Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

[saintg1]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

Not at all sure about bloody England, so will take a bit of insurance. 1st scoring play England penalty @ 13/8 at 8pts Much keener on the Argie handicap. Argies will run their full bench and in the hope a couple of subs go over later on... BUY Argie/Namibia shirts @ 94 at 1.5pts

I agree with you pie chucker, Argentina should cover the spread comfortably against Namibia. I am also inclined to take a punt with Samoa at +15, if for no other reason than the fact the Poms have been dreadful this tournament. 15 pts isn't much, so a spot of insurance is sensible. However, a Samoan upset wouldnt surprise. Pardon my ignorance, but what exactly is the buy shirts bet all about?

[saintg1]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

Is there value in Sth Africa to win 50+ at $2.60 The line is very close to this margin, what do you guys think??

Mr Chairman, that is a good question. Sth Africa have been impressive this tournament, but they are not a huge scoring team in the mould of a France or NZ (more a rumbler than a thoroughbred). Tonga sprang an upset over Samoa which belies the quality of their player list (they were not expected to do much this torunament). Therefore it is a difficult game to predict viz the spread. I have a suspicion 50 might actually be enough to get Tonga over the line. Interestingly, sportsbet here in Australia is only offering 40.5 pts. Personally, I would take a small stake on Tonga at 50, but there have been more confident bets this tournament. Not sure if that helps...

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Chairman, dodgy. Argies to cover is a better go. Saint, shirts here is a spread bet. I want Argies to score around 9 tries and those scoring them to be full-back (15 on shirt) wings sort of thing. It's not much good if the hooker rumbles over as it only gives me 2. It looks a big ask, but with all subs off the bench you have fresh legs looking to go over towards the end with 17 or 20 on their back. You add up the try-scoring shirt numbers. In this case, Namibia tries slow me down/peg me back... but I'm not too fussed if the tight-head scores.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Also on shirt numbers see post #141 on how 'things can go right', but wrong.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread The line is around 43pts @ 1.91 over here so to score one more try and get odds of 2.6 does look like value in that sense. As to whether SA can win by 50+ I too have doubts about their ability to rack up the points, lots of guys playing their first game of the tourney with something like 11 changes from the England game. Might take a while to click and scoring 8/9 tries to cover this would be a big ask. Can't rule out Tonga getting 10-15 points the way they've been playing.

[bartonbank]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

Mr Chairman, that is a good question. Sth Africa have been impressive this tournament, but they are not a huge scoring team in the mould of a France or NZ (more a rumbler than a thoroughbred). Tonga sprang an upset over Samoa which belies the quality of their player list (they were not expected to do much this torunament). Therefore it is a difficult game to predict viz the spread. I have a suspicion 50 might actually be enough to get Tonga over the line. Interestingly, sportsbet here in Australia is only offering 40.5 pts. Personally, I would take a small stake on Tonga at 50, but there have been more confident bets this tournament. Not sure if that helps...

Wasn't the Samoa result more down to them underperforming, though? I agree it is a 'no play', but would still side with the Saffers, especially as Tonga will have more of an eye on the game against England.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread on the Tonga game, I don't know on the cap it looks fairly accurate if the Tongans play as they have been doing. What we do know is Tonga are possibly the most ill disciplined side in the tournament finishing the Samoa game with 13 men and the Boks can also be quite dirty at times. This makes 1/2 for there to be a yellow card on Paddy Power worth taking! Pie Chucker may not be confident but I don't see England having trouble with Samoa today, the difference in organization and discipline is too much and wilkinson should kick England to a win and probably a cover as the Samoans tend to give up late on. Argentina might be a decent shout but they didn't exactly run them in against Georgia although if Namibia really are sending out a second string that could turn into a rout.

