Denman

[Rondetto]

Re: Denman

Yes, Perhaps I should have added that was my own reading of the race. Yes KS was a top class 2 miler, thats never been in doubt. (Was an ante-post fav for the Arkle before "that ride where he fell and was remounted", if I remember right). The point I was trying to make was KS, has always gone a steady pace over the 3m before bursting away in the last mile. Walsh knew how good Denman was/is and knew that he couldnt let him get away, so the fact that Denman went such a strong gallop, completely threw KS off any sort of rhythm /(or never allowed KS get into any sort of rhythm). There is also Cheltenham not suiting as well perhaps. (didnt he fall in the QM chase???)

You are talking about something that simply never happened RB. Ruby and others made it perfectly clear there was no great pace in the race and that wasn't the problem. The first sign of trouble was as early as the first fence second time round when Denman had only just taken it up. We know Dernman increased the pace but the writing was on the wall way before that happened. Denman would need to sprout wings to take Kauto Star of his feet on a going day. He has a tremendously high cruising speed which we have seen time and time again.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Denman Good debate :ok Here something for you, which I don't usually share, because I am told these things only to keep them for myself. The following e-mail was sent to me from a certain individual who has connections to Nicholls and especially Harry Findlay. Copy and paste of the message I got sent straight after the Hennessy. "Denman is the best horse in the stable and probably in training. They all have to find a lot of improvement to have any sort of a chance. Everything is playing for 2nd place including Kauto Star." If Denman will ever be back to his best, that's another question, but I won't doubt his GC win. Cheers :ok

[TOP CAT]

Re: Denman

If I was Ruby Walsh and Id seen that Id have gone up and clouted the smug bastard!! One thing to be jubilant and celebrate a victory by throwing hands in air. Another thing completely to turn and face your distant rival and basically mock him.

I was on the winner but could not agree with you more, i always remember paul carberry doing it to BEST MATE when he was on Beef or salmon just no need for it and is very unsporting to carry out such crazy gesture. :(

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Denman

Denman would need to sprout wings to take Kauto Star of his feet on a going day. He has a tremendously high cruising speed which we have seen time and time again.

Over 3m 2f at Cheltenham??? And we have never seen his high cruising speed at Cheltenham, even when winning his Gold Cup.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Denman Absolutely nothing wrong with Scudamores celebrations, well done to him and Berlais. I honestly believe we have not had a top class Gold Cup for years and years, I think the race is considerably overrated and Denman and Kauto Star are the best of a bad bunch in my opinion.

[TOP CAT]

Re: Denman

The other thing about todays race was that the winner was the thorough stayer in the pack, Pipe & Scu knew they would get this horse home on this ground & decided to take Denman on (much like Denman did to KS in last years GC!). Todays time was 30 secs slower than KS KIng George win so we can safely say that Denman & Albertas Run ran below form. Joe Lively had excuses with the injury & the others werent good enough. Cheltenham will bring another set of problems for all & personally for me the trends will be key as they will rule out a number of horses.

Your info is spot on but was the ground worse at kemp than on boxing day, look at the snow we have had kemp was lucky to be on they done a 8am inspec, but never done that on the 26th dec, gold cup day in march is about the ground but we know one thing Madison loves the soft/heavy ground.

[TOP CAT]

Re: Denman

Good debate :ok Here something for you, which I don't usually share, because I am told these things only to keep them for myself. The following e-mail was sent to me from a certain individual who has connections to Nicholls and especially Harry Findlay. Copy and paste of the message I got sent straight after the Hennessy. "Denman is the best horse in the stable and probably in training. They all have to find a lot of improvement to have any sort of a chance. Everything is playing for 2nd place including Kauto Star." If Denman will ever be back to his best, that's another question, but I won't doubt his GC win. Cheers :ok

Yes but lets face it Denman still now has to prove himself and its going to be very tough to now prove himself next at chelt, if Madison also improves (very poss) and his ground comes up on gold cup day (HE WINS) 9/1 @ hills

[TOP CAT]

Re: Denman

Absolutely nothing wrong with Scudamores celebrations, well done to him and Berlais. I honestly believe we have not had a top class Gold Cup for years and years, I think the race is considerably overrated and Denman and Kauto Star are the best of a bad bunch in my opinion.

