Guest bcrazy Posted May 10, 2003 Share Posted May 10, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Gone for Mantilla to win 2-0 @ 3.25 Saw slight value in Mantilla @ 4/6 but out of the 3 set matches he has won this year all but 1 have been won 2-0 (if that makes sense >D ) Didnt want to pass up another sets bet after deciding against one of the matches yesterday that happened >: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 10, 2003 Share Posted May 10, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread 20 UNIT DOUBLE MANTILLA(4/6) ,FERRERO(1/5) WON 6-1,6-1 :D - RETURN 40 UNITS 20 UNIT SINGLE MANTILLA 4/6 - WON 3-6,6-3,6-4 :D RETURN 33.33 UNITS __________________________________________________ Managhed to see the Mantilla Match on TV last night. Gutsy performance to come back from Mantilla a set down against the Croat. Played a great counter attacking match. Ferrero mauled the hapless Schuellter in other match. ____________________________________________________ Semi Final Line Up The Ferrerro - Federer match up makes no appeal with Ferrero at only 8/13. I'd rate this closer but I still think Ferrero will shade it. Mantilla is Evens vs Kalefnikov's 8/11 which has some appeal for me in the underdog but I think I'm going to give it a miss as well and wait for the Hamburg Open to renew hostilities. ___________________________________________________ I'm going with a Ferrero - Mantilla final with Ferrero to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 10, 2003 Share Posted May 10, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread SUMMARY AFTER ITALIAN MASTERS (TOURNAMENT 1) BETS 17 (W6 / L11) STAKED 340 UNITS RETURNED 263.98 UNITS LOSS -76.02 UNITS YIELD -22.36% - thanks Osesame ;) ROI -3.8% START BANK 2,000 UNITS END BANK 1,923.98 UNITS _____________________________________________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted May 11, 2003 Share Posted May 11, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Hi cjamars How are you working out your yield? The yield is generally defined as profit/stakes played. The figure you are showing is profit/start bank it would seem,i.e. %age return on investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 11, 2003 Share Posted May 11, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Oops you're right Osesame...honest mistake (not trying any ENRON style dubious practices guv' honest) ..the yield is a worrrying -22.36% now :o :o :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 11, 2003 Share Posted May 11, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Going to have a nibble on Federer for final at 1/3. Odds are skinny but Mantilla has had to really slog in the QF and SF for his wins while I think Federer is too heavyweight for him. Shouyld be a good match with Mantilla trying a counterattacking strategy but I just don't think he has it to counter the power of Federer's game. The stats are very much in Federer's favor as well Bet 18 - 20 Units Federer - 1/3 - Bet 365 ___________________________________________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 12, 2003 Share Posted May 12, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Very annoyed with myself here ...could have chanced a valid bet on Mantilla (gutsy all through this) at 3.25 (or indeed swerved) but went on Federer for no other reason than I knew I could get to see the match...lost a host of break poimts to give Mantilla a worthy win (and me 20 units :evil ) Bets 18 (W6 / L12) Staked 360 Units Returned 263.98 Units Loss 96.02 Units Yield -26.67% ROI -4.8% Start Bank 2,000 Units End Bank 1,903.98 Units ____________________________________________ Off to the Hamburg site to get the draw for tomorrow and do some work. _______________________________________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 13, 2003 Share Posted May 13, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Well annoyed at missing some early rounds (work :lol for fcuk's sake). Get the Hamburg ball rolling with some well(ish) :rollin thought out doubles: Schuellhter to beat Ferrer (1.44) / Roddick to beat Luibicic (1.72) Schuellhter to beat Ferrer (1.44) / Volandri to beat Grosejean (2.20) Schuellhter to beat Ferrer (1.44) / Arthurs to beat Beck (1.80) All bets 20 Units ; All Prices Bet 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 14, 2003 Share Posted May 14, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Schuellhter to beat Ferrer (1.44) / Roddick to beat Luibicic (1.72) - WON :D - RETURN 49.9 Units Schuellhter to beat Ferrer (1.44) / Volandri to beat Grosejean (2.20) - LOST :x Schuellhter to beat Ferrer (1.44) / Arthurs to beat Beck (1.80) LOST :x _______________________________________________ Schuellhter won comfortably ion 2 sets as did Roddick. Volandri lost 4-6,3-6 while Arthurs went down in 3 sets. Definitely harder than it looks this teenis form :lol Bets 21 (W7 / L14) Staked 420 Units Returned 313.88 Units Loss 106.12 Units Yield -25.27% ROI -5.31% Start Bank 2,000 Units End Bank 1,893.88 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 14, 2003 Share Posted May 14, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Spent ages last night getting out a banker of Schuelleter / Youznhy as my anchors and then wasn't aboe toi get to the office and my computer >: . My fall backs are 20 Unit Treble (Bet 365) :D Costa to beat Rochus 1.25 Hewitt to beat Clement 1.22 Moya to beat Perera 1.28 20 Unit Single :D Moya to beat Perera 1.28 20 Unit Treble :D Costa to beat Rochus 1.25 Moya to beat Perera 1.28 Roddick to beat Calleri 1.83 (Good performance by Roddick against Lubicic teh big hitting Croat yesterday). The last price is very interesting. It was 1.36 last night and I thought it a steal. Perera while not exactly cannon fodder has only played in 1 ranked event in the last 3 years and it was sucha good price it almost made me stop. Even at 1.28 it's great value. Such good value I'll have it as a single as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 14, 2003 Share Posted May 14, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread MY complete (but hopefully improving :lol ) ignorance of tennis has led me to see that Perera uis in fact a real up and coming young gun and teh reason he's only played 1 ranking tournamnet is that he is only allowed to play in a certain maximum....still think that the experienced Moya will pol,ish him off but apologies to teh more knowledable tennis punters re my ignorance :o . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread This is getting serious…my lack of tennis knowledge (or maybe general incompetence is being cruelly exposed..a strike rate of less than 30% is worse than guesswork…will have to sit down and rethink things methinks. Will be bust in about 6 tournaments if this keeps up. My fall backs are 20 Unit Treble (Bet 365) Costa to beat Rochus 1.25 LOST in TIE BREAK 3 SETTER:x Hewitt to beat Clement 1.22 WON IN 3 SETTER:) Moya to beat Perera 1.28 LOST TO 16 YEAR OLD TRAINING PARTNER:x 20 Unit Single Moya to beat Perera 1.28 – LOST AS ABOVE:x :x 20 Unit Treble Costa to beat Rochus 1.25 – LOST AS ABOVE:x :x Moya to beat Perera 1.28 – LOST AS ABOVE:x :x Roddick to beat Calleri 1.83 (Good performance by Roddick against Lubicic teh big hitting Croat yesterday).- LOST in 3 SETTER:x :x Bets 24 (W7 / L17) Staked 480 Units Returned 313.88 Units Loss 166.12 Units Yield -34.61% ROI -8.31% :o :o :o :o :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Today’s Bets (25 – 28) Gaudio to beat Nadal (1.4) (Good performance by Nadal last night but reports say game littered with errors by both him and Moya) Hewitt to beat Gonzalez (1.44) (Gonzalez beaten only 1 top 10 player in last 33 clay outings) Calleri to beat Zabaleta (1.61) (Won last 2 H to Hs) ; 20-6 on clay this season. Two good performances to date in Hamburg coming from behind in both. 3 Doubles – 20 Units Each (Bet 365 Odds):D :D :D 1 4 Timer :D Gaudio to beat Nadal (1.4) Hewitt to beat Gonzalez (1.44) Calleri to beat Zabaleta (1.61) Federer to beat Philipousous (1.25) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread CJ, how are you calculating yield and ROI, I thought they were the same thing. :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Yield is Profit(Loss)/Stakes ROI is Profit(Loss)/Start Bank Maybe should be return on Bank???? It's a bit academic at the moment Odds as small street kids laugh at me in teh street and call me a "systems loser" (well en Francais so I think that's what they call me..).....at least that's what I think they call me :lol it would hardly be fat white b***ard would it??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread You mean ROB? I dunno, ask Tosh. :lol Thanks. What about bank growth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread QUOTE What about bank growth? What about it :rollin If I see it anytime soon around this thread I'll be pleasnatly surprised teh way things are going :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread My science teacher in school used to tell us that velocity was speed in a given direction. Your speed looks fine to me CJ, you just need to change direction. Have you thought about betting against your predictions? ;) :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread My history teacher used to say that Rome wasn't built in a day Mick He did mention that it had been destroyed in a day though on a couple of occasions :lol I live in hope but I'm glad my predicament is provideing some laughs :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted May 15, 2003 Share Posted May 15, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread we've all been there mate......stick with it. I think it is a very interesting idea that you are trying - most people wouldn't have the cojones to proof it 'live'. I've no doubt that there is much useful information and lessons to be learned as you go. I wonder if an additional 'filter' or two on the data might be useful, e.g. success on that particular surface, days since last 5 set game (I believe that statistically this has a major effect), success against opponent, difference in ATP ranking etc. I hope to dabble with some tennis systems over the summer so I'll be keeping an eye on your 'velocity'! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 16, 2003 Share Posted May 16, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Gaudio to beat Nadal (1.4) :D Hewitt to beat Gonzalez (1.44) :evil :evil :evil Calleri to beat Zabaleta (1.61) :D 3 Doubles – 20 Units Each (Bet 365 Odds) - WON1 Return 45.23 Units 1 4 Timer 20 Units - LOST Gaudio to beat Nadal (1.4) :D Hewitt to beat Gonzalez (1.44) :x Calleri to beat Zabaleta (1.61) :D Federer to beat Philipousous (1.25) :x SUMMARY BETS 28 (W8 / L20) STAKED 560 UNITS RETURNED 359.11 UNITS LOSS 200.89 UNITS YIELD -10.04% :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o START BANK 2,000 UNITS END BANK 1,799.11 UNITS ____________________________________________________ Grrrrr….could have been a nice day yesterday if that reverse hated Aussie twit Mr. Hewitt (I hate betting on a guy I have a fair idea is a cnut) hadn’t decided he wasn’t interested and scuppered 2 of my three doubles. He lost 2 sets 6-0 and 6-1. Gaudio and Calleri won comfortably but that other Aussie ape Philipousous with his “exciting†;) 200 mph service style beat Federer. Still at least I had a winner :\ Today’s “picks†:lol Gaudio to beat Rochus 1.2 Calleri to beat Ferreira 1.4 20 Pt Dble BET 365 Gaudio to beat Rochus 1.2 Calleri to beat Ferreira 1.4 Nalbandian to beat Gonzalez1.8 20 Pt Treble Bet 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 17, 2003 Share Posted May 17, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Both Calleri and Nalbidan have won already. Gaudio plays Rochus as anchor my my double and treble so I'm going to hedge my stake by backing Rochus: Rochus to beat Gaudio - 15 Units (Bet 365 4.33) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 17, 2003 Share Posted May 17, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Vaguely better today (law of averages anyone :lol ). It could hardly have gotten much worse though :o Gaudio to beat Rochus 1.2 WON 5-7,6-3,6-4 Calleri to beat Ferreira 1.4 WON 6-1,6-1 20 Pt Dble BET 365 - RETURN 33.6 Units :D Gaudio to beat Rochus 1.2 WON 7-5,6-2 Calleri to beat Ferreira 1.4 WON 6-1,6-1 Nalbandian to beat Gonzalez1.8 WON 7-5,6-2 20 Pt Treble Bet 365 - RETURN 60.48 Units :D Rochus to beat Gaudio (Hedge Bet) - Lost 15 Units :\ BETS 31 (W10 / L21) STAKED 615 UNITS RETURNED 453.19 UNITS LOSS 161.81 UNITS YIELD -26.31% START BANK 2,000 UNITS END BANK 1,838.19 UNITS ROI -8.09% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 17, 2003 Share Posted May 17, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Semi Final Line Ups - HAMBURG MASTERS 2 really interesting semi final line ups in my view but I’m going to swerve them both as they are best viewed as the man said. Coria (5/6) vs Gaudio (5/6) – BET 365 Gaudio is 19-7 on clay this season and has been to 2 SFs and 2 QFs in the 7 tournaments played to date. Trails Coria 2-1 in the head to heads losing in 3 sets this March. Coria is 15-4 on clay for the season and has made (and lost 2 finals) to Moya ad Ferrero which is pretty good going in anyone’s book. He has won his games to date convincingly but has probably had an easier trip than Gaudio. Think Coria will nick it but not enough to put money down. NO BET EDIT: Just noticed on livescore that this has started at 11. No scores up yet. Calleri (5/6) vs Nalibandian (5/6) – BET 365 On paper the form of Calleri is far superior on clay this season (25-11) vs (7-5). Nalbandian has suffered some poor defeats this season already and has only made 1 clay QF. Calleri has made 1 F , 1SF and 2QF in the 7 tournaments he’s played in but he has generally avoided higher ranking players. Added to that is the fact that Nalbandian has won the last 3 head to heads and I just don’t have the faith in Calleri at the price. I think he will shade it having disposed of Roddick earlier and been more impressive in the tournament to date (2 of Nalbandian’s games gone to 3 sets). NO BET Predictiing a Coria – Calleri Final Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 18, 2003 Share Posted May 18, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread The importance of mental toughness Don't you know it :rollin ...picked both semis right but dedcided to swereve........... Both Coria and Calleri won their games. Had very strange experience when I watched the last 2 matches of the Coria match instead of the FA Cup Final (not broadcast on French TV here). That game vindicated some of my early beliefs about the importance of mental strength. Coria having one the 1st set comfortably was in a tie breaker in trhe second when he ad a dreadful umpire's call against him. He collapsed and lost the tiebreaker. I