Gingertipster Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman Duplicated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman Rondetto, It may well be the second half of the race was quicker, particularly the back straight. But the other times on the day were (according to the Racing Post): slow by 15.4 sec, 16.2 sec, 10.8 sec (2m), 19.1 sec, 22.2, 421.2 sec (surely not), 11.6 sec (2m) and 12.4 sec (2m). As you would expect on soft going, the races at 2 miles had the faster times (compared to the standard times). Denman's overall time over 3m2f 110 yrds was 8.8 sec slow. So not only was it the fastest time (closer to the standard time than any other race on the day). But per furlong it was significantly faster. You must have missed that when you looked at the over all time. As far as staying the trip goes. I suppose you could say Kauto Star stays the trip. But his best form (by some way) is over shorter. That could just be because of those runs being at Cheltenham or just not at his best. I do believe Denman may well have beaten Kauto by further had he not been given quite such an aggressive ride. Tired badly after the last. So yes, Kauto was gaining on Denman at the end, but Neptunes was gaining on Kauto. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman Rondetto, It may well be the second half of the race was quicker, particularly the back straight. But the other times on the day were (according to the Racing Post): slow by 15.4 sec, 16.2 sec, 10.8 sec (2m), 19.1 sec, 22.2, 421.2 sec (surely not), 11.6 sec (2m) and 12.4 sec (2m). As you would expect on soft going, the races at 2 miles had the faster times (compared to the standard times). Denman's overall time over 3m2f 110 yrds was 8.8 sec slow. So not only was it the fastest time (closer to the standard time than any other race on the day). But per furlong it was significantly faster. You must have missed that when you looked at the over all time. As far as staying the trip goes. I suppose you could say Kauto Star stays the trip. But his best form (by some way) is over shorter. That could just be because of those runs being at Cheltenham or just not at his best. I do believe Denman may well have beaten Kauto by further had he not been given quite such an aggressive ride. Tired badly after the last. So yes, Kauto was gaining on Denman at the end, but Neptunes was gaining on Kauto. Ginge Didnt Neptunes make a glaring error at the last as well??? and was still gaining on Kauto? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman Didnt Neptunes make a glaring error at the last as well??? and was still gaining on Kauto? He made an error but I am not sure it was at the last fence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman I cant find the full race for love nor money, dont know why, this is all i can find some good comments at the bottom of the clip, can anyone else find the full race i might have it on video, would be good to see the last 5/6 fences etc. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcaUWd2ad9Q&feature=related Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman A little more i found, http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-GB&vid=0d3d6a5c-1f65-48eb-926a-36b7d7067f90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
megaoasisfan Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman at this stage, its virtually impossible to know what will win etc etc....but if we're talking value, i'm sticking with Denman, each way is most definitely the way to go here for me, as if it runs surely one would asume it to be in good health/condition, had its comeback run now etc (even if it was just satisfactory and raises questions) and sure theres other value each way bets to be had, but Sam Thomas will give his all as you would expect and in my opinion will not finish out of the frame, be it 1st or 5 lengths behind Kauto Star in 2nd, or say one of the others NC ED MBD runs into a placing, in 3rd, still can't see Denman out of the frame.....to win is another matter, but for me i think its a better bet to have Denman each way than to have a too short a priced Kauto Star who at the course does still have a bit to find with denman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman Has a bit to find with last years Denman. Has nothing to find on Saturday's performance. I really hope Denman can get back to his best I would love to see the top 2 neck and neck battling up the hill at Cheltenham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Denman The gold cup is far from a two horse race even if Denman is well and runs. Exotic Dancer had a proper season this time and not a interrupted preparation like last year. Neptune was close and he's one that will peak in the next two seasons, so could easily improve another 5lbs and be close to his stablemates. Madison beat Denman, so clearly a player. And Star De Mohaison will have a say too if he gets conditions right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 17, 2009 Author Share Posted February 17, 2009 Re: Denman Corals the first to go no runner no bet on the four big races. I may back Denman at 5/1 with chances of him being pulled out of the race if he's not back to his best. If he makes it, then he would be no bigger than 7/2 I'd say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 Re: Denman Yep corals no runner no bet on the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, World Hurdle & Gold Cup. I think I am going to pass the gold cup this year, I have a bet on Neptune Collonges at 9's but that will be the end of my betting on as KS and Denman really haven't proven that they are at there best. The 5/1 available on Neptune seems a bit tight as if either KS or Denman run to near standard he won't stand a chance. I really would like to see Denman retain his crown and I don't doubt Nicholls is capable to get him ready but he certainly will need to improve, which im sure he will. Though a big improvement is needed. Will certainly be interesting again.