Holy Grail Total Corners

[muppet77]

FAQs what's going on here? i intend to proof my new rating system for 'total corners' in a match. i will be using live tv games, as covered by Sporting Index or spreadex. I will cover the EPL, SPL, Champ, L1, L2, BSq, Spain, Italy and Germany. League games only! All bets will be paper tested before unleashing real money. i hope to get a decent yield after 100 or so bets. i will measure % yield by : profit / (money won + abs(money lost)) eg if i have two bets, and win 3 quid on one, but lose 2 quid on the other, this gives me a yield of 20%. 1 / (2 + 3) where do you get your data from? www.football-data.co.uk how much do you stake? i will measure the difference between my estimate and the midpoint of the bookies spread to work out my stake: eg the spread is 11.25-11.75 gives a midpoint of 11.50 i estimate 10.00 which gives a difference of 1.5 corners or a SELL of 7 units

difference stake 0-0.74: no bet 0.75-0.99: 3 units 1-1.24: 4 units 1.25-1.49: 5 units 1.5-1.74: 7 units 1.75-1.99: 8 units 2-2.24: 9 units 2.25-2.49: 11 units 2.5-2.74: 12 units 2.75-2.99: 14 units 3-3.24: 15 units

what is spread betting? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting http://images.sportingindex.com/globalimages/trainingacademy/trainingacademy.html who are the spread companies that you use? http://www.sportingindex.com/ http://www.extrabet.com/dealing/sport/home.htm http://www.sportsspread.com/ http://www.spreadex.com/Sports/ https://www.sportsalive.com/betshop/index.php?cPath=2052#top generally i will only use Sporting and Extra. If you have to pick one of the two, Sporting covers around 75% of my bets, Extra the others. is there a place to compare spread corners? no! let me know if you hear of one! how do you work out the estimates? i use simple stats to rate the two teams involved. league only. that's all i am saying! (unless i get a financial offer from a spead firm or individual!) do you plan in advance? yes i use http://www.livesportontv.com/football/ to anticipate which games will be priced up. the weekend's games are usually published on a thursday by Sporting Index (SPIN) and friday by extrabet. i rarely use the other companies listed as the best price usually comes from one of these two. (70% from SPIN and 30% extrabet). these are the only two accounts you need for most of the bets. how much can i lose? i have a stop loss feature of 10 corners, so i can lose 10 x the stake per corner. eg if i stake 4 units per corner, at £1 per corner, i can lose at most 4 units x 10 corners x £1 = £40 but a bigger stake of 7 units at £10 a corner could be 7 units x 10 corners x £10 = £700 it is up to you to sensibly work out your stake - don't blame me! do you bet on multiples or singles for o/u a particular corner count? no, i stick to spread bets as it suits my estimating method more as it doesn't need another approximation method to work out the % chance of o/u. where do you get historic spread odds from? as far as i know there is no site with historic SPREAD prices for corners. I collected some and paper trialled until i was confident to go live on here. The price has changed. What's going on? It is likely that after a large weight of money (or a 'reliable' punter) has gone on a match, the companies will trim a quarter of a corner or so off the price. See the Racing Post newspaper for proof of prices before they get cut.

Edited November 4, 2017 by muppet77
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[clarky101]

Re: corner spreads I'll be looking forward to this.... as i like a spread bet...BOL mate...

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads Cheers bud. All bets will be a buy or sell (over or under the quote) and always at one unit per corner.

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads ok bets to follow. i have used the best spread price from Sporting Index and also Spreadex. for the bet, "o" = "over" or BUY - i think the corner count will be higher "u" = "under" or SELL - i thnk it will be lower. stake is how confident i am - an how many unit per corner. start bank = 100

