Gingertipster Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips No more bets today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips Actually better put more on Littlemisssunshine as fav a non runner. Extra Bet. 2:40 Newbury £15 each way @ 6/1 (generally) or bigger Littlemisssunshine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips Thought I had better post this before the price goes. 2:45 Newbury £133 @ 2.35/1 Classic Punch I make him 6/4 fav (40%) chance. I make the dog Papal Bull 11/4 3rd fav! More analysis / bets later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 3:20 Newbury £60 @ 9/2 (Corals) Wake Up Maggie £18 @ 4.4/1 Silver Touch £13 @ 7/1 Stronghold 4:25 Newbury £40 @ 6.8/1 Mullien £13 @ 3.6/1 Rinterval Analysis to come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 2:45 This race is more about temperament and consistency than ability. Papal Bull may be the best horse in the race but can he be relied on? Only one good run this season and then almost throwing the race away. Shahin was only 2 ½ lengths behind the paper favourite last time and possibly has more improvement in him. He made the running at Newmarket but may not get his own way in front today with the selection also a pace horse. Shahin himself looks a little wayward the visor is on for the second time and is fragile. Classic Punch on the other hand seems to have all the qualities of his half brother, a reliable battler and also improving rapidly. If the rains come Papal Bull disappointed on his only run on a soft surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 3:20 Newbury Red Evie is out of form and needs further. Caradak is possible but will not want any rain. Last years winner Welsh Emporer does not seem in the same form and needs to dominate. He has other pace horses to contend with though they mostly need a sound surface and might come out if it rains (Dubais Touch, Caradak, Beckermett, and possibly Per Incanto). Two improving in form fillies are Wake Up Maggie and Silver Touch. The latter an excellant 3rd in France last time acts on any going. Wake Up Maggie is a similar type (held up for a late run). Impressed me at Goodwood. She disappointed on a soft surface in Ireland but was 2nd to Jeremy last season on it. The reason I make Chris Walls horse the main bet is the trainer is in better form. Percentage wise Stronghold comes out the very best value on my tissue but may not be fit for his belated reappearance. He also may not want it too soft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 2:45 Newbury Those who ran in the 2:10 Ascot on 27th July may be fighting out the finish here (6f good-soft). Rinterval 4th, Acquilifer 6th and Mullein 7th. Obviously Rinterval deserves to be favourite and looks value at around 7/2. All three trainers usually do better 2nd time out and so to do those making their debuts today. With the exception of Peter Chapple-Hyms Au Pair who judging by the exchanges is not fancied! Mullein is prefered as the main bet because he is double the price for being beaten only 1 ½ lengths. Hopefully he will be a Great Mullein (Gardeners Joke). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 22, 2007 Author Share Posted August 22, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 2:00 York £25 each way @ 11/1 Nacho Libre If I were sure there would be a descent pace here Swiss Franc would be the main bet. The others have to improve a fair bit, Sir Gerry possibly has most improvement in him but like the favourite likes to come from the rear. Nacho Libre has also been held up but encouragingly is bred for, and has enough speed for 5 furlongs. He may be more suited by a slowly run race than the other two. 2:35 York £15 @ 4/1 Purple Moon £25 @ 10.5/1 Honalulu £22 @ 18/1 Group Captain £4 @ 18.5/1 Hitchcock £3 @ 28/1 Wing Collar £3 @ 22/1 Strategic Mount Purple Moon was impressive at Goodwood and if he is as good with a bit of cut in the ground as he is on top-of-the-ground will be very difficult to beat. Scriptwriter looks a little temperamental, high head carriage, possibly best after at least a month off. But the Godolphin horse is improving. Honolulu needs to improve considerably and may well be capable of doing so, lightly raced 3 year old, bred to do better at this trip. Tranquil Tiger looks over bet, punters hoping Henry can have another big win. Group Captain looks the best value of all. Excellent record in handicaps, not at best earlier in the season when the trainer was out of form. Better than ever last time, stays trip, acts on the ground. Wing Collar is a lively outsider, possibly does not have the improvement in him the others do but has a great record at York. Strategic Mount has rightly been pushed out in the betting but not that far. The in form Paul Coles horse is probably better on a sound surface, however, the times were not that slow yesterday and if no more rain his price now is worth taking. Hitchcock’s chance seems a little better than his price indicates being a second string. After a good run over 12 furlongs at Royal Ascot did not have the speed for the 9f John Smiths Cup. May do better at todays trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 22, 2007 Author Share Posted August 22, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 3:10 YORK £33 @ 14/1 (Stan James NRNB) Kingsgate Native Analysis to come when I know other bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 22, 2007 Author Share Posted August 22, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips St Leger HONOLULU looks a cracking value bet at 9/1 with the Tote. This is a lightly raced, rapidly improving 3 year old, from the Ballydoyle team. Second to Purple Moon today only getting 2lbs from 4 year old Purple Moon. That’s 10lbs less than weight for age. Proven at the trip, on good and soft going. Soldier Of Fortune is likely to be saved for elsewhere with more than one stable companion good enough to win / run well in the Leger. Yellowstone also unlikely to run (doubtful stayer), Mahler ran a fine trial over an inadequate trip in the Voltigeur where Lucarno enhanced his prospects. I am a fan of John Gosdens big horse, especially for next year. However, he can take a pull and is not sure to get the trip. Aqaleem could be a danger to all if turning up, for some reason connections are not keen. He seems to have most of the attributes one looks for in a Leger horse. May be they are worried he could sweat up badly and lose the race in the parade. Aqaleem was awash at Epsom and Goodwood though it does not seem to effect his running so far. If it is not on the firm side Honolulu should run well. Even at this stage I make him a 5/1 chance, 9/1 is massive. Suggest £40 @ 9/1 Tote HONOLULU Already put this up in ante post but will put it here aswell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 22, 2007 Author Share Posted August 22, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 3:10 York Now Wups is not around anymore thought I would give an assessment of all the runners. 6.2% 15/1 Amadeus Wolf: Excellent reappearance but well below form in two runs since (stable in poor form both times). Probably equally effective 5 / 6f. 0.05% 2000/1Celtic Mill: Exposed as a listed / group 3 horse, ran poorly last time, often front runner. 24% 100/30 Dandy Man: Good 4th in July Cup, is better at 5f. May have more improvement in him. Best on a sound surface so would not want any rain. Races prominently. 3.25% 28/1 Desert Lord: Has a good chance on last years form but nowhere near that this season. Often front runner. 0.125% 800/1Green Manalishi: Exposed as listed / group 3 horse. Usually held up. 7.25% 13/1 Magnus: Best effort in King Stand, possibly not over that run in Jubilee. Australian sprinters tend to be at their best on their first run in Britain. 11.75% 15/2 Moorhouse Lad: Rapid improver, seemed no fluke in latest win at Goodwood. Possibly best on sharp track (York is sharp but not as much as Goodwood). 10% 9/1 Red Clubs: Excellent placed efforts in July Cup and Jubilee, needs to put up a personal best but that’s quite possible. Stable in form. Probably equally effective at 5 and 6f on soft and firm. Races prominently / tracks pace. 10% 9/1 Reverance: Has the best form but well below that this season. His light campaign suggests some sought of injury. Most of best form on an easy surface. Held up / tracks pace. 0.125% 800/1 The Tatling: Old 5f specialist, at his best on a sound surface. Held up / dropped out. On downgrade. 9% 10/1 Hoh Mike: Improving 3 year old, needs a strongly run race as usually dropped out. Tends to only do just enough so may be better than his form suggests. Ran poorly on very soft going penultimate start. 1.5% 66/1 Wi Dud: Is only small and is yet to improve this season, needs to. Races prominently / tracks pace. 0.05% 2000/1 Meccas Mate: Outclassed. 2.2% 40/1 Sierra Vista: Seems to have lost his form recently after an excellent start to the season when showing improved form. Still needs personal best. Usually a front runner. 1.5% 66/1 Beauty Is Truth: Needs to improve and being a very small filly that looks unlikely. Enticing: Non-Runner. 1.5% 66/1 Theann: Seemed to show improved form last time but that was on very soft ground at 6f. Unlikely to have the speed for this and needs to improve again. 11.5% 15/2 Kingsgate Native: This 2 year old maiden was probably the best horse on both his starts. Green at Royal Ascot and raced away from the winner at Goodwood. Those two runs were in quite big fields and may be able to make another big step up, sort to keep improving and paddock pick at Goodwood. Had Captain Gerrard well beaten (good winner at York since). The huge 2 year old allowance gives him a good chance. Raced on good and good-firm. The percentages are the percentage chance I believe each horse has of winning (on good going) with the equivalent price. e.g. 6.2% = 15/1 (well almost 6.25% equals 15/1). 15/1 is the price I am looking to beat to back Amadeus Wolf. Of course the sum of all prcentages add up to 100%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips More bets in 3:10 York Already advised £33 @ 14/1 Kingsgate Native £25 @ 8.4/1 Moorhouse Lad £8 @ 10/1 Red Clubs £5 @ 17/1 Amadeus Wolf £2 @ 41/1 Desert Lord £2 @ 69/1 Sierra Vista See above for analysis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 1:35 York £25 @ 10.5/1 Philario £25 @ 2.85/1 Dark Angel £10 @ 7/1 ? Johar Jamal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips Analysis 1:35 York Philario was 3/4 length 2nd to subsequant Richmond 2nd Fat Boy. Surely only Dark Angel has better form. Have had a tip from a Barry Hills stable lad that Dark Angel is A1 and.... . Saw Johar Jamal at Goodwood, impressed in stature and in the race though poor stable form makes him just a saver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips Was going to put a bet up for the 2:05 but the price has gone so won't. Might come back later if things change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
