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MadnessDaily 6 (GAME OVER!)

madnesstiger

By madnesstiger
in Glory Hunters

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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MADNESS DAILY 6 Regulars should know the score by now! 100% of bank goes on each bet, in the hope that a nice long run of winners can be found to produce a nice big jackpot. As you may have figured, this is indeed the 6th attempt at a similar system, with little tweaks added along the way in an effort to make the whole process easier (in theory!). This time around, I am going to be a little more conservative, and start with just £100. 1 winner will be classed as 4.8% profit (5% profit, minus 5% commission). i.e. full bank wins at back odds of 1.05 = equivalent of 1 winner i.e. full bank wins at back odds of 1.22 = equivalent of 4 winners After scribbling down a number of strategies, here's how I've decided to play this one in terms of strategy and banking:

  • START WITH £100
  • FIND INITIAL 30 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£400
  • BANK £100 (PAYS FOR 1 MORE ATTEMPT). NEW BANK = £300
  • FIND ANOTHER 30 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£1200
  • BANK £200 (PAYS FOR 2 MORE ATTEMPTS). NEW BANK = £1000
  • FIND ANOTHER 30 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£4000
  • BANK £700 (PAYS FOR 7 MORE ATTEMPTS). NEW BANK = £3300
  • FIND ANOTHER 15 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£6600
  • BANK £500 (PAYS FOR 5 MORE ATTEMPTS). NEW BANK = £6100
  • FIND ANOTHER 8 WINNERS = BANK OF ~£8800
  • ADDED TO THE £1500 BANKED, THE JACKPOT OF £10K IS REACHED!
To summarize then;
  • 0-29 WINNERS = BUST!
  • 30-59 WINNERS = £100 BANKED, PAYS FOR 1 MORE ATTEMPT
  • 60-89 WINNERS = £300 BANKED, PAYS FOR 3 MORE ATTEMPTS
  • 90-104 WINNERS = £1000 BANKED, PAYS FOR 10 MORE ATTEMPTS
  • 105-112 WINNERS = £1500 BANKED, PAYS FOR 15 MORE ATTEMPTS
  • 113 WINNERS = £10,000 JACKPOT!

Key Alterations From Previous Attempt:

  • 1 winner based on 5% profit this time. Was 4% last time.
  • Requires just 30 winners before first 'bank'. Was 50 last time.
  • Only £100 starting bank this time, rather than £200 as per last attempt.

All markets and sports may be considered in this attempt. MT :ok

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessDaily 6 ASSISTANCE REQUIRED! Since my 'Steeleworks' thread has gone bust, I can now concentrate on just the 1 GH (again!). The result which ended the other GH involved a last-minute equaliser by the weaker side and 'bust' my lay of 1:1 FT score. I thought more about this and have since created a little spreadsheet which may help out in similar cases to this in the future. Here's how it works (in theory!):

  • The weaker team in a football match may be LAYED at, say, 7.2 (equivalent 'BACK' odds of ~1.16). We could place this bet and let it run, and make a nice 14% profit (after comm.) should it win.
  • As this GH is based around winners of 1.05, we can place a few 'cover' bets in this market to help ensure a win, but still make the 5% target per bet. (trying to make this sound the least confusing possible!)
  • For example, as well as LAYING the weaker side, we can also place a 'BACK' bet for the weaker side to lead at HT & FT @ realistic odds of 13.5. This way, if the weak side do go on to win the match (and were ahead at HT) we would still make about 6% profit on the bet.
  • To cover even more possibilities, we can BACK correct score of 3:1 to the weaker side @ odds of 90, and still make 4.5% profit from the market. Add a BACK of 3:0, at odds of 190, and STILL make 3.9% profit (after 5% comm.)
Obviously, this still doesn't guarantee a winning bet every time, but definately insures you against a few unlikely outcomes. This system can of course work in other sports as well. OK, this is where you guys come in...! If you like the sound of this (or are bored and want something to do!), it would be great if you could download the spreadsheet below (it's in .xls format) and test it for me to check it's working correctly! Here's the basic instructions:
  1. Insert an amount in the 'current bankroll' cell.
  2. Insert a figure into the 'target %' cell. In this GH, it would be 5%, but I tend to keep this at 1% (you'll see why soon)
  3. Find a market on the exchanges, and complete the LAY odds for the selection you want to lay.
  4. You will see to the far right of this row, what your expected bankroll will be should you stick with just this one selection.
  5. Next, in the BACK odds cells, insert odds for your 'cover bets'. These should be quite longer odds than the LAY you made in step 3.
  6. The figures at the end of the rows display how much you can expect to make depending on how many 'cover bets' you make. If a figure is not visible, it means you will make a loss.
  7. The figures in the STAKE column should be obvious! (just be careful with the stake for the LAY bet, depending on how your exchange website/software works)

[For now, the currencies are set to GBP(£) and only the important variables cells are unlocked, to avoid disturbing the formulas in other cells] DOWNLOAD HERE THIS IS A TRIAL VERSION OF THE SOFTWARE!!! ONLY USE THIS SPREADSHEET IF YOU ARE SATISFIED THE CALCULATIONS ARE CORRECT!!! Please, have a play and any feedback would be gratefully appreciated. Sorry if I confused anyone with this - it really is easier to understand once you've got the thing in front of you! Cheers guys MT :ok

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessDaily 6

I really like this idea mate. I have downloaded the Excel, and will try it out tonight. Will give feedback later.
Cheers mate. Let me know how you get on with it. :) Before anyone asks about the bets which I just placed... I didn't just LAY 2-0 to Lammer for a few reasons: 1. Not enough liquidity in the market 2. Didn't make much difference by using my new method, to make the same profits. 3. Checking if my calculations work!
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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessDaily 6 FINAL G.GARCIA-LOPEZ bt M.LAMMER 5-7,6-3,6-2 :) Here's how it worked financially: LAY LAMMER TO WIN: Liability of £96.46 returned £122.71 BACK LAMMER TO WIN 2-1: Stake of £15.09 returned £0.00 RETURNS + UNUSED BANK of £6.57 = NEW BANK of £129.28 9.4% profit (after 5% commission) The spreadsheet's estimated return was £130.63. So, from this bet I can say it did it's job quite accurately, although I will be using it again a few times before I can say I'm confident that the calculations are correct.

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessDaily 6 No more for me tonight, back tomorrow with some tennis maybe! *** PROGRESS UPDATE BETS PLACED: 4 EQUIV. WINNERS: 5 REMAINING WINNERS REQUIRED FOR STAGE 1: 25 (16.7% COMPLETE) REMAINING WINNERS REQUIRED FOR JACKPOT: 108 (4.4% COMPLETE) START BANK: £100.00 CURRENT BANK: £129.28 :ok

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessDaily 6 For the next bet, I'm going to delve into the Swiss Open tournament in the tennis. The tiny (for a tennis player) young Robin Roshardt (ranked 588th) faces Stephane Bohli (ranked new personal hi of 137th) in the 1st round of the tournament. Cannot see anything but a 2-0 Bohli win, so am going to risk not placing a cover on Roshardt in the set betting. ROSHARDT vs BOHLI BACK BOHLI TO WIN MATCH @ 1.24 ESTIMATED % PROFIT IF WIN: 22.8% :hope

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessDaily 6 Yeah, I looked long and hard over the current tennis bet and just cannot see how the youngster can get anything from the match. It is a rarity that I'm going for odds of this size, but am confident of making a profit from this one. Even if it means laying it off early! *** As for the Excel sheet.. cheers! Plesae, make use of it :ok

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