Epsom 22nd April

[bowles10]

5.25 EPSOM - PRIDE OF KINGS (1m 114y CLASS 5 - GOOD) Dettori is the best jockey by far at the track boasting a 23% win strike rate & 50% place strike rate. Any horse he has with the required pace seems to get the most out of the track & this one represents his best chance for me on the day. Likely to be up with the pace, the horse might just have enough early pace to get to the front & will have to try to stay there. It appeared to show those qualities when winning on fast ground at Catterick. It then finished 3rd on its last run back at that track but 8lb higher than its win. Starts the season on the same mark 74 as its last run & with Johnston also hitting a bit of form, we could get a run at a nice price. Drawn in 17 which is a tad wide but its pace will get it into the race early & freewheel down tattenham corner.

[fintron]

Epsom 22/4/09 3.05 Epsom A fiercely competitive handicap here with twenty runners set to go to post but I'm struggling to identify where the pace is coming from as most of these are likely to be held up. Perhaps Robby Bobby and Aureate could be the front runners that get the race run to suit and of those, Aureate appeals more. This handicap has typically been won by a horse that has a recent run and has previous experience of an undulating track, so Brian Ellison's runner makes considerable appeal bearing in mind his course and distance third last summer. He was beaten by only 0.62 lengths in a class 2 handicap by Bureaucrat and although 6 lbs higher for this, did win at Southwell as recently as January off 4 lb lower. His only start since was when well beaten over hurdles at Plumpton, as he broke a blood vessel, but the five year old could go well with the eyecatching jockey booking of Ryan Moore. 10/1 Bet 365, 2 pts.

[mowgli77]

Re: Epsom 22nd April Ouster 3.40 Epsom This horse is mentioned on one of the RP blogs as the trainers Derby candidate and I like the look of its chances here today IF it gets a strong pace to quicken off. It opened at 100-1 on its debut, clearly not fancied but dwelt and was never in the race and was running on soft ground. It then ran a few weeks later at Salisbury and the in running comments are favourable: Quote:

Broke well, took keen hold, restrained in last pair after 2f, smooth headway over 2f out, shaken up to lead entering final furlong, quickened clear, easily (op 9-2)

I really like the "smooth headway" comments with horses over these type of trips, horses that travel well and find another gear when asked to go and win the race. The RP analysis also comments that the horse "quickened" and the good ground could have helped and the same conditions are expected tomorrow. That was only a maiden race over 1m but the 2nd went out and won to frank the form. Its final start was good to soft but it never settled and was unsuited by the pace, it stepped up to 1m2f and was only 1l second despite these issues. I can see Dettori or another one setting the pace tomorrow and that would set the race up for this horse nicely, it will have no probems with trip or ground (if it stays good or good to soft) and although the trainer is 0-13 for the last 14 days he has had some placed horses. I think the biggest dangers are Mustaqer and Popmurphy tomorrow.

[fintron]

Re: Epsom 22nd April 4.15 Epsom Favourites have traditionally fared well in this handicap, which bodes well for Mark Johnston's Hawaass, who heads the betting at 7/1. Although he was narrowly beaten by Ladies Best at Pontefract last time out it may have been that he needed the run as he hadn't been seen since June '08. He is unexposed after only four starts and based upon his maiden form he still looks well handicapped running off a mark of 93. On his second start at Sandown he was infront of Yadree (handicap winner off 86 and won a conditions race rated 100 subsequently), Irish Mayhem (handicap winner off 91) and Patkai (handicap winner off 95 and a Group 3 winner last term) amongst others, which rates as top notch form. He coped with the step up to this trip when running away with the field in a Newmarket handicap last year and I think he deserves another chance now race sharp. 2 pts, Blue Sq.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Epsom 22nd April 3:05 Epsom: Aureate 2pts e/w 10/1 Bet365 (Bog) Ran really well over course and distance in June last year. He is 6lbs higher here but acting on the track is a huge plus. Going no problem and with Ryan Moore in the plate - worth an each way bet. 4:15 Epsom: Ramona Chase 1pt e/w 25/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Another horse who has put up career best performance at this venue. A little lower in the handicap than when finishing second to Conduit no less in June last year, although at a respectable distance! Useful jockey / trainer combination.

