Nade Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 A picture paints a thousand words (or whatever) This is just from NL100 this month. How do i know it's variance? I haven't changed my game throughout. I PMd Gaf at the bottom of the dip saying it's going really bad etc. but i was going to stick to my game as i know i'm playing really well. So it just shows what a really bad run or a really good run of cards can do. I think this graph should help all the people doing the challenge and anyone else to see that yes poker can be tough but if you stick to your guns and keep a clear and strong mental mindset then things can very quickly turn around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Variance Nice one Nade :ok Not talking about you specifically (in fact I'm thinking of my experiences) - but I'm not sure I agree you can be sure nothing in your game has changed - I think that the most incredibly small, and unnoticable, changes can make a huge difference - they creep into your game without you realising or noticing and you get them out of your game through evolutionary movements, and hey presto - it's gone, without you ever realising it was there :loon The big one I notice is when I play a lot of tournaments, I really struggle in cash and do better in tourneys .... then when my focus switches to cash, at first I struggle, but seem to turn it around, but inversely proportionate to that, my tourney game slides - I believe that I make adjustments (subconscious adjustments) to my game that improves my cash play, at the expense of tourney play. If I focus on tourneys, then I make the same journey, but in reverse, to when I switch to cash. I dont know what adjustments I make between tourneys and cash (I know what adjustments I make between short stack and deep stack, but this is more than that) - I just know that I need time to adjust from one to the other :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Variance Just painstakingly sorted the hands out on HEM. This chart shows the first few thousand hands up to the lowest total i was at for the month: This chart shows the last few thousand hands since: I think it's 1 hand off the exact total for the month, but it's a pain in the ass splitting the hands. To find the last few k hands you just bang the total in and press save, but to find the first few k you have to go to the exact hour, minute and second! So let's have a look at what the stats say. I'm putting them up so we can see if there's any clear reason why i lost so much in the first few k hands then there was a big upswing in the next few k hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted February 13, 2009 Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: Variance Really is work of art. Add on the rake back and your still the richest student on the block.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: Variance The clearest difference is i've been a lot tighter in the blinds during the upswing. Maybe that is a unconscious change developed through my tonnes of short hand experience as i know in the past when i've gone through a bad patch i was leaking a lot out of the blinds and so then tightened up, but as i said, i didn't study my game and see this leak this time so i can only imagine it's a natural adjustment. To counteract this it looks like i loosened up from the button. The other 3 positions are pretty much the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player004 Posted February 13, 2009 Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: Variance From my very new eye looking at tracker stats I can't see anything really different except for the amount of times you have gone to a showdown (2% greater, not really significant) and the won at showdown percentage(11.5% greater) which could reasonably be explained by a change in fortune. Very impressive graph! 18 buy in swings must be brutal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: Variance From my very new eye looking at tracker stats I can't see anything really different except for the amount of times you have gone to a showdown (2% greater, not really significant) and the won at showdown percentage(11.5% greater) which could reasonably be explained by a change in fortune. Very impressive graph! 18 buy in swings must be brutal. Yeh 20buy-in downswings are pretty terrible, but unfortunately seem to be a regular occurrence for me and looking at 2+2 it seems standard for cash players to frequently go on these swings too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player004 Posted February 13, 2009 Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: Variance Didn't notice the VPIP% for the blinds. We're you giving up your blinds more as well? Yeh 20buy-in downswings are pretty terrible' date=' but unfortunately seem to be a regular occurrence for me and looking at 2+2 it seems standard for cash players to frequently go on these swings too.[/quote'] Biggest I've had so far is 8 buy ins. Knowing that everyone seems to get really bad spells might help me through the really bad runs without tilting (too much!