bowles10 Posted December 28, 2008 Author Share Posted December 28, 2008 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Petit Robin 2nd yesterday & Mon Mome never in with a shout in the National. -20pts today only 1 bet 2.35 Leops NEPTUNE COLLONGES 10pts win @ 11/8 Hills only 1 horse for me in the Lexus today thats the fav Neptune Collonges. No other horse in the field today would be within 7L of Gold Cup winner Denman at Cheltenham over 3m 2f. Only concern is that it is 1st time up but the horse could even run slightly under its rating to beat these. Slammed a decent irish field at Punchestown in April & is now 2 from 2 in ireland. 11/8 is skinny but its another potential top class stayer from Nicholls stable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Neptune Collonges fell 2 out in the lexus. Today one of my horses runs Noir et Vert in the 1.05 at Cheltenham, i am not convinced today will be the day as i believe Ferdy will want to get another race into it at this course before he comes back for one of the festival handicaps. The horse needs good ground & thats the main reason i dont think it will win today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Noir et vert ran well & thats a plus for me. Should get a reasonable handicap mark to build on to pick up a nice race in the spring My petra runs in the 2.10 race & thats another horse that needs better ground so it wont carry my money today but i wouldnt be surprised to see it fighting out the finish. In that race i am going to have a bety on what i think is decent value today, any Paul Nicholls chaser deserves a metnion but the 9/1 at Bluesq for OSLOT looks big to me. The horses record over this trip or further is 1-1-1-1-1, do i need to say any more than that really? Now they are running the horse over this trip I am definitely on it. Its only course form is a hd 2nd to mahogany blaze over an inadequate 2m trip OSLOT 10pts win @ 9/1 Bluesquare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 2nd bet today 2.45 Cheltenham BALLYDUB 10pt win @ 9/4 corals The 2nd place to Punchestowns here stands out for me. Punchestowns has gone on to demolish a decent field at Ascot & Ballydub ran it to 3.5L that day but the winner was impressive. Ballydub had no problem with winning a Newbury handicap next time out which is a very testing track & takes some getting. Wont have any problem with the ground at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Bets 34 Wins 11 Places 1 Staked 340pts Returns 397.4pts P/L +57.4pts Yield +16.88% only 1 wnner in the last 12 selections sums up the past month for me. Will update the horses i will be following in a moment ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 1, 2009 Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Unlucky with Ballydub, mate. Was going very well and I think he would have been tough to catch by both Big Bucks and Don't Push It. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Hurdlers (broken down by its intended festival target) Champion Hurdle Binocular (N Henderson) Snap Tie (P Hobbs) Punjabi (N Henderson) Katchit (A King) Crack Away Jack (E C Lavelle) Celestial Halo (P NIcholls) World Hurdle Blazing Bailey (A King) Pettifour (N Twiston Davies) Lough Derg (D Pipe) Supreme Novices Cousin Vinny (W Mullins) Zaarito (C Murphy) Triumph hurdle Walkon (A King) Mares Hurdle Whiteoak (D McCain Jnr) Ballymore Properties Nov hrdle Apt Approach (W Mullins) Diamond Harry Other (probably the handicaps) Peacock (N Twiston Davies) Lodge Lane (V Dartnall) Psycho (A Martin) Grand Schlem (F Doumen) Numide (G Moore) Ballydub (P Hobbs) Tataniano (P Nicholls) According to dick (P Hobbs) I will certainly have to whittle down the 6 for the Champion Hurdle. I havent included Sizing Europe in that list despite backing it recently ew at 8's. That price has now doubled or more so hoping for a better return on some of the others, Snap tie & Celestial Halo are 2 i am considering getting on ante post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Chasers (with intended festival target) Gold Cup Kauto Star (P Nicholls) Arkle Free World (P Nicholls) Kalahari King (F Murphy) Tatenan (P Nicholls) Osana (D Pipe) R&SA Chase Breedsbreeze (P Nicholls) Lodge Lane (V Dartnall) QM chase Master Minded (P Nicholls) Krugyrova Horses with multiple entries (unknown final target) Tidal Bay (J Howard Johnson) Noland (P Nicholls) Barbers shop (N Henderson) My Petra (N Henderson) Three Mirrors (F MUrphy) Noir et Vert (F Murphy) Imperial Commander (N Twiston Davies) Fingeronthepulse An accordion (D Pipe) Big Buck's (P Nicholls) Voy per ustedes (A King) Turko (P Nicholls) Mossbank (M Hourigan) There are so many variables with the chasers this year but a number of the above have course form & thats where i will be focusing at Cheltenham this year. I am not saying these horses will be winning all their races but i would hope a number of them win before Cheltenham to get that all important 1st or 2nd against thier name. