Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec

[bowles10]

Saturdays big race deserves its own thread for discussion.

2:40 "); //-->Denman 262	"); //-->Juveigneur 14	"); //-->Kingscliff 28	"); //-->Madison Du Berlais 28	"); //-->Knowhere 14	"); //-->New Alco (ex6) 19	"); //-->Always Waining 24	"); //-->Snowy Morning 221	"); //-->Sir Rembrandt (ex6) 14	"); //-->Patsy Hall 14	"); //-->D´Argent 14	"); //-->5Character Building 224	"); //-->3Bible Lord 17	Andrew Turnell 75	6	9-10	Mark Grant	131	164	140	1-4	0-0
31	5-612F	2Bowleaze 21	R H Alner 45	8	9-6		127	161	134	1-7	0-0
32	413162	1Two Miles West 27	Jonjo O´Neill 61	6	9-2		123	159	128	1-6	0-1

[bowles10]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Last 10 winners

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2006	State Of Play	6	11-4	10/1	Evan Williams	Paul Moloney	165
2005	Trabolgan	7	11-12	13/2	N J Henderson	Mick Fitzgerald	168
2004	Celestial Gold	6	10-5	9/4F	M C Pipe	Timmy Murphy	160
2003	Strong Flow	6	11-0	5/1J	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	169
2002	Gingembre	8	10-13	16/1	Mrs L C Taylor	Andrew Thornton	161
2001	What's Up Boys	7	10-12	14/1	P J Hobbs	P Flynn	157
2000	King's Road	7	10-7	7/1	N A Twiston-Davies	Jamie Goldstein	161
1999	Ever Blessed	7	10-0	9/2F	M Pitman	Timmy Murphy	155
1998	Teeton Mill	9	10-5	5/1	Miss Venetia Williams	N Williamson	164
1997	Suny Bay	8	11-8	9/4F	C P E Brooks	G Bradley	171

[bowles10]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec For those who read the ante post thread, you will know that i took the 5/1 on Denman a week or so ago. I still believe that was value against a decent bunch of handicappers. Denman is the real star here & will be contesting the Gold cup come March 2008. I dont think it will have any problem with the trip & has won on the course already twice. It has a hefty weight to carry around & the only other horse in 10 years to win off top weight was Trabolgan. I think Snowy Morning has a lot to prove also & i would rather have my 5/1 denman than the 6/1 snowy now is (McCoy booked). Denman will have the perfect folly with Naunton Brook in the field as that horse will take them along at a decent gallop. Monkerhostin is a big price but 10yo's dont win the race & perhaps his best days have gone although the old boy will still be in all the big races this season. Abragante is my main worry off such a low weight but would need to improve again (no doubt it will) but with yet another jockey change, thats a negative for me.

[Woodie]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Final Decs. Having backed Snowy Morning earlier in the week am happy to see AP booked :) Will post up some thoughts tomorrow. 1 11111- Denman 262 P F Nicholls 55 7 11-12 Sam Thomas 161 167 159 3-3 0-0 2 12P7-6 Juveigneur 14 N J Henderson 36 10 11-3 Mick Fitzgerald 152 167 166 0-8 0-2 3 3173-4 Madison Du Berlais 28 D E Pipe 50 6 11-2 Paddy Merrigan(3) 151 169 162 0-3 0-0 4 80U-13 Knowhere 14 N A Twiston-Davies 42 9 11-2 P J Brennan 151 172 151 1-5 0-0 5 31103- Dom D´Orgeval 232 D E Pipe 50 7 10-13 Paul Moloney 148 161 145 1-6 0-0 6 2267-1 New Alco (ex6) 19 Ferdy Murphy 42 6 10-11 G Lee 140 170 152 1-7 0-0 7 1d-1327 Always Waining 24 P Bowen 42 6 10-10p T J O´Brien 145 169 153 1-4 0-0 8 26/F-4 Strong Flow 28 D T Hughes 79 10 10-8 R Loughran 143 150 119 3-5 1-2 9 21124- Snowy Morning 221 W P Mullins 42 7 10-8 A P McCoy 143 174 169 0-1 0-0 10 0PP0-1 Sir Rembrandt (ex6) 14 V R A Dartnall 67 11 10-8 James White(3) 137 175 104 2-13 1-5 11 U59P-0 Patsy Hall 14 A J Martin 27 7 10-7 Jason Maguire 142 153 153 0-1 0-0 12 24361- Dream Alliance 219 P J Hobbs 44 6 10-7 Richard Johnson 142 166 114 1-4 0-0 13 1PP2-P D´Argent 14 A King 57 10 10-6b1 J A McCarthy 141 167 170 1-6 1-1 14 33F2-0 Point Barrow 33 P Hughes 33 9 10-6 Dominic Elsworth 141 171 124 0-0 0-0 15 341-11 Abragante 21 D E Pipe 50 6 10-4b D N Russell 139 169 114 2-6 0-0 16 1412P- Character Building 224 J J Quinn 14 7 10-0 Denis O´Regan 134 169 158 0-1 1-1 17 0211-4 Bible Lord 17 Andrew Turnell 75 6 10-0 Mark Grant 131 164 140 1-4 0-0 18 5-612F Bowleaze 21 R H Alner 47 8 10-0 Robert Walford 127 161 134 1-7 0-0