[alexmac]

Re: Epsom 22nd April 4.15 Epsom - DUNCAN Held in high regards before his winter move from John Dunlop to John Gosden. He won a maiden last year, but then went slightly off the boil. He is bred to stay further than 10f, which he was campaigned over last year. Towards the back end of the season he was starting to take a fierce hold in some of his races. If the break over winter has helped him settle down, and if Gosden has managed to work on him settling in races then he could be one to watch. The ability is clearly there, and Gosden does not generally deal with poor quality animals, so he must be valued. Eventually he will be aimed at the staying races I would imagine, but on his seasonal reapperance tomorrow he may well run into a place at odds of around 12/1. Most definately one to keep an eye on in my opinion. 1pt e/w @ 10/1 BOG Paddy Power nb. there is a money back special on this race with Paddy Power

[RussP]

Re: Epsom 22nd April 4.15 Epsom This looks a cracking 20 runner Class 2 handicap over 10f and a bit of a minefield to sort. I've narrowed the field down quite significantly but, off the 4 I like, I can't be certain about the final selection and the one I slightly favour is a little too short in the betting for such a competitive heat. Therefore, I'll watch with interest but the shortlist, with current prices, are: Lake Poet (8/1 Ladbrokes) - Ran a nice race lto but looked unlucky in running. Back to fav track today where it has a fine record and racing off winnable mark. Only needs to strip a little fitter for lto and this horse will be very competitive here. Was almost a bet but would have preferred a bigger price for a horse that should turn around the form with likely fav Hawaass. Kavachi (10/1 >Bet365) - Such a consistent horse that it's impossible to ignore. Ran some great races last term and has recorded some excellent Topspeed figures in defeat. Back to best trip today and should go well with the extra 2f to suit, Ryan Moore in the plate and low racing weight off just 8-9. Ladies Best (12/1 Ladbrokes) - Won the race contested by Lake Poet lto. Not harshly treated for that race and seemed to have more to give after that performance. Should be competitive off this mark and has shown a liking for the track. Not sure I'm delighted with the jockey booking, that's my main negative, but I just couldn't discount this horses' chances. Ramona Chase (25/1 Ladbrokes) - The big priced one. If this horse hailed from a more illustrious yard, I could see it being half the odds. Nice reappearance and should come on for the run, decent lowish draw, has track form which is important here and a mark that is definitely not beyond the horse. Pulls hard but should go a decent clip and, if it gets the gaps, could go well. I may have a cheeky forecast for a bit of fun though.

[Trotter]

Re: Epsom 22nd April A few big field handicaps Each way Trixie material ! 2-30 - Bertoliver 3-05 - Hatton Flight 4.15 - Ladies Best Bertoliver is ideally suited by 5 furlongs and a big field. All 7 of his wins and places have come in double figure fields. Seasonal debut so fitness has to be taken on trust. Hatton Flight won a class 2 handicap at Lingfield recently and is only 2 lb higher. He's won at Goodwood so should handle the track. Trainer in good form. The horse won four times last summer but the Lingfield win shows that he's still improving. That was his seasonal debut Ladies Best won a class 2 at Ponty recently as the outsider of the field. His trainer explained that he'd had a breathing operation and his last few runs could be ignored as he couldn't breathe. He'd fallen down the weights a bit after those poor results last year and looks well in now if he's back to his best. Has won at epsom before. Could come on a bundle for that Ponty win if the horse realises that he can run and breathe at the same time !............