feared the worst in the decider but he rallied and won the final set to love. Very impressive mental strength. Got me thinking was there any way to assess from the stats of games (even roughly) an idea of how tough an opponent was mentally. One crude method I hit on was the number of best of 3 setters the player had won/lost having won or lost the first. The higher % for example the player won coming from a set down would be a positive indicator. Conversely speaking if a player won the first and then lost the next 2 it could indicate problems of the willpower variety. Obviously the ideal indcator would betotal breakpoints won / total breakpoints played but I haven't the time. Anyway I'm doing some digging and will be back with some stats later. __________________________________________________ For teh final nothing to chose between Coria and Calleri in my view. Would plump for nCoria bar fact he might have picked up calf strain yesterday on the basis of his gutsy performance but instead am going to swerve again. FINAL - NO BET Roll on St.Polten Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 18, 2003 Share Posted May 18, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Just called up the draw in St.Polten from the ATP site. It seems to be a pretty piss ant tornament (no offence to any Austrians) here. Teh TOTAL pot is only 380,000EURO (smaller than the winner's purse for just about most other tournaments. Actually starts today and can't find any of my accounts (Bet 365,Powers,Hills and Lads) priceing these rounds up. Only 32 in it and seems to be basically a warm up for the French Open as far as I can see. Very annoyed as I will be travelling away from internet for teh first 10 days of the French Open as well so if I might have a 2 week absenmce from tennis punting (just as well for you I'm sure some are thinking ;) . Hopefully the later rounds will be priced up. Roddick, Costa and Coria are standouts (if they are interested :D ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 19, 2003 Share Posted May 19, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Of course Coria won yet I held my fire (uselessly for the third match in a row ..oh well :\ ) Monday must be St.Polten Hurrah ..prices for this little tourney on BET 365. Dodgy as hell in terms of betting as it basically seems to be made up of has beens, never beens and the odd good player in a slump. Going to have a few trebles Rodddick to beat Martin (1.4) Davydenko to beat Beck (1.28) Vahaly vs Carlsen (1.72) 20 UNIT TREBLE :D Rodddick to beat Martin (1.4) Davydenko to beat Beck (1.28) Vahaly vs Carlsen (1.72) 20 UNIT TREBLE:D Rodddick to beat Martin (1.4) Labadze to beat Wienziri (1.33) 20 UNIT DOUBLE :D ____________________________________________ Roddick - Good performances vs Lubicic and Zabletea in Hamburg (lost to finalist Calleri eventually).Will be surely trying to get more court time in for Roland Garros. Martin 7 in 9 first round exits in 2003 Davydenko – Hot and Cold type player but should still have enough for Beck Dupuis has had 8 first round exits in 10. Got to 2nd round in Hamburg which was best result in almost a year. Mutis has played better in 2003 and Mutis has a far superior Challenge Tour Record on Clay (57-37 vs 11-12). Labadze is a player on the up (relatively speaking). He’s 62-34 on clay for the Challenge tour vs 25-36 for Wienziri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 19, 2003 Share Posted May 19, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Teh second treble above should have Mutis to beat Dupuis (1.83) as is clear from the brief explanation below the bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted May 19, 2003 Share Posted May 19, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Sorry Cjamars but where do you get the players records for the different surfaces from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted May 20, 2003 Share Posted May 20, 2003 Re: You shall know my velocity - (Tennis) Thread Joe's site Tennis Data (link in the Football Data site) goes back to 2000 Bcrazy (not Challenge Tour though). Download in EXCEL and you can filter by player, surface , etc. Gives odds for 2003 so you do a bit of systems testing if you are so inclined. I downloaded some pay to register software over teh weekedn from a guy in Minsk (Ukraine??). It's got some snazzy features and goes back to 1997 (with David Cup,Qualifiers and Challenge Tour) but Joe's data is easier to manipulate in some respects. I've got a 15 day evaluation with this and see how I get on. 24$ is a single bet so might be worth teh punt but I've just found the interface clunky. Ona relate topic I bought a piece of software called "Odds Wizard" from another Russian site last year (football) and it wa swell worth the cash and guy involved was very helpful when I had problems setting it up initailly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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