Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

[jtw1]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

On 'another one' I go on it's now up to 25 pages.........:lol But over here we tend to concentrate more on 'todays racing' !

A lot of punters over there like the Ante-post side of betting imo , thats why they tend to start threads on Big races weeks if not months in advance . ps - any ideas why the 2000 Guineas market has been suspended on Betfair ???

[chris34]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas Im with Bowles on this race Xtension looks a massive price at 20/1 with lads and I'l have some of that e/w. Ground is likely to soften slightly if we get this rain down here that they talk of and that could play right into his hands, 2nd in coventry stakes at ascot then winning vintage stakes at goodwood in eyecatching fashion and certainly appeared as if this step up in could be just what he wants and proved he handles the ground when 3rd in Dewhurst last october, his turn of foot could catch several of these out.

[bowles10]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

It's good to see all the big guns have stood their ground. I cannot wait for this race now, the excitement has been building for weeks! I'm surprised there hasnt been more interest in the race though, theres only a couple of us that seem bothered and its the first classic of the season. On another forum I have started to go on they have a 22+ page thread on the Guineas :loon

i did start the "key race" threads for the jumps which was geared towards cheltenham however i must admit i felt i was talking to myself or JTW1 most of the time happy to start them up again for flat races

[jtw1]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas Happy to see the Key races posted up again and maybe starting them a few weeks early might bring in some more comments and views from different posters , can't do any harm imo . Maybe start with a Derby thread ?

[jtw1]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas 2000 Guineas --------------- 14/14 had won previously 13/14 were returned at 11/1 or under [ usually top 6 in the market] 13/14 had ran over 7 / 8f LTO 13/14 ran no more than 5 times 12/14 sires had a winning ave of between 8.7f - 11.3f [ 8.3 was the lowest ] 12/14 won LTO. 11/14 were making their seasonal debuts A couple i've 'borrowed ' from the Betfair Blog - 10/10 had a Racing Post Record [RPR] of 111+ 10/10 had NEVER fininshed out of the first 3 in ANY of their previous races There have been 0 winners of the Racing Post Trophy [ or it's predecessor] since HIGH TOP in 1971 and only one placed horse [2nd or 3rd] since 1990 has gone on to win a Classic and that was Benny The Dip. I've kept the odds stats in for this race as it's VERY unusual for an outsider to win the 1st Classic of the season so it's probably the best place to start. So it's bye-bye to ARRYS ORSE , AUDACITY OF HOPE , BUZZWORD , ELSPETH'S BOY , FAIR TRADE , FREE JUDGEMENT , GREYFRIARSCHORISTA , HEARTS OF FIRE , LORD ZENITH , MAKFI , POETS VOICE , RED JAZZ and VISCOUNT NELSON . All 9 remaining have won before but DICK TURPIN has twice finished out of the placing's. INLER has ran only once and that was over 6f. AWZAAN has never raced further than 6f [ bred to stay the mile but until he does...] CANFORD CLIFFS sires has a win average of only 7.1f , while XTENSION's sire's ave os 7.9f. ST NICHOLAS ABBEY's sire's ave is 11.6f and , of course , he won the Racing Post Trophy in front of ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL and AL ZIR. Which very nicely leaves just one runner and thats another Ballydoyle inmate in the shape of FENCING MASTER. 2 runs - 1 win and a 2nd . The win was only an AW win at Dundalk over 7f but it's his 2nd place in the Dewhurst that interests me . That particular race has proven to be a decent pointer if the winner takes his chance on the big day , the winners record when making their seasonal debuts here over the past 9 seasons is - unp , 1st , 4th , 2nd , 2nd [btn a nose] Hampered at the start he made 'relentless progress ' to be beaten a quarter of a length by stablemate BEETHOVEN over the 7f of the track he will race on Saturday . His sire's ave is 9.1f and ORATORIO [sire] won the Dewhurst and was 4th behind FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND in the 2005 2000 Guineas [ btn just under 3l]. He loved God - G/F ground An RPR Rating of 131 and making his seasonal debut here are all positives. 5pt win @ 15.0 5pt place @ 4.4

[Stevet1859]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas 2000 Guineas: Makfi 1pt e/w 33/1 Stan James Makfi may just spring a surprise at a nice price. He seems to have slipped under the radar as he does not fare well against many of the trends, however this son of Dubawi may have been underestimated. He lines up here unbeaten having won a Group 3 last time out. His sire is Dubawi and he can trace his line back to Dubai Millenium. There is every reason to hope he will stay. Dubawi won the Irish 2000 Guineas and also won on this course. The concern is he has been winning (comfortably) on soft going. However, reading the reports his trainer feels he can improve and with some better ground he just might. Over the past decade a high draw has also been an advantage and Makfi will come out of stall 15. Don't pretend to know much about the trainer - which is probably part of the reason why Makfi is 33/1. If he was still with Marcus Tregoning he would be several points shorter.

[TheLubet]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas Just a little story about Cockney Rebel. In my old job there were 2 shop's. a guy working in the other shop was up one day, i asked him if he had any horse news, he opened his wallet and showed me a docket for the 2000 guines €40 e/w Cockney Rebel. This guy would'nt spend a fine day and he had €80 on a horse. At lunch time than day i went straight to the bookies and had €20 e/w, i told all my friends and not 1 of them backed him, they were all on evens and odds cause of a tip they got. I asked him after how he knew, a family friend in sligo had connections with the Horse and said he broke a race record 3 weeks before and the only way he was going to lose was if he was shot! Can someone out there show me a docket for sat's guines! LOL. The Lubet

[mileni4uk]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas On Elusive Pimpernel at a biggish antepost price. Just considering what to do. Undecided if I should play a place bet or just cover on the fav.

[fintron]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas counting down the hours.................. :drums

[Gingertipster]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas My 100% book. St Nicholas Abbey 11/10, Elusive Pimpernel 7/1, Fencing Master 11/1, Awzaan 12/1, Canford Cliffs 20/1, Al Zir 20/1, Xtension 33/1, Inler 33/1, Hearts Of Fire 40/1, Dick Turpin 50/1, Lord Zenith 66/1, Makfi 66/1, Red Jazz 300/1, Viscount Nelson 300/1, Buzzword 300/1, Audacity Of Hope 400/1, Fair Trade 500/1, Elspeth's Boy 800/1, Greyfriarschorista 1000/1. Took 16/1 Canford Cliffs after his Coventry win last year, but have now laid it back for a certain profit. Can't see him staying the trip after weakening in the Greenham. Don't even think the 16/1 is value now. Might go in for Elusive Pimpernel and/or Fencing Master each way. See what the offers are in the morning. Possibly with my free bet from trading Canford Cliffs. Will do some analysis in the morning if I have time.

[Trotter]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas At Ginger's prices I'd take......... Canford Cliffs 20/1, Xtension 33/1, Dick Turpin 50/1, all each way Plus the tricast.........of course !

[Gingertipster]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas They are not prices I'd offer Trotter, just my idea of fair prices for each horse (prices to beat). No bookies mark up. Canford Cliffs would still be a good result for me. Decided to concentrate on the win betting. I've just taken 199/1 Lord Zenith and over 600/1 about Audacity Of Hope. And 15/1 Fencing Master. May save on Elusive Pimpernel if 8/1 is available.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas 15:05 Newmarket Elusive Pimpernel seems great each way value in this race in my opinion. Won in impressive fashion when stepped up to this grade last time out over course and distance when he landed the Dewhurst by 4 lengths. Was well beaten by today's favourite St Nicholas Abbey at Doncaster over the trip on his penultimate start but I feel my selection will appreciate today's ground more if it is to stay Good To Firm, especially since he has won on those ground conditions whereas the favourite has only won/ran on ground good or softer. Still isn't done improving in my opinion and definately could be up to the task of causing an upset. 1pt each way Elusive Pimpernel @ 7/1 (>Paddy Power - BOG)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

They are not prices I'd offer Trotter, just my idea of fair prices for each horse (prices to beat). No bookies mark up. Canford Cliffs would still be a good result for me. Decided to concentrate on the win betting. I've just taken 199/1 Lord Zenith and over 600/1 about Audacity Of Hope. And 15/1 Fencing Master. May save on Elusive Pimpernel if 8/1 is available.

Take the 12/1 available for Canford Cliffs in the Golden Jubilee before he runs tomorrow. Also Delegator might swerve the Queen Anne (with Goldi and Paco, possibly RVW aswell there). So 25/1 looks good for Delegator in the Jubilee too. Both with corals :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

My 100% book. St Nicholas Abbey 11/10, Elusive Pimpernel 7/1, Fencing Master 11/1, Awzaan 12/1, Canford Cliffs 20/1, Al Zir 20/1, Xtension 33/1, Inler 33/1, Hearts Of Fire 40/1, Dick Turpin 50/1, Lord Zenith 66/1, Makfi 66/1, Red Jazz 300/1, Viscount Nelson 300/1, Buzzword 300/1, Audacity Of Hope 400/1, Fair Trade 500/1, Elspeth's Boy 800/1, Greyfriarschorista 1000/1. Took 16/1 Canford Cliffs after his Coventry win last year, but have now laid it back for a certain profit. Can't see him staying the trip after weakening in the Greenham. Don't even think the 16/1 is value now. Might go in for Elusive Pimpernel and/or Fencing Master each way. See what the offers are in the morning. Possibly with my free bet from trading Canford Cliffs. Will do some analysis in the morning if I have time.

St Nicholas Abbey showed enough speed from the back of his field in a slowly run Racing Post to suggest he's got the speed for this. If he's equally effective on a firm surface will be difficult to beat. Worthy favourite. Elusive Pimpernel won easily in the Craven, but needed to be stoked up a fair way out to do so. Always seems lazy, though excellant attitude in a finish. A rounded action on very firm ground would be a concern. Has more improvement in him, again a worthy second fav. Canford Cliffs I backed at 16/1 immediately after the Guineas, but disappointed me at Newbury, weakening late over 7 furlongs. The way he races and breeding suggest he won't stay, change of tactics suggest even the Hannon team don't expect him to stay. Won't stay. Have traded out of most of my bet. Poor value bet this morning, should be 20/1 or more. Awzaan has stamina doubts, but less than Canford. Where as Hannon's horses don't tend to stay as far as their pedigrees suggest, Johnstone's do the opposite. Impressed in the Mill Reef at Newbury, before winning the Middle Park. Seems to settle at 6f well enough to have a reasonable chance of staying. Whether he's quite good enough is another matter. Fencing Master is over priced on two year old form, probably because he's a second string. Placed in the Dewhurst, despite having very little experience, ran green before the penny dropped and ran on on the outer. Not many Ballydoyle winners are top priced with Ladbrokes and that does worry me a little. Mike Dillon of Laddies is very close to Ballydoyle. Group 1 winner in the making, but is it here? 14/1 worth finding out each way. Vibes from Godolphin suggest a better start to the season than recent times. Both their trainers have started well. Al Zir was third to St Nicholas Abbey in the RP, some way behind. Impressed before then beating Kentucky Derby hope Awsome Act easily. Well thopught of and any market move could prove significant. Xtension was close to Fencing Master in the Dewhurst, but had far more experience than that one. Should run well, but difficult to see him improving enough. Inler one run, one impressive win, could be something or nothing. Very little experience for this. Hearts Of Fire has bags of experience, over priced on form, but difficult to see him improving enough. Dick Turpin is a nice type, held up stable companion Canford Cliffs at Newbury, but neither are sure to stay. Lord Zenith is a big type, the sort to improve a good deal at 3. Won in a bunched finish on reappearance, but came from the back in a slowly run race. Could run well at a massive price. Makfi has won 2 from 2 in France. Form is not great but could do no more than win. Doubts about the ground. Red Jazz won the Free Handicap, making all. Not sure to stay or be good enough. Buzzword was just below top class at 2 and difficult to see him improving on that. Viscount Nelson placed in a trial in Ireland when the stable were in bad form, could improve but needs to. Fallon rides. Best bred horse in the field. Audacity Of Hope finished behind Red Jazz in the Free, but not suited by the run of the race there (held up). Price under estimates his chance a little, but only a little. Elspeth's Boy impressed in only run last back end, but needs to improve an awful lot on that. Fair Trade also needs to improve, looks out of it but trainer rarely over enters horses and rarely wrong. Greyfriarschorista has had enough runs to know he isn't up to this and may be best on the all weather.

