RuleBritannia Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman madison du berlais 5 runs at Cheltenham finished 3-6-7-3-5 its OR is now 169 following the Kempton win with Denman on 182. 3 of its wins have come at Newbury which is a stayers track. Course form just doesnt do it for me! The best horse to judge Madison Du Berlais against could well be Neptune Collonges. MDB's last course run was in the Christopher and Letherby in Jan '08 over 3m2f, and was 5th behind Knowhere, with NC finishing in 3rd, 8 1/2l ahead of MDB and giving 4lbs. NC has since gone on to win 2 Grade 1's, a Class 1 HC Chase (giving weight all around), 3rd in the Gold Cup and falling when looking a live danger in the Grade 1 Lexus. MDB since that race has fallen in the GN, 6th in a Handicap chase on his seasonal reappearance, and winning his last two starts (Hennessey and AON). The biggest question would be, since opposing in Jan '08, has MDB improved to the level that he should be turning around the 8 1/2 l difference behind NC??, as he wont be getting 4lbs on GC day. OR on the day of that race were NC - 161 MDB - 154 OR now are NC - 174 MDB - 169 At Cheltenham, NC's record is 4-F-8-3-3 MDB's record is 3-6-7-3-5 Similar figures, but for me crucially the first 3rd place for NC was the race in which MDB finished 5th and the second 3rd place was last years Gold Cup. Im more than happy to take MDB on with NC, and thats before you even bring the likes of KS and Denman into the picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Come off it mate, both NC and MDB have improved in leaps and bounds since that run. It was NC's first run of the season and I believe he made a bad mistake there. Our Vic who was second did not stay. If you are judging both horses on that run Knowhere beat NC 11 lengths (knowhere recieving 6lbs). That puts Knowhere just behind Denman in last years Gold Cup! I think the L&C means nothing when comparing the two horses. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Come off it mate, both NC and MDB have improved in leaps and bounds since that run. It was NC's first run of the season and I believe he made a bad mistake there. If you are judging both horses on that run Knowhere beat NC 11 lengths who was recieving 6. That puts Knowhere alongside Denman in last years Gold Cup! Ginge I was using that run as a direct comparison between MDB and NC as it was at Cheltenham over a smiliar (but not quite) distance that the GC was run. Wasn't judging who had beaten NC or MDB, or by what distance. (Its completely irrelevant imo) just the direct match up between the 2 horses. "It was NC's first run of the year and I believe he made a bad mistake". This only enhamces NC's chances surely? that he beat MDB by 8 1/2l and possibly needed the run?? The question I posed was has MDB improved beyond NC since that run in Jan '08? I would suggest not, and would also suggest that NC's course form is on the whole better than MDB's. I didnt for one minute suggest that they hadnt both come on leaps and bounds?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Realise that RB, just don't see how anything can be judged on the L&C result. For what it is worth I do believe MDB has shown better form now, than NC's run in the L&C. However NC has shown even better form. Although it is a big guess what MDB showed last time. With no other horse bar possibly Niche Market not running anywhere near form. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Realise that RB, just don't see how anything can be judged on the L&C result. Ginge The way I see it (and this is a personal view, and remember Im nowhere near an expert) is.... MDB and NC are closely matched in the GC market, and are both being fancied as the ones to take on KS/Denman (if he runs). As we know, Cheltenham on the whole is a specialist track and it takes some getting, especially coming up that hill. I look at previous course encounters between horses that I struggle to separate in the betting. I therefore took the L&C encounter between these 2 as my starting basis. NC beat MDB by 8 1/2 l giving 4 lbs and off an OR 7lb higher over a similar distance to GC. (as yoiu rightly state, NC made a glaring error, which could have made the distance greater). Both have since run at an extraordinarily high level on just about every outing and have risen (13lb NC) and (15lb MDB) on official ratings. The OR still have MDB 5lb behind NC, so although the handicapper has seen slightly more improvement from MDB since that occasion is it enough to suggest that he should finish ahead of NC? Just to add, I actually believe that MDB's rating is slightly false, in that he achieved it in destroying Denman LTO, but I don't think anything ran to form at all in the race other than MDB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman GRR.....stop editing whilst Im typing LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Madison has poor Cheltenham form, but his best season is this year. He is a 170s horse now and not a 150 handicapper anymore. I won't say certainly he won't be suited by Cheltenham. We will see on Friday the 13th ;) I think he will run a very nice race. But for me Neptune Collonges has a great chance. He should definitely improve after last year and if Denman is not right he has only Kauto Star to beat and I think he will. The way he jumped lto was fantastic. Out and out galloper, who will relish Cheltenham and he showed he likes the track last year. I really think he has the beating of Kauto Star. I certainly won't ignore Denman yet, because if his desire is back and if he has improved, he could still have a say. The drift is a bit worrying though. Or is it because Harry said not to back him? There's no reason for Neptune not to run a better race. And if he does so, he will win the GC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Now just watch on good ground how one of the big priced good ground lovers Air Force One, Star De Mohaison or Albertas Run wins it :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman GRR.....stop editing whilst Im typing LOL Sorry :lol. Although our methods are very different RB, I think we have come to the same conclusion.:ok Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Sorry :lol. Although our methods are very different RB, I think we have come to the same conclusion.:ok Ginge I look at it in a very simple manner mate, my mind doesnt take in anything too complicated :lol Now just watch on good ground how one of the big priced good ground lovers Air Force One' date=' Star De Mohaison or Albertas Run wins it :D[/quote'] Isn't Star De Mohaison running in the William Hill?? Albertas Run has even more to find than Denman on the evidence of their flops LTO. Air Force One is interesting...