softie Posted August 23, 2007 Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips Great call with Kingsgate Native, Ginger - secured a nice profit on the day with that one alone:nana:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 1:20 Newbury £45 @ 7/1 Fathsta £20 @ 6.6/1 Chatham Islands £15 @ 14/1 Regal Rhythm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted August 24, 2007 Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips :clap:clap nice work mate. Do you have a profit loss calculator about just to see how you are doing ?? I am a fan of the "dutching" / Split bet approach :ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeefOfYorkshire Posted August 24, 2007 Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips I get the profit and loss to -£114.95, Is that right ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 1:20 Newbury Analysis Fathsta seemed to win easily at Chester (6f g-f) and if that form can be relied on. Do not like taking Chester form at face value but even so looks over priced here. Chatham Islands is improving and won despite pulling quite hard. One possible negative is that she does like to be up there with the pace and there are a number of other pace horses in the race. Regal Rhythm is not sure to stay the trip but the likely fast pace may help her to settle better. At a price worth taking a chance on, she still has potential. 2:50 Newbury Likely favourite Fringe is worth taking on as her best form is in slowly run races on very soft going and might want further than todays trip to be at her best. By In The Wings an influence of both stamina and or a preference to soft going. Trouble is what is going to beat her? Teodora Adivina has yet to run on a sound surface but is by Fantastic Light. Beaten at odds on last time, may not have stayed 12f or acted on the all weather or something amiss (April). Given time to recover, she is worth the risk at around 13/2. Kahara is impeccably bred but for further. Her class could well see her through in this grade, merits a saver. £40 @ 6.6/1 Teodora Adivina £20 @ 2.05/1 Kahara 12:50 Newbury Brendon Powell does not have first time out 2 year old winners or any 2 year old winner. But the run of Morestead was encouraging at Ascot that he must be the bet. Morestead is sure to come on a bundle for the run and with the stable in tremendous form. We’Re Delighted merits a saver as Channons also tend to find plenty for a run. £57 @ 4.4/1 Morestead £18 @ 7/2 ? We’Re Delighted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips I get the profit and loss to -£114.95' date=' Is that right ?[/quote'] Do not think so Beefy, sorry have not done a profit / loss will do so when I have more time. Going to Newbury today then Goodwood Sat and Sun. Probably do it Monday if not then tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted August 24, 2007 Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips :clap:clap nice work mate. Do you have a profit loss calculator about just to see how you are doing ?? I am a fan of the "dutching" / Split bet approach :ok:ok After todays results: Total Staked = 1360.00pts Total Returned = 1147.05pts Profit / Loss = -212.95pts (also 40pts staked on Honolulu which is not included) Good luck for tomorrow mate. A few more of those 14/1 winners and you'll be profit in no time:ok Keep going buddy. Like Frisky, I like the dutching approach you adopt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 3:10 Goodwood £45 @ 7.4/1 Blue Ksar £10 @ 20/1 Selinka £10 @ 6/1 (WHills) Dunelight 2:05 Goodwood £75 @ 7/2 (Bet Fred) Samuel £5 @ 17.5/1 Land 'N' Stars £3 @ 33/1 Souvenance 4:50 Goodwood £100 @ 1.8/1 Gilded Youth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 3:10 Goodwood Progressive Cesare undoubtedly has the best chance of winning but is over bet at current prices. Has a penalty and it is usually difficult to come from the back in a mile race at Goodwood in anything but a strongly run race. If Blue Ksar and Dunelight do not take each other on they will give the favourite plenty to do. Dunelight loves Goodwood, has the plum draw, will be suited by any drying ground, has 7f speed he can wind up from the front. In fact why didn't I make Clive Cox's horse the main bet? He needs to improve. Blue Ksar was unfortunate at Epsom (got caught up in rivals discarded visor and could not take up usual prominent position). Is expected to beat the winner that day Blythe Knight particularly with J J Quinn in poor form. It is possible the Godolphin horse is best on an easy surface but his form on good-firm is not far behind which suggests he acts on it (coincidence). Selinka is best at a mile and did not have the speed for Goodwoods 7f last time. Progressive form prior to that and although a hold up horse the 20/1 makes her worth the bet. Stable could be in better form though. Echelon may not be suited by the track, she takes a long time to hit full stride. 