[Lucky-15]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas Just got 12's on Awzaan in laddieshad a few more quid there:hope

[Trotter]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

At Ginger's prices I'd take......... Canford Cliffs 20/1, Xtension 33/1, Dick Turpin 50/1, all each way

With 'Ginger Bookies' paying for the first four, I reckon I've cleaned up there !........... :lol

[Gingertipster]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

2000 Guineas: Makfi 1pt e/w 33/1 Stan James Makfi may just spring a surprise at a nice price. He seems to have slipped under the radar as he does not fare well against many of the trends, however this son of Dubawi may have been underestimated. He lines up here unbeaten having won a Group 3 last time out. His sire is Dubawi and he can trace his line back to Dubai Millenium. There is every reason to hope he will stay. Dubawi won the Irish 2000 Guineas and also won on this course. The concern is he has been winning (comfortably) on soft going. However, reading the reports his trainer feels he can improve and with some better ground he just might. Over the past decade a high draw has also been an advantage and Makfi will come out of stall 15. Don't pretend to know much about the trainer - which is probably part of the reason why Makfi is 33/1. If he was still with Marcus Tregoning he would be several points shorter.

Wow! Excellant pick Steve!

[Couch Potato]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

2000 Guineas: Makfi 1pt e/w 33/1 Stan James Makfi may just spring a surprise at a nice price. He seems to have slipped under the radar as he does not fare well against many of the trends, however this son of Dubawi may have been underestimated. He lines up here unbeaten having won a Group 3 last time out. His sire is Dubawi and he can trace his line back to Dubai Millenium. There is every reason to hope he will stay. Dubawi won the Irish 2000 Guineas and also won on this course. The concern is he has been winning (comfortably) on soft going. However, reading the reports his trainer feels he can improve and with some better ground he just might. Over the past decade a high draw has also been an advantage and Makfi will come out of stall 15. Don't pretend to know much about the trainer - which is probably part of the reason why Makfi is 33/1. If he was still with Marcus Tregoning he would be several points shorter.

:notworthy In the words of Andy Gray...'take a bow, son'.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

With 'Ginger Bookies' paying for the first four, I reckon I've cleaned up there !........... :lol

A win only book i'm afraid Trotter. As Stan James say in their statements: Loser. Loser. and Loser. :lol Nice picks, just not quite good enough.

[Lucky-15]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

2000 Guineas: Makfi 1pt e/w 33/1 Stan James Makfi may just spring a surprise at a nice price. He seems to have slipped under the radar as he does not fare well against many of the trends, however this son of Dubawi may have been underestimated. He lines up here unbeaten having won a Group 3 last time out. His sire is Dubawi and he can trace his line back to Dubai Millenium. There is every reason to hope he will stay. Dubawi won the Irish 2000 Guineas and also won on this course. The concern is he has been winning (comfortably) on soft going. However, reading the reports his trainer feels he can improve and with some better ground he just might. Over the past decade a high draw has also been an advantage and Makfi will come out of stall 15. Don't pretend to know much about the trainer - which is probably part of the reason why Makfi is 33/1. If he was still with Marcus Tregoning he would be several points shorter.

:notworthygreat shout steve

[Stevet1859]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas Thanks Gents..:ok Think I'll watch it again on plus 1 !!! Cheers, Steve

[ELCAKER]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas What a great pick steve - very jealous - no greater feeling than solving the puzzle with a big odds player, congratulations. :nana:nana:nana Sir Nick was too terrible to be true, a few fingers have been very badly burnt.:spank

[bowles10]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas well done Steve, a great pick :ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas Super pick Steve :notworthy

[StuSimmy]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas Brilliant stuff Steve :nana

[fintron]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas take a bow steve, great work :notworthy!

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

What a great pick steve - very jealous - no greater feeling than solving the puzzle with a big odds player, congratulations. :nana:nana:nana Sir Nick was too terrible to be true, a few fingers have been very badly burnt.:spank

Overstatement of 2010. Too terrible to be true? He was beaten by 3 lengths in a Classic over what in time will prove to be far from his optimum trip and when he hadn't had a race this season. Don't get carried away, he's still a class animal

[BillyHills]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas Well done Steve, excellent mate:clap

[markysimmo]

Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas

Thanks Gents..:ok Think I'll watch it again on plus 1 !!! Cheers, Steve

so what you fancy for tomorrow then lol ???