Whatever your smoking dont take it over the border, your talking rubbish.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Denman

Yes but lets face it Denman still now has to prove himself and its going to be very tough to now prove himself next at chelt' date= if Madison also improves (very poss) and his ground comes up on gold cup day (HE WINS) 9/1 @ hills

Gonna wait and see how Air Force One will do in the Irish Hennesy, mate. This will give me a clue how good Madison actually is. But if Neptune Collagnes beats Air Force One easily, then I am not touching anything of this 8/1 for Madison. The GN weights are announced on Tuesday and we may have news that Denman is not going to Cheltenham.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Denman

Whatever your smoking dont take it over the border' date= your talikng rubbish.

:lol

[TOP CAT]

Re: Denman

Absolutely nothing wrong with Scudamores celebrations, well done to him and Berlais. I honestly believe we have not had a top class Gold Cup for years and years, I think the race is considerably overrated and Denman and Kauto Star are the best of a bad bunch in my opinion.

Anyone ?

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Denman DENMAN continues to drift in the market for the Totesport Gold Cup following his comeback defeat at Kempton on Saturday. Coral have pushed the Paul Nicholls-trained runner out to 9-2 (from 7-2) while cutting his Kempton conqueror Madison Du Berlais into 8-1 (from 10) for the same race. RELATED LINKS

• »Gold Cup card
• »Gold Cup betting
• »Arkle betting
• »Champion Hurdle betting

Coral's spokesman David Stephens said: "Unsurprisingly, Denman has been friendless for the Gold Cup since losing his unbeaten record over fences, but by contrast the 10-1 on offer for Madison Du Berlais has proved popular. "David Pipe's charge is now single-figure odds to prove his Kempton win was no fluke." Air Force One has also been supported for the Gold Cup and is into 33-1 (from 40) with Skybet.

[TOP CAT]

Re: Denman Air force one could poss be a bit of a dark horse, god i cant wait, i have watched chelt even from being a wee boy aged around 8/9, its next month holly sh*t.

[welshman443]

Re: Denman Denman will be freshened up and prepared to defend his totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup crown without another outing after suffering a rare reverse on his seasonal debut at Kempton. His 23-length defeat by Madison Du Berlais was the nine-year-old's first loss over fences in 10 starts, and saw him deposed at the head of the betting for the blue riband. His stablemate and 2007 winner Kauto Star replaced him as favourite in the ante-post markets, but Nicholls reports the 13-times winner to have emerged from his first outing in 11 months in good order. Nicholls said: "He has come out of the race fine. His heart was checked after the race was that was normal and he ate up on Saturday night. "I've of the same opinion as Saturday about his run in that it was a satisfactory comeback but he does need to improve. "The plan is no different as if he had won and we will prepare him for Cheltenham now." However, his defeat has not made a tilt at the John Smith's Grand National any more or less likely, with the weights for the world-famous handicap set to be unveiled in London on Tuesday. "I am not going to rule the National in or out," Nicholls added. "He has an entry and I will discuss it with (owners) Paul Barber and Harry Findlay. "We will have to see how he is this week and how things work out."

[Rondetto]

Re: Denman

Anyone ?