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Sorry :lol. Although our methods are very different RB, I think we have come to the same conclusion.:ok I am on the same conclusion using two very simple methods. Madison needs to improve a bit to match Neptune's 3rd from form last year. But Neptune has probably improved since then and will run a career best this term. And from the two .. the gray is the one, who is suited more by the track, so I'd rather be on him at 6/1 than on Madison at 8/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Mileni, Think we should not forget that even though Kauto Star was not at his best last year, he still beat Neptunes Collonges. Kauto should be favourite, he has the best chance of winning. Just not value to win, unlike NC. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Now we all agree!:ok Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Isn't Star De Mohaison running in the William Hill?? Albertas Run has even more to find than Denman on the evidence of their flops LTO. Air Force One is interesting...... Dunno what they've decided for SDM, but he is drifting for the GC, so probably you are right. Albertas Run has absolutely no chance imo. Even for a place. Air Force One form from the Hennessy doesn't look bad with MDB winning the AON and I am on 33/1 just in case the ground is good (taken when the forecasts were for slogs). One horse nobody seems to mention is Barbers Shop. I havent' really thought about him, because he only ran a 2nd in the Paddy Power and that's it. He's been very well backed on the exchanges though in the last few days and is now 16/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Mileni, Think we should not forget that even though Kauto Star was not at his best last year, he still beat Neptunes Collonges. Kauto should be favourite, he has the best chance of winning. Just not value to win, unlike NC. Ginge But, NC has improved since that run and KS is by no means a lover of the Cheltenham track. Has KS improved on what he has shown previously?? I doubt it..... That being said, at his best, he is a good 10/15 l better off than he was last year, so the big question is, if KS is at his absolute best, has NC improved enough to not only gain the distance he lost to Denman but also the potential distance he could have lost to KS? KS a worthy fav at his very best form. Value to win on his bare Cheltenham form?? No thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Mileni, Think we should not forget that even though Kauto Star was not at his best last year, he still beat Neptunes Collonges. Kauto should be favourite, he has the best chance of winning. Just not value to win, unlike NC. Ginge If I take the value angle I am definitely with you and I've said it here many times. But I just think Kauto's mark is biased on Kempton form and NC could beat him at Cheltenham. He is likely to find an improvement after his Irish win and being one year younger he is on the up. Is it only the injury scare last year that makes you say KS wasn't 100%? I don't think there was anything wrong with him. I think there was no horse on the day who could have coped with Denman's gallop. P.S. I already took the value angle and have NC at 14.5, so Kauto at 2/1 .. no thanks ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Although Kauto's run last season was his best performance at Cheltenham, it was nowhere near his right-handed form. Kauto Star was never travelling the way he can. Should have been able to go with Denman, at least for 2 3/4 miles. It might be that Kauto Star is just not as good at Cheltenham / left-handed. Yet he still has better form than Neptunes Collonges at Cheltenham (by a short head). It is still possible the run was nothing to do with course or going the wrong way around. It could be something to do with the injury recieved at Ascot. If so, he might be capable of running to his very best form, if so KS will win easily. Therefore Kauto Star deserves to be favourite. But I do not believe he has a better than 33% 2/1 chance so is not (imo) value. Neptunes Collonges I believe has a better than 14% 6/1 chance of winning so is value. P.S. Not that I need to back it Mileni, like you I have also backed it ante-post. Soon after last years race. Took 29/1 (beat you Mileni:tongue2), tipped in my last last years thread at 24/1. Does not stop me backing other horses if I think they are also value, taken 14/1 Exotic Dancer. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman I'd estimate it at this point in time Kauto Star has about a 26% 11/4 chance and Neptunes Collonges an 18% 9/2 chance. Would not say either horse has improved this season. Though Neptunes is unexposed at 3 1/4m and may be capable of better form than he's shown to date. Kauto Star is capable of far better form than his stable companion though, if (big IF) he runs to that form. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman key trials are normally KG, Aon, Lexus, Irish hennessy so we have the obvious shortlist of Kauto, Exotic, MDB, Neptune. We know ED never beats Kauto unless Jonjo has managed to hypnotise him this year?? KS beat NC last year no problem & IMO ran under par in defeat to Denman. KS has only ever ran 1 good race at the course & that was Gold cup win in 2007. The value might still be ED at a nice price. I personally think they will be 1-2-3-4 in the absence of Denman. If it runs, Denman may scrape ito that 4 if Nicholls has improved its fitness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Denman What about Denman though? Denman comes out at Kempton, a track that just doesn't suit (right handed, tight, etc.). It badly needs the run after a prolonged break. It's up against a confirmed, dyed in the wool front runner and Denman, in the words of his trainer won't go past horses. Denman looks agitated, they say it's always uptight. He seemingly runs badly but still sees off Albertas and a few others. His price drifts alarmingly, etc. He still finished second and wasn't exactly asked too many questions. Now, suddenly, they're saying it's got it's sparkle back at this late stage. ?? Personally, I still think Kauto was nowhere near right last year after the leg injury then lameness. A fully fit and right Kauto gets a lot closer to a fully fit Denman. Kauto was jumping like a novice hurdler from the first fence last year, he should have been mothballed till this season. The rest there are too many questions with. Does MDB get Cheltenham? Will the going affect a temperamental Albertas? Can Exotic suddenly get the better of Kauto? Which Air Force will turn up? Has Neptune done enough to improve on last year? I think the new approach with Kauto, ie., less racing, more prep work, will probably see Kauto regain his crown. I won't be wasting any of my hard earned on it though, a watching brief in my favourite chair, with a fine malt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Denman regarding kauto star -he will have to overcome 2 long standing hoodoos,firstly no horse as ever regained his crownand,secondly the last winnero improve on a placed effort from 12 mnths earlier was bregawn in 1983 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Denman Can Kauto do it? YES HE CAN! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Denman time will tell but history tends to repeat itself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Denman regarding kauto star -he will have to overcome 2 long standing hoodoos' date='firstly no horse as ever regained his crownand,secondly the last winnero improve on a placed effort from 12 mnths earlier was bregawn in 1983[/quote'] History is full of things happening for the first time. Before Voy Por won the Queen Mum they said few 6 year olds had won. Twelve months later they said no 5 year old had won. It is difficult for a horse to be as good as he was two years later. But Kauto Star has already proved he is as good as he was two years ago. If he gets beat it will have nothing to do with history. In the eighties you had a far better chance of winning the Derby if the horses name began with "S". The vast majority of placed horses are exposed (unlikely to improve) so are unlikely to improve in to a gold Cup winner. Others are too slow or don't quite stay the trip. Neptunes Collonges is fast enough, stays far enough and is unexposed at the trip. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Denman All the diffrent views and opinions is top shelf who the hell needs Francome & big mac etc its really buiding up all good reading fellas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Denman There was a bit of an interview with Harry Findlay in the paper on Saturday and he pretty much wrote off Denman's chances, he didn't think he was the same horse as last year at all and was certainly speaking as if it was already beaten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Denman Neptune usurps Denman in Gold Cup betting By RP Staff3.06PM 1 MAR 2009 DENMAN, who has been on the drift on the exchanges following part-owner Harry Findlay's downbeat comments at a Cheltenham Festival preview on Thursday evening, has been relegated to third favourite for the Gold Cup with Ladbrokes. Three weeks after the nine-year-old's lacklustre return at Kempton, Findlay warned "I don't think we'll see the real Denman again" and hinted that he may not even run. RELATED LINKS »Denman form »Gold Cup betting »Champion Hurdle betting This caused last year's winner to drift out to as big as 11.0 on the exchanges and the Paul Nicholls inmate has now been pushed out to 7-1 from 5-1 by Ladbrokes, with last year's third, Neptune Collonges usurping him as second favourite at 6-1. Last year's second Kauto Star remains a strong 6-4 favourite with Ladbrokes to regain his 2007 crown. Having been virtually unopposable at the head of the Champion Hurdle market since his reappearance win at Haydock, support for Binocular was also waning on Sunday. The Nicky Henderson-trained five-year-old, who missed a week's work due to the wintry weather last month, was workmanlike during his racecourse gallop at Kempton last week and is now a very weak 7-4 on Betfair on Sunday afternoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 2, 2009 Author Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: Denman Some massive money for Denman, who shortened from 9.0 to 6.6 on Betfair few hours ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted March 2, 2009 Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: Denman Some massive money for Denman' date=' who shortened from 9.0 to 6.6 on Betfair few hours ago.[/quote'] That could be due to him schoolng well this morning.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted March 2, 2009 Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: Denman Out to 7.4 now. No huge amounts from 9.0 to 6.0 a couple of K here and there. Most of the money already on at far lower prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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