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Will look further tomorrow but initial thoughts are that having heard Nicholls I am not sure about Denman winning tomorrow. I can actually see it running well and being placed but comments like it is a tough task, he is very difficult to get right first up, we have to run him somewhere and on equal weights in the Lexus he will be spot on suggests that for him to win tomorrow it will be a mighty performance that would surprise the trainer and certainly last year he got better as the season went on, early on in the season, he won, but was not as visuably impressive as later. The problem I am finding is what to take him on with. I will be watching Pipe's run today as he is still a bit in and out and I would like to see his run better before fancying Abragante maybe and even Dom Dorgeval. Abragante has some class about him but at the same time is quirky and Murphy who gets on so well, not being available on him is a negative. Plus if it was a battle at the finish, I would not be banking on this one. Dom Dorgeval is more interesting at an e.w price. A lot to find with Denman despite weight from the RSA run but I do not think it was at its best that day and it improved after that when a staying on third. Earlier that year it beat L'Antartique. A strong pace with a galloping track could just see this one staying on and atm I like this one at a price but no final decision.

[Carl]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec as much of 'fan' of Denman Im opposing, Nicholls didnt seem that confident the other day and the fact its top weight has put me off. I hear the jungle drums have been out for NEW ALCO who looks a good thing despite the penalty

[859959]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Juveigneur is interesting for me. Trainer and jockey now exactly what it takes to win this race. At a nice each way price well worth a serious look.

[bowles10]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec

Juveigneur is interesting for me. Trainer and jockey now exactly what it takes to win this race. At a nice each way price well worth a serious look.

:welcometo the forum, hope you find your way around this great place. The only thing that puts me off Juveigner is its age, now 10yo not sure if this type of race has passed it by. henderson seems to have gone off the boil a bit lately & had some decent horses scrambling home earlier this week. The rain has now come & will get into the ground a bit but the forecast tomorrow is a bit better.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec I'll try and deduce the best 4 horses from last 10 years stats: Age has been in a factor in the last 10 years with only one winner at 9 years or older so that rules out Juveigneur, Knowhere, Strong Flow, Sir Rembrandt, D'Argent & Point Barrow. No horse has won the race with a price of more than 16/1 so that rules out Madison Du Berlais, Always Waining, Dream Alliance & Bowleaze. No horse has won the race in the last 10 years with an RPR of less than 155 so that rules out Patsy Hall. 11 out 7 remain! No horse had finished out the first 3 prior to winning this race so that rules out Snowy Morning, Character Building & Bible Lord. Leaving: Denman Dom D'Orgeval New Alco Abragante Could this be the 1st 4 home? .

