45 Veiled 1pt EW - 7/1 VC Improving mare, who won the listed handicap at Cheltenham lto with a bit to spare. Was very decent on the flat and there could still be a lot to come from her. It looks a competitive race, but she should confirm form with Alasi. Morning Supreme is a danger, but she comes here after disappointing season over fences and is too short in the market imo. The Fred Winter winner What A Charm should also run well, but I just think the Henderson mare has a lot of scope and should be capable of much better.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Punchestown 5.00 Shakervilz 0.75pt EW - 9/1 Bet365 5 placs on offer at Bet365. Decent novice last season, who came after one year off the track to finish 7th in the Irish National. Should strip fitter here and will be therabouts if he doesn't bounce. He usually takes his racing well, so he should be fine. Beautiful Sound will probably be tough to beat, but is on the short side because of that Cheltenham finish, where he got outpaced and ran on to finish 3rd flying up the hill. Shakervliz is still on the up and could be the one picking up the pieces if the fav was flattered by his finishing effort at Cheltenham.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 +9pts profit on Punchestown with 40% yield. Not anywhere near last year's 300% :lol, but I'll never have so many winners as last time. Still it could've been a lot better with Apt Approach and Veiled both extremely unlucky, but month is +23 at the moment, so no complaints whatsoever.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Plumpton 2.10 Jimmy The Brave 0.5pt EW - 100/1 Weak maiden hurdle with the market principals rated in the 100-110 region. This race wouldn't take much winning and I'm going with the outsider, who didn't go anywhere lto, but was too keen and just didn't stay the 2m3f trip. On his debut he finished 4th over 1m6f and showed some promise. If the hurdles make him settle and concentrate, he could outrun his price today and might give me a run for the money. Worth a gamble I reckon. Could be a massive price on Betfair.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Plumpton 4.40 Molanna View 0.75pt EW - 10/1 Lads Going well lto and traded short in running, but somehow managed to be out of the first three. Has a strange way of jumping the bigger obstacles, but I think he could improve today with Jack Doyle back in the saddle. Like I said last time, he is by Old Vic and his game will be chasing. Not a particularly strong contest here and with 8 runners, the EW bet at 10/1 looks a nice opportunity.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011

Plumpton 4.40 Molanna View 0.75pt EW - 10/1 Lads

This horse does my head in. Again traveling and again with a chance and then somehow managing not to place. There must be a breathing problem.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Perth 6.40 Apache Blue 1pt EW - 13/2 WH By Presenting and I think he's been crying out for step up in trip. Won on his penultimate start and ran well in 3rd lto, but just found the 2m4f at Musselburgh too sharp. Return to more galloping track will suit and trip should bring out his stamina.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 & Flat 2011 Perth 8.10 Cabbyl Doo 1pt EW - 9/1 Only just beaten by Prince Tam, who bolted up since. On better terms and should reverse form. Ran really well lto when making a bad mistake early. Brian Hughes one of the best jockeys in the north and big improvement on Aspell. Still lightly raced and could improve. Meets mainly exposed types here and with yard on form, I think 9/1 is generous.