[Posh Punter]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Came on here to sya about first score in the England game being an England penalty and Pie Chucker beat me to it. Reasoning. Engand have not had a great start to the tournament and will need to beat Samoa. With this in mind they go back to what is the strength of their game, which is kicking and will take any early points on offer, and as the Samoans do get penalised a lot and Johnny back in the side this looks the obvious choice. Now guess what will happen, the side receiving the ball will play nice flowing rugby, with excellent ball handling skills and dummies galore to score a try straight from kick off.:sad

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread 30-25. SA fall a bit short of the handicap :rollin Don't know what I'm laughing about. No balls to go Tonga on the 50 'cap.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread 3 yellow cards in the Tonga v SA game :lol, England and Argentina both cover. That puts me 7-3, which is a good recovery from an 0-2 start! Tomorrow money is going on NZ as Scotland have announced they'll be fielding a second string side. However, with the game being at Murrayfield and Scotland being the sort fo side who won't give up like Italy did and can defend tenaciously I think an almost 50pt start is good. Chris Paterson plays so he'll have a good chance of kicking any pens Scotland get which could nudge the total up too high even for the ABs. I'll wait for tomorrow to see if they drift any further though.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Nice going 2hcb. How did the Argies shirt numbers get settled in the end pie-chucker looked like a few forwards getting the scores again but still plenty of tries in total? Two bets for Sunday, both relying on the Southern Hemisphere boys to run the tries in: 5pts Aus (-46) to beat Fiji @ 10/11 (Paddy Power) Australia have named a strong side for this game which the Fijians are just hoping to get out of the way. Latham, Giteau, Tuqiri, Gregan and Palu all feature providing a strong spine to the team and Fiji have left out their star performers from their opening two games to concentrate on beating Wales. Australia are shaping up really nicely for a crack at the All Blacks, second favourites in my eyes, and will want to keep the progress going, they play such a good combination of structured yet attacking rugby that I don't think Fiji will live with them. They also have the nous in defence to snuff out the threat from Fiji, which I'm not sure Wales will have (I digress...). This backline is full of tries and we'll need about 8 to cover the cap, main danger is Australia taking their foot off the gas but I think they'll want to go out and make a statement here. 5pts NZ (-45) to beat Scotland @ 10/11 (Coral) Scotland have made a huge mistake here by naming a second choice team. They were shaping up quite nicely against the minnows and would have a much better chance of beating Italy I reckon after a crack against the All Blacks on their own patch with their best side. As it is the second stringers have been sent out in an admission of defeat and should get plastered by the ABs who know this is their last chance of a serious game before the quarters. NZ look something like full strength with only Masoe, Thorne and Howlett not being first choice, these guys have played so many tests though it's not going to be a problem. I can see Scotland getting wiped out at the breakdown now they've rested their excellent first choice back row, and as such NZ ought to see plenty of the ball, especially turnovers where they are so dangerous. As above we probably need about 8 tries, but if Carter is kicking well this might be less and NZ are always good for taking the penalties to keep the score ticking over.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread I fancy the All Blacks to trounce Scotland tomorrow. Its their best side v a Scotland 2nd side despite Hadden's protestations to the different. OK, Paterson is playing and some experienced players are returning, but this side has 13 changes to the Romania game and 2 new caps. 2nd string NH sides do not have a good record against 1st choice SH sides. Furthermore, the ABs will undoubtedly be as ruthless as usual especially as they will be using this as a warm up for the QF in Cardiff. The bet for me therefore, is on the spreads with a 5 point buy of New Zealand's supremacy over Scotland @ 47.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Hey Cymro, shirts were settled at 98 so a few points profit for Pie-chucker there :clap. I agree with you on the AB call (see my previous post). Can't decide on the Aus v Fiji game. Best wishes for that :hope.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Chugging along this w/e with a profit of 52. Agree with above that in both games the handicap looks on the low side, particularly Blacks. Won't trot out the reasoning as it seems to me to be out in the open/clear cut! Surprised the bookies take a less certain view of big guns superiority. Richie McCaw, AB skipper, scored 2 tries against Italy and was rested for next game. Bet365 have him odds against to score anytime. Carl Hayman might take time off from teaching the black arts to his Scottish rookie opposite number to go over. 365 have him at 3-1; StanJ's at 7-1 :loon. Hayman came on as sub last game and scored. These two are, of course, forwards. But Kiwis score from all over the place when in the mood. The likes of Howlett on the wing are 1-7 in places - 1-3 at Stans. Australia -45 v Fiji @ 10/11 at 22pts NZ -44 @ evens at 30pts BUY NZ/Scotland points @ 47 at 2pts Try anytime: McCaw @ 6-4 at 8pts Hayman @ 7-1 at 3pts + 153 so far handicaps 9 from 13 :D

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Didnt realise but the Fijis have rested 12 of their best 15 in line for the Wales match next week. The Ozzies if they win the match have a dead match next week against Canada, but they have named 12 of their strongest 15 to start the match. With Matlock out injured. The Ozzied I hope will want this match over inside the first half and will look to claim the bonus point early as possible. I wanted to take the Ozzies -48.5points on betfair (i know this is 4 points higher than other handicaps) but I've decided to take them at the lower handicap of 32.5points at 2/7. Shite odds i know but I've been stung a couple of times with the 40-50point handicaps. Gone for the Ozzies minus 32.5points so here's hoping they can run in plenty of tries early on! Good luck all!

