muppet77 Posted December 31, 2007 Author Share Posted December 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression premiership h a sup bet odds result profit Chelsea Newcastle 1.36 H 1.52 H 0.49 Portsmouth Middlesbrough 1.09 H 1.71 A -1.00 Tottenham Reading 1.02 H 1.54 H 0.51 West Ham Man United -0.09 A 1.54 H -1.00 Wigan Aston Villa -0.47 A 2.44 A 1.37 Man City Liverpool -0.58 A 2.16 D -1.00 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 14 6 20 losses 5 10 15 bets 19 16 35 strike 74% 38% 57% profit 2.40 -1.59 0.81 yield 12.6% -10.0% 2.3% av odds 1.64 2.12 1.83 exp wins 11.6 7.5 19.1 exp losses 7.4 8.5 15.9 chi test 74% 56% 24% wins ahead 2.4 -1.5 0.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 31, 2007 Author Share Posted December 31, 2007 Re: Regression Digression premiership h a sup bet odds Liverpool Wigan 2.13 H 1.25 Fulham Chelsea -0.88 A 1.61 Middlesbrough Everton -0.39 A 2.5 Reading Portsmouth -0.48 A 2.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2008 Author Share Posted January 1, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership h a sup bet odds result profit Fulham Chelsea -0.88 A 1.61 A 0.58 Middlesbrough Everton -0.39 A 2.5 A 1.43 Reading Portsmouth -0.48 A 2.78 A 1.69 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 14 9 23 losses 5 10 15 bets 19 19 38 strike 74% 47% 61% profit 2.40 2.10 4.50 yield 12.6% 11.1% 11.9% av odds 1.64 2.13 1.85 exp wins 11.6 8.9 20.5 exp losses 7.4 10.1 17.5 chi test 74% 3% 58% wins ahead 2.4 0.1 2.5 that does look good. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 10, 2008 Author Share Posted January 10, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:35 yield:+11.9% h a sup bet odds result profit Liverpool Wigan 2.13 H 1.25 D -1.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 10, 2008 Author Share Posted January 10, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:35 yield:+11.9% h a sup bet odds Aston Villa Reading 1.50 H 1.66 Chelsea Tottenham 1.13 H 1.84 Everton Man City 1.00 H 2.28 Man United Newcastle 1.51 H 1.28 West Ham Fulham 1.33 H 1.82 Middlesbrough Liverpool -0.92 A 1.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 12, 2008 Author Share Posted January 12, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:35 yield:+11.9% h a sup bet odds result profit Aston Villa Reading 1.50 H 1.66 H 0.63 Chelsea Tottenham 1.13 H 1.84 H 0.80 Everton Man City 1.00 H 2.28 H 1.22 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 17 9 26 losses 6 10 16 bets 23 19 42 strike 74% 47% 62% profit 4.04 2.10 6.14 yield 17.6% 11.1% 14.6% av odds 1.65 2.13 1.84 exp wins 14.0 8.9 22.9 exp losses 9.0 10.1 19.1 chi test 80% 3% 67% wins ahead 3.0 0.1 3.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 12, 2008 Author Share Posted January 12, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:42 yield:+14.6% ha sup bet odds result profit West Ham Fulham 1.33 H 1.82 H 0.78 Middlesbrough Liverpool -0.92 A 1.75 D -1.00 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 18 9 27 losses 6 11 17 bets 24 20 44 strike 75% 45% 61% profit 4.82 1.10 5.92 yield 20.1% 5.5% 13.5% av odds 1.65 2.11 1.83 exp wins 14.5 9.5 24.0 exp losses 9.5 10.5 20.0 chi test 85% 17% 64% wins ahead 3.5 -0.5 3.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 19, 2008 Author Share Posted January 19, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:44 yield:+13.5% h a sup bet odds result profit Man United Newcastle 1.51 H 1.28 H 0.27 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 19 9 28 losses 6 11 17 bets 25 20 45 strike 76% 45% 62% profit 5.09 1.10 6.19 yield 20.3% 5.5% 13.8% av odds 1.63 2.11 1.82 exp wins 15.3 9.5 24.8 exp losses 9.7 10.5 20.2 chi test 87% 17% 66% wins ahead 3.7 -0.5 3.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 19, 2008 Author Share Posted January 19, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:44 yield:+13.5% h a sup bet odds blackburn middlesborough -0.19 A 5.6 fulham arsenal -0.71 A 1.51 reading man united -0.57 A 1.42 wigan everton -0.58 A 2.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:44 yield:+13.5% h a sup bet odds result profit blackburn middlesborough -0.19 A 5.6 D -1.00 fulham arsenal -0.71 A 1.51 A 0.48 reading man united -0.57 A 1.42 A 0.40 wigan everton -0.58 A 2.48 A 1.41 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 19 12 31 losses 6 12 18 bets 25 24 49 strike 76% 50% 63% profit 5.09 2.39 7.48 yield 20.3% 10.0% 15.3% av odds 1.63 2.10 1.83 exp wins 15.3 11.4 26.7 exp losses 9.7 12.6 22.3 chi test 87% 18% 78% wins ahead 3.7 0.6 4.