Denman a string of wins owners would die for. Kauto Star winner of 3 King George's and a Gold Cup. There the best seen around since I was knee high to a grashooper with the exception of Master Minded who, distance aside, looks the best since the great Arkle to me. Great times are upon us and we should be thankful. To think we have 3 maginificent animals coming out of the same yard at the same time is simply mind bogglng.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Denman Trainer Paul Nicholls said: "I met with Paul Barber and Harry Findlay on Sunday night and we decided not to aim Denman at the National. "I want to concentrate on getting him right for the Gold Cup. I phoned Phil Smith, the handicapper, on Sunday to let him no our intentions and to givehim time to adjust the National weights." Weights for the Aintree showpiece will be unveiled on racingpost.com at 11am on Tuesday.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Denman Great times indeed...a ew bet on denman?? im dreaming :D

[Gingertipster]

Re: Denman Rondetto, Of course Madison Du Berlais did not run to the same form in the 2007 Hennessey as on Saturday. It was his 07/08 form I was judging him on. After getting a 20 length beating receiving 13lbs from Denman, Madison went on to be 1 ¾ lengths 2nd to Vodka Bleu in the Silver Cup at Ascot. Trying to give his stable companion 20lbs. Vodka Bleu confirmed that form on his next run, winning a Cheltenham under 10st 13lbs. Prices, 50/1 or whatever, do not matter if the form is franked at a later date. It did not stop Madison winning this years Hennessey backed down to 25/1 from 66/1. Dream Alliance, 2nd beaten eased down by 11 lengths receiving 19 lbs in the Hennessey. His jumping went to pieces afterwards, though might have won but for a fall at Exeter. Character Building, beaten 19 lengths receiving 26 lbs, 3rd on his reappearance. Got an injury and did not run again that term. However, the previous season was ¾ length 2nd in the National Hunt Chase to Butler's Cabin under level weights; idling close home. Character building ran poorly on unsuitably firm ground in the Scottish National on his last start of 06/07. But Butler's Cabin franked the form by winning the Irish equivalent. My point about Ruby's loyalty is that before last years Gold Cup, Kauto Star had won him a Tingle Creek, two Betfair Chase, two king Georges and a previous Gold Cup. It would be very difficult for Ruby to get off Kauto Star, to ride one that was yet to win a grade 1 out of his Novice year. This time around, even before Saturday, it would be difficult to get off Kauto after his brilliant recent King George win. Especially as Denman has had health problems since his Cheltenham victory. Snowy Mountain? I take it you mean Snowy Morning. Sorry I do get Mansony confused with Mossbank. Do agree Mossbank was below form, but was beaten too far out for it to be a stamina issue. Don't see any reason not to believe Snowy Morning did not run to form at Punchestown. Some horses do run well after Aintree. Neptunes and Snowy also beat the 4th Mr Top Notch by 25 and 18 lengths; more than what you'd expect them to do by running to form. I think it is a little too difficult to think only one of the nine runners ran to form. I note you do not criticise Nipper's “form” with Exotic Dancer. Yes, there have been better Gold Cup winners than Neptunes Collonges but not many better third's. May have further improvement in him too. It may surprise you, but after Denman's injury I also believe Kauto Star has the best chance of winning the Gold Cup this season, so should be favourite. Even his below form 2nd may be good enough to win it this year; and may be capable of a bit better given a sounder surface. It is just his price that makes him opposable, with others being good prices. Form is a matter of opinion Rondetto, as we have seen. It is not Denman's fault Dream Alliance's jumping went to pieces afterwards. Unless you believe the Hobbs horse ran to form when subsequently failing to complete. Or that Character Building got injured. Or Exotic Dancer was not at his best at Cheltenham. But you can look back as well as forward when assessing form. Can not see why you have dismissed Madison. As for driving a bus through my form analysis. At least Timeform agree with me that Denman is a “great horse” (rated 180 or more). You might think it is a bold statement to say Denman is a better horse than Kauto Star at Cheltenham. What Cheltenham form line is it that you believe gives Kauto Star a better rating than Denman? A five length beating of Turpin Green perhaps? It is surely an even bolder statement to say Kauto is better. Only when he puts up a form performance better than Denman can he be thought of as a better Cheltenham horse than Denman. Harry's statement could also suggest Denman is not the horse he was, as Nicholls comments after the race imply. You seem to think if Kauto Star beats Denman this time it will prove you right. It will only be where other horses finish that will determine the level of form. I expect Kauto to beat Denman this year too, because Harry's horse is not the horse he was. I back horses which I consider value Rondetto, have already got over 20/1 about Neptune Collonges not each way. Not because I thought he would win, but because he was / is value to win. When both KS and D may not run to form it is (imo) the right thing to do if you consider the prices of the front two too short. At 7/4 (36.4%) and 9/2 (18.2%) best prices they are 54.6% together (between 10/11 and 4/5 coupled). AT THIS STAGE neither seems to be value. Interesting thread, always good to read different / opposing views. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Denman

