muppet77 Posted September 21, 2007 Share Posted September 21, 2007 ok time to get another system up and running. for this i have looked at 6 key variables in the premiership which i believe help to predict the result of a game better than the bookies. bets will be even 1pt stakes to start with. bank = 100 Aston Villa Everton 3.75 a<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Fulham <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />ManCity 2.72 h Reading Wigan 2.16 h Blackburn Portsmouth 2.1 h Bolton Tottenham 3.1 h Man United Chelsea 2.14 h Newcastle West Ham 2.18 h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 22, 2007 Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Regression Digression What are the 6 variables? Good luck.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetallicIan Posted September 22, 2007 Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Regression Digression Good luck muppet me old chum. :ok One can only guess how many hours (weeks?) you've put into preparing this baby!! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Regression Digression took a little while, but may be worth it. i would rather not say what the variables are at this stage . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Regression Digression a bit of regression help was discussed here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?p=892203&posted=1#post892203 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 23, 2007 Author Share Posted September 23, 2007 Re: Regression Digression odds -1.00 2.72 Fulham:$ Man City 1.10 2.16 Reading:) Wigan -1.00 3.75 Aston Villa Everton:$ -1.00 2.1 Blackburn:$ Portsmouth -1.00 3.1 Bolton:$ Tottenham 1.08 2.14 Man United:) Chelsea 1.12 2.18 Newcastle:) West Ham -0.69 profit -10% yield not a bad start. bolton came pretty close. time will tell how this idea will work. i have removed the BF commission on my profit figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 28, 2007 Author Share Posted September 28, 2007 Re: Regression Digression ok, after a bit of back testing i'm going to split the bets into home and aways and run separately, with a view that the AWAYS will out perform the homes. HOMES bets 6 wins 3 strike 50% profit +0.31 yield +5% AWAYS bets 1 wins 0 strike 0% profit -1 yield -100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 29, 2007 Author Share Posted September 29, 2007 Re: Regression Digression and here are today's picks using betfair: h a supremacy bet odds Chelsea Fulham 1.11 h 1.38 Portsmouth Reading 1.06 h 1.81 Burnley Crystal Palace 0.99 h 2.24 Hull Ipswich 1.47 h 2.52 Leicester Stoke 1.15 h 2.32 Norwich Sheffield Weds 2.28 h 2.18 West Brom QPR 2.12 h 1.52 Doncaster Cheltenham 1.51 h 1.88 Swansea Brighton 1.49 h 1.87 Tranmere Northampton 1.51 h 1.99 Darlington Peterboro 1.42 h 2.4 Shrewsbury Rochdale 2.32 h 1.85 h a supremacy bet odds West Ham Arsenal -0.37 a 1.87 Wigan Liverpool -0.44 a 1.69 Barnsley Cardiff -1.13 a 2.7 Plymouth Wolves -0.27 a 3.05 Bournemouth Carlisle -0.13 a 2.82 Yeovil Nott m Forest -0.52 a 2.78 Grimsby Hereford -1.39 a 3.05 Macclesfield Chester -1.69 a 3.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A3ke Posted September 29, 2007 Share Posted September 29, 2007 Re: Regression Digression Very interesting results! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JosTheelen Posted September 29, 2007 Share Posted September 29, 2007 Re: Regression Digression How did you calculate your 6 variables? If you estimated them with the same historical data, your results will look more positive than they should. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 29, 2007 Author Share Posted September 29, 2007 Re: Regression Digression How did you calculate your 6 variables? If you estimated them with the same historical data, your results will look more positive than they should. what do you mean mate? i had a list of around 60 variables and i picked out 6, using just 300 games from the english premiership. using a linear regression model i then used these coefficients to test out with the 7200 games in 36 world leagues. a bit of discussion was done here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/s...d=1#post892203 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JosTheelen Posted September 29, 2007 Share Posted September 29, 2007 Re: Regression Digression OK, I didn't know that. But it is very unlikely that your system is positive for all 36 leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 29, 2007 Share Posted September 29, 2007 Re: Regression Digression OK, I didn't know that. But it is very unlikely that your system is positive for all 36 leagues. Hence the questioning elation Muppet77 displays. Test it...........real-time. If it turns a profit in all leagues come the end of this season.......... Get every penny from every corner you can find and use it as your bank. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 30, 2007 Author Share Posted September 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression agreed matthew - the results surprise me just as everyone else. well, the aways looked awesome, as expected. yield -45.0% -4.95 h a supremacy bet odds result profit Chelsea Fulham 1.11 h 1.38 d -1.00 Portsmouth Reading 1.06 h 1.81 h 0.77 Burnley Crystal Palace 0.99 h 2.24 d -1.00 Hull Ipswich 1.47 h 2.52 h 1.44 Leicester Stoke 1.15 h 2.32 d -1.00 Norwich Sheffield Weds 2.28 h 2.18 a -1.00 West Brom QPR 2.12 h 1.52 Doncaster Cheltenham 1.51 h 1.88 h 0.84 Swansea Brighton 1.49 h 1.87 d -1.00 Tranmere Northampton 1.51 h 1.99 d -1.00 Darlington Peterboro 1.42 h 2.4 d -1.00 Shrewsbury Rochdale 2.32 h 1.85 a -1.00 yield 48.7% 3.90 h a supremacy bet odds result profit West Ham Arsenal -0.37 a 1.87 a 0.83 Wigan Liverpool -0.44 a 1.69 a 0.66 Barnsley Cardiff -1.13 a 2.7 d -1.00 Plymouth Wolves -0.27 a 3.05 d -1.00 Bournemouth Carlisle -0.13 a 2.82 a 1.73 Yeovil Nott m Forest -0.52 a 2.78 a 1.69 Grimsby Hereford -1.39 a 3.05 h -1.00 Macclesfield Chester -1.69 a 3.1 a 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 30, 2007 Author Share Posted September 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression BOTH HOMES AWAYS bets26 bets 17 bets 9 wins 11 wins 6 wins 5 strike 42% strike 35% strike 56% profit -1.75 profit -4.64 profit 2.90 yield -6.7% yield -27.3% yield 32.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 30, 2007 Author Share Posted September 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression h a supremacy bet odds West Brom QPR 2.12 h 1.52 Udinese Parma 0.84 h 2.02 Ath Madrid Osasuna 1.09 h 1.78 Halmstad BK GAIS Gothenburg 0.94 h 1.68 h a supremacy bet odds Heracles AZ Alkmaar -0.10 a 1.6 Empoli Palermo -1.01 a 2.66 Sampdoria Atalanta -0.18 a 4.6 Betis Mallorca -0.08 a 3.3 Villarreal Ath Bilbao -0.13 a 6.6 Getafe Real Madrid -0.75 a 1.86 Recreativo Valencia -0.11 a 2.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 30, 2007 Share Posted September 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression What cutoffs are you using? I see that the lowest "supremacy" you use in HWs to date is 0.84, but for AWs you go as low as -0.08. Is the "supremacy" value what you expect to be the difference in terms of expected goals? e.g Everton 2.543 Boro 2.333 So you would expect Everton to beat Boro by 0.21 goals? Have you set up excel to run through and calculate the optimal cutoffs for each and every league? Although this will be difficult maybe as you are applying a 1 season EPL model to all these different leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 30, 2007 Author Share Posted September 30, 2007 Re: Regression Digression your understanding of supremacy is correct matthew. i worked out the optimal cutoffs for the epl to be about +0.5 and -0.1, but then i investigated the champ, div1 and div2. these 3 leagues tended to be optimal around +0.8 and 0.0. i then retested the epl with these cutoffs and practically got similar yields. next i tested 0.8 and 0 on the 36 world leagues and the results can be seen as published earler. rather than have separate cutoffs for each league (which makes sense) i am sticking with 0.8 and 0, as (a) its easier and (b) it has been proven to work on thousands of blind backtests. i looked at the possibility of backing draws - either with cutoffs or simply between 0 and 0.8 but it pretty much broke even. well excited about today's bets as the toal bets will be 37 - a bit more reliable. thanks for your interest matthew. any other comments or suggestion or slagging will be listened to! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2007 Author Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression h a supremacy bet odds result profit West Brom QPR 2.12 h 1.52 h 0.49 Udinese Parma 0.84 h 2.02 h 0.97 Ath Madrid Osasuna 1.09 h 1.78 h 0.74 Halmstad BK GAIS Gothenburg 0.94 h 1.68 d -1.00 h a supremacy bet odds result profit Heracles AZ Alkmaar -0.10 a 1.6 h -1.00 Empoli Palermo -1.01 a 2.66 h -1.00 Sampdoria Atalanta -0.18 a 4.6 h -1.00 Betis Mallorca -0.08 a 3.3 h -1.00 Villarreal Ath Bilbao -0.13 a 6.6 h -1.00 Getafe Real Madrid -0.75 a 1.86 a 0.82 Recreativo Valencia -0.11 a 2.54 a 1.46 the coin flipped on sunday - the aways did badly and the homes stormed it. oh well, onwards and upwards. HOMES AWAYS bets21 bets 16 wins 9 wins 7 strike 43% strike 44% profit -3.44 profit 0.18 yield -16.4% yield 1.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2007 Author Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression h a supremacy bet odds Kalmar FF Malmö FF -0.05 a 3.7 Plzen Viktoria Ostrava Banik -0.33 a 2.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted October 1, 2007 Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression Muppet - where do you get your historical odds data from for all the European leagues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2007 Author Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression not sure if i can advertise it mate. it's a subscription service. will PM you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted October 1, 2007 Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression betexplorer.com has hudge free archive with results - odds - many leagues. Its a great free start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2007 Author Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression BOOM! Ostrava Banik win 0-2. to take the aways system in a guaranteed profit for now, regardless of the Malmo result (which has just kicked off). systme update later this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2007 Author Share Posted October 1, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted October 1, 2007 Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression Hi, I noticed the following: - Sweden's top division is the Allsvenskan and the next lower division is the Superettan. You've got them switched. - Norway's top division is usually known as Tippeligaen; Eliteserien is a colloquial (but not official) name - Norway's next lower division is correctly called the Adeccoligaen. - Please note that Mexico's main tournament runs in a six-month format. After December it will change its name to Clausura. Both names are Spanish for Opening/Closing respectively. Not an error but a (probable) omission: aren't you going to follow the Argentina league? Good luck with your system, if your results hold it will be truly awesome !! F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted October 1, 2007 Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression Good luck with your system, if your results hold it will be truly awesome !! Er, I didn't mean it as a skeptical comment, quite the opposite. I really meant 'I wish your results are the same as the ones you got in your tests because that will be truly awesome!! ' English as a 2nd Language woes :$ F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2007 Author Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression wow. thanks F. just handy to have a translator around! your english is very good! i have edited the post with this info. i am avoiding the argie league as i don't have regular access to the specific info that i need. i too hope the results live up to the backtesting. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 1, 2007 Author Share Posted October 1, 2007 Re: Regression Digression h asupremacybetoddsresultprofitKalmar FF Malmö FF -0.05 a 3.7 h -1.00 Plzen Viktoria Ostrava Banik -0.33 a 2.5 a 1.43 HOMES AWAYS bets21 bets 18 wins 9 wins 8 strike 43% strike 44% profit -3.44 profit 0.60 yield -16.4% yield 3.3% well, the aways are in the black. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2007 Author Share Posted October 2, 2007 Re: Regression Digression h a supremacy bet odds Darlington Rochdale 1.70 h 1.85 Burnley Ipswich 1.34 h 2.22 Port Vale Cheltenham 1.14 h 2.34 Tranmere Crewe 1.17 h 1.78 Bury Lincoln 1.14 h 2.54 Shrewsbury Peterboro 1.70 h 2.54 h a supremacy bet odds Amiens Montpellier -0.69 a 3.8 Bastia Dijon -0.49 a 4.5 Plymouth Crystal Palace -0.01 a 3.8 Preston Southampton -0.43 a 2.88 Gillingham Leyton Orient -1.40 a 2.76 Huddersfield Nott m Forest -0.75 a 2.5 Grimsby Chester -1.04 a 3.35 Mansfield Milton Keynes Dons -0.74 a 1.97 Notts County Hereford -0.47 a 3.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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