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 1, 2009 Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Mate, our baby Fair Along has been backed a lot after his last win and only one bookie have 20/1 for the World Hurdle now. I think this is worth a small nibble although I still have hope for Pettifour when NTD finds his form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 2, 2009 Author Share Posted January 2, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Mate' date=' our baby Fair Along has been backed a lot after his last win and only one bookie have 20/1 for the World Hurdle now. I think this is worth a small nibble although I still have hope for Pettifour when NTD finds his form.[/quote'] The thing about the world hurdle Mileni is you to be able to battle, Inglis drever was that type of horse different in terms to Barracouda who travelled well during its races iD was also chased along but then its engine was different class. Fair along will have to take them along & to win from the front wont be easy & i think Alan King will get Blazing bailey ready for the race this year & at the moment, thats probably my main tip although I was hoping pettifour would develop into a decent animal also. N T-D wil come back into form & i think the horse has a great ew chnace especially going left handed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 3, 2009 Author Share Posted January 3, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Mahonia - Paul Nicholls Won very easily the other day in its 1st novice hurdle after finishing 12th in the festival bumper in March. Could have won by 30+L however front 2 were 27L ahead of the others & this one must be followed. Jumped like a stag & will make a decent chaser next year also. this is what i wrote after Mahonia's debut win impressive beating Medermit (recd a decent amount of weight that day), Medermit has since narrowly beaten Dee ee williams at Ascot off levels so Mahonia have a bit to find after disappointing at Cheltenham when odds on. Somersby went in the notebook both times this season & despite Mrs H Knights poor form, she knows when she has a good one i.e Calgary bay! The value here must be Somersby at 4 times the odds of Mahonia (2's vs 8's!) Not sure yet if its a bet for the thread as i would have liked to back it ew but the 6 runners prevents that today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 decided to look at the ante post markets for those horses i have listed in my stable for the festival in March, will decide over the next few days whether to start punting or not. Gold Cup Kauto Star (P Nicholls) 3.85 Arkle Free World (P Nicholls) 16.0 Kalahari King (F Murphy) 17.0 Tatenan (P Nicholls) 6.0 Osana (D Pipe) 25.0 R&SA Chase Breedsbreeze (P Nicholls) 16.0 Lodge Lane (V Dartnall) 24.0 QM chase Master Minded (P Nicholls) 1.68 Krugyrova 160.0 Horses with multiple entries (unknown final target) Tidal Bay (J Howard Johnson) 25.0 Gold cup Noland (P Nicholls) 6.2 (ryanair) Barbers shop (N Henderson) 21.0 (ryanair) My Petra (N Henderson) 260.0 (ryanair) Three Mirrors (F MUrphy) Noir et Vert (F Murphy) Imperial Commander (N Twiston Davies) 44.0 (Gold cup) Fingeronthepulse 40.0 (ryanair) An accordion (D Pipe) 110.0 (gold cup) Big Buck's (P Nicholls) 130.0 (ryanair) Voy per ustedes (A King) 6.4 (Ryanair) Turko (P Nicholls) 310.0 (ryanair) Mossbank (M Hourigan) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Krugyrova 160.0 I'd be interested in this one once there are markets opened w/o Master Minded. Yet to run this season though, will be keeping an eye on it though as put in a very good performance last year at the Festival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 one bet i have just struck is Cheltenham March 13th Albert Bartlett Novices hurdle The Nightingale @ 55.0 & 60.0 Cheltenham March 11th Ballymore Properties Hurdle The Nightingale @ 46.0 Horses form to date 1-2-f-1 It finished 2nd 8L behind Mad max (one of Henderson's horses) last season at Newbury in an NHF race which has produced 4 winners from 9 horses. It would have won 1st time up this season at Exeter but spooked & jumped the road slipping up after the last fence with the race at its mercy & the race was waon by Shalone (King) who has since beaten tataniano which hacked up at the weekend. The Nightingale won easily on last start heavily odds on over 2m 3f at taunton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 He's in the Ballymore, mate. 20s and 25s generally, but 40s with Sporting Bet and 50s at Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 He's in the Ballymore' date=' mate. 20s and 25s generally, but 40s with Sporting Bet and 50s at Betfair.