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec if denman wasn't such a big horse, i'd be worried about the weight.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec As Nicholls horses are needing a run and it's masive weight with also Sam Thomas on and not Ruby Walsh I will swerve Denman. However I may do a multiple tri-cast with the 4 horses previously stated. Abragante is a bit of a monkey and needs everything to fall right and not since it's first ever run in an NH Flat race has another jockey other than Timmy Murphy has won him! so again I will serve him as his price is no value at all also. New Alco has never ran at the course and exprience of the track seems essential from past winners. He has also never won 2 races on the bounce! and again no value at the price so again I'll swerve it. Which leaves me with Dom D'Orgeval @17.00 Bet365 Each Way Paul Moloney who rides won the race on State of Play last year! Ground went against it last year in The Royal & Sun Alliance Chase against Denman and has a 13lb pull on Denman from that race. Ground should be perfect for it with the rain today and tonight! I think this horse is the one to bustle up a maybe not so cherry ripe Denman! :hope .

[Woodie]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Loads of cash queing up to back Snowy Morning at the moment is now as low as 6.6 to back on betfair. Carries on like this he'll be fav by the morning!

[859959]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec

As Nicholls horses are needing a run and it's masive weight with also Sam Thomas on and not Ruby Walsh I will swerve Denman. However I may do a multiple tri-cast with the 4 horses previously stated. Abragante is a bit of a monkey and needs everything to fall right and not since it's first ever run in an NH Flat race has another jockey other than Timmy Murphy has won him! so again I will serve him as his price is no value at all also. New Alco has never ran at the course and exprience of the track seems essential from past winners. He has also never won 2 races on the bounce! and again no value at the price so again I'll swerve it. Which leaves me with Dom D'Orgeval @17.00 Bet365 Each Way Paul Moloney who rides won the race on State of Play last year! Ground went against it last year in The Royal & Sun Alliance Chase against Denman and has a 13lb pull on Denman from that race. Ground should be perfect for it with the rain today and tonight! I think this horse is the one to bustle up a maybe not so cherry ripe Denman! :hope .

I agree with your opinion on abragante but Davy Russell is a interesting jockey booking? Also I am going to have a look at the Tony Martin horse he is a master at laying horses out to win and money for him would be interesting.

[alexmac]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Denman on the drift - out to 4's from 10/3 earlier. As someone mentioned before, Snowy Morning is all the rage. He has been backed, especially after the booking of AP, and looks set to go off at 5/1ish. For what it is worth, it is absolutely TIPPING with rain here, and I am 15 miles from Newbury. I reckon the ground could turn to SOFT overnight. I have taken on Denman with E/W bets on Abragante and Snowy Morning. Denman could run a massive race and romp home, but I really think he will come on for a run and I am all for taking him on tomorrow. Weight stops horses, and carrying top weight around Newbury in the mud won't be an easy task.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Cheers for that info alex, that makes Dom D'Orgeval an even better bet as it loves the soft ground! David Pipe had been quiet before today when he had 2 winners at Newbury, looks like he's been saving his horses for the bigger meetings. He has Abragante and Dom D'Orgeval for tomorrows race and I am certain if it becomes any softer Dom D'Orgeval will half in price! If anybody is against Denman it might be an idea to try and get your prices now as the bookies will inevitably carve them up tomorrow! I'll return the favour whenever any big meetings are at Aintree! :ok

[cavello]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Abragante @6/1:hope Must be a bet in a race that often won by young rapidly improving types. Will stay and acts on the surface. In good form(won easily last race) and still got an OR for chasing below hurdle level. As usual moderate stakes in an handicap. There are much better bets in non-handicaps any day of the week but still a little value here.

[jtw1]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Must agree with you CAVELLOMAN :ok HENNESSY GOLD CUP --------------------- Not highlighted in the trends section of the RFO but the BY THE NUMBERS article in the same paper gives us a few clues and coupled with the ATR microsite for the race we can get a selection 19/22 carried UNDER 11:00 12/15 won LTO 18/19 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO 2nd season runners have won 6 from the last 8 10/13 were in the top 4 in the betting The last 9 runnings have been won by a 6 to 8y-old ABRAGANTE narrowly gets the nod over NEW ALCO as the BADGER BEER CHASE has been a decent pointer in the past.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Hi Jtw & Cavelloman Interesting you both go for Abragante - can you trust a different jockey on him? it's quite tempremental and has only ever won once (first time out in a NH Flat race) without Timmy Murphy in the saddle!

