JulioArca Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! You should receive aces once every 221 hands. You have received Aces once every 218.2286 hands - slightly more (3 times) than expected... Yep its definitely rigged then.....:) The proportion you win cannot be checked - that depends how you play them... Okay let me check how many times they were allin preflop...:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! I assume "win" includes when you get everybody to fold? If so, it sounds reasonable that they'll win less often in tournaments, as you'll have more hands where a short-stacked player gets all-in against your aces and gets lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! You should receive aces once every 221 hands. You have received Aces once every 218.2286 hands - slightly more (3 times) than expected. The proportion you win cannot be checked - that depends how you play them... Just slightly more than likely I still want to hear from the poor guy who has played 2.7 million hands and never been dealt pkt Aces just to balance up the books. What was the final score in the benchmaring project for pkt aces GaF? If it was less than once every 215 hands I'll shut up;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! If it was less than once every 215 hands I'll shut up;) You mean more? Will look...... EDIT No - you mean less - you were right :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! Benchmarking: Total Hands: 92,981 Expected number of aces: 421 (once in every 221 hands) Actual number of aces: 432 (once in every 215.2338 hands) Does that mean you stop going on about Aces now then? :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! less than once every 215 would be close enough to normal more than once every 215 hands proves for ever that online poker is rigged. I'll shut up if its not rigged;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! Benchmarking: Total Hands: 92,981 Expected number of aces: 421 (once in every 221 hands) Actual number of aces: 432 (once in every 215.2338 hands) Does that mean you stop going on about Aces now then? :tongue2 Naaaaaaaw samples not big enough, close call though(I posted during your post) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! No-one in the benchmarking made a profit smaller than 240 BB/100 with their Aces :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! I've never bought the "It's fixed!" claims. I haven't seen anything while playing that would convince me. But to be honest I've never really tested the claims. Maybe I'm just unobservant, and there really are far more bad beats than there should be. :unsure So to put my mind at rest, I've extracted the hands from the PokerStars hand histories on my computer where exactly two players see the flop and one of them is all-in preflop, and I'm going to do some simple statistical tests to see if there are more bad beats than you should expect in this sample. There are almost 700 hands, so if "JokerStars" really is as obviously fixed as they tell me, then this should be plenty to pick up something dodgy. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! I've never bought the "It's fixed!" claims. I haven't seen anything while playing that would convince me. But to be honest I've never really tested the claims. Maybe I'm just unobservant, and there really are far more bad beats than there should be. :unsure So to put my mind at rest, I've extracted the hands from the PokerStars hand histories on my computer where exactly two players see the flop and one of them is all-in preflop, and I'm going to do some simple statistical tests to see if there are more bad beats than you should expect in this sample. There are almost 700 hands, so if "JokerStars" really is as obviously fixed as they tell me, then this should be plenty to pick up something dodgy. :ok OK, finished : I looked at how many hands the preflop favourite won compared to how many he "should" have won (counting a split pot as half a win). I did this for all hands which were not exactly 50/50, all hands where the favourite was better than 60% to win, better than 70% to win, better than 80% to win. For each of these, I've listed the number of hands, the actual number of hands won by the favourite, and the expected number of hands that the favourite should have won. ------------------------------------------ > 50% equity number of hands: 693 actual wins: 472.5 expected wins: 459.287 > 60% equity number of hands: 459 actual wins: 338.5 expected wins: 330.002 > 70% equity number of hands: 238 actual wins: 192 expected wins: 185.218 > 80% equity number of hands: 108 actual wins: 93 expected wins: 90.067 ------------------------------------------------ So at every level there were slightly fewer bad beats than you should expect (though well within normal statistical fluctuations). Oh well! How disappointing! :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! OK, finished : I looked at how many hands the preflop favourite won compared to how many he "should" have won (counting a split pot as half a win). I did this for all hands which were not exactly 50/50, all hands where the favourite was better than 60% to win, better than 70% to win, better than 80% to win. For each of these, I've listed the number of hands, the actual number of hands won by the favourite, and the expected number of hands that the favourite should have won. ------------------------------------------ > 50% equity number of hands: 693 actual wins: 472.5 expected wins: 459.287 > 60% equity number of hands: 459 actual wins: 338.5 expected wins: 330.002 > 70% equity number of hands: 238 actual wins: 192 expected wins: 185.218 > 80% equity number of hands: 108 actual wins: 93 expected wins: 90.067 ------------------------------------------------ So at every level there were slightly fewer bad beats than you should expect (though well within normal statistical fluctuations). Oh well! How disappointing! :sad Not dissapointing at all, but futher proof that online poker is rigged. Just like we are dealt more aces than normal, the aces hold up more often than normal now we can add that the best hand wins more often than normal. What better way to ensure the return of the uninformed than to make them think their decisions are more often correct than they should be. I am amazed just how skillfull the sites are at ensuring that the feel good factor remains just within normal statistical fluctuations in all aspects.