Regression Digression Premiership. bets:120 yield:+1%

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds	result	profit
Sivasspor	Manisaspor	0.85	h	1.98	h	0.93
Nitra	Senec	1.62	h	1.34	h	0.32
Le Havre	Amiens	1.55	h	1.64	d	-1.00
Newcastle	Tottenham	1.48	h	2.52	h	1.44

BOTH					HOMES				AWAYS
	bets	233			bets	135		bets	98
wins	114			wins	71		wins	43
strike	49%			strike	53%		strike	44%
profit	10.87			profit	-4.47		profit	15.35
yield	4.7%			yield	-3.3%		yield	15.7%
av odds	2.16			av odds	1.86		av odds	2.79
exp wins	107.7			exp wins	72.6		exp wins	35.2
exp loss	125.3			exp loss	62.4		exp loss	62.8
act wins	114			act wins	71		act wins	43
act losses	119			act losses	64		act losses	55
wins ahead	6.3			wins ahead	-1.6		wins ahead	7.8
chi	59.0%			chi	21.1%		chi	90.1%

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
Cardiff	Wolves	-0.14	a	3.40

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds	result	profit
Cardiff	Wolves	-0.14	a	3.40	a	2.28

BOTH					HOMES				AWAYS
	bets	234			bets	135		bets	99
wins	115			wins	71		wins	44
strike	49%			strike	53%		strike	44%
profit	13.15			profit	-4.47		profit	17.63
yield	5.6%			yield	-3.3%		yield	17.8%
av odds	2.17			av odds	1.86		av odds	2.79
exp wins	108.0			exp wins	72.6		exp wins	35.5
exp loss	126.0			exp loss	62.4		exp loss	63.5
act wins	115			act wins	71		act wins	44
act losses	119			act losses	64		act losses	55
wins ahead	7.0			wins ahead	-1.6		wins ahead	8.5
chi	64.0%			chi	21.1%		chi	92.6%

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression friday bets: still waiting on galway price

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
Dijon	Libourne	0.82	h	1.78
Galway United	Derry City	1.02	h
	Guimaraes	Leiria	0.87	h	1.80
Lech Poznan	Cracovia Kraków	1.78	h	1.54
Rapid Wien	LASK Linz	1.85	h	1.84
Sedan	Reims	1.57	h	1.88
Tranmere	Huddersfield	1.01	h	1.85
Vitesse	Willem II	1.58	h	1.69

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
Ajaccio	Bastia	-0.06	a	3.40
Amiens	Chateauroux	-0.45	a	4.10
Angers	Le Havre	-0.16	a	2.72
Greuther Furth	M gladbach	-0.16	a	2.82
Montpellier	Clermont	-0.72	a	5.80

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression and another for friday

Gent

Bergen

+1.14

h

1.65

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression and a few more friday homes:

Mainz	Augsburg	+1.06	h	1.54
St Pauli	Wehen	+0.86	h	2.32

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression still more for friday:

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
Galway United	Derry City	1.02	h	2.38
Waterford	Drogheda United	-0.99	a	2.6
Belchatow	Lodz LKS	-0.22	a	7.6

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression

1200	sat	Tecos	Real San Luis	-0.36	a	3.55
915	sat	Trinec	Olomouc HFK	-0.33	a	2.40

a late nighter and early sat morning.

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression Can I just be the first to congratulate you on a truly barnstorming evening. If you keep that pace up the bookies are gonna put a hit on you:lol I picked the right night to get on this program didn't I:loon

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression BOOM! :nana:cheers:drums well, the homes returned a yield of 30% and the aways a yield of 170% yesterday! absolutely awesome! thanks for the support Gooner. Is anyone else following this? :wall

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds	result	profit
Dijon	Libourne	0.82	h	1.78	h	0.74
Guimaraes	Leiria	0.87	h	1.80	h	0.76
Lech Poznan	Cracovia Kraków	1.78	h	1.54	h	0.51
Rapid Wien	LASK Linz	1.85	h	1.84	d	-1.00
Sedan	Reims	1.57	h	1.88	h	0.84
Tranmere	Huddersfield	1.01	h	1.85	h	0.81
Vitesse	Willem II	1.58	h	1.69	h	0.66
Gent	Bergen	1.14	h	1.65	h	0.62
Mainz	Augsburg	1.06	h	1.54	d	-1.00
St Pauli	Wehen	0.86	h	2.32	d	-1.00
Galway United	Derry City	1.02	h	2.38	h	1.31