[/quote'] taken the 46's on Betfair, thanks Mileni, my mince pies must be playing up! looking at the trends for each race Ballymore Properties Hurdle Key trends 12/12 Won or placed LTO 11/12 1st or 2nd LTO 11/12 top 6 in betting 12/12 Jan or Feb LTO 11/12 age 5 or 6 8/12 won LTO 7 of last 9 ran in graded company LTO Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle only 4 runnings of this race to look at 4/4 2-4 runs 2/3 Course win LTO 4/4 Course form 2/4 Won LTO 4/4 G2 LTO 4/4 21f+ win Looking at these, I would hope we see the horse run at Cheltenham at the next & final meeting before the festival. It needs to prove itself at the track & gain the all important course form required to win at the festival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Cheltenham March 10th - Champion Hurdle If the ground comes up on the good side, there are 2 potential challengers now to Binocular who both have course form in Snap tie & Crack away jack. Snap Tie gave binocular 8lb last season in the supreme nov hurdle & was beaten 4.5L when they finished 2nd & 3rd behind Captain Cee bee. Snap Tie's chances were not helped last year by the rain soddened ground last year & also was hampered on the final turn before running on for 3rd. On faster ground, i feel Snap Tie would get closer to Binocular than any other horse. Snap Tie @ 26.0 Crackawayjack won the Fred winter last festival & i would ignore its 2 runs this season at Ascot. It bolted in at Chepstow & it will be a different horse come the festival. Crackawayjack @ 14.5 PS, my bet on Sizing Europe looks up the swanny now after that last performance however good ground will also help that animal in what is going to be a great race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 This is just be thinking out loud bowles and I'd like your thoughts. Do you think the age/weight in that race is fair? I mean do you see it now as Snap Tie being 8lb better off? Only asking as I usually see it as the opposite. Despite the weight concession I believe it's a near to impossible task for a 4yo to win. I believe that any 4yo to run well (or win) in the Supreme Novice must be at least 8lb better the following year or the next as a matter of course. Age/inexperience was the only thing that beat Binnocular that day - even before his impressive displays this season, I'd fully expect him to beat the same rivals off levels in the future. That said, not many 2nd season hurdlers do well at five. The ones that do however are battle hard if you like - Hors La Loi (who was the only 4yo I remember winning the Supreme Novice) and Katchit (who'd been roughing since he was a 2yo). Therefore Binnocular should be one of those who can be a champ at five - it's a much better route than the Triumph route it seems, but it takes a special 4yo to figure inthe Supremem Novice in the first place. That's a bit jumbled actually and I think I've ended up making two points. I take your points about going though, like I say this is just to open a debate nothing against your bets, I haven't a strong opinion and I doubt I'll be playing - so I hope you cop one. It's a great race though and I can't forget how well Sizing Europe and Sublimity were travelling in last year's race. Should Katchit be as short in the betting as he is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Good luck Bowles, Snap Tie is a big fancy of mine aswell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow GL on Snap Tie, mate. I don't think good ground is a must for him. Binocular has good turn of foot and is equally strong on sound surface. Snap Tie just doesn't like it very soft. His 2nd lto is rather disappointing, but I heard Hobbs will get him spot on for the festival just like last year. He's not 100% yet and that's good news. He's a Cheltenham horse and the likeliest danger for Binocular. Henderson also has a habit of getting his horses ready early in the season and he's different to Alan King for example. This is another reason to laugh at Binocular's odds. From events up to 6/4, that's insane. He is the one to beat, but there will be lots of very good horses ready for the festival and lots will be sorts that really like Cheltenham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 5, 2009 Author Share Posted January 5, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 This is just be thinking out loud bowles and I'd like your thoughts. Do you think the age/weight in that race is fair? I mean do you see it now as Snap Tie being 8lb better off? Only asking as I usually see it as the opposite. Despite the weight concession I believe it's a near to impossible task for a 4yo to win. I believe that any 4yo to run well (or win) in the Supreme Novice must be at least 8lb better the following year or the next as a matter of course. Age/inexperience was the only thing that beat Binnocular that day - even before his impressive displays this season, I'd fully expect him to beat the same rivals off levels in the future. That said, not many 2nd season hurdlers do well at five. The ones that do however are battle hard if you like - Hors La Loi (who was the only 4yo I remember winning the Supreme Novice) and Katchit (who'd been roughing since he was a 2yo). Therefore Binnocular should be one of those who can be a champ at five - it's a much better route than the Triumph route it seems, but it takes a special 4yo to figure inthe Supremem Novice in the first place. That's a bit jumbled actually and I think I've ended up making two points. I take your points about going though, like I say this is just to open a debate nothing against your bets, I haven't a strong opinion and I doubt I'll be playing - so I hope you cop one. It's a great