You are talking about something that simply never happened RB. Ruby and others made it perfectly clear there was no great pace in the race and that wasn't the problem. The first sign of trouble was as early as the first fence second time round when Denman had only just taken it up. We know Dernman increased the pace but the writing was on the wall way before that happened. Denman would need to sprout wings to take Kauto Star of his feet on a going day. He has a tremendously high cruising speed which we have seen time and time again.

Take a look at the time yourself and do not rely on beaten jockeys to tell you what the pace was. Their opinion, even if they are telling the truth, is biased. It was a strongly run pace, though I do agree Kauto should have been able to live with it. Ginge

[TOP CAT]

Re: Denman

Denman a string of wins owners would die for. Kauto Star winner of 3 King George's and a Gold Cup. There the best seen around since I was knee high to a grashooper with the exception of Master Minded who, distance aside, looks the best since the great Arkle to me. Great times are upon us and we should be thankful. To think we have 3 maginificent animals coming out of the same yard at the same time is simply mind bogglng.

I thank you sir. :clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Denman Here some thoughts about the Gold Cup. As things stand at the minute, it's looking like Denman won't be anywhere near his form this season. The Gold Cup will probably come too soon for him and he is vulnerable to something unexposed. Will love to see him win, but there are too many questions to answer now, aren't they? Katuo Star is poor value at 2/1 and I am not touching this. Pipe admitted Madison won't be suited to Cheltenham as much as the Nicholls horses and I agree. I think 8/1 is a poor value for him. If I approach it like Gingertipster I am more than happy with my 14s on Neptune Collanges. He's a 6/1-7/1 chance according to my book. And my outside bet on Star De Mohaison at 50s is also a value. He is a 25/1 shot on good / good to soft and 33/1 - 40/1 on soft / heavy. Neptune still has improvement in him and I hope he shows it this weekend. I would love to see Chock Thornton taking the ride on him. SDM needs better ground and has an outside chance. If the ground is softish can't see him winning it, but he'll probably start around 20s, so I am on a decent value there too. And of course I still think the dark horse could be Or Noir De Somoza, who was entered for the AON, but yard decided to have only 2 in the race. With the performance of Madison looks like ONDS could be Ryanair bound, but they will have to have 2 runners somewhere and I can see Tamarinbleu and Our Vic in the Ryanair and ONDS and Madison in the GC. The only reason backing Denman will be if he gets support and his price shorten in the next weeks - for obvious reasons ;)

[Rondetto]

