muppet77 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 328 bets, 173% return / corner stak yes jazz, many thanks. here's to more success. drink from the grail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 328 bets, 173% return / corner stak can they restrict my stakes? They don't have to take your bets... Which is why you should develop the fixed-odds idea too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzfish Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 328 bets, 173% return / corner stak Hi Muppet, I'm thinking of starting a thread to post my selections on the forum. Do I need to get permission for this before going ahead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 328 bets, 173% return / corner stak spin definitely shifts before I post, more often than not, but extra moves with the opening of the flood gates to the masses. I have noticed twice that the line has dropped with spin as soon as I bet and then refresh the screen. When you place a bet with SPIN, do you get a message telling you to wait while your bet is referred to a trader, and then get a limited time to accept the bet they offer you, or does your bet get accepted after a short delay? If your bet is referred to a trader they can either offer you your original bet, a worse price or a lower stake. By offering you a worse price, I mean they could move the line before you are allowed your bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak no if the line shifts, it is always goes after they take my bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak cash points cash stake cash points spread stake stake % of bank stake stake date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner corners profit profit 8/1/11 L Coruna Barcelona 11.00 u 4 £6.60 3.00% 11 £0.00 0.00 12/1/11 Blackpool Liverpool 10.75 u 5 £6.60 3.00% with Spin also the first bet in the fixed odds paper trial: fixed odds blackpool liverpool 1.83 with B365 this bet represents value and is not generated just because it is flagged in the spreads system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak Interesting. The good thing is they let you get your bets on, perhaps suggesting they're willing to pay that price to have you help correct their line. Perhaps they also know that a lot of money follows your selections and are taking action in advance of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 328 bets, 173% return / corner stak Hi Muppet' date=' I'm thinking of starting a thread to post my selections on the forum. Do I need to get permission for this before going ahead?[/quote'] not from me buddy??! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak Interesting. The good thing is they let you get your bets on' date=' perhaps suggesting they're willing to pay that price to have you help correct their line. Perhaps they also know that a lot of money follows your selections and are taking action in advance of that.[/quote'] yes that has been suggested before. does that make me a cheap employee of sporting index?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak how about a Spin Doctor ? :loon:rollin:loon ..... I'll get me coat ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctoritcata Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak Hello,All Just a quick note - shouldn't the blackpool-liverpool bet for fixed odds be better of placed on "Asian total corners" market on "under 10.5"@1.95 as the "under" on "corners" market is the same thing but at 1.83?There is no push option on the "corners" market as it is a 3-way market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salford_student Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 327 bets, 170% return / corner sta well, here they are guys, using yield = (profit*stake) / (stoploss*stake) stop/loss yield 1 11.2% 2 11.5% 3 12.2% 4 11.3% 5 9.8% 6 8.8% 7 7.8% 8 6.8% 9 6.1% 10 5.5% 11 5.0% I'm not too familiar with spreadbetting rules, but can you choose your own stop loss limit ? the yield clearly does worse off when the stop-loss is larger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak no salford I was just showing that yield is hugely dictated by stop loss using this method. got spot. we will take the higher odds for our paper trial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salford_student Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak sorry what exactly do you want me to test? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 331 bets, 174% return / corner stak fixed odds h a bet odds profit Blackpool Liverpool 1.95 0.95 cash points cash stake cash points spread stake stake % of bank stake stake date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner corners profit profit 12/1/11 Blackpool Liverpool 10.75 u 5 £6.60 3.00% 6 £31.33 23.75 boom! boom! boom! bets30 wins 60.0% returned 3.3% losses 36.7% start bank £100.00 current bank £251.22 profit £151.22 all time bets 331 wins 54.4% returned 0.4% losses 45.2% all time profit 644.95 total corner estimates -0.1% v 6.1% average error 2.79 v 2.84 av absolute error 0.07 v 0.49 return per corner stake over all 331 bets is 174% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 331 bets, 174% return / corner stak cash points cash stake spread stake stake % of bank date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner 15/1/11 Chelsea Blackburn 11.50 u 3 £3.23 1.29% 15/1/11 Seville Espanyol 12.00 u 4 £4.31 1.71% both spin not had chance to check many fixed odds...apart from fixed odds h a bet odds profit 15/01/2011 lyon lorient 2 take last games return to make a double ...so £1.95 stake with B365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 331 bets, 174% return / corner stak Spread prices have held thus far, have had a small bet on each. Cheers and best of luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 331 bets, 174% return / corner stak this is the only other fixed odd value bet. £1 bet with B365. fixed odds h a bet odds profit 16/1/11 cesena roma 1.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salford_student Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak sorry what exactly do you want me to test? Nothing, just pointing out that the level of stop loss changes the expectancy by a small amount. Just wondering if the small amount would be enough to account for the change in yield ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 331 bets, 174% return / corner stak how and why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 331 bets, 174% return / corner stak cash points cash stake cash points spread stake stake % of bank stake stake date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner corners profit profit 15/1/11 Chelsea Blackburn 11.50 u 3 £3.23 1.29% 15 -£11.30 -10.50 15/1/11 Seville Espanyol 12.00 u 4 £4.31 1.71% 10 £8.61 8.00 16/1/11 Barcelona Malaga 12.00 u 3 £7.46 3.00% price cut with Spin already but the Racing Post is my proof. fixed odds h a bet odds profit 15/1/11 lyon lorient 2 1 fixed odds singles doubles bets 2 1 wins 2 1 strike 100% 100% profit 1.95 2.90 yield 98% 290% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ojideagu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 331 bets, 174% return / corner stak how and why? Hi Muppet your system looks very interesting, I also like using corner markets. Do you have any problems with Sporting Index putting on bets online. Are you allowed to do it online or do they make you phone? What about other companies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 333 bets, 174% return / corner stak no i bet online everytime without issue so far. I use Sporting Index for 75% of the bets and Extrabet for the other 25%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salford_student Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 331 bets, 174% return / corner stak how and why? How ? It's because the distribution is not symmetrical Why ? Because if you increase the stop loss, the expected loss on increase if your bet goes against you is not perfectly cancelled by the expected gain on the other side when the bet goes your way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 333 bets, 174% return / corner stak sorry, Not really getting that. imagine two matches with the same estimate and a stop loss of ten. the bookie changes the stop loss of one game to 9. how does this affect the match estimate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 333 bets, 174% return / corner stak when you say expectancy, what do you mean? I originally assumed you meant corner expectation, but do you mean profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
megg Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 333 bets, 174% return / corner stak sorry if I'm wrong but in cesena-roma corners were 12 ... probably I didn't understand your bet... it's under or over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 333 bets, 174% return / corner stak sorry if I'm wrong but in cesena-roma corners were 12 ... probably I didn't understand your bet... it's under or over? yes there were, it was a loser. "fixed odds date h a bet odds profit 16/1/11 cesena roma 1.95 -1.00 this is the third bet and i am starting the double again with the next bet. i will do this if only one bet is identified - it will be a single and then convert to a double if it wins. i will compare singles yield to doubles yield. fixed odds singles doubles bets 3 2 wins 2 1 strike 67% 50% profit 0.95 1.90 yield 32% 95% cash points cash stake cash points spread stake stake % of bank stake stake date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner corners profit profit 16/1/11 Barcelona Malaga 12.00 u 3 £7.46 3.00% 9 £22.37 9.00 boom! spreads bets 33 wins 60.6% returned 3.0% losses 36.4% start bank £100.00 current bank £270.90 profit £170.90 all time bets 334 wins 54.5% returned 0.4% losses 45.1% profit/stake 174% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 334 bets, 174% return / corner stak cash points cash stake spread stake stake % of bank date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner 22/1/11 Wolves Liverpool 10.50 u 3 £8.13 3.00% with Extrabet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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