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds	result	profit
Ajaccio	Bastia	-0.06	a	3.40	a	2.28
Amiens	Chateauroux	-0.45	a	4.10	a	2.95
Angers	Le Havre	-0.16	a	2.72	a	1.63
Greuther Furth	M gladbach	-0.16	a	2.82	a	1.73
Montpellier	Clermont	-0.72	a	5.80	a	4.56
Waterford	Drogheda United	-0.99	a	2.60	d	-1.00
Belchatow	Lodz LKS	-0.22	a	7.60	h	-1.00
Tecos	Real San Luis	-0.36	a	3.55	a	2.42

BOTH					HOMES				AWAYS
	bets	253			bets	146		bets	107
wins	129			wins	79		wins	50
strike	51%			strike	54%		strike	47%
profit	29.97			profit	-1.23		profit	31.20
yield	11.8%			yield	-0.8%		yield	29.2%
av odds	2.17			av odds	1.86		av odds	2.84
exp wins	116.3			exp wins	78.6		exp wins	37.7
exp loss	136.7			exp loss	67.4		exp loss	69.3
act wins	129			act wins	79		act wins	50
act losses	124			act losses	67		act losses	57
wins ahead	12.7			wins ahead	0.4		wins ahead	12.3
chi	89.0%			chi	4.9%		chi	98.7%

[muhkel]

Re: Regression Digression hi, I did with first 5 aways :drums gl in rest :hope

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression saturday's and early sunday's selections. yellow cells indicate price not taken yet. if i don't post them up then they are NOT included, as you'd expect.

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
Airdrie Utd	Berwick	1.11	h	1.57
Ascoli	Cesena	1.65	h	1.80
Atlante	Necaxa	1.01	h	1.65
Atvidabergs FF	Landskrona	1.01	h	2.06
Bielefeld	Cottbus	0.89	h	1.91
Birmingham	Wigan	1.06	h	2.14
Bordeaux	Valenciennes	1.10	h	1.86
Brentford	Lincoln	0.99	h	2.28
Brescia	Triestina	1.04	h	1.59
Charlton	QPR	2.09	h	1.55
Cruzeiro	Atlético Paranaense	0.84	h	1.68
Domzale	Primorje Ajdovscina	1.34	h
	Elche	Cadiz	1.86	h	2.28
Excelsior	Heracles	1.00	h	2.34
Ferrol	Sociedad	0.92	h
	Grasshoppers Zurich	Aarau FC	1.09	h	1.94
Gretna	Inverness C	1.01	h	3.50
Grosseto	Pisa	1.34	h	3.50
Hertha	Bochum	1.61	h	1.90
Hibernian	St Mirren	1.48	h	1.47
Hull	Sheffield United	1.10	h	2.65
Kasimpasa	Fenerbahce	0.91	h	6.90
Leeds	Millwall	2.40	h	1.51
Man United	Middlesbrough	1.70	h	1.23
Milton Keynes Dons	Stockport	2.17	h	1.51
Mjällby	Falkenbergs FF	1.41	h	3.30
Modena	Avellino	1.04	h	1.61
Monaco	Caen	1.74	h	1.75
Morecambe	Rochdale	1.09	h	2.68
Napoli	Juventus	1.80	h	3.50
NK Maribor	Nafta	1.11	h
	Notts County	Wrexham	1.55	h	2.00
Odra Wodzislaw	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1.06	h	1.82
Ravenna	Treviso	2.01	h	2.63
Roeselare	St Truiden	1.12	h	1.90
Ross County	Queens Park	1.11	h	1.52
Ruch Chorzow	Polonia Bytom	1.64	h	1.87
Shrewsbury	Mansfield	1.60	h	1.91
St Etienne	Auxerre	1.76	h	1.95
Sunderland	Fulham	0.81	h	2.12
Vicenza	Spezia	0.86	h	2.28
West Brom	Norwich	2.88	h	1.43
Westerlo	Germinal	0.89	h	2.24
Zlín	Jablonec	0.90	h	2.34