Re: Denman

Rondetto, Of course Madison Du Berlais did not run to the same form in the 2007 Hennessey as on Saturday. It was his 07/08 form I was judging him on. After getting a 20 length beating receiving 13lbs from Denman, Madison went on to be 1 ¾ lengths 2nd to Vodka Bleu in the Silver Cup at Ascot. Trying to give his stable companion 20lbs. Vodka Bleu confirmed that form on his next run, winning a Cheltenham under 10st 13lbs. Prices, 50/1 or whatever, do not matter if the form is franked at a later date. It did not stop Madison winning this years Hennessey backed down to 25/1 from 66/1. Dream Alliance, 2nd beaten eased down by 11 lengths receiving 19 lbs in the Hennessey. His jumping went to pieces afterwards, though might have won but for a fall at Exeter. Character Building, beaten 19 lengths receiving 26 lbs, 3rd on his reappearance. Got an injury and did not run again that term. However, the previous season was ¾ length 2nd in the National Hunt Chase to Butler's Cabin under level weights; idling close home. Character building ran poorly on unsuitably firm ground in the Scottish National on his last start of 06/07. But Butler's Cabin franked the form by winning the Irish equivalent. My point about Ruby's loyalty is that before last years Gold Cup, Kauto Star had won him a Tingle Creek, two Betfair Chase, two king Georges and a previous Gold Cup. It would be very difficult for Ruby to get off Kauto Star, to ride one that was yet to win a grade 1 out of his Novice year. This time around, even before Saturday, it would be difficult to get off Kauto after his brilliant recent King George win. Especially as Denman has had health problems since his Cheltenham victory. Snowy Mountain? I take it you mean Snowy Morning. Sorry I do get Mansony confused with Mossbank. Do agree Mossbank was below form, but was beaten too far out for it to be a stamina issue. Don't see any reason not to believe Snowy Morning did not run to form at Punchestown. Some horses do run well after Aintree. Neptunes and Snowy also beat the 4th Mr Top Notch by 25 and 18 lengths; more than what you'd expect them to do by running to form. I think it is a little too difficult to think only one of the nine runners ran to form. I note you do not criticise Nipper's “form” with Exotic Dancer. Yes, there have been better Gold Cup winners than Neptunes Collonges but not many better third's. May have further improvement in him too. It may surprise you, but after Denman's injury I also believe Kauto Star has the best chance of winning the Gold Cup this season, so should be favourite. Even his below form 2nd may be good enough to win it this year; and may be capable of a bit better given a sounder surface. It is just his price that makes him opposable, with others being good prices. Form is a matter of opinion Rondetto, as we have seen. It is not Denman's fault Dream Alliance's jumping went to pieces afterwards. Unless you believe the Hobbs horse ran to form when subsequently failing to complete. Or that Character Building got injured. Or Exotic Dancer was not at his best at Cheltenham. But you can look back as well as forward when assessing form. Can not see why you have dismissed Madison. As for driving a bus through my form analysis. At least Timeform agree with me that Denman is a “great horse” (rated 180 or more). You might think it is a bold statement to say Denman is a better horse than Kauto Star at Cheltenham. What Cheltenham form line is it that you believe gives Kauto Star a better rating than Denman? A five length beating of Turpin Green perhaps? It is surely an even bolder statement to say Kauto is better. Only when he puts up a form performance better than Denman can he be thought of as a better Cheltenham horse than Denman. Harry's statement could also suggest Denman is not the horse he was, as Nicholls comments after the race imply. You seem to think if Kauto Star beats Denman this time it will prove you right. It will only be where other horses finish that will determine the level of form. I expect Kauto to beat Denman this year too, because Harry's horse is not the horse he was. I back horses which I consider value Rondetto, have already got over 20/1 about Neptune Collonges not each way. Not because I thought he would win, but because he was / is value to win. When both KS and D may not run to form it is (imo) the right thing to do if you consider the prices of the front two too short. At 7/4 (36.4%) and 9/2 (18.2%) best prices they are 54.6% together (between 10/11 and 4/5 coupled). AT THIS STAGE neither seems to be value. Interesting thread, always good to read different / opposing views. Ginge

Unfortunately Ginger value ends abruptly when they lose. I've come across more than a few value gamblers in my time and it does pay if you are good at it. Unfortnately because you often back several horses in the same race it's a long haul from A to B and the rewards are never that great. Neptune Collonges? Wouldn't be a shock to anyone and is a fair bet at 20's. but to win? I suppose he could win but I would rather have a few quid @ the 7/1 Kauto Star they stupidly offered after last years race. When Denman beat Neptune they were both at their best and when Kauto Beat ED they were boh at their best. At his best I would have ED over Neptune any day of the week and I stand by the fact I think Kauto Star is the better horse Incidentally I did look at the times back then and found that the first half of the race was anything but fast. Denman did step it up on the second circuit but Kauto Star looked well cooked going out on the second circuit to me. From somewhere he found another run and was closing on Denman until walking straight through the last fence. Had his momentum not gone he would surely got within 3 or 4 lengths of Denman. Where people get he doesn't stay from I have no idea 4 to 7 lengths defeat by Denman from a horse who's pilot said was never travelling like himself, was never jumping and couldn't seem to get his feet out of the ground was an excellent achievement. I'm sorry but your theory on loyalty as far as I can make out is way off the mark. Ruby Walsh firmly believes without doubt that Kuato Star is and always has been a better horse han Denman. He has said so and was never ever going to get off him. Never at anytime has he suggested hinted or even jokingly said he would. He told the world he wasn't right in last years race but the majority of the world jumped on the Denman bandwagon and didn't listen.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Denman If AP's on Denman I know which horse I would prefer of the two ;)