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads

			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
27/2/09	FC Koln	Bielefeld	11	o	1
28/2/09	Ath Bilbao	Sevilla	10	u	2
28/2/09	Espanol	Real Madrid	10	u	1
28/2/09	Auxerre	Toulouse	9.5	o	1
28/2/09	Hamilton	Rangers	10.25	o	2
28/2/09	Everton	West Brom	11.75	u	1
28/2/09	Middlesbrough	Liverpool	10.25	u	1
28/2/09	Arsenal	Fulham	11	u	1
28/2/09	Chelsea	Wigan	11	u	3
28/2/09	Oxford	Torquay	11.2	o	1
1/3/09	Ath Madrid	Barcelona	10.75	u	4
1/3/09	Betis	Villarreal	10.75	u	2
1/3/09	Lyon	Rennes	10	u	2
1/3/09	Werder Bremen	Bayern Munich	11	u	1
1/3/09	Bolton	Newcastle	11	o	1
1/3/09	Aston Villa	Stoke	11.75	u	2
1/3/09	Sheffield United	Birmingham	10.8	u	1

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads whoops - got the stakes wrong. only the german game played so far - and i will count it. the table below replaces the original one. the stake reflects my confidence.

			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
28/2/09	Ath Bilbao	Sevilla	10	u	1
28/2/09	Hamilton	Rangers	10.25	o	1
28/2/09	Chelsea	Wigan	11	u	2
1/3/09	Betis	Villarreal	10.75	u	1
1/3/09	Lyon	Rennes	10	u	1
1/3/09	Aston Villa	Stoke	11.75	u	1
1/3/09	Ath Madrid	Barcelona	10.75	u	3

[clarky101]

Re: corner spreads GL with this mate, i'll be watching with intrest....your paper trailing at the mo or going banging in with real money ??

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads just paper trailing at the mo although backtesting looks promising (doesn't it always?!) i have decided to trial it for 50 games or so.

[clarky101]

Re: corner spreads Nice one, what was the critera from the first table in whittling down the teams to what was left in the second ......or is that secret ;)

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads basically i have produced a prediction of the corner count (that part is top secret). i found by backtesting that the greater the difference betweeen my rating and the spread prediction, the greater the yield i had.

diff	bets	bet%	strike	profit	prof / bet	yield	spread AE	me AE	diff AE	spr AAE	me AAE	diff AAE
0.00	289	100%	44%	-64.50	-0.22	-7.5%	0.01	-0.02	-0.03	2.99	2.95	-0.03
0.05	260	90%	45%	-45.50	-0.18	-6.0%	0.22	0.19	-0.03	2.90	2.86	-0.03
0.10	236	82%	47%	-28.75	-0.12	-4.2%	0.16	0.13	-0.03	2.90	2.86	-0.04
0.15	206	71%	48%	-13.75	-0.07	-2.4%	0.30	0.26	-0.04	2.84	2.79	-0.05
0.20	180	62%	48%	5.75	0.03	1.1%	0.35	0.30	-0.04	2.96	2.90	-0.06
0.25	170	59%	49%	18.00	0.11	3.6%	0.29	0.24	-0.05	2.94	2.87	-0.07
0.30	152	53%	51%	39.25	0.26	9.0%	0.20	0.14	-0.06	2.88	2.80	-0.08
0.35	134	46%	53%	41.75	0.31	10.9%	0.29	0.22	-0.08	2.90	2.80	-0.10
0.40	119	41%	55%	36.75	0.31	11.0%	0.25	0.16	-0.08	2.85	2.73	-0.12
0.45	99	34%	55%	19.75	0.20	7.2%	0.16	0.08	-0.08	2.79	2.66	-0.13
0.50	85	29%	60%	35.50	0.42	15.1%	0.14	0.03	-0.12	2.81	2.63	-0.19
0.55	72	25%	61%	40.00	0.56	19.6%	0.09	-0.07	-0.16	2.90	2.68	-0.22
0.60	55	19%	65%	35.00	0.64	22.5%	0.20	-0.04	-0.24	2.91	2.62	-0.29
0.65	49	17%	67%	32.25	0.66	21.8%	0.31	0.01	-0.30	3.11	2.79	-0.32
0.70	38	13%	74%	39.50	1.04	33.3%	0.80	0.47	-0.33	3.24	2.80	-0.44
0.75	32	11%	75%	39.00	1.22	39.0%	1.03	0.72	-0.31	3.25	2.78	-0.47
0.80	28	10%	75%	36.00	1.29	40.0%	1.32	0.86	-0.46	3.34	2.86	-0.48
0.85	22	8%	82%	33.75	1.53	45.5%	1.06	0.54	-0.51	3.53	2.92	-0.62
0.90	19	7%	79%	27.00	1.42	40.0%	0.99	0.44	-0.55	3.70	3.11	-0.59
0.95	16	6%	75%	18.00	1.13	30.8%	1.09	0.39	-0.71	3.78	3.25	-0.53
1.00	14	5%	86%	31.00	2.21	68.1%	2.14	1.47	-0.67	3.43	2.69	-0.74
1.05	11	4%	82%	26.50	2.41	64.6%	2.75	1.99	-0.76	3.89	3.13	-0.76
1.10	8	3%	88%	18.25	2.28	69.5%	1.91	0.99	-0.91	3.47	2.56	-0.91
1.15	6	2%	83%	12.75	2.13	61.4%	1.54	0.70	-0.84	3.63	2.79	-0.84
1.20	3	1%	67%	6.50	2.17	44.8%	2.42	1.13	-1.28	4.92	4.44	-0.48
1.25	1	0%	100%	9.00	9.00	100.0%	9.25	7.82	-1.43	9.25	7.82	-1.43

