Holy Grail Total Corners

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 103 matches 13% yie

Great return to form Muppet and the Levante game looks like a winner. 4 corners so far with 25 mins left. Quick question re the edge of 5%+ on fixed odds. What do you reckon your expected edge is overall? I presume some of the selections are quite a lot more than 5% taking the overall figure up? JF

I'd imagine between 5-10% but probably closer to the lower end? i don't record this for the fixed odds.

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 103 matches 13% yie ok correct update...looking rosey again...

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
date	h	a	bet	odds	profit
1/5/11	Levante	Sporting Gijon	Under 10.0	1.925	0.925

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
	singles	multiples
staked	104	58
matches	104	104
av odds	1.89	3.59
wins	55	20
strike	52.9%	34.5%
pushes	7.7%	5.2%
losses	39.4%	60.3%
profit	8.30	10.51
yield	8%	18%

SPREAD BET SYSTEM
					points	cash	cash stake		cash	points
			spread		stake	stake	% of bank		stake	stake
date	h	a	corners	bet	per corner	per corner	per corner	corners	profit	profit
30/4/11	Real Madrid	Zaragoza	11.00	u	3	£3.25	1.29%	12	-£3.25	-3.00

SPREAD BETS
'new bank' bets	51
wins	60.8%
returned	2.0%
losses	37.3%
start bank	£100.00
current bank	£260.52
profit	£160.52
all time bets	352
wins	54.9%
returned	0.3%
losses	44.7%
return/stake	171%

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 103 matches 13% yie ok, start of the final month of the season and time to step back a bit... SPREADS continue to astound me - 352 bets and a consistent profit. the trial banking system is 51 bets old and is close to TREBLING! There seems to be no long term hiccups - there is no data mining other than i just sell - any league any match they all rake the profit. FIXED ODDS My new venture. I estimate a 5% yield for the singles which will be multiplied to double figures for the accas, long term. Well, 104 matches into the testing and the accas are on +18% yield. Pretty chuffed with this one as we discussed on this thread that spread systems are incredibly hard to compare and exceptionally hard to compare directly against fixed odds systems. By transferring the spread estimates to fixed odd prices i can now do that. think it's time for a BOOM! :bignana Thanks to all followers and supporters. Let's make May a final month to remember!

[a1ehouse]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 104 matches 18% yie :notworthy:ok:nana

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 104 matches 18% yie cheers Ale!

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
date	h	a	bet	odds	profit
7/5/11	Burton Albion	Accrington Stanley	Under 10.0	1.8
7/5/11	Eintracht Frankfurt	Cologne	Under 10.0	2
7/5/11	VfB Stuttgart	Hannover	Under 10.0	1.825
7/5/11	Wycombe	Southend	Under 10.5	2
7/5/11	Nancy	Lille	Under 10.5	1.85
7/5/11	Barnet	Port Vale	Under 11.0	1.95
7/5/11	Stevenage	Bury	Under 11.0	1.8
7/5/11	Reading	Derby	Under 12.0	1.8
7/5/11	Aberdeen	St Johnstone	Under 9.5	1.95
7/5/11	Leverkeusen	Hamburg	Under 9.5	1.9
7/5/11	Arles	St Etienne	Under 9.5	1.95
8/5/11	Valenciennes	Rennes	Under 10.0	1.9
8/5/11	Lyon	Marseille	Under 10.0	2
9/5/11	Fulham	Liverpool	Under 10.0	2

usual rules. NO SPREAD BETS THIS WEEKEND!

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 104 matches 18% yie

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
date	h	a	bet	odds	profit
7/5/11	Burton Albion	Accrington Stanley	Under 10.0	1.8	0.000
7/5/11	Eintracht Frankfurt	Cologne	Under 10.0	2	1.000
7/5/11	VfB Stuttgart	Hannover	Under 10.0	1.825	0.825
7/5/11	Wycombe	Southend	Under 10.5	2	1.000
7/5/11	Nancy	Lille	Under 10.5	1.85	-1.000
7/5/11	Barnet	Port Vale	Under 11.0	1.95	0.000
7/5/11	Stevenage	Bury	Under 11.0	1.8	-1.000
7/5/11	Reading	Derby	Under 12.0	1.8	0.800
7/5/11	Aberdeen	St Johnstone	Under 9.5	1.95	0.950
7/5/11	Leverkeusen	Hamburg	Under 9.5	1.9	0.900
7/5/11	Arles	St Etienne	Under 9.5	1.95	-1.000

saturday brought a +22% yield on singles and +83% yield on doubles. BOOM! :bignana

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
	singles	multiples
staked	115	64
matches	115	116
av odds	1.90	3.59
wins	61	23
strike	53.0%	35.9%
pushes	8.7%	4.7%
losses	38.3%	59.4%
profit	10.78	15.46
yield	9%	24%

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 116 matches 24% yie ok, only a hundred odd games tested but look at the extra columns that i have added. The trebles interest me. May explore this from August!