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadlydaveLDN Posted February 19, 2009 Share Posted February 19, 2009 Re: Variance The clearest difference is i've been a lot tighter in the blinds during the upswing. Maybe that is a unconscious change developed through my tonnes of short hand experience as i know in the past when i've gone through a bad patch i was leaking a lot out of the blinds and so then tightened up, but as i said, i didn't study my game and see this leak this time so i can only imagine it's a natural adjustment. To counteract this it looks like i loosened up from the button. The other 3 positions are pretty much the same. Good work in getting back from the bottom of that downswing! Definitely appears that tightening up in the blinds, and playing looser on the button (combined, I guess, with a change in luck) did the job. At the end of the day, the button always has been the most profitable position and the blinds the least profitable, so even a small (and unconscious) adjustment is going to have a huge effect. Poker is always evolving as a game, but I don't think I'll ever see the day when the effect of position changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Variance O wow. These are the sickest 2 days of my poker life. From +10buyins yesterday to it looks like an infinite amount of buy-ins down today. After 650 hands i;ve only made more then $25 in 2 pots even though i've had sets, straights, 2 pairs etc etc. I'm still v confident of ending today in profit. But. Wow. Stay away from poker folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 1, 2009 Author Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Variance Thought i might as well show the conclusion of the month that started crazily ... and the end was very similar too. Got raked $2100 so get 1/3 back which is $700 so plus $300 = $1k for the month which is ok, a profits a profit particularly after being 18buyins down. Today put a fairly hefty dent in the profits. If only i could learn to fold sets vs people who hit their straights when i know they've hit their straights but i'm like naaaa surely this time that river isn't the one that completes the only possible straight they could possibly have. O wait it is.. 3 times. I look forward to March. Like it's going to be any different from all the other months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: Variance Lol................. I thought i'd seen 'variance' That was until March 2009 came along. I've played hundreds of thousands of hands and haven't experienced anything on this scale before and bare in mind this is with the new approach of trying not to get the money as only a slight favourite. I'm going in with pair over pair, sets, straights, flushes, fullhouses and losing over and over. Ok i allow some room for when i'm playing real nitty i can expect people will go in with the top of their range but when i'm in with the top of my range also and in behind or being sucked out it's pretty sick 95% of things that are going on. The well known tracking site has a 'hot or not' rating out of 100 with 100 being running hotter than the sun. My number is 1. I literally have no idea how i got into poker but i wish i never had. Those faithful words again: thank **** for bankroll management. Dropped an insane amount of buy-ins this month but still way over-rolled for 100NL. This isn't just another 'omg i got outtered' post. This is serious shit. I hope noone else goes through a period like this. Tomorrow is another day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted March 12, 2009 Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: Variance Sorry to hear you're going through a rough patch. As you say, only bright light is your bankroll management. Made me have a rethink about the amount I want to have before I move up levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: Variance Sorry to hear you're going through a rough patch. As you say' date=' only bright light is your bankroll management. Made me have a rethink about the amount I want to have before I move up levels.[/quote'] Well in my poker bankroll i had 70buy-ins for 100NL, now because of the last 3days have 50buy-ins which is still more then enough. I'd feel fine playing 100NL with 30buy-ins and i used to, but haven't moved to 200NL lately because of run bad and the variance is higher at 200NL so i want a lot more. Generally 40 buy-ins is safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: Variance Think i'm down a few more today don't dare to look really. Just lost vs a straight flush for 2nd time in 2days, yesterday when i had a full house and today when i had AK high flush. Also someone earlier called off a third of their full stackstack pre flop when i had QQ, flop comes T high they have TT obv. Oh just been 2outtered again. Why is this happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: Variance played 1300 hands dropped 6buyins. top trips with qk v ak top 2 pair on flop with a10 vs flopped set 88 ak high flush vs str8 flush the qq v tt 99 v jj shortstacker another where i had j high flush draw on flop, turned a double gut shot draw to go with. guy rivers off suit 3 for 2pair after been calling down with lower flush draw and 2nd pair. i.e. the off suit 3 one of only card in deck he can call being put all in on river and even then he time banked with 2pair. kk v 77 set over set 99 v qq missed combo draw with 2nd pair and nut flush but i did make a buyin with aa v ak sick life. /// :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: Variance will have to take a break otherwise it's countdown to busto. see me again ???? maybe not sdfsdgsoigjvdsfjvgkm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve-C Posted March 12, 2009 Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: Variance just take a couple of days off and go enjoy yourself doing something else, then come back with a fresh mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: Variance I've been wondering at what point do you get to the stage of just folding the second or third nuts if someone else goes all in? I guess my head is a bit fuzzy with this bad run and so i'm thinking about things i'd never considered before. But if opponents are incessantly turning up with either the nuts or 2nd nuts when the money goes in do i just fold my 2pairs sets, straights, flushes, full houses? Surely that makes us exploitable and so it's obvious that when we go in we have the nuts, but that's what everyone else does. confusing huh. I went for the looser approach for most of today playing 29/22. This i see as the optimal kind of range for 100nl as it bullies the nits into folding all