AE = average error AAE = average absolute error

[F.]

Re: corner spreads Small profit despite the disaster at the Chelsea match. Good luck with this. F. P.S.: Please email me, I might be able to help you registering corner spreads. You already got my address.

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads

			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
27/2/09	FC Koln	Bielefeld	11.00	o	1	7	-4.00
28/2/09	Ath Bilbao	Sevilla	10	u	1	7	3.00
28/2/09	Hamilton	Rangers	10.25	o	1	17	6.75
28/2/09	Chelsea	Wigan	11	u	2	20	-18.00
1/3/09	Betis	Villarreal	10.75	u	1	10	0.75
1/3/09	Lyon	Rennes	10	u	1	9	1.00
1/3/09	Aston Villa	Stoke	11.75	u	1	12	-0.25
1/3/09	Ath Madrid	Barcelona	10.75	u	3	9	5.25

-14%	yield
-5.50	profit

i am well pleased with this profit after the chelsea game lost me 18 points!! i really believe in this and will judge it in th elong term. one game tonight is flagged up:

			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
2/3/09	Histon	Cambridge	11.00	o	1

F, i have emailed you.

[clarky101]

Re: corner spreads Nice start Muppet, i'll keep an eye on tonights game as Histon like to bang the ball forward as quickly as they can!!!

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads Histon Camb was spot on!

ALL TIME	9	bets			these bets	1	bets
	56%	wins				0%	wins
	11%	level				100%	level
	33%	losses				0%	losses
	39.00	staked				0.00	staked
	-14%	yield				0%	yield
	-5.50	profit				0.00	profit
			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
2/3/09	Histon	Cambridge	11.00	o	1	11	0.00

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads

ALL TIME	9	bets			these bets	0	bets
	56%	wins				0%	wins
	11%	level				0%	level
	33%	losses				0%	losses
	39.00	staked				0.00	staked
	-14%	yield				0%	yield
	-5.50	profit				0.00	profit
			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
3/3/09	Liverpool	Sunderland	11.80	u	2
3/3/09	West Brom	Arsenal	11	u	1

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads

ALL TIME	11	bets			these bets	2	bets
	64%	wins				100%	wins
	9%	level				0%	level
	27%	losses				0%	losses
	50.60	staked				11.60	staked
	12%	yield				100%	yield
	6.10	profit				11.60	profit
			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
3/3/09	Liverpool	Sunderland	11.80	u	2	8	7.60
3/3/09	West Brom	Arsenal	11	u	1	7	4.00

[clarky101]

Re: corner spreads: 11 bets, +12% yield Good going fella, keep it up..