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
	singles	doubles	trebles	fourfold	fivefold
staked	115	64	38	29	23
matches	115	116	116	116	116
av odds	1.89	3.59	6.79	12.87	24.38
wins	61	23	10	4	1
strike	53.0%	35.9%	26.3%	13.8%	4.3%
pushes	8.7%	4.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
losses	38.3%	59.4%	73.7%	86.2%	95.7%
profit	10.78	15.46	21.15	11.80	-8.74
yield	9%	24%	56%	41%	-38%

calculated as the matches appear in order listed.

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 116 matches 24% yie of course it should go without saying that I will not be quoting the trebles statistic in my headline summary figures as it was discovered retrospectively!! doubles and singles will still be suggested and measured for the next two weeks.

[clay747]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 116 matches 24% yie Great results Muppet, a lot of hard work is paying of nicely, well done mate! Maybe time to look for a better staking strategy for the fixed odds matches now you have some data to work with? Will be interesting to see how the doubles and trebles do next season, quite a bit of luck is involved in these, as you are not just betting on your match selections, but also the order of the selections, which is random? or are you trying to pair them in some way? What summer leagues have you lined up for us?!?!?!? :D

[saintrick5]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 116 matches 24% yie This is really a great system. I'm new to betting and this forum, but I've created an account to thank you for your excellent work. :ok

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 116 matches 24% yie :welcome Saintrick5 Many many thanks. That is most kind of you. :ok:ok:ok The summer leagues i hope to cover whatever i can get data for.

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 116 matches 24% yie

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
date	h	a	bet	odds	profit
8/5/11	Valenciennes	Rennes	Under 10.0	1.9	0.900
8/5/11	Lyon	Marseille	Under 10.0	2	-1.000
9/5/11	Fulham	Liverpool	Under 10.0	2	-1.000

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
	singles	doubles
staked	118	65
matches	118	118
av odds	1.90	3.59
wins	62	23
strike	52.5%	35.4%
pushes	8.5%	4.6%
losses	39.0%	60.0%
profit	9.68	14.46
yield	8%	22%

[muppet77]

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 118 matches 22% yie

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
date	h	a	bet	odds	profit
11/5/11	Levante	Barcelona	U10	1.95	0.950

SPREAD BET SYSTEM
					points	cash	cash stake		cash	points
			spread		stake	stake	% of bank		stake	stake
date	h	a	corners	bet	per corner	per corner	per corner	corners	profit	profit
11/5/11	Levante	Barcelona	10.30	u	4	£7.82	3.00%	5	£41.42	21.20

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 352 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 118 matches 22% yie

SPREAD BET SYSTEM
					points	cash	cash stake		cash	points
			spread		stake	stake	% of bank		stake	stake
date	h	a	corners	bet	per corner	per corner	per corner	corners	profit	profit
14/5/11	Chelsea	Newcastle	11.25	u	4	£9.06	3.00%

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 353 bets +73%. FIXED ODDS: 118 matches 22% yie

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
date	h	a	bet	odds	profit
14/5/11	St Mirren	St Johnstone	Under 10.0	1.8
14/5/11	Hamburg	Borussia M'gladbach	Under 10.0	1.975
14/5/11	Mainz	St Pauli	Under 10.0	1.9
14/5/11	Bayern Munich	VfB Stuttgart	Under 11.0	1.8
15/5/11	Villarreal	Real Madrid	Under 10.0	2
15/5/11	Real Zaragoza	Espanyol	Under 10.0	2
15/5/11	St Etienne	Rennes	Under 10.0	1.9
15/5/11	Chelsea	Newcastle	Under 11.0	1.875
15/5/11	Athletic Bilbao	Malaga	Under 11.0	1.975
15/5/11	Cesena	Brescia	Under 11.5	1.95
16/5/11	Brest	Lyon	Under 10.0	1.9

first game is a £1.95 rollover from the Barca bet to make a double.

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 353 bets +73%. FIXED ODDS: 118 matches 22% yie

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
date	h	a	bet	odds	profit
14/5/11	St Mirren	St Johnstone	Under 10.0	1.8	0.800
14/5/11	Hamburg	Borussia M'gladbach	Under 10.0	1.975	-1.000
14/5/11	Mainz	St Pauli	Under 10.0	1.9	0.000
14/5/11	Bayern Munich	VfB Stuttgart	Under 11.0	1.8	0.800
15/5/11	Villarreal	Real Madrid	Under 10.0	2	1.000
15/5/11	Real Zaragoza	Espanyol	Under 10.0	2	-1.000
15/5/11	St Etienne	Rennes	Under 10.0	1.9	-1.000
15/5/11	Chelsea	Newcastle	Under 11.0	1.875	0.000
15/5/11	Athletic Bilbao	Malaga	Under 11.0	1.975	-1.000
15/5/11	Cesena	Brescia	Under 11.5	1.95	0.950
16/5/11	Brest	Lyon	Under 10.0	1.9	-1.000