the time as they hate playing big pots without the nuts (as i know etc etc) but it should be easier to get paid off when i have big hands too as people will call down lighter. Both trends i noticed in abundance today (my 2nd and 3rd largest pots won today were with 2pair and a set called down by really weak 1 pair hands) So playing 29/22 is it still worth folding the 2nd or 3rd nuts to nits? Is that poker? Don't we just have to hold our hands up and say ok you're running bad? Or is not running bad? This has been constant over the last few days so does it come to the point where if a nit is going all in just fold no matter if we hold the 2nd nuts? Is this crazy talk? Of course. I'm going crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 13, 2009 Author Share Posted March 13, 2009 Re: Variance Trying to turn this bad run to my advantage. I'm playing a lot more loose, it's a lot more fun for a start but it's very easy to exploit the nits this way (and there are loads). I'm very confident of being able to turn this run around quickly with a new approach which will see me tighten up from the blinds and playing like a pain in the ass from the CO and BTN. Played 30/21 today and just lost too much from the blinds by playing too many hands even though i'd only continue with fairly big hands the small losses accumulate. Once the AK v AA, QQ v KK turn to AA v AK and KK v QQ etc. then that will help a huge amount too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: Variance Ok so a bit ago i had tooooooootally had enough. To cut a long story short totally changed my game, drove everyone crazy and made 6buy-ins in under 1.5k hands. Needless to say my non-showdown winnings line is well into the black ;) Thing with this style is i don't think it actually takes too much balls, the occasional light big bet helps but it's just generally to be a pain in the ass and it's worked to uber fashion so far. Can't go into exact details as whenever i do it all goes belly up ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: Variance non-showdown winnings in the black but running 8buyins below all in EV over the last day. If this carries on will have to try and get staked. Just as proof for any potential stakers if that fateful day ever comes :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: Variance I'm literally trying everything to get out of this bad run, changed my style dramatically over the last day and as i think the graph shows it should be working i keep getting people to put 100-250bbs in behind but they keep sucking out with 6outs and less every time. It's not a oh feel sorry for me story it's my real life atm i'm just trying to keep sane with a few posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted March 14, 2009 Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: Variance Are you just running bad at the moment, or playing badly? If you're just running bad, then why change anything? (except maybe moving down to lower stakes if bankroll/confidence dictates). It means you're playing profitable poker, just not seeing the cash flow at the moment - it doesnt matter - it will come if you keep playing profitable poker! If you are playing badly and losing because of that, then yes, you need to change things - what has changed since you were playing great and profitable poker? You need to understand that to move through this.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: Variance It's pretty hard to lose 30buyins in 5days and not want to change anything. As i've said i was just getting coolered constantly as people only seemed to want to get their money in with either the nuts or the virtual nuts and i kept getting suckered with slightly weaker hands. So i had enough of that and changed my game to take advantage of all the nits as my non showdown winnings show that side is working i'm now just running bad. Before when i was getting coolered i couldn't be totally sure whether that's running bad or playing bad, as after all if they're nits and go all in they have a huge hand but i'm not good enough to fold the 2nd nuts over and over (that includes fullhouses v quads twice just to get the idea). I actually think for the development of my game playing looser like this gives me the best chance of progressing through the levels as nits higher up are just few and far between meaning it doesn't work. Think i have to 'embrace the variance' at the mo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 Re: Variance You guys rock, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 Re: Variance I think it's time you took a short break and cleared your head. You must have amassed a reasonable chunk of cash from poker over the past year, maybe it's time to spend some. Take a few days off, fly your girlfriend to Paris for a break (it's really nice there this time of year), shag her senseless, eat good food, drink good wine. Don't go near the internet or Poker for 7 days. Come back and play your normal game, you'll win money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulioArca Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 Re: Variance Take a few days off, fly your girlfriend to Paris for a break (it's really nice there this time of year), shag her senseless, eat good food, drink good wine. Don't go near the internet or Poker for 7 days. Come back and play your normal game, you'll win money. Good advice (Now I wonder if the wife will let me take the girlfriend to Paris ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAM Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 Re: Variance You guys rock' date=' thanks.[/quote'] I assume thats sarcasm but I suppose if you go around rubbing people down on forums that when you actualy need some help you find out who your friends are :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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