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Denman Just watched the Paul Nicholls video on ATR and he looked extremely happy with Denman. Said the old sparkle's back and he has improved a lot since Kempton. Jockey liked his work-out too. That's good news. They really seemed to like what they've seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Denman Good to hear that Mileni. I think if Denman finishes in the first 3 Nichols will be over the moon as he could well go on and improve then next year. Maybe never as good as he has ran but you never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Denman He was extremely positive when I watched it. Cheltenham has always suited gallopers, so if he's anywhere near his best I am on him and Neptune for the Gold Cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Denman Have you got a link for the video? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Denman Just watched the Paul Nicholls video on ATR and he looked extremely happy with Denman. Said the old sparkle's back and he has improved a lot since Kempton. Jockey liked his work-out too. That's good news. They really seemed to like what they've seen. He also said before Kempton he is as good as ever. Then after the race he said he'd wonder if he'd ever get him back. I really think Nicholls' comment on this horse should be taken with a pinch of salt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Denman I saw the interview and I think Billy is right, Nicholls has a habbit of being optimistic in the lead up to races. I prefer to judge Denman on what I see. His coat I thought was poor and body language wasn't great either. Did not look a happy horse. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Denman I saw the interview and I think Billy is right, Nicholls has a habbit of being optimistic in the lead up to races. I prefer to judge Denman on what I see. His coat I thought was poor and body language wasn't great either. Did not look a happy horse. Ginge Around abour Late Jan/Early Feb last year there was a fitness scare regarding Kauto Star last year if I remember rightly?? Nicholls came out a couple weeks prior saying he was back on top form and would be at his absolute best come GC day. Kind of funny he is attributing similar types of comments about Denman this year..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Re: Denman Denman's part-owner Harry Findlay has admitted significant doubts about his horse's chances of lifting the Cheltenham Gold Cup again. The well-known professional gambler, who was speaking at a Festival preview at Exeter racecourse, believes the stunning defeat of stablemates Kauto Star and Neptune Collonges last March may have taken its toll. "On the day at Cheltenham, when Denman turned for home he was gone. When Denman jumped the last he was completely gone. I think he was a gone horse well before the last," he said. "Because of what happened, I said within 24 hours of the race Neptune Collonges was the value each-way this year. Top sporting events, be they equine, canine or human, leave big scars. "I don't think we'll see the real Denman again. I hope we do and he is in the greatest hands you could possibly have, but if I was betting on it, I don't think he's a certainty to run." Reflecting on Denman's long-awaited reappearance, when he was well beaten by Madison Du Berlais, he added: "The race at Kempton was the last piece of the jigsaw. "But once a horse has won a Gold Cup and had a heart problem - Paul (Nicholls) said two months before the start of the season he couldn't move. He took two and a half months to get over it. We all know what we saw (at Kempton)." Nicholls, who was also on the expert panel, added: "For the first time this morning (Thursday), Denman really sparkled. I was going to take him for a racecourse gallop, but I don't think there's a need to now. "Kauto Star is a brilliant workhorse, Denman isn't. Paul (Barber, Denman's other part-owner) is keen to run and the way it is at the moment, there's no reason not to." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman 1st-Madison Du Berlais 2nd-Air force one 3rd Kauto star Sorry folks Denman will not be winning the gold cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Am I the only person who doesn't trust a word that comes out of Findlay/Nicholls mouths when it comes to Denman? Last year, we had the 5/1 starting price for the Hennessy when Denman was "fat". Last year's GC, despite 2 setbacks for Kauto, they still talked up Kauto's chances when he was clearly not right, thus keeping Denman relatively well priced. You can get 5s on Denman now. I'm not into second guessing Findlay on this one, I suspect he'll have a healthy sum on his own particular fancy, whilst I suspect we'll all be fed more disinformation next week than the politburo did during the entire Cold War era. Normally Nicholls is pretty straight up and great info but when it comes to Denman, and only Denman... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman I agree with you there Diamond, I wouldnt trust a word. Denman is a machine of an animal on his day but lto he just looked nothing like the Denman we know (and love). He is currently sitting at 6/1 which is unbelievable as I never though Denman would ever be available at over 2/1 again after his Gold Cup performance last year. I really am tempted to stick on a bit at 6's but Im not going to as you really don't know what you are betting on. If its the Denman of last year then its a sublime bet but if it isn't... I'll be a spectator I think and just shout Denman home, even though I have money on Neptune from months ago. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Am I the only person who doesn't trust a word that comes out of Findlay/Nicholls mouths when it comes to Denman? Last year, we had the 5/1 starting price for the Hennessy when Denman was "fat". Last year's GC, despite 2 setbacks for Kauto, they still talked up Kauto's chances when he was clearly not right, thus keeping Denman relatively well priced. You can get 5s on Denman now. I'm not into second guessing Findlay on this one, I suspect he'll have a healthy sum on his own particular fancy, whilst I suspect we'll all be fed more disinformation next week than the politburo did during the entire Cold War era. Normally Nicholls is pretty straight up and great info but when it comes to Denman, and only Denman... Totaly agree fella, it wont win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Am I the only person who doesn't trust a word that comes out of Findlay/Nicholls mouths when it comes to Denman? Last year, we had the 5/1 starting price for the Hennessy when Denman was "fat". Last year's GC, despite 2 setbacks for Kauto, they still talked up Kauto's chances when he was clearly not right, thus keeping Denman relatively well priced. You can get 5s on Denman now. I'm not into second guessing Findlay on this one, I suspect he'll have a healthy sum on his own particular fancy, whilst I suspect we'll all be fed more disinformation next week than the politburo did during the entire Cold War era. Why don't you trust Findlay? Conspiracy theorists eh? A long time before the Gold Cup he was shouting from the roof tops how good Denman was and how he was going to beat Kauto Star. Which was exactly what happened. He could easily have said "he has a lot to find blah blah", to push the price out for his own bet. But he did not. I think he was also quite confident of the Hennessy. Very few top weights have won that race, so you can't blame a trainer having doubts. Not since Burrough Hill Lad was there as good a Hennessy perfomance. And Nicholls thought he could be made fitter. Prior to the day there all the talk was of how good Denman was going to be. Nicholls probably tried to redress the balance. Findlay and Nicholls can only go by what they see. Surely it is up to everyone to come to their own opinion. You have to allow for the chance of running below par after injury, in the price you're willing to take. For me Kauto was a must to take on (at the price) last year. As Denman was on his reappearance and in two weeks time. Unless he looks a lot better in the paddock I would not take 10/1 after Kempton. 6/1 now available. Listen to Nicholls, but he is no odds compiler, he gets it wrong as we all sometimes do. He said Gungadu should not be anywhere near favourite in the Racing Post Chase last year, but he won. So what, he got it wrong. I'd much rather he said what he believes instead of the Tony Martin / Jnjo O'Neil school who remain tight-lipped. Findlay is an odds compiler, to a certain degree. So when he says he would not back it at 6/1, take note. That is not to say he would not back it at 12/1 and don't blame him if Denman does win. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman Ginge, its hard what to make of it as the trainer nicholls seems upbeat, yet findlay seems down beat, am also with you i would not take 10/1 on Denman and hes also not 100% to even run, it also really is a shame as yes he was a machine, but i just dont think he is the same horse he was but just like any great they are only at the top for a short while, last march was his peak i feel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman not sure about all this as i think Denman is a good ew price at around 7/1+, it will still beat most of those who intend to turn up. The horse has only been beaten twice in its career. If it lines up, it wont be that price IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman 1st-Madison Du Berlais 2nd-Air force one 3rd Kauto star Sorry folks Denman will not be winning the gold cup. Brave man with that F/C, given the likely presence of the Nicholls trio. All 3 won't finish out of the top 2 imo..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman not sure about all this as i think Denman is a good ew price at around 7/1+' date=' it will still beat most of those who intend to turn up. The horse has only been beaten twice in its career. If it lines up, it wont be that price IMO[/quote'] If he runs Bowles. Big IF. In my mind it is no better than 50-50 him running. Then I would not be at all surprised to see him pulled up early. Going through the pain barrier again I don't think he'll come back. Given time, it is still possible. May well be a better win bet than each way. Because you have to double or half the stake; if A1 has a big chance, if not A1 is likely to be a long way below form so out of the places too. If known back to his best Denman would start 13/8 fav. But he's 8/1 on the exchanges. Of course we do not know, but I think the betting will tell us more about whether Denman will win than the voices of Nicholls or Finlay. If you see his price getting down to 3/1 you might think about backing it. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman madison du berlais 5 runs at Cheltenham finished 3-6-7-3-5 its OR is now 169 following the Kempton win with Denman on 182. 3 of its wins have come at Newbury which is a stayers track. Course form just doesnt do it for me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Denman We do keep disagreeing Bowles don't we?:lol Madison may not have won at Cheltenham. But he was placed in the Grand Annual, putting up (at that time) his best performance. Though I do not rate him as value at current prices. Much rather back Neptunes Collonges and Exotic Dancer. Possibly Notre Pere if it looks as though it'll be soft. Newbury is a gallopping track, true it is to a certain degree you do need stamina. But you need even more of it around the undulating course of Cheltenham. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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