Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08

[mowgli77]

Epsom 4.00 - Frozen Fire (EW) A lot of talk this week about New Approach running in the Derby and I'm convinced it won't win. I don't think it will get the 1m4f and I feel the way it runs will inconvenience it and set the race up for one held up just off the pace with a late burst. I also feel it is impossible to train a horse for the Guineas, Irish Guineas and Derby, it can only peak once and that time has been and gone. I like the look of Tartan Bearer, have loads of respect for Stoutes horses in this race and Moore has chosen to ride this one. It only beat Frozen Fire by the shortest of distances and starts at around 6-1. Looking at the horse it beat I'm stunned to find that available at 22-1 with a legend like Mick Kinane on board. Both these horses are improving and have only had 3 races to date. I don't think a Dante runner up has ever won the Derby but I'm hoping the record books will be re written today with Frozen Fire. I don't feel there is one stand out horse like Authorized last year, any number of these are open to improvement and we could see another shock big priced winner. Murtagh has decided to ride King Of Rome but its best form is placed in a Gp3 which shouldn't be good enough to take this. Frozen Fire has only had the 1 race this season and will come on leaps and bounds for that and the extra 2f should be fine.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 TARTAN BEARER 4.00 Epsom. 1 point win. Ryan Moore hopefully has selected the right ride out of the Stoute runners and with this one looking good to handle the course and find a bit of improvement, I feel he can go very close. Hustle and bustle in The Derby as always, but I can see Ryan Moore dropping him out middle/rear and then flying at the end.

[Rainbow]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 my best bet of the day would be doctor fremantle 400 epsom. 0.5 pts ew. think stoute will dominate this race but just get the feeling that the doctor will come out on top. moore says himself its hard to split the stoute runners and with the oaks winner boosting the form yesterday it has to be doctor fremantle for me.

[ironstoney]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 KANDAHAR RUN.4.00 EPSOM(0.5E/W)...The selection won pulling up LTO and is guaranteed to get the trip.That's a remark which will not apply to many of it's more fancied rivals.In what appears to be a very open Derby,I reckon it's worth an E/W punt at around 16/1..:ok

[Falbrav]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 4.00 Epsom. Rio De La Plata. 0.5 points each way. Doubtful stayer on pedigree, but the camp think he will stay and that's good enough for me. Stable in much better form recently too and I think The Derby will be like London buses for Frankie Dettori with waiting so long for one Derby winner, then two come along before he knows it. Plenty think he has no chance, but I beg to differ and feel he can go close and hit the frame, then hopefully battle enough to get that win. Agree with the posters above about the Stoute runners, but the odds lie with this fella and so I'll stick with him and Frankie!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 :loon

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 Epsom 4.00 Tartan Bearer 1 pt win After much deliberation the two I like for the Derby are Tartan Bearer and New Approach. Casual Conquest was close but it was just a bit concerning how he was the first off the bit in his trial even though he picked up so well, doing that at Epsom in a derby with his experience would not be a help at all and could be crucial. Mind you I thought Look Here's inability to truly handle Lingfield wouldnt help here her in the Oaks and she was similarly inexperienced like the first 3 in that race and it didnt cause her any problems. Anyway Tartan Bearer gets the edge for me from Stoutes three. It is a big improver and only on its fourth start today, further improvement is very much on the cards for a horse that may not be flashy but just seems to do enough as proven lto and reportedly at home. Its Dante win was pretty good in my book, ok not necessarily flashy but that might just be that it only just does enough and no more. What was impressive firstly was the big improvement showed from winning maiden a couple of weeks earlier and also its professional attitude showed to win, in contrast to the runner up (surprisingly left out by murtagh imo). I think he will get the trip and moore is a fine jockey to have on your side. Doctor Fremantle would be my next choice from stoute especially with form boosted yesterday and also that potential other formlines like Bronze Cannon and even All the Aces not here. Also on lines through unefer and Pampas Cat, it arguably has the beating of Tajaweed. New Approach I couldnt leave out. Sure there are doubts, has it really trained on, temprement issues, will it stay, not ideal prep but what must be remembered is how classy this horse is. It has form in the book, it has beaten Curtain call at 2, been the champion 2 year old, run twice second in the guineas, first run was very good in my book when he fought all the way to the line, crying out for further. I expect he will be settled in a bit more today, I dont see him front running at all and overall I think it is a real conetender, a lot has been said about the horse and more so the trainer but he cant be left out for me. The already proven class act and I think over further his class will be proven even more. For this thread im just going for Tartan Bearer.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 Think it's safe to say this thread will have the Derby winner! :lol :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 Was going to be Rio De La Plata, then it was Hogmaneigh but going for the Musselburgh race. 3.20 Muss Short of time so short write-up (already done one on the Muss thread). Sundowner has been given no chance with the rides on his last two starts and looks handicapped to win. Sure to appreciate the step up in trip. SUNDOWNER - EW