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
	singles	doubles	trebles	fourfold	fivefold
staked	130	71	43	32	26
matches	130	130	130	130	130
av odds	1.90	3.61	6.85	13.01	24.70
wins	67	25	10	4	1
strike	51.5%	35.2%	23.3%	12.5%	3.8%
pushes	9.2%	4.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
losses	39.2%	60.6%	76.7%	87.5%	96.2%
profit	9.18	15.57	16.15	8.80	-11.74
yield	7%	22%	38%	28%	-45%

look at those trebles go! :clap

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 353 bets +73%. FIXED ODDS: 118 matches 22% yie

SPREAD BET SYSTEM
					points	cash	cash stake		cash	points
			spread		stake	stake	% of bank		stake	stake
date	h	a	corners	bet	per corner	per corner	per corner	corners	profit	profit
14/5/11	Chelsea	Newcastle	11.25	u	4	£9.06	3.00%	11	£2.26	1.00

SPREAD BETS
'new bank' bets	53
wins	62.3%
returned	1.9%
losses	35.8%
start bank	£100.00
current bank	£304.21
profit	£204.21
all time bets	354
wins	55.3%
returned	0.3%
losses	44.4%
return/stake	172%

:clap

[betfairmania]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 354 bets +72%. FIXED ODDS: 130 matches 22% yie Nice stats you have here. Keep it going, mate!

[biglebowski]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 346 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 40 matches +26% yie Very solid systems & results, congrats. Just one question.

i look at the line and then i convert my estimate to a fixed odd. I allow 5% edge' date= so if they offer 5% better price than i estimate them to be, i bet.

Do you think it would be possible to record also the results for a minimum 10% edge (or at least 8%)? Thanks.

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 346 bets +71%. FIXED ODDS: 40 matches +26% yie

Very solid systems & results, congrats. Just one question. Do you think it would be possible to record also the results for a minimum 10% edge (or at least 8%)? Thanks.

no sorry. they take me long enough already.

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 354 bets +72%. FIXED ODDS: 130 matches 22% yie .....but the yield would average out at 8 to 10% with far fewer bets.

[biglebowski]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 354 bets +72%. FIXED ODDS: 130 matches 22% yie Ok, thank you for the answer.

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 354 bets +72%. FIXED ODDS: 130 matches 22% yie

FIXED ODDS SYSTEM
date	h	a	bet	odds	profit
21/5/11	Lyon	Caen	Under 10.5	2
21/5/11	Marseille	Valenciennes	Under 9.5	2
21/5/11	Montpellier	Monaco	Over 9.0	1.85
21/5/11	Nice	Lorient	Under 10.5	1.85
21/5/11	PSG	Lille	Under 10.5	1.9

Ok, a very difficult decision for me. Unfortunately I now follow the Asians with real money and many bets are made right up to the last minute. By posting in advance I am afraid that I lose value. From here on I am going to not post spreads nor asians anymore. Many thanks for following and also your support and advice. Sorry to disappoint, but I have included some French games that I will not touch. NB there are OVERS TOO NOW!!! Once again, many thanks for everyone who has followed or contributed to a great thread that has taught me a lot about betting. I will loiter on the forum of course. I think that I have found The Grail. Some of you will disagree I am sure, but it's my own Grail, in any case. :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[Jenno99]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. SPREADS: 354 bets +72%. FIXED ODDS: 130 matches 22% yie

Ok, a very difficult decision for me. Unfortunately I now follow the Asians with real money and many bets are made right up to the last minute. By posting in advance I am afraid that I lose value. From here on I am going to not post spreads nor asians anymore. Many thanks for following and also your support and advice. Sorry to disappoint, but I have included some French games that I will not touch. NB there are OVERS TOO NOW!!! Once again, many thanks for everyone who has followed or contributed to a great thread that has taught me a lot about betting. I will loiter on the forum of course. I think that I have found The Grail. Some of you will disagree I am sure, but it's my own Grail, in any case. :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

Well thank you for all the great bets Muppet. I'll certainly miss your corner spreads. Why have you made the decision to not post bets anymore may I ask?

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. End of days :-( thanks. I have clear evidence that punters shift the odds and stop me making any bets later on. ideally I'd post a minute before kick off but that helps no one.

[muppet77]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. End of days :-( .....and time is my biggest foe. its ever more a balancing act to get bets on.

[gloryhunters]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. End of days :-( I just like to say thanks for doing such a great deal of work in this area and shares. It certainly has got me looking into these markets and moving into other areas. I just do the spreads, but my preception is that the lines for corners are lower than they use to be. Not sure if this is a wrong perception or the volume of your followers has meant the line can't be exposed to the low number of corners. Anyway, thanks for a wonderful ride and all the best in the future :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[a1ehouse]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. End of days :-( Cheers Muppet, it's been emotional :ok :nana:loon:clap :dude:notworthy:cheers:beer;)

[Jenno99]

Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. End of days :-( Have to say this is the most inspirational thread on Punter's Lounge and I'll definitely be trying to come up with my own corner estimates to play the spreads with. Thanks again Muppet. :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap