Golf: The Open , 2008

[theoldmaster]

its that time of year again where we all watch our tips miss the cut, anyway here goes again. S. Garcia, 9/1 has to be fancied highly this year finished top ten in last 5 opens this is without doubt his bet chance of a Major and he is in form i really feel now could be the time for El Nino to blow hot and win. the short game is only bettered by woods, and he is a real threat. Tim Clark, 66/1 i rate him highly and have had good returns from his victories in the past, he has the game and tempremnet to win this and is a solid, consistent performer and i reckon 66s is a tad generous. Hunter Mahan 40/1, ben Curtis, Todd Hamilton. two Yanks who came form nowher to win and this lad is capable of repeating i hear everyone tipping this lad as one to watch, last two Birkdale victors O'Meara adn Baker Finch were two unfancied players , you have been warned! A. Romero, 25/1 everyone tells me this lad is going to win a major and why not this one should've won last year but bottled it, maybe this year hhis nerve will hold. M A Jiminez, 40 /1, leads the European money list and is ALWAYS there abouts having a good Scottish open and without doubt the most consistent performer from europe at majors, cna he win the open without doubt yes and he won't be far away come sunday evening. L Westwood.14/1 coming back to form and always seems to perform well at the open, would be a popular winner and his short game is now as good as it has ever been. take them all e/w top 5 and qtr odds and good luck look forward to reading other tips and anding to myopen betting portfolio

[Dougal]

Re: The Open , 2008 Victor Chandler is doing another 'beat Victor' promotion on the Open. 3 selections, mythical £1 e/w, his to beat to win a free bet are Robert Allenby, Harrington and Justin Rose. Link is here

[2damnhype]

Re: The Open , 2008 Am looking forward to the Open this week, and as usual most of my financial interests will no doubt be over by Friday evening. As yet I haven't spend a great deal of time looking, but I couldn't resist a look at Lee Westwood's form in the Open. He is a good player, and arguably playing as well now as ever, but this lot leads to believe he might be better opposed in 72 hole matches than backed to win the Jug, at a rather skinny looking 14/1: 2007 35th 2006 31st 2005 MC 2004 4th 2003 MC 2002 MC 2001 47th 2000 64th 1999 18th 1998 62nd 1997 10 1996 MC 1995 93rd

[Dougal]

Re: The Open , 2008 I think tee to green Westwood is as good as anyone but he's not a good putter, he's 98th on putts per round the European Tour and every week you see him missing short. Same with Garcia, tee to green he's magnificent but look at the stats, on the US Tour he's 127th on putts under 10 ft, 178th on putts per round. Won one tournament in nearly 3 years, bottled the Open twice and he's 9-1!? (I do actually like Sergio and would love him to win, just think that price is a joke) Interesting to hear Richard Green saying he thinks he's playing the best golf of his life at the moment, wouldn't back him to win as he's a bit of a bottler but worth looking at for a place & possibly top Aussie.

[theoldmaster]

Re: The Open , 2008 top GB and Ire, Montgomorie 20/1 just have a feeling that this year he has no pressuer or expectation on him so maybe this will suit him i'm goin to have him anyway. Paul Lawrie 70/1, two good weekend s at European open and loch lomond have set him up niceley, and remember he is STLL the last gb player to win a major, plaus the fact he is local, (im from aberdeenshire,) he supports Aberdeen FC!, and he plays links regularly up in this area i just feel that 70s is a tad to long for him. David Howell, 45/1 , coming on to form and i rate him really highly, when he is on form he is top class, he is from round Southport too so will have some knowledge of the course and at 45s has to be worth a small punt. Top USA, Scott Verplank 35/1, a consistent perfomer at majors always features on leaderboards, and a player i always back in majors. Davis Love III, 33/1 you may ask why but the stats on this man are very convincing, 7 top 15 finishes in the last 11 opens, only woods has a better record and he wont be there! the last time at birkdale he was 8th also. and for me that stat is to strong to ignore. TOP REST OF WORLD. apart from tim clark who i have picked in my earlier posting, another three take my fancy. S.Appelby, 28/1. runner up to Els in 2002, losing in a play off, and also top 10 in 04, and the Aussie know his way around links golf, again i reckon the odds are bit generous and take him here. R.Green, 25/1 , off the back of a good Scottish Open, he goes into this bang on form tied 4th last year, it wouldn'tsurprise me if he had another good week this week. KJ Choi 28/1, this japanese player is probably the best player from Asia, was third in this market last year (behind Green and Romero) and he merits another chance.

[Dougal]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Richard Green, Top 10 finish, 8-1 @Bet365 I think this is an attractive price, 5th in the Open last year after a blistering final round at Carnoustie and coming in off the back of a top five finish at Loch Lomond. He thinks he's in the form of his life at the moment and I'm not going to disagree with him. I wouldn't back him outright as two wins in over 10 years on tour speaks volumes but he gets a lot of good finishes. Anthony Wall, 1st round leader, e/w (5places) 225/1 @bet365 Speculative fun bet this, Wall was 2nd after the first round in 2006 and is in decent nick after T19 in Scotland. Has a very late start time and there always seems to be one late starter tearing up the course as the bbc end their coverage, if nothing else it'll give me a straw to clutch at for most of the first day!

[Bobbyhead]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Gone for Ernie Els(14/1) with Paddy Power,1/4 odds first SEVEN! Played ok in Loch Lomond (9th) and if he can just improve on his putting,must have a good chance in Tiger-less tournament,especially with these generous place terms,imo :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 When held at this course in 1998, USA held the 1st 4 places & 6 in the top 10. No players were under par The leader only had 2 sub par rounds. Only 14 players finished +9 or better Is the course that hard or was the weather poor over the 3 days. Tiger shot 77 on day 3 so i recall it was very windy/wet on the Saturday. Been looking at the americans & they have a strong team for this, stricker, cink, verplank, mediate, mickelson, leonard, furyk etc. Rose, poullter & Casey will carry Englands hopes but i still cant see one of them winning. Rose returns to his greatest moment when finishing 4th as an amateur by chipping in at the last!! need to look at the markets to see what there is, the continent markets are those i like to look at.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Those are nice terms:eek. I had an absolute disaster at the Masters, haven't bet on Golf since. Might have a go this week, see if I have any time to research on Wednesday night:unsure

[Big Alf]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Will wait and have a bit of fun on the 3 balls thur and fri before really looking at the win market but as an outsider I fancy Zach Johnson to play some decent golf. Win - 220/1 Top 10 finish - 11/1 Top 5 finish -26/1 Top US - 33/1 I've heard that the bundy at Birkdale this year is a suicide jobby and his driving stats this year seem to imply that he has a gret chance of keeping himself out of trouble. GL and enjoy all :ok

[bigstumur]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 I have decided to time my bet this year rather than steam in and panic only to find your player is +4 after day 1,and your bet although still reasonably healthy is 20pts higher than the ante post price. Please remember like most Golf Tournaments,they cannot be won on a thursday but sure as hell can be lost. I will bet Sergio Garcia on the first day,but I will pick my moment due to the Revolutionary Bet In Play system that for so long Technology "And The Badman" deprived us of! I am sure The Brilliance of Garcia will come through at last but he "like the rest of the Field will be fighting Par",thus giving us a more realistic price than 9/1-11/1.He will put himself in some strange spots and give us the chance to pick our price! There is a chance of course that he will streak ahead of the field in which case the ante post was value,but hey I am a Golf Nut and believe that like a big field in the horses that there will be a few nags&rags out in front on day one. My reason for siding with the Spaniard is this,apart from blowing it last year,he shot 66 in some of the wettest&windiest conditions in the European Open at the London Club last week and for a guy who doesn,t putt well 21 Putts has convinced me it is now time for the overdue! I have placed several speculative bets on lesser mortals incase Sergio gets taken out by a Sniper or something. I will list the Betfair Prices I have placed in BLUE against the Stan James prices in RED to give you an idea how much more value you can get at Betfair! Stuart Appleby@100/1 v 50/1 Angel Carbrera@64/1v 28/1 KJ Choi@150/1 v 40/1 Colin Montgomorie@110/1 v 80/1 Chris DiMarco@270/1 v 66/1 Now the question is if the Supermarkets had this Big a Variance on prices for your Groceries where would you Shop?:loon

[2damnhype]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Paddy Power are going ew 1/4 first 7 Sportingbet go ew 1/4 first 5 - but will pay ties in full - think thisis a decent concession - nothing more annoying than cheering your player getting a birdie on the 72nd only to find he share 5th with 8 others and you don't even cover your stake!!

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Im going to go with three e.w picks and use two firms who are generously offering 7 places, there maybe slightly bigger win prices elsewhere. My players are ranked no. 2, 6 and 11 in the world and I think are overpriced in an event without Tiger. 20 pts staked. Mickelson 18/1 boy 5 pts e.w I cant help thinking Phil is a big price here in an event without the main man and an event where he is statistically the best player left in it. Even with Tiger in I would think 20/1 is a big price and without him I think it could look very big come Sunday. I have taken shorter from an e.w point of view. I hear some people say Mickleson's game isnt suited to links golf but Im not really convinced by that. True his record in this major is nothing like it is in the others but at the same time he has managed one top 3 at troon a few years back and at places like pebble beach in america, albeit a different kind of links course he has a very good record and regularly wins the various events played there. There is no doubting he is a real class act and I expect his awesome short game will be suited here. His form is pretty decent in 2008, he has won twice, also had a second place and has only missed one cut all year. All in all i can see Mickelson having a really good week. Cink 33/1 pp 3 pts e.w No surprise Im backing cink again but whilst he remains at these kinds of odds he is fair value still, certainly from an e.w perspective. He has had more top 10s on the PGA tour this year than anyone else (7 in total.) Undoutedly he is one of the most consistent golfers around at he is not just doing it just on the PGA Tour, he is doing it in the major international events like the world matchplay where he was second to tiger, third in the Masters, a good final round put him in the top 15 for the US Open and of course he won lto which should give him a lot of confidence coming into here certainly as he has been accused of in the past of not winning enough. He was sixth in this last year and has another top 15 in this major, in 98 when the event was last played here he actually played quite well for three of his four rounds before shooting 83 on Sat to take him out of contention. His solid kind of play, generally hitting a fair amount of fairways not to mention his ocassionally exceptionally putting could see him go close again. Choi 95/1 pp 2 pts e.w Choi has been going around @ 150 on the exchanges which is huge imo and even though he has come in a bit he is still a big price for the world no.11. Sure in the past 6 events he has played Choi has done little but previously to that he was playing well in 2008. He won earlier in the season, has had a couple of top 10s and also top 15s. Another solid type of golfer who makes few mistakes and also boasts a fair record in this major. Top 10 last year and was up there for a long time last year after two good opening rounds, as he was in 2004 before fading over the weekend. I would not be surprised at all to see the Korean have a good week.

[Red_Fear]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Surprised that no-one has mentioned Robert Karlsson's name. :unsure His form for 2008 is very impressive....:notworthy The European Open 06 Jul 2008 6T Open de France ALSTOM 29 Jun 2008 13T US OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 15 Jun 2008 4T The Wales Open 01 Jun 2008 2 BMW PGA Championship 25 May 2008 3T Irish Open 18 May 2008 3T I've put a few quid on him to win at Betfair @ 45/1 but I'm still searching for the best E/W price on him. :ok

[bigstumur]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 I know Karlsson is playing awsome golf but I do feel he misses a hell of a lot of pressure putts,I watch the Europeantour every week so I am not guessing this.however I think he is a realistic chance E/W,as previously posted there is a Bookie called Sportingbet paying 1/4 odds for 5 Places&Ties,this was flagged up by 2damnhype punter "Good Lad"! and if anyone is backing E/W this is even better than the 7 places on offer at others. Anyway I am off to clamber through the minefield that is the Day 1 Three Balls! Good Luck!:D