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
Trinec	Olomouc HFK	-0.33	a	2.40
Alloa	Raith Rvs	-0.21	a	2.34
Ankaraspor	Genclerbirligi	-0.75	a	3.20
BK Frem Kobenhavn	Koge BK	-0.40	a
	Cardiff	Scunthorpe	-0.66	a	4.90
Darlington	Chesterfield	-0.02	a	3.55
Degerfors	Norrkoping	-0.77	a	2.24
Dender	Mouscron	-0.78	a	2.28
Dubnica	Kosice FC	-0.11	a
	FC Brussels	Charleroi	-0.13	a	2.50
Frosinone	Bologna	-0.08	a	2.80
Hansa Rostock	Karlsruhe	-0.58	a	3.05
Jaguares Chiapas	Toluca	-0.40	a
	Jonkoping Sodra IF	IK Sirius Uppsala	-1.07	a	5.60
Las Palmas	Granada 74	-0.52	a	4.00
Lille	Strasbourg	-0.34	a	5.60
Macclesfield	Bury	-0.07	a	3.20
Monterey	Pachuca	-0.14	a
	Nacional	Sp Lisbon	-0.04	a	1.84
Partick	Dundee	-0.05	a	2.20
Peterboro	Hereford	-0.02	a	4.40
Piacenza	Chievo	-1.41	a	2.46
Port Vale	Swindon	-1.11	a	2.60
Preston	Plymouth	-0.44	a	3.05
Rimini	Lecce	-0.13	a	4.50
Setubal	Pacos Ferreira	-0.20	a	4.80
Sheffield Weds	Blackpool	-1.18	a	3.80
Stirling	Dunfermline	-0.30	a	2.30
Twente	Feyenoord	-0.07	a	2.60
VVV Venlo	Heerenveen	-0.03	a	1.73
Wolfsburg	Nurnberg	-0.17	a	3.90
Yeovil	Swansea	-1.25	a	2.64
Zaglebie Lubin	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	-0.03	a	12.00

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression

BOOM! :nana:cheers:drums well, the homes returned a yield of 30% and the aways a yield of 170% yesterday! absolutely awesome! thanks for the support Gooner. Is anyone else following this? :wall

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds	result	profit
Dijon	Libourne	0.82	h	1.78	h	0.74
Guimaraes	Leiria	0.87	h	1.80	h	0.76
Lech Poznan	Cracovia Kraków	1.78	h	1.54	h	0.51
Rapid Wien	LASK Linz	1.85	h	1.84	d	-1.00
Sedan	Reims	1.57	h	1.88	h	0.84
Tranmere	Huddersfield	1.01	h	1.85	h	0.81
Vitesse	Willem II	1.58	h	1.69	h	0.66
Gent	Bergen	1.14	h	1.65	h	0.62
Mainz	Augsburg	1.06	h	1.54	d	-1.00
St Pauli	Wehen	0.86	h	2.32	d	-1.00
Galway United	Derry City	1.02	h	2.38	h	1.31

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds	result	profit
Ajaccio	Bastia	-0.06	a	3.40	a	2.28
Amiens	Chateauroux	-0.45	a	4.10	a	2.95
Angers	Le Havre	-0.16	a	2.72	a	1.63
Greuther Furth	M gladbach	-0.16	a	2.82	a	1.73
Montpellier	Clermont	-0.72	a	5.80	a	4.56
Waterford	Drogheda United	-0.99	a	2.60	d	-1.00
Belchatow	Lodz LKS	-0.22	a	7.60	h	-1.00
Tecos	Real San Luis	-0.36	a	3.55	a	2.42

BOTH				HOMES			AWAYS
bets	253			bets	146		bets	107
wins	129			wins	79		wins	50
strike	51%			strike	54%		strike	47%
profit	29.97			profit	-1.23		profit	31.20
yield	11.8%			yield	-0.8%		yield	29.2%
av odds	2.17			av odds	1.86		av odds	2.84
exp wins	116.3			exp wins	78.6		exp wins	37.7
exp loss	136.7			exp loss	67.4		exp loss	69.3
act wins	129			act wins	79		act wins	50
act losses	124			act losses	67		act losses	57
wins ahead	12.7			wins ahead	0.4		wins ahead	12.3
chi	89.0%			chi	4.9%		chi	98.7%

Actually reflecting onn things I must say that i'm disappointed you only managed an overall yield of 200%:lol

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression

h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
Domzale	Primorje Ajdovscina	1.34	h	1.42
Ferrol	Sociedad	0.92	h	2.62

[Matthew]

Re: Regression Digression Well done muppet77............things are progressing well. How are you finding the workload? Does it take you long to prepare all the bets?

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression not really matthew. actually this is the first weekend where i am using my automated system. i cut the fixtures from 'livescores' and paste them into my spreadsheet. the sheet then flags up the bets. takes about 2 mins to do fri, sat and sun! the hardest bit is looking all the odds up on betfair.

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression Seems as though I may well have simultaneously picked both the best and worst days of this system so far. Last night is being wiped out an astonishing speed:puke

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression Or maybe not. What an amazing turnaround. Cheers for this muppet, it looks to have serious legs! Just one thing, and if it's too much hassle, just say, but I noticed you put starting times before but not this weekend. When placing 72 bets in the most randomly obscure leagues it's not easy haha!! Took me a couple hours this morning, no joke haha!! Any chance you would be able to list the league and start time? If not I fully understand. Found most at betfair but a couple so far they just didn't have as far as I could see.