[mowgli77]

Re: Denman

If AP's on Denman I know which horse I would prefer of the two ;)

RP site today say Sam Thomas will keep the ride on Denman in the Gold Cup. :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Denman SAM THOMAS looks set to regain the ride on Denman in the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup. Speculation had been mountingthat Tony McCoy would be offered the mount as the champion jockey was as short as 2-5 with some bookmakers to pick up the ride. Denman made a rather lacklustre reappearance after 11 months off at Kempton on Saturday, when he was ridden by Ruby Walsh. But with Walsh set to partner Kauto Star in the Gold Cup, Findlay said Thomas will be back on board when the pair bid for a repeat win in the blue riband event on March 13. "I've been away for two months, but when I went away the plan was for Ruby to ride Kauto and Sam to ride Denman," Findlay told RUK. "I've seen nothing since that would make us change that decision. "Sam rode five winners in two days recently and as far as I'm concerned, he'll be on Denman if he gets to the Gold Cup. "I'm pretty sure that's how it will be. "That was how it was on Thursday night when we were in the pub and I wasn't at Kempton. "I haven't heard that anything has changed since then."

[mileni4uk]

Re: Denman

RP site today say Sam Thomas will keep the ride on Denman in the Gold Cup. :ok

Loyality counts after all :) Wouldn't it be great if Sam goes there and repeats what he did last year? Will stick it nicely in all doubters' asses.

[welshman443]

Re: Denman according to teletext denman is scratched from the grand national he wont be running

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Denman There's a rumour Denman is to be retired... Has anybody else heard this???

[Gingertipster]

Re: Denman There is not much evidence of any rumour yet Jonesy. Current Betfair price of 6.4 is only 0.4 above the biggest bookmakers price. Though as I've said, would not surprise me at all if he did not run again this season. Have heard a rumour Denman worked poorly upsides Neptunes Collonges prior to his Kempton run. Rondetto, I agree with Ruby Walsh, Kauto Star is a better horse than Denman (capable of a better rating). But so far Kauto has not shown he is better at Cheltenham. So you do not believe in VALUE then Rondetto? It is interesting to see those best prices I said were poor value a week ago. Kauto Star 7/4 and 9/2 Denman have both drifted out. 2/1 and 5.4/1 now available. Who knows, may be there will be a time when I will be able to back both Kauto and Denman on value. The old "value is only value if it wins" statement eh Rondetto. If two people have a bet on the toss of a normal coin, when the tosser offers 5/4 heads and 4/6 tails. Punter A backs Heads and punter B backs tails. It comes down tails, B wins for his bet at 4/6. But who had the value bet? If both punters carry on betting on their selections at the same odds, who is likely to be ahead after 1000 tosses? Look forward to seeing your tipping thread. Ginge

[TOP CAT]

Re: Denman

Gonna wait and see how Air Force One will do in the Irish Hennesy' date=' mate. This will give me a clue how good Madison actually is. But if Neptune Collagnes beats Air Force One easily, then I am not touching anything of this 8/1 for Madison. The GN weights are announced on Tuesday and we may have news that Denman is not going to Cheltenham.[/quote'] Air force one is out of the Hennesy on sunday, shame i would like to have also seen it run, now straight to chelt, whats your thought now on it ?