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 27, 2008 Author Share Posted January 27, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:49 yield:+15% h a sup bet odds arsenal newcastle 1.78 H 1.32 bolton fulham 1.33 H 2 chelsea reading 1.94 H 1.27 everton tottenham 1.21 H 2.52 west ham liverpool -0.66 A 2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 1, 2008 Author Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:49 yield:+15% h a sup bet odds result profit arsenal newcastle 1.78 H 1.32 H 0.30 bolton fulham 1.33 H 2 D -1.00 chelsea reading 1.94 H 1.27 H 0.26 everton tottenham 1.21 H 2.52 D -1.00 west ham liverpool -0.66 A 2.02 H -1.00 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 21 12 33 losses 8 13 21 bets 29 25 54 strike 72% 48% 61% profit 3.65 1.39 5.04 yield 12.6% 5.6% 9.3% av odds 1.63 2.10 1.82 exp wins 17.7 11.9 29.7 exp losses 11.3 13.1 24.3 chi test 79% 2% 64% wins ahead 3.3 0.1 3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 1, 2008 Author Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:54 yield:+9% h a sup bet odds blackburn everton -0.15 A 3.25 man city arsenal -0.50 A 1.91 portsmouth chelsea -0.83 A 1.78 tottenham man united -0.15 A 1.91 wigan west ham -0.32 A 2.74 fulham aston villa -0.39 A 2.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:54 yield:+9% h a sup bet odds result profit blackburn everton -0.15 A 3.25 D -1.00 man city arsenal -0.50 A 1.91 A 0.86 portsmouth chelsea -0.83 A 1.78 D -1.00 tottenham man united -0.15 A 1.91 D -1.00 wigan west ham -0.32 A 2.74 H -1.00 fulham aston villa -0.39 A 2.34 H -1.00 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 21 13 34 losses 8 18 26 bets 29 31 60 strike 72% 42% 57% profit 3.65 -2.74 0.90 yield 12.6% -8.8% 1.5% av odds 1.63 2.12 1.85 exp wins 17.7 14.6 32.4 exp losses 11.3 16.4 27.6 chi test 79% 44% 33% wins ahead 3.3 -1.6 1.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:54 yield:+9% h a sup bet odds bolton portsmouth -0.09 A 3.05 aston villa newcastle 1.24 H 1.96 everton reading 1.81 H 1.59 middlesbrough fulham 1.05 H 1.96 man united man city 1.24 H 1.32 arsenal blackburn 0.89 H 1.37 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 12, 2008 Author Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:60 yield:+1.5% h a sup bet odds result profit bolton portsmouth -0.09 A 3.05 A 1.95 aston villa newcastle 1.24 H 1.96 H 0.91 everton reading 1.81 H 1.59 H 0.56 middlesbrough fulham 1.05 H 1.96 H 0.91 man united man city 1.24 H 1.32 A -1.00 arsenal blackburn 0.89 H 1.37 H 0.35 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 25 14 39 losses 9 18 27 bets 34 32 66 strike 74% 44% 59% profit 5.38 -0.80 4.59 yield 15.8% -2.5% 7.0% av odds 1.63 2.14 1.84 exp wins 20.9 15.0 35.8 exp losses 13.1 17.0 30.2 chi test 85% 27% 56% wins ahead 4.1 -1.0 3.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:66 yield:+7% h a sup bet odds liverpool middlesbrough 1.27 H 1.43 fulham west ham -0.25 A 2.92 newcastle man united -0.51 A 1.52 reading aston villa -0.63 A 2.4 blackburn bolton 0.80 H 1.85 man city everton -0.17 A 3.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 24, 2008 Author Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Regression Digression premiership. bets:66 yield:+7% h a sup bet odds result profit liverpool middlesbrough 1.27 H 1.43 H 0.41 fulham west ham -0.25 A 2.92 A 1.82 newcastle man united -0.51 A 1.52 A 0.49 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 26 16 42 losses 9 18 27 bets 35 34 69 strike 74% 47% 61% profit 5.79 1.52 7.31 yield 16.5% 4.5% 10.6% av odds 1.62 2.13 1.84 exp wins 21.6 16.0 37.5 exp losses 13.4 18.0 31.5 chi test 88% 1% 72% wins ahead 4.4 0.0 4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 24, 2008 Author Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:69 yield:+10% h a sup bet odds result profit reading aston villa -0.63 A 2.4 A 1.33 blackburn bolton 0.80 H 1.85 H 0.81 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 27 17 44 losses 9 18 27 bets 36 35 71 strike 75% 49% 62% profit 6.60 2.85 9.45 yield 18.3% 8.1% 13.3% av odds 1.63 2.14 1.84 exp wins 22.1 16.4 38.5 exp losses 13.9 18.6 32.5 chi test 91% 17% 81% wins ahead 4.9 0.6 5.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:71 yield:+13% Excellent results so far this weekend muppet for your system :clap Good luck for tomorrow's Everton game :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 26, 2008 Author Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:71 yield:+13% FULLHOUSE! :nana thanks Wumpking, you seem to be the first interested punter! h a sup bet odds result profit man city everton -0.17 A 3.2 A 2.09 REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 27 18 45 losses 9 18 27 bets 36 36 72 strike 75% 50% 63% profit 6.60 4.94 11.54 yield 18.3% 13.7% 16.0% av odds 1.63 2.16 1.86 exp wins 22.1 16.7 38.8 exp losses 13.9 19.3 33.2 chi test 91% 34% 86% wins ahead 4.9 1.3 6.