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression Toluca 2.52 and pachuca 2.42 both aways.

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression Bloody South American teams and bloody 0-0 draws!!! Still, if the last one wins it's not too bad after yesterday. What ya got for us tomor muppet?

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression

sunday	h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
11:00	Sp Gijon	Celta	1.05	h	2.38
12:00	Ankaragucu	Rizespor	1.46	h	1.94
12:00	Bryne IL	Notodden	2.53	h	1.65
12:00	Haugar Haugesund	Lov Ham	1.12	h	1.94
12:00	Skeid	Hönefoss Liv/Fossekallen	0.86	h	3.90
13:00	FC Koln	Paderborn	1.17	h	1.47
13:00	Midtjylland FC	Viborg FF	1.64	h	1.45
13:30	Bohemians 1905	Most	1.94	h	2.42
14:00	Catania	Sampdoria	1.60	h	2.86
14:00	Djurgarden IF	Brommapojkarna	0.88	h	1.22
14:00	Fredericia	Nastved	1.61	h	1.62
14:00	Hammarby	GAIS Gothenburg	0.96	h	1.90
14:00	Kolding	Hvidovre Kobenhavn	0.99	h	1.41
14:00	Orebro SK	Gefle	1.56	h	2.10
14:00	Siena	Reggina	1.54	h	2.26
16:00	Est Amadora	Boavista	1.34	h	2.34
16:00	Eibar	Salamanca	0.82	h	2.18
16:00	Numancia	Gimnastic	2.50	h	2.12
16:00	Santander	Getafe	1.56	h	2.28
16:00	Real Madrid	La Coruna	1.00	h	1.36
16:00	Teplice	Zizkov Viktoria	1.71	h	1.57
17:00	Le Mans	Toulouse	0.99	h	2.04
17:00	Odense	Bröndby Kobenhavn	1.07	h	2.04
17:00	Rosenborg Trondheim	Lyn SFK	1.36	h	1.59
18:00	América Natal	Flamengo	1.05	h	5.70
18:00	Barcelona	Almeria	1.15	h	1.21
18:30	Basel FC	Young Boys Bern	1.30	h	1.62
18:30	Wisla Krakow	Legia Warszawa	0.84	h	1.82
20:10	Parana Clube	Internacional	1.73	h	2.66

sunday	h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
10:00	BK Frem Kobenhavn	Koge BK	-0.40	a	2.46
11:30	Utrecht	Ajax	-1.05	a	2.10
12:00	Konyaspor	Sivasspor	-0.60	a	2.98
12:00	Molde FK	Raufoss	-0.67	a	5.90
12:00	Tromsdalen	Sogndal	-0.04	a	3.80
13:00	Livar Iv. Gorica	Interblock Ljubljana	-1.42	a	1.76
13:30	Sparta	PSV Eindhoven	-0.14	a	1.54
14:00	Milan	Roma	-1.22	a	4.60
14:00	Derby	Everton	-0.31	a	2.20
14:00	Lazio	Udinese	-0.06	a	3.60
14:00	Palermo	Inter	-0.54	a	2.08
15:00	Thun	Zurich FC	-0.52	a	1.88
15:00	Tottenham	Blackburn	-0.83	a	3.50
16:00	Dortmund	Bayern Munich	-0.66	a	1.87
16:00	Cordoba	Hercules	-0.04	a	3.40
16:00	Levante	Ath Madrid	-0.09	a	1.70
16:00	Liverpool	Arsenal	-0.19	a	3.15
16:00	Duisburg	Hamburg	-0.22	a	2.02
16:00	Xerez	Sevilla B	-0.42	a	3.80
16:00	Zaragoza	Villarreal	-0.10	a	3.20
17:00	Albacete	Malaga	-1.04	a	2.28
17:00	Denizlispor	Galatasaray	-0.80	a	1.87
17:00	Lens	Rennes	-0.52	a	3.70
17:00	Start Kristiansand	Lilleström	-0.70	a	2.40
17:00	Valerengen	Aalesund	-0.32	a	5.00
18:00	Gremio	Nautico Recife	-0.06	a	6.20
19:30	Genk	Club Brugge	-0.17	a	3.10
19:30	Genoa	Fiorentina	-0.03	a	2.80
20:00	Paris SG	Lyon	-0.95	a	2.34
20:00	Sevilla	Valencia	-0.20	a	3.55
20:10	Juventude	Botafogo	-0.40	a	2.96
20:10	Vasco da Gama	Palmeiras	-1.29	a	3.20

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression Thanks Muppet, this format makes it so much more user friendly. Are you actually placing hard cash on this yourself at all or is it just me haha? So far, i've been incredibly lucky as not missed one win but have missed several losses haha! Juat as well though, as the odds I get are often somewhat skewed from what they were. Keep up the good work mate, it is much appreciated!