race though and I can't forget how well Sizing Europe and Sublimity were travelling in last year's race. Should Katchit be as short in the betting as he is? Billy many thanks for the interest & the informed comments you make. Yes, i understand that Binocular had to run off that weight allowing for the weight for age scenario in the Supreme Novices & that for a 4yo to get that close was some performance however it must be said that only certain horses make into a Champion at 5, Katchit was the 1st since See you then if my memory serves me right, & as you have mentioned Katchit had been campaigned for a long time in the lead up to the race. This season, Katchit just hasnt filled out at all & seems to lack that finishing pace it had last year when it ran opponents into the ground. Snap tie had the measure of Punjabi on Boxing day & its previous win at Kempton was in a fast time on decent ghround (3m 40s), Binocular seems well suited by flat tracks & that is one of the reasons i am looking outside of it for value. If i am wrong then i have missed a 6/4 winner at best, if things continue, the horse could start evens unless one of the challengers puts in a great performance leading up to the race. Yes, Katchit surely should be rated at around 16/1 now however the cheltenham factor is the key with that horse. I assume they only ran it at ascot to ensure it had a race, it had no chance of winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Kruygurova not entered for QM Chase, so not sure what plans are now, if any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 8, 2009 Author Share Posted January 8, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Kruygurova not entered for QM Chase' date=' so not sure what plans are now, if any.[/quote'] Thats a shame, i am assuming the horse may be injured at present as hasnt been seen out & no one is talking about it. If anyone gets any news, please let me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 11, 2009 Author Share Posted January 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 down to the serious stuff now with 2 of my runners going today 1.45 FINGERONTHEPULSE 10PTS WIN @ 2/1 bluesq 2.20 PYSCHO 5PTS EW @ 6/1 bet365 BOG analysis in the daily meeting thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 11, 2009 Author Share Posted January 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 down to the serious stuff now with 2 of my runners going today 1.45 FINGERONTHEPULSE 10PTS WIN @ 2/1 bluesq 3rd 2.20 PYSCHO 5PTS EW @ 6/1 bet365 BOG 2nd analysis in the daily meeting thread. The thing about these horses is there are always there or abouts i.e placed. Disappointed tha FOTP couldnt take on Schlinders Hunt for the lead as the winner was never headed & loved being out in front on that ground. FOTP would definitely like it softer than it was. Psycho came there to win the race but as the jockey said beforehand, it would be up against with the 8lb weight rise taking to 11st 4lb as lightweights always win this race. Ran well to get within a nk & perhaps the weight told in that last 100 yards as it couldnt go past. Right to cover it e/w though at that price. 20pts staked 12.5pts returned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Zaarito aims to get off the mark for the season at punchestown today. Its too short at 1/2 Fav in a 25 runner race. It will hopefully win & take its chance at Cheltenham where it is entered for the Supreme Nov hurdle (20/1). If it wins today, it may shorten a touch but doesnt have much to beat despite it being a grade 3 event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Zaarito aims to get off the mark for the season at punchestown today. Its too short at 1/2 Fav in a 25 runner race. It will hopefully win & take its chance at Cheltenham where it is entered for the Supreme Nov hurdle (20/1). If it wins today' date=' it may shorten a touch but doesnt have much to beat despite it being a grade 3 event.[/quote'] He ran well today and perhaps hit the front too early, but didn't have to do much to beat those. The 2nd followed him all the way to the line, but he scored easily and will again improve. His jumping is good and if he had won by a bit more the 16/1 at some bookies wouldn't have been available now (14/1 generally). I think the trainer is key. He always has good runners for the races in England and this one is definitely going for the festival. Davy Russel will probably ride him, but if not I'm sure they'll find him a good jockey for the Supreme Novice :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 15, 2009 Author Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Not around for a few days so will have to rely on just putting up the declared entries for the weekend in case they run Free World (FR) 13:40 Ascot Sat should take all the beating off these weights. 