[bigstumur]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008

Day 1 Three Balls

O.Hern@13/8 v Poulter ,Goydos Carbrera@5/4 v Paul Lawrie,Mediate S Cink@11/10 v Havret,T Clark Steve Webster@11/10 v Tampion,Van de Velde Furyk@11/10 v Villegas,Dougherty

D Frost@6/5 v Khan,Duval Garcia@8/11 v o,Hair,Imada Jiminez@11/10 v C.Howell,S.Ames A.Kim@6/4 v immelman,S.Hansen Z.Johnson@11/5 v A Scott,P.Larrazabal

I have used WilliamHill prices for Illustration purposes,so If you can grab better prices good on you,I will be Backing these myself "They cant be worse than my fixed odds football predictions,"Or Can They"! Good Luck!:loon

[bartonbank]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008

Im going to go with three e.w picks and use two firms who are generously offering 7 places, there maybe slightly bigger win prices elsewhere. My players are ranked no. 2, 6 and 11 in the world and I think are overpriced in an event without Tiger. 20 pts staked. Mickelson 18/1 boy 5 pts e.w I cant help thinking Phil is a big price here in an event without the main man and an event where he is statistically the best player left in it. Even with Tiger in I would think 20/1 is a big price and without him I think it could look very big come Sunday. I have taken shorter from an e.w point of view. I hear some people say Mickleson's game isnt suited to links golf but Im not really convinced by that. True his record in this major is nothing like it is in the others but at the same time he has managed one top 3 at troon a few years back and at places like pebble beach in america, albeit a different kind of links course he has a very good record and regularly wins the various events played there. There is no doubting he is a real class act and I expect his awesome short game will be suited here. His form is pretty decent in 2008, he has won twice, also had a second place and has only missed one cut all year. All in all i can see Mickelson having a really good week. .

Sorry Woody but I just cannot agree about Lefty. His performances at links courses, when he has done well, are the exceptions rather than the norm. His problem is that he only knows how to play one way, and that is hit it high. If the wind is blowing then he has problems. An earlier poster asked about the previous time it was at the course and the high scores posted. Is it that hard? I don't think so and, although I am a 16 handicapper, I have played far harder links courses (although I haven't been to Birkdale for four or five years). Unlike many the fairways are flat, with no dodgy bounces into the rough, but if you miss the fairways then you will often be playing from the sides of mounds and off bad lies. I also record that all, or all bar one, of the par 3's are in exactly the same direction, which is unusual. With his shape of shot, the worse the weather is the worse it is for his shotmaking. A lay for me.

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Using my "Open" ratings system, these are my top 10 rated Els rating 98 (16/1) 5pts Garcia 72 (12/1) 5pts Goosen 49 (40/1) 2pts Love III 36 (150/1) 1pt Harrington 31 (25/1) 3pts Appleby 29 (100/1) 1pt Curtis 28 (250/1) 1pt Romero 28 (50/1) 2pts Singh 25 (35/1) 2pts Furyk 19 (25/1) 3pts 25pts staked I have put the best price against each taken from oddschecker.com Also, i will be placing the following bets: Top SA Els 6/4 3pts Goosen 4/1 2pts Top USA Love III 35/1 1pt Curtis 50/1 1pt Furyk 7/1 3pts Top Aussie Appleby 9/1 2pts Top ROW Singh 12/1 2pts Romero 16/1 2pts Top Euro Harrington 12/1 2pts Garcia 4/1 3pts 21pts staked

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008

Sorry Woody but I just cannot agree about Lefty. His performances at links courses, when he has done well, are the exceptions rather than the norm. His problem is that he only knows how to play one way, and that is hit it high. If the wind is blowing then he has problems. An earlier poster asked about the previous time it was at the course and the high scores posted. Is it that hard? I don't think so and, although I am a 16 handicapper, I have played far harder links courses (although I haven't been to Birkdale for four or five years). Unlike many the fairways are flat, with no dodgy bounces into the rough, but if you miss the fairways then you will often be playing from the sides of mounds and off bad lies. I also record that all, or all bar one, of the par 3's are in exactly the same direction, which is unusual. With his shape of shot, the worse the weather is the worse it is for his shotmaking. A lay for me.