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puntyboy Posted February 26, 2008 Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:71 yield:+13% What a result for the weekend "Muppet"! Top Class...:clap:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 26, 2008 Author Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:72 yield:+16% cheers mate, much appreciated. it is going well isn't it?! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 26, 2008 Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:71 yield:+13% FULLHOUSE! :nana thanks Wumpking, you seem to be the first interested punter! Nice one muppet, great system picks to get the 6 out of 6 :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap. I was certainly cheering on Everton last night for you even though I don't follow football (wrong shaped ball :lol). Although I am not really interested in football, I am interested in systematic betting and leaning from the work of others. Your system, like a number of other threads on this site, seem very innovative. Hope you made a decent profit on the weekend. Keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:72 yield:+16% ha sup bet odds man city wigan 1.43 H 1.92 middlesbrough reading 1.13 H 1.96 fulham man united -0.57 A 1.36 newcastle blackburn -0.19 A 2.88 west ham chelsea -0.47 A 1.95 bolton liverpool -0.67 A 1.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:72 yield:+16% Good luck for the weekend's selections :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:72 yield:+16% h a sup bet odds result profit man city wigan 1.43 H 1.92 D -1.00 middlesbrough reading 1.13 H 1.96 A -1.00 fulham man united -0.57 A 1.36 A 0.34 newcastle blackburn -0.19 A 2.88 A 1.79 west ham chelsea -0.47 A 1.95 A 0.90 bolton liverpool -0.67 A 1.84 A 0.80 the yields increase and the chi value goes up. sweet. REGRESSION PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 27 22 49 losses 11 18 29 bets 38 40 78 strike 71% 55% 63% profit 4.60 8.77 13.37 yield 12.1% 21.9% 17.1% av odds 1.64 2.12 1.86 exp wins 23.1 18.8 42.0 exp losses 14.9 21.2 36.0 chi test 80% 68% 89% wins ahead 3.9 3.2 7.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:78 yield:+17% Hi muppet77, Congratulations on an very interesting thread. One suggestion I might have here. Have you tried to split the supremacy numbers that your model produces into ranges (maybe in percentiles/deciles), then calculate the percentages of H-D-A that fall into each range, and then plot the three graphs. You'd then calculate the regression curves to aproximate the results. This way you'd get direct probabilities (=1/odds) for the H-D-A outomes and then compare your odds with bookie's odds. It would be very interesting to see what happens, if you set the cuttoff for accepting a value bet-for example: if bookie's odds are 5% better than yours, then 10%, 15%,...and calculate yield for all these cutoffs. I believe that an accurate model should show higher yield as you increase the cutoffs. I don't understand why you stopped betting on the world leagues only because there were a couple of loosing weekends. I don't believe that there were enough bets to prove anything. I'm very curious what would have happned if you continued...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 4, 2008 Author Share Posted March 4, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:78 yield:+17% the world leagues were doing poorly - it wasn't just a few bad results. anyhow, the system is modelled on the premiership and does not really fit other leagues well. i have tried generating fair match prices using the method that you describe without much success. i found that it is difficult to backtest this sort of thing, and the cutoffs i found are working superbly. out of interest, if you take ALL the games this season that the model has produced, (ie ones in the early months of the season that i have not proofed here but i have backtested added to the ones that i have prroofed) that were NOT included in the building of the model, these are the figures as a whole: season ALL HOME AWAY wins 75 44 31 losses 44 16 28 bets 119 60 59 strike 63% 73% 53% profit 23.71 12.45 11.26 yield 20% 21% 19% av odds 1.90 1.67 2.20 exp wins 62.8 36.0 26.8 exp losses 56.2 24.0 32.2 chi test 98% 96% wins ahead 12.2 8.0 4.2 so fairly consistent yields home and away. the chi value looks promising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 4, 2008 Author Share Posted March 4, 2008 Re: Regression Digression Premiership. bets:78 yield:+17% post 216 data refers to premiership matches only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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