10pts win Lough Derg (FR) 13:05 Ascot Sat this one will struggle over this shorter distance although loves the track & if given a soft lead, could surprise but will leave alone again. No bet Master Minded (FR) 14:15 Ascot Sat should win, will win, but a no bet at very skinny odds. No bet Mon Mome (FR) 13:40 Towcester Sun entered in a novice hurdle!!! Not sure what to make of this to be honest but obviously needs a run out! 10pts win Serabad (FR) 13:05 Ascot Sat Disappointed a bit last time out in grade 1 company btn 52L behind Punchestowns. Would rather see the horse at Haydock or Aintree rather than this track. No bet Snap Tie (IRE) 13:20 Haydock Sat If odds on, this will be no bet, odds against, i'll have 10pts win for the horse to stamp its Champion hurdle claims. Somersby (IRE) 14:25 Haydock Sat Somersby (IRE) 15:55 Ascot Sat Not sure which race it will go for, but will take 5pts ew on either one as i think this horse could be a very decent novice. These races are veyr hot & should get a reasonable price on Henrietta Knights horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 Not around for a few days so will have to rely on just putting up the declared entries for the weekend in case they run :showProfile('horse','353732')'>Free World (FR) :jumpTo('race','291030')'>13:40 Ascot Sat should take all the beating off these weights. 10pts win 3RD :showProfile('horse','70264')'>Lough Derg (FR) :jumpTo('race','292279')'>13:05 Ascot Sat this one will struggle over this shorter distance although loves the track & if given a soft lead, could surprise but will leave alone again. No bet 1ST 9-1 :showProfile('horse','346065')'>Master Minded (FR) :jumpTo('race','292280')'>14:15 Ascot Sat should win, will win, but a no bet at very skinny odds. No bet 1ST 1/4 :showProfile('horse','87884')'>Mon Mome (FR) :jumpTo('race','292314')'>13:40 Towcester Sun entered in a novice hurdle!!! Not sure what to make of this to be honest but obviously needs a run out! 10pts win 2ND 5/4 :showProfile('horse','314267')'>Serabad (FR) :jumpTo('race','292279')'>13:05 Ascot Sat Disappointed a bit last time out in grade 1 company btn 52L behind Punchestowns. Would rather see the horse at Haydock or Aintree rather than this track. No bet UNPL :showProfile('horse','255317')'>Snap Tie (IRE) :jumpTo('race','292291')'>13:20 Haydock Sat If odds on, this will be no bet, odds against, i'll have 10pts win for the horse to stamp its Champion hurdle claims. 3RD 11/10 :showProfile('horse','361337')'>Somersby (IRE) :jumpTo('race','292293')'>14:25 Haydock Sat :showProfile('horse','361337')'>Somersby (IRE) :jumpTo('race','292283')'>15:55 Ascot Sat Not sure which race it will go for, but will take 5pts ew on either one as i think this horse could be a very decent novice. These races are veyr hot & should get a reasonable price on Henrietta Knights horse. 3rd 5/1 would have been ok if i had some conviction of backing Lough derg, that horse is truning into my Vodka Bleu from last year!! Master Minded won as it liked but Free World & Snap Tie both failed in their respective races. I didnt see Somersby race but it saved me a few pennies & a blank day. 40pts staked 10pts returned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 24, 2009 Author Share Posted January 24, 2009 Re: Bowles' Jumps thread 2008/9 i have 6 running from my Cheltenham lists today 4 in the same race 3.45 Cheltenham Big Bucks, Blazing Bailey, Lough Derg & Pettifour I am going to side with the Nicholls horse today as getting 8lb from punchestowns today & has to take advantage of that allowance. Has ran well here before & won on his latest start. The other 3 will no doubt run thier races but there are excuses for all 3, Blazing Bailey is better in the spring & needs a confidence booster today, Lough Derg has had 2 tough races recently & is as game as they come, but it cant keep that up surely & Pettifour would be better on decent ground & trainer woefully out of form. 3.45 BIG BUCKS 10pts win @ 7/2 Boylesports In the chase department we have Turko & Tidal Bay both going today. I will be happy to include both: 2.05 TURKO 5pts ew @ 10/1 Totesport Its 3rd in last years Ryanair Chase at the festival 12l behind winner Our Vic is great form as a benchmark, it has lost its form a bit but has been highly tried running in the Grand National, Charlie Hall & the Paddy power off big weights. Hopefully dropping down to 11st 3lb today will help its cause & it has a great chance of a place. 2.35 TIDAL BAY 5pts ew @ 6/1 Hills There is some debate whether the horse will like this ground having not encountered it for a while, well, it should as it has won on it before only 2 seasons ago. Its career record of 17 runs with 10 wins & 7 2nds is unmatchable & looks a stonking EW bet with 1-2-3 to play with. This is a test to see if it will line up for the GC next month or maybe miss the festival altogether in favour of Aintree where it won last year. I dont think its in the Denman / Kauto class but there is something about this horse & it does like this track so no worries there. 1 more bet for me today, i had backed Walkon at 20's for the Triumph before its last win & will continue to follow in a race that has seen Katchit & Francheok win the last 2 for same stable/jockey partnership. 3.10 WALKON 10pts win @ 6/5 Sportingbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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