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression cheers mate. i am on the aways today with cash. the first 5 aways have already got a yield of 159% thanks to 3 wins from 5 high odds games. :clap

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression

cheers mate. i am on the aways today with cash. the first 5 aways have already got a yield of 159% thanks to 3 wins from 5 high odds games. :clap

Crazy to be having such a strike rate on these kinds of odds. Homes aren't doing too badly either. I'm on them all.....I can't not be haha!!

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression well on the day that's a 13% yield on homes and a 32% yield on aways giving an overall daily yield of 23%. gooner - it would take a while to post up leagues, but it is not necessary. in betfair, just paste and copy the home team into th esearch box in the top left hand corner. this usually gives you the match you need instead of going through all the leagues. it doesn't like accents and complicated names so sometimes you have to search for the away team if it is simpler. other problems may be - name variations. eg i have Valerengen, but bf calls them Valerenga, but the search method is much much quicker.

BOTH					HOMES				AWAYS
	bets	388			bets	218		bets	170
wins	191			wins	117		wins	74
strike	49%			strike	54%		strike	44%
profit	36.20			profit	-1.45		profit	37.65
yield	9.3%			yield	-0.7%		yield	22.1%
av odds	2.20			av odds	1.88		av odds	2.82
exp wins	176.0			exp wins	115.8		exp wins	60.2
exp loss	212.0			exp loss	102.2		exp loss	109.8
act wins	191			act wins	117		act wins	74
act losses	197			act losses	101		act losses	96
wins ahead	15.0			wins ahead	1.2		wins ahead	13.8
chi	87.3%			chi	12.5%		chi	97.3%

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression

kick off	h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
19:30	Naval	Sp Braga	0.87	h	4.30

kick off	h	a	supremacy	bet	odds
16:15	Liberec	Slavia Praha	-1.07	a	2.46
19:05	Trnava	Nitra	-0.02	a	4.10
19:30	Niort	Nantes	-0.92	a	2.02

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression

gooner - it would take a while to post up leagues, but it is not necessary. in betfair, just paste and copy the home team into th esearch box in the top left hand corner. this usually gives you the match you need instead of going through all the leagues. it doesn't like accents and complicated names so sometimes you have to search for the away team if it is simpler. other problems may be - name variations. eg i have Valerengen, but bf calls them Valerenga, but the search method is much much quicker.

Hi that's fine muppet. Found out how to do that yesterday. The kickoff times is a real help though as avoided me having to rush through the list like a crazy haha!! Sterling work and I hope you continue to post this for a long long time. Maybe after things have bedded down you would share the variables used. Would be very interested to know and if for any reason you were unable to post for a while it would be good to carry on your work. Cheers gooner

[ArtMaster]

Re: Regression Digression Hello Muppet, First off this looks an interesting thread and going very well so far, so hats off to that. Just a quick question and I apologise if this has been stated but I didnt see it looking through just now..... With each match there is obviously a supremacy rating - in the backtesting did you work out how each match in the past ended with each relevant rating to establish 'true odds'? And then use this to establish value in each future game? Or how do you establish which games to pick, in relation to what the odds are? I hope that makes sense.

[happygooner]

Re: Regression Digression It would be interesting to know how two of our teams, Slavia & Naval, performed today prior to the sendings off. Just wondered if there is any way of seeing whether high priced (4's & over) home wins have won over the years you've backtested and how frequently? Just seems that although only a small amount of results to go on here, high priced home wins not really doing it. Any ideas?

[muppet77]

Re: Regression Digression artmaster - i do not use the supremacy figure to derive a price - i tried this without any success in backtesting. i simply use cutoff values on the supremacy to generate "no bet", "home bet" or "away bet".

It would be interesting to know how two of our teams, Slavia & Naval, performed today prior to the sendings off.

as far as i can tell both results were going the right way at half time. slavia had a man sent off, then scored!

Just wondered if there is any way of seeing whether high priced (4's & over) home wins have won over the years you've backtested and how frequently?

out of 7200 back tested matches, home picks with odds > 4 only came to 3 teams! (all 3 won) i feel that by doing this though, or looking at odds >3, odds>2 etc i am tring to back fit the data too much. if homes don't work and aways give a 20% yield by xmas, then i will be happy.