[cavello]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec I rarely take notice of the jockey an overrated commodity IMO.:loon

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec I would have fancied Abragante if Timmy Murphy was on it, but I know the horse is a right monkey and if not ridden the right way it sulks. I think Jockeymanship is really important and good though Davy Russell is he is not familiar with Abragante! I know Russell will probably ask Murphy how to ride him, but experience counts for a lot and at 6/1 that is far too skinny for such a tempremental horse. But hey! what do I know? that is the beauty of this forum all conflicting opinions and it is nice every now and again to get it right! Good Luck anyhows everyone :hope I can't wait for the race!

[bowles10]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec yep its been raining since 3.30 here today & still pouring down. the going will be soft if not worse. Better forecast tomorrow though. 3m 2f is going to take some getting tomorrow

[Carl]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec sorry stuck this in the Newbury thread,

New Alco 2.40 Newbury Expected to run a big race today with the step up in trip likely to suit (has run over 26F finishing 2nd to D'Argent), ground should be spot on and can take this with the penatly for that 11L romp at Carlisle.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Final decision. 2.40 Denman 5/1 10 pts e.w. I have highlighted how concerns of the trainer regarding fitness are a big problem as well as the weight but it has drifted to an e.w price and I would be a bit disappointed if it could not at least be in the four for a horse they are talking Gold Cups about. Also it will be a test and will be made a test for the rest of the field so it could well gallop many of these out of this. Dom D'Orgeval 20/1 7.5 pts e.w I wanted Pipe to show improved form and he did yesterday and I prefer this one to his other and probably better handicapped rival. It has a fair bit of weight and all to do with others in the field from the RSA race but it did really run its true race that day imo and the form with L'Antartique and after the Cheltenham race are a better indication plus it was a good hurdler so chase form is limited relatively at the moment but improvement expected. I expect the conditions and race style will suit as it should be staying on.

[RussP]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec At 16/1 with Skybet, I like the look of Tony Martins raider Patsy Hall. Has a pipe opener 2 weeks ago and trainer will have the horse spot on for this. Has mixed form but has raced in some top races and will have its favoured soft ground for this. 12 months ago, this horse gave Aces Four a 9L beating so is certainly capable here of just 10-7. Nice EW bet.

[leics poshie]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Unbelievable, you will never get 11/2 on that horse ever again, fantastic performance:gimme

[Woodie]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec What an amazing performance! and he can only improve from that race! Has to be new fav for the Gold cup after that. Well done to everyone who backed him :clap

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec

What an amazing performance! and he can only improve from that race! Has to be new fav for the Gold cup after that. Well done to everyone who backed him :clap

What does Ruby do now? Still I would not make him fav past Kauto Star though.

[bowles10]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec

For those who read the ante post thread, you will know that i took the 5/1 on Denman a week or so ago. I still believe that was value against a decent bunch of handicappers. Denman is the real star here & will be contesting the Gold cup come March 2008. I dont think it will have any problem with the trip & has won on the course already twice. It has a hefty weight to carry around & the only other horse in 10 years to win off top weight was Trabolgan. I think Snowy Morning has a lot to prove also & i would rather have my 5/1 denman than the 6/1 snowy now is (McCoy booked). Denman will have the perfect folly with Naunton Brook in the field as that horse will take them along at a decent gallop. Monkerhostin is a big price but 10yo's dont win the race & perhaps his best days have gone although the old boy will still be in all the big races this season. Abragante is my main worry off such a low weight but would need to improve again (no doubt it will) but with yet another jockey change, thats a negative for me.

:nana:nana:nana:nana:nanaYES - GET IN glad i stayed with it now what a horse that is.

[Carl]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec Cheltenhams gonna go mental next year, a proper Clash of the titans. Fooking cant wait now.

[leics poshie]

Re: Hennessey Gold Cup Sat 1st Dec

What does Ruby do now? Still I would not make him fav past Kauto Star though.

I would after that performance