[Trotter]

Re: Epsom 22nd April Correction - Ladies Best hasn't won at Epsom before.......he has run well though, finishing second in a class 2 off a higher mark than he runs off today. Sorry about that !..........:unsure

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Epsom 22nd April 3.05 Dream Desert 4/1 bet3 bog 5pts e.w In a race that looks to be full of solid handicappers but pretty exposed handicappers in the main, this relatively unexposed Channon runner is the selection. Only had 5 runs and won his first two before running a couple of good enough races in fair company, one behind Bronze Cannon and then an even better effort behind Colony at royal asc. He stayed on really well that day and that was in a much better handicap than this, full of unexposed runners. After that he had some time off but his recent effort on the a.w when third again over shorter was a fair effort after a lay off and he should be able to come on for that run, the slightly extra trip today should really be appreciated and he is the selection and hopefully an e.w bet to nothing 4.15 Hawaass 7/1 lad 5 pts e.w Tough race this one with a few in here I like: Lake Poet does well here and looked back in better form lto, Sweet lightening has a race in him and Duncan maybe near the top of the weights but could be a pattern performer. However talking of possible pattern performers brings me to my selection, Hawaass. This one I backed lto in his first run for an age in a race that concerns some of these and I thought he ran a pretty decent race to only just be fought out of after making a bold effort from the front. There is every reason to think he should come on a lot for that run. His earlier form especially his first maiden win is smart and given his entries (group races) clearly powerful connections still like him a lot and he could go well with the only slight concern whether his relative inexperience could be a factor round here.

[Cloud88111]

Re: Epsom 22nd April In the 2.30 at Epsom supermassive muse is going at about 8/1, Whiskey Creek is going at 14/1. In their last race they came 6th and 7th respectively by a head. By all means have a difference in price but by 6 is a bit much. Neither has any extra penalty since then, similar race except for the ground. Not only that but Whiskey's AW record was quite desirable. Can someone shed some light onto the dramatic difference in price with these two when there abilities don't differ a great amount. My pick for this race is Rebel Duke (making the above a bit pointless) with an EW. He has held his own against a better standard of racing and has had a tremendous flat season. stable has seen some good results over the past few days and I expect to see one more.

[Cloud88111]

Re: Epsom 22nd April Never mind, by the start of the race they were roughly the same odds anyway.

[ryanf90]

Re: Epsom 22nd April just had £2 on wotashirtful, a bit unlucky, well atleast got my first one in my placepot gone for aureate in the next race am going to put a few quid each way on unbreak my heart in the 4.15 won well last time at pontefract on return and i like the horse

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Epsom 22nd April ITHINKBEST 4.50 Epsom. 1 point win. Didn't show much in one start last season, but expected to make up into a useful enough horse and can improve well today. The trip and ground would seem ok and so with Ryan Moore on board and improvement to come, I think we should go close.

[fintron]

Re: Epsom 22nd April

Hatton Flight won a class 2 handicap at Lingfield recently and is only 2 lb higher. He's won at Goodwood so should handle the track. Trainer in good form. The horse won four times last summer but the Lingfield win shows that he's still improving. That was his seasonal debut

Nice one :clap

[fintron]

Re: Epsom 22nd April

4.15 Epsom - DUNCAN Held in high regards before his winter move from John Dunlop to John Gosden. He won a maiden last year, but then went slightly off the boil. He is bred to stay further than 10f, which he was campaigned over last year. Towards the back end of the season he was starting to take a fierce hold in some of his races. If the break over winter has helped him settle down, and if Gosden has managed to work on him settling in races then he could be one to watch. The ability is clearly there, and Gosden does not generally deal with poor quality animals, so he must be valued. Eventually he will be aimed at the staying races I would imagine, but on his seasonal reapperance tomorrow he may well run into a place at odds of around 12/1. Most definately one to keep an eye on in my opinion. 1pt e/w @ 10/1 BOG Paddy Power nb. there is a money back special on this race with Paddy Power

was backed in to 8's :clap

[alexmac]

Re: Epsom 22nd April Cheers mate. Took the 10/1 this morning, but it drifted out to 12's early afternoon before being well backed on course. Won nicely and is one to keep an eye on when stepped up in trip.