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dazdiamonds Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! not a big fan of the place, but i don't think its rigged etc. If i did i just wound not play there. i agree with those of you about those crazy hands that seem to happen way too often at times. after witnessing some crazy stuff in the last few days i did a google search for jokerstars and the first one i looked at was on blindbetpoker[pokerstars is rigged]. its quite an interesting read with some interesting theories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Quiet Man Posted May 29, 2009 Share Posted May 29, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! not a big fan of the place, but i don't think its rigged etc. If i did i just wound not play there. i agree with those of you about those crazy hands that seem to happen way too often at times. after witnessing some crazy stuff in the last few days i did a google search for jokerstars and the first one i looked at was on blindbetpoker[pokerstars is rigged]. its quite an interesting read with some interesting theories. I'm not going to bother researching but can you explain why any Company that is making millions would need to rig their site and risk being closed down?......after all they don't care who wins as they make the money on entry fees and rake!!:\ Please don't give me the same old pish about wanting to keep the low stake players so a few good hands goes their way to hold on to them!:lol:lol:lol Just a pointless thread in my opinion? TQM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeordieGaz Posted May 29, 2009 Author Share Posted May 29, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! I'm not going to bother researching but can you explain why any Company that is making millions would need to rig their site and risk being closed down?......after all they don't care who wins as they make the money on entry fees and rake!!:\ that's exactly why they would 'rig' their site! The more players a company has, the more rake and fees they receive. If the site gives players an equal amount of luck then they are going to hold on to these players and hence more rake and fees! ;) Just a pointless thread in my opinion? Disagree as I think its interesting to actually see how many people think sites are rigged. The fact that this has had such a big response suggests that there has to be some mileage in claims that sites are rigged? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slick mick Posted May 29, 2009 Share Posted May 29, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! The fact that this has had such a big response suggests that there has to be some mileage in claims that sites are rigged? :unsure Or that there are a lot of delusional people out there who aren't taking there medication:tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Quiet Man Posted May 29, 2009 Share Posted May 29, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! We'll agree to disagree Gaz!:lol Here's my latest departure....if this was Stars, would it be fixed.....I could post hands like these every night but I'd bore everyone to tears (including me) :cry One thing I notice about this Forum is that the players I regard as good players NEVER post so called bad beats as it is the normal way for them to be knocked out and they know they will get paid off in the long term!:ok TQM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 29, 2009 Share Posted May 29, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! One thing I notice about this Forum is that the players I regard as good players NEVER post so called bad beats as it is the normal way for them to be knocked out and they know they will get paid off in the long term!:ok +1 :ok I genuinely feel that there is a huge correlation between the amount someone moans about bad beats/poker being rigged etc (whether on PL or in the chatbox of the poker room) abnd their skill level - basically those who moan dont understand the true nature of the game. When I'm playing against someone who's moaning in the chat box, they get my full focus because I feel they're highly likely to be the soft money at the table. It's the quiet ones that worry me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulioArca Posted May 29, 2009 Share Posted May 29, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! We'll agree to disagree Gaz!:lol Here's my latest departure....if this was Stars, would it be fixed.....I could post hands like these every night but I'd bore everyone to tears (including me) :cry One thing I notice about this Forum is that the players I regard as good players NEVER post so called bad beats as it is the normal way for them to be knocked out and they know they will get paid off in the long term!:ok TQM Run of the mill - he had more chips than you - odds on he would hit ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! I'm not going to bother researching but can you explain why any Company that is making millions would need to rig their site and risk being closed down?......after all they don't care who wins as they make the money on entry fees and rake!!:\ TQM A bit like Absolute/Ultimate were closed down over the super user affair? Theres no governing body so no site will ever get closed down. That incident just proved that "rigging" is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgc100969 Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! Poker sites aren't rigged its simply a question of maths. When you play live you average about 1/3 of the number of hands you will see playing online. Also people make more calls as they can just sign up for another tourney within a few minutes. However if you get knocked out in a live casino game then thats it for the night so you fold hands you might jave