I completely agree mate. There's also a rumour that the rough = disaster this week and if that's the case Lefty ain't winning this. I have to say, of those 20/1 or less in the market there isn't one person I could back with confidence. I will be back tomorrow with my bets though, should I find any value.

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008

I completely agree mate. There's also a rumour that the rough = disaster this week and if that's the case Lefty ain't winning this. I have to say, of those 20/1 or less in the market there isn't one person I could back with confidence. I will be back tomorrow with my bets though, should I find any value.

seems to be a trend on Mickelson struggling, he didnt make my top 10, he hits the ball too high & if the wind blows, his chances will surely be blown. Garcia proved 2 weeks ago he can handle any condition but its just his bottle that comes into question.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008

seems to be a trend on Mickelson struggling' date=' he didnt make my top 10, he hits the ball too high & if the wind blows, his chances will surely be blown. Garcia proved 2 weeks ago he can handle any condition but its just his bottle that comes into question.[/quote'] Yeah I've no problem with Sergio's game but 12/1. Dear me that's skinny. I backed him at 33's last year and I know he's won the Players since and there's no Woods this year but I can't be taking Sergio at 12s. Not when the bloke can't putt as well.

[bigstumur]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 My reason for siding with the Spaniard is this,apart from blowing it last year,he shot 66 in some of the wettest&windiest conditions in the European Open at the London Club last week and for a guy who doesn,t putt well 21 Putts has convinced me it is now time for the overdue! Kev! The Guy worries me with his putting too,but the above text previously posted should pointto a potential Open Champ! Good Luck Mate!;)

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008

My reason for siding with the Spaniard is this' date='apart from blowing it last year,he shot 66 in some of the wettest&windiest conditions in the European Open at the London Club last week and for a guy who doesn,t putt well 21 Putts has convinced me it is now time for the overdue! Kev! The Guy worries me with his putting too,but the above text previously posted should pointto a potential Open Champ! Good Luck Mate!;)

I wish you and other Sergio backers well mate, and I'd like to see him win this, I just can't bring myself to part with my hard earned at 12/1 :$.

[bigstumur]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008

F.A.O Harrington Backers!

SkySports reporting tonight that Padraig Harrington is concerned about his wrist injury to the extent that "If it was any other Tournament He Probably would not play"! Personally I wouldn,t touch him other than Lay him,but he has his Diehards so Punters Beware!:unsure

[leespam]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Don't really know too much about golf, but had a look at last 4 tournament form, GIR and Putts per GIR, excluded anything under 20/1 and decided on the following 3 the other night: S.Cink 38.1 (Win) & 9 (Place) - both Betfair (comm. adj.) R.Allenby @ 50/1 (6 places) - bet365 V.Singh @ 30/1 (6 places) - bet365 All half point E/W bets and I'm sure each one of them has some weaknesses I've not considered but with any luck one of them might still be around the leaderboard come Sunday and that'll be good enough for me. GL all... :ok :hope

[JackJarvis]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008

Sport	Golf
Event	The Open / Royal Birkdale 2008
Selection	Jim Furyk (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	20/07/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 26.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Jims' been around a long time so there certainly won't be any nerves for the big man here unlike some. He finished 4th at this course when it last held the open back in 1998 and a bit of course form can do no harm. Has played well in his last 2 Opens, finishing 12th last year and 4th in 2006. Hasn't been overly spectacular this season but a solid 3rd at The AT&T National at Congressional will have really put him spot on for this and he represents much better value than those at the head of the market in my opinion.

Sport	Golf
Event	The Open / Royal Birkdale 2008
Selection	Stewart Cink (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/07/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 36.00 (Back)
Reasoning	A winner of pods open back in March followed by a cracking 3rd in the Masters at Augusta. Run up a sequence of respectable efforts before winning the Travelers last month. He finished 14th in the US Open which was a good performance and looking at those on their own, you would have to think he has a big say in this. Finished joint 6th last year just 3 shots off the leaders and if in the same form, he looks good value at 35/1.

Sport	Golf
Event	The Open / Royal Birkdale 2008
Selection	Hunter Mahan (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	20/07/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfred @ 51.00 (Back)
Reasoning	This big hitter has caught plenty of peoples eye lately and rightly so. Has had a reasonable season finishing 2nd behind Cink at Travelers followed by a 12th place finish at Congressional next time out. Played well in US Open when flying through the final round albeit too late to finish 18th. Was joint 6th last year with Cink, an improvement on his 26th in 2006 and he still seems to be getting better. 50/1 is a massive price.

Sport	Golf
Event	The Open / Royal Birkdale 2008
Selection	Anthony Kim (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	20/07/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 56.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Has enjoyed a fabulous season on the PGA tour winning the Wachova aswell as the AT&T National most recently. This could well be a risky bet as he makes his Open debut here but his PGA tour form has certainly been impressive and I was most impressed with his performance at Congressional last time out. Seems like a player on the up and if he can get too grips with this course nice and quick he looks super value at 50/1. Has won the Wachova Championships & AT&T National on the PGA tour this season and looks like a player on the up. Makes his Open debut and if bringing his American form over here he could well enjoy a good tournament.

[ddonnachie]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Not sure if anyone's seen Extrabets 'Player to finish in the Top 20' but theres some good prices and they pay out on tied positions as well. I've had a bit of a dabble on Justin Leonard at 7/4, he's a straight hitting driver and an excellent putter, plus he seems to be hitting a bit of form with recently winning the St Jude.

[bartonbank]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Jack...Kim talks down his chances big time in the RP today. States that the course beat him up in practice.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 Outright JIMINEZ E/W (1/4, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) @ 29 Paddy Power. Great form this year. Hitting the irons very well and very accurate. Should be very confident and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday. Outright OGILVY E/W (1/4, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) @ 29 Paddy Power. I really like Ogilvy. Backed him earlier in the year when he beat Tiger and I fancy a really strong week from him again. Great putter and accurate with the irons. Also think he’s a good wind player. Major winner. Outright A ROMERO E/W (1/4, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) @ 41 Paddy Power. A player I really like. Did extremely well at the Open last year if tough conditions and I’m hoping for similar this year. Is capable of hitting a really low score even on a tough course and mentally he should have learned from last year. Outright WEIR E/W (1/4, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) @ 71 Paddy Power. Showing some decent form again. Similarly to Ogilvy good with the irons and a strong putter. Major winner. Outright LEONARD E/W (1/4, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) @ 131 Paddy Power. In form again. Very accurate and putts very well. Has done well at the Open in the past and could be a nice surprise package. First round leader GREEN E/W (1/4, 1,2,3,4,5) @ 81 Stan James. Showing some good form and is very capable of shooting a low round when the pressure is off. Going out early and the weather forecast suggests this will be the best time of day regarding the wind. Worth a shot at a decent price.

[theoldmaster]

Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 leader after round one is often just a lottery and i never bet big amounts on this i have decided to have a bit of fun on this one and put just 50p on a 200/1 shot, but what a shot! Greg Norman, the Great White Shark, he may not have the stamina or game to win over four days now, but he has the length of any of the rest of the field, far more experience on links than 90% of them and remember it's been ten years since they were last at birkdale a good number of the players have not played there in tournamnet conditions, ex open winner and Aussie, they have good record there 200/1 EW is definately worth a small punt as a fun bet.