[mileni4uk]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08

Was going to be Rio De La Plata, then it was Hogmaneigh but going for the Musselburgh race. 3.20 Muss Short of time so short write-up (already done one on the Muss thread). Sundowner has been given no chance with the rides on his last two starts and looks handicapped to win. Sure to appreciate the step up in trip. SUNDOWNER - EW

How can you spoil the thread like this? :@ Hehe .. gl mate :ok

[peteg40]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 IELDMY LEARNED FRIEND 8.10 LING....... 1 Pt lay..... Up in the weights has stall seven and riden by a 7lb claimer been well beaten when running on G/F going..... At around 5/2 looks a lay to me.... looks to have it all to do

[welshman443]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 3-15-epsom-safari-mischief--has a good record on downhill tracks,seems to be improving.due to go up a few pounds in future handicaps,handles all types of ground,and in fine form at present

[Winner4Me]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 I'm off to a different track as everone seems to be at Epsom. :lol 3.35 Worchester Jollyolly E/w This horse has not been seen for a couple of years. But on the plus side it has won at this distance. Like the ground conditions for today as well. Trainer my only concern (8% s/r).Jockey is ok. I think with the rest this horse has had (3 years) it should be back into her normal form and i hope it will place or even win :hope Good luck today guys. :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 1.50 Worcester - My Turn Now Made a disappointing chasing debut, but has far superior qiality than everything else in the race and with the yard in hot form I think he will be spot on today and will win. Trip and ground are fine. I just hope juming holds on, but he had a month to school and I think he will be fine.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 420: Worcester - Kilrogan EW A favourite of mine is Kilrogan, was run off his feet at Ascot and then won really well at this track and was raised 6lbs, was brought down last time and now has a good jockey which will take 5lbs off his back. I'm not too worried about the rise anyway because his main rivals are also running off career bests so in effect meets them on the same terms before his win, at around 7/1 looks terrific value to me.

[Boulder5111]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 E4.45 Mull of Dubai 0.5pt E/W Best form is on turning tracks so should enjoy Epsom. Has also won in this class and the jockey has a good strike rate on the horse.

[bowles10]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 Epsom 4.00 Washington irving EW Been looking at the card & surprised to see Washington Irving trading at around 33/1 for the race now. Expected to develop into one of the leading middle distance 3yo's this year, has disappointed on both appearances finishing 2nd at leopardstown by a shd when it looked the likely winner before just not having enough to win. O'Brien reported the horse in good shape after that run. Next in the Derrinstown stud stakes Casual Conquest slammed the horse 6L as Washingto Irving didnt pick up at all that day. Will be interesting to see who rides as I think Heffernan could get this up in the placings if he gets it held up & then unleashes down that home straight. It is bred to stay so hoping the step up in trip will work. Casual Conquest has done nothing wrong to date & deserves to be favourite. I can see this one going for home early & trying to slip the field, if it gets the rail could take some stopping & has the form profile of a Derby winner being lightly raced 2 wins from 2. Ryan Moore stays with Tartan Bearer & the Dante has proved one of the better trials over the years & I can see it still getting the better of Frozen Fire over this extra distance. Final 3 Casual Conquest 4/1 Bet365 Tartan Bearer 11/2 Bet365 Washington Irving 40/1 Bet365 EW

[cc75]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 4.00 Epsom: Tartan Bearer Going to try my hand a little trend spotting for a change today in the Derby rather than my usual pin placing method. Had a look at this race and the trends i've came up with are as follows: 10/10: had 1 or 2 runs this year 10/10: tackling 12f for 1st time 9/10: returned at 7/1 or less 9/10: Won LTO 8/10: Won at Group 3 level or better LTO 6/10: ran from top half of draw If i've researched this correctly then it should be 2 horses that (currently) fulfil most of the criteria: Casual Conquest and TARTAN BEARER. Purely on one final trend of number of times a trainer has won this race (Stoute won this 4 times) I will select Tartan Bearer (also because i'm Scottish). Win or lose it's been fun trying this method. WIN :hope

[SteveO]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 4.00 Epsom Casual Conquest WIN Was very impressive last time out and that form stands out to me. Has to overcome the very talented New Approach but having seen his antics prior to the race I'm sticking with Casual Conquest.

[PL_Crewman]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 07/06/08 Tartan Bear Won by a head to Forzen Fire and another 2 1/2L to 4-6F Twice Over. Owner Ballymacoll Stud has a very good record with jockey Ryan Moore - 9 wins from 36 the past 5 seasons. 6 wins from 16 3yo runners. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has 20 wins from 70 3yo runs the past 5 seasons for Ballymacoll Stud. 5pts ew @ 5-1 Bet365 BOG