called online. So the combination of more hands and more calls equals more beats that still happen live but the cards responsible were already folded. How many times have you heard someone say at a live event I nearly called there but folded and flopped the straight against ur AA. Even if they were rigged you wouldnt know because it would just average out over time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! Poker sites aren't rigged its simply a question of maths. When you play live you average about 1/3 of the number of hands you will see playing online. . So why do you get more pkt aces online than simple maths suggest you should? And any way they hold up more often than they should as well so thats that theory blown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgc100969 Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! So why do you get more pkt aces online than simple maths suggest you should? And any way they hold up more often than they should as well so thats that theory blown. Ur sample size is too small u would need several hundred thousands or even millions of hands to be sure on such as small chance of hitting aa. Get urself a good stats book to give u an idea of a suitable sample size but around 500,000 would be a minimum and even then is not that good. When you have a sample size of 10million hands i will believe you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! Must only be rigged at a higher stakes games, and cash games. PokerStars Game #28790467480: Tournament #167818882, $0.25+$0.00 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (200/400) - 2009/05/30 11:48:02 ET Table '167818882 2' 9-max Seat #3 is the button Seat 1: Egorfili (26736 in chips) Seat 2: saiygri (12825 in chips) Seat 3: ddswan (16745 in chips) Seat 4: pasteurisi (5356 in chips) Seat 5: ANDRÁŠ1 (47346 in chips) Seat 6: laszlo_75 (5560 in chips) Seat 7: ruleb1979 (44491 in chips) Seat 8: ProFritzi (20941 in chips) Egorfili: posts the ante 50 saiygri: posts the ante 50 ddswan: posts the ante 50 pasteurisi: posts the ante 50 ANDRÁŠ1: posts the ante 50 laszlo_75: posts the ante 50 ruleb1979: posts the ante 50 ProFritzi: posts the ante 50 pasteurisi: posts small blind 200 ANDRÁŠ1: posts big blind 400 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to ruleb1979 [Kh Kc] laszlo_75: calls 400 ruleb1979: raises 1200 to 1600 ProFritzi: raises 2000 to 3600 Egorfili: folds saiygri: folds ddswan: folds pasteurisi: folds ANDRÁŠ1: calls 3200 laszlo_75: folds ruleb1979: raises 4400 to 8000 saiygri said, "go" ProFritzi: raises 12891 to 20891 and is all-in ANDRÁŠ1: folds ruleb1979: calls 12891 *** FLOP *** [9c 7h 5c] *** TURN *** [9c 7h 5c] [9d] *** RIVER *** [9c 7h 5c 9d] [4s] *** SHOW DOWN *** ruleb1979: shows [Kh Kc] (two pair, Kings and Nines) ProFritzi: shows [Qd Qs] (two pair, Queens and Nines) ruleb1979 collected 46382 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 46382 | Rake 0 Board [9c 7h 5c 9d 4s] Seat 1: Egorfili folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: saiygri folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: ddswan (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: pasteurisi (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 5: ANDRÁŠ1 (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 6: laszlo_75 folded before Flop Seat 7: ruleb1979 showed [Kh Kc] and won (46382) with two pair, Kings and Nines Seat 8: ProFritzi showed [Qd Qs] and lost with two pair, Queens and Nines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! Ur sample size is too small u would need several hundred thousands or even millions of hands to be sure on such as small chance of hitting aa. Get urself a good stats book to give u an idea of a suitable sample size but around 500,000 would be a minimum and even then is not that good. When you have a sample size of 10million hands i will believe you. I don't believe reputable poker sites deal too many pocket aces, but the sample size you would need depends on HOW often you were dealt pocket aces. For example, over 500,000 hands, being dealt 2% more pocket aces than you should be would be nothing out of the ordinary, but if you were dealt 5% more then that would be a little surprising, and if you were dealt 20% more then that would be definite cause for suspicion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! When you have a sample size of 10million hands i will believe you. I'm up for testing this :ok I'll play a 500 hands a day and will report back on 2nd March 2064 :ok (You all think I'm joking dont you? :tongue2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wurzel133 Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! I'm up for testing this :ok I'll play a 500 hands a day and will report back on 2nd March 2064 :ok (You all think I'm joking dont you? :tongue2) no i dont:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! (You all think I'm joking dont you? :tongue2) What? About only playing 500 hands a day? :) BTW, in my PokerStars hand histories, I got 27 pocket aces in 6335 hands, and "should" have got about 28.665: I wuz robbed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! By the way, I was looking for the thread from some time ago where glceud's Poker Tracker (?) stats showed an unusual number of pocket aces, and couldn't find it. Can anybody point me to it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! By the way' date=' I was looking for the thread from some time ago where glceud's Poker Tracker (?) stats showed an unusual number of pocket aces, and couldn't find it. Can anybody point me to it?[/quote'] This thread? (from post 12) http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f63/question-62933/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgc100969 Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: Why I Hate Stars!!! I'm up for testing this :ok I'll play a 500 hands a day and will report back on 2nd March 2064 :ok (You all think I'm joking dont you? :tongue2) ok ill join u 500 a day so we can report back in 2032 :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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