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 11 bets, +12% yield

			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
4/3/09	Kilmarnock	Celtic	10.50	o	1

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 11 bets, +12% yield

ALL TIME	12	bets			these bets	1	bets
	67%	wins				100%	wins
	8%	level				0%	level
	25%	losses				0%	losses
	54.10	staked				3.50	staked
	18%	yield				100%	yield
	9.60	profit				3.50	profit
			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
4/3/09	Kilmarnock	Celtic	10.50	o	1	14	3.50

:clap

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 12 bets, +18% yield

			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
7/3/09	Lille	Lyon	9.75	u	2
8/3/09	St Etienne	Nantes	9.75	u	2

[clarky101]

Re: corner spreads: 12 bets, +18% yield Nice winner tonight M, well done :beer

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 12 bets, +18% yield Take me home mama! cheers clarky! :clap

ALL TIME	13	bets			these bets	1	bets
	69%	wins				100%	wins
	8%	level				0%	level
	23%	losses				0%	losses
	65.60	staked				11.50	staked
	32%	yield				100%	yield
	21.10	profit				11.50	profit
			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
7/3/09	Lille	Lyon	9.75	u	2	4	11.50

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 13 bets, +32% yield

ALL TIME	14	bets			these bets	1	bets
	71%	wins				100%	wins
	7%	level				0%	level
	21%	losses				0%	losses
	67.10	staked				1.50	staked
	34%	yield				100%	yield
	22.60	profit				1.50	profit
			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
8/3/09	St Etienne	Nantes	9.75	u	2	9	1.50

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield just as a point of interest i am going to see how the ratings model copes with the Champions' League. I do not expect it to do as well as the domestic model, but would like to test it. i will keep separate stats. Games involving Greek, Dutch and Portuguese teams are not included due to lack of data.

			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
10/3/09	Liverpool	Real Madrid	10.25	o	3
10/3/09	Juventus	Chelsea	10.5	o	1
11/3/09	Barcelona	Lyon	10.25	u	3

:hope we shall see - crash and burn or a success story?

[Smokin Joe]

Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield Muppet, it will be interesting to see how the Champions League goes for you, but I don't think that I would like to use ratings generated in domestic leagues for predictions in the Champions League. The CL tends to see a totally different brand of football (IMO).

[clarky101]

Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield Good Shout on the Scousers M, second time Chelsea have let us down...well done & keep up the good work....

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield

EURO	2	bets			these bets	2	bets
	50%	wins				50%	wins
	0%	level				0%	level
	50%	losses				50%	losses
	15.75	staked				15.75	staked
	43%	yield				43%	yield
	6.75	profit				6.75	profit
			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
10/3/09	Liverpool	Real Madrid	10.25	o	3	14	11.25
10/3/09	Juventus	Chelsea	10.5	o	1	6	-4.50

Barce Lyon tonight.

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield BOOM!

EURO	3	bets			these bets	1	bets
	67%	wins				100%	wins
	0%	level				0%	level
	33%	losses				0%	losses
	22.50	staked				6.75	staked
	60%	yield				100%	yield
	13.50	profit				6.75	profit
			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner	corners	profit
11/3/09	Barcelona	Lyon	10.25	u	3	8	6.75

:clap

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield another indicator of success so far - average absolute error (AAE) AAE = the absolute error between the prediction and the result. so if the midpoint of the spread is 10.25 my rating predicts 10.45 and there are 11 corners my AAE is 0.55 the bookies' AAE is 0.75 in this example, so i am slightly more accurate. i have also recorded the predictions of matches that have not be bet on and have generated the following summary:

	No.	my AAE	spread AAE	diff AAE	yield
all matches	54	3.25	3.35	-0.10	NA
all bets	20	2.90	3.18	-0.28	18%
non bets	34	3.46	3.46	0.00	NA
1 units staked	11	2.23	2.50	-0.27	43%
2 units staked	7	4.34	4.68	-0.34	9%
3 units staked	2	1.57	1.63	-0.06	8%

on ALL 54 live TV games, my AAE is 0.10 corners better than the bookies, and 0.28 better on my bets. admittedly there is still a very low number of bets and matches, but it is a pleasing start. onwards and upwards. :ok

[muppet77]

Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield

			spread		stake per
date	home	away	corners	bet	corner
14/3/09	Ath Bilbao	Real Madrid	10.00	u	1
15/3/09	Aston Villa	Tottenham	12.00	u	2
15/3/09	Bristol City	Cardiff	11.00	u	1