2:05 Goodwood With negatives about all his rivals Samuel must be the bet, have taken 4.2/1 but 7/2 is still very good value (take anything better than 5/2). Still a maiden but improved markedly for a step up in trip last time. Favourite Ivy Creek is the obvious danger but is far from certain to act on drying ground. Below form last time on good-firm and improvement has come on an easy surface since an injury. Should if anything be suited by the step up in trip. Something which may not be the case for Big Robert, by a 1m to 1m2f horse out of a 1m2f horse who was by a miler. Rayhani and Hard Top (below form in Leger) have stamina to prove. Tungston Strike is out of form from an out of form yard though could get a soft lead. Secret Tune was well below his Queens Vase (2m) form last time out (12f), may want more of a test of stamina. Land 'N' Stars gave signs of a return to form last time out in the Geoff Freer (muddling form) and could surprise. Probably not good enough anyway. Souvenance would be good enough but does not look in good enough form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 4:50 Goodwood Gilded Youth probably has form to win an average race like this. It is just a matter of what the unraced horses are capable of. And is Gilded Youth himself fit after a 95 day absence. The Candy yard is going well now so he has plenty of in form horses to judge him against. 7/4 or above it is worth the risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips Ante-post 1000 GUINEES £25 @16/1 (Bet Fred, Corals, Ladbrokes amongst others) Sense Of Joy Her easy 5 length debut win was in such a fast time that she must stand a much greater than 6% chance. May well win todays Prestige by a wide margin and half in price. Certain to stay a mile if not the Oaks trip, by Dansili and a half sister to Day Flight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips Well no bets tonight as the liquidity on betfair is poor. Working to 130 or even 140%. Saturday was poor for me though was not helped by some poor jockeyship. 1. What were they doing allowing Darryl Holland so much rope on proven stayer Tungston Strike? My tip Samuel was the moral winner (2nd) but moral winners are no good. 2. What was Frankie doing on Blue Ksar 3 out. The horse is running over 8 furlongs, is proven at 10 furlongs, has a liking for being infront (usually front runner / races prominently). So why not go for home 3 out? Not sit there motionless and wait for specialist milers to do you for a turn of foot. Now I aint saying it definately would have won but it would have got a lot closer and possibly.... 3. Why did I back that Gilded Youth when there were so many ifs about the race? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 26, 2007 Author Share Posted August 26, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 4:30 Goodwood £24 @ 20/1 Waterside £24 @ 14/1 Jedburgh £14 @ 21/1 Ivory Lace £14 @ 5/1 King Of Argos £14 @ 4.8/1 Vitznau 3:20 Goodwood £40 @ 7/1 Cliche £20 @ 10.5/1 Flying Clarets £20 @ 100/30 Measured Tempo 5:05 Goodwood £40 @ 7/1 Dauberval £15 @ 22/1 Shadow Fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 26, 2007 Author Share Posted August 26, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips 4:30 Been waiting for Waterside to come back to 7f, ain't been getting home at 1m. Jedburgh put up his best performance of the season last time and is thrown in on 06 form, will need luck in running from that draw. Ivory Lace is progressive and seems always under estimated by bookies / punters due to unfashionable breeding. King Of argos and Vitznau have improvment in them. 3:20 Goodwood Cliche has the breeding to improve at the trip, Flying Clarets may get the run of the race from the front. Wanted to put up Measured Tempo as the main bet but as she looks a little temperamental I will see her in the paddock first. My first ante-post bet for the oaks, if I was right then she should win this. Am scared of Trenchtown but is now too short so can not advise wager. 5:05 Saw Dauberval at Salisbury, impressed me there and is worth taking the chance with ground as is by Noverre. Shadows Fall is from an in form yard who could improve greatly (needs to). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted August 27, 2007 Author Share Posted August 27, 2007 Re: Gingertipsters Tips The Story So Far Day 1 Day 1 Aug 15th 2:30 Salisbury House £33 @ 8/1 Non Runner Redsensor £17 @ 9/4 2nd £17 loss 3:00 Salisbury Mizooka £40 @ 8/1 1st Safari Sunup £15 @ 9/1 2nd Menadha £10 @ 6.2/1 £295 Profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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