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

BUY NZ/Scotland points @ 47 at 2pts

Could you explain what this means plz?

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

BUY NZ/Scotland points @ 47 at 2pts

Could you explain what this means plz?

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Well the Ozzies just got over the handicap of 32.5points there. With 12 mins left they were a converted try behind the handicap although 2 tries in the last 6 mins put a gloss on the scoreline. Lucky tho to get outta that one. For the afternoon game I've again gone with the lower handicap of -27.5points for NZ against Scotland. I believe the home Murrayfield factor and Patersons ability to kick any penalties will mean that Scotland will score between 9-15 points. There I cant see NZ racking up over 60points to beat the higher handicaps. I can see Scotland putting it upto NZ in the first half before falling down a bit in the 2nd half. This is the Scotland reserves after all. I think NZ to lead at half time by maybe 12-15 points and to run out 35points winners! Good luck everyone!

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

Tomorrow money is going on NZ as Scotland have announced they'll be fielding a second string side. However, with the game being at Murrayfield and Scotland being the sort fo side who won't give up like Italy did and can defend tenaciously I think an almost 50pt start is good. Chris Paterson plays so he'll have a good chance of kicking any pens Scotland get which could nudge the total up too high even for the ABs. I'll wait for tomorrow to see if they drift any further though.

Well I also anticipated Scotland kicking some early penalties and perhaps sneaking a try but NZ weren't in the mood to allow that! Fortunately they were too stubborn to go wide and kept taking scrums and picking and going near the line, the Scots will always defend full heartedly in this situation and just covered the cap! (8-3)

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread :@:wall:sad Really fcuked off after watching those two games. Australia got the amount of points needed but gave away two tries at key moments to keep Fiji interested, second one really soft. Amount of dropped ball by Australia really incredible, until the New Zealand game came on which raised the handling error count to new levels. Never seen NZ make so many mistakes and Scotland were really there for the taking. Carter also missed 5 out of 9 costing us 11 points, never seen him kick that badly before. Another thing which got to me watching these two games was the pissing around at the scrum. In both games the refs wasted so much time applying this stupid "crouch touch pause engage" rule that they knocked about 5 minutes off the game clock. Also, how on earth did NZ get pinged so much at the scrum? Scotland were getting a pasting and the All Blacks (sorry All Greys) had to stop trying in the end to make sure they weren't penalised - absolute fcuking joke. And before I forget (getting my Alex Ferguson book of excuses out), whose fcuking bright idea was it to get the teams to play in almost identical shirts, shorts and socks? What a farce. Trying to look at things a bit more rationally, did we really see the World Champions elect today? If I was France I'd be hoping to have a crack at the ABs in the quarters before they get going, as they look to have a few selection problems behind the scrum.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread -

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread -

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread The Scot v NZ game was such a fustrating a game to watch. Cymro, your post match analysis is spot on. Missed kicks, endless scrums and similar shirts. I also thought the ref was quite harsh on NZ at times. Still can't believe I actually lost on the game (7 x 5 points on the spreads). :@ :wall :@

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread -

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

Jeez' date=' I think you're wrong about [b']Namibia, CK. France beat them 87-10 and scored 13 tries. Now Argies are up against their second team as Namibs are targeting their game against Romania on Wednesday. Think Argies will get the bonus point by half time. And go on.

Fair enough Pie. Personally never considered the Argies a team that could put a team away, even a third tier team. Have always fancied them to put up (and upset) top tier teams on their day but to actually run away with a game no. Having said that, even though they just covered the margin they probably should have covered by more looking at the game. Cheers CK

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread I'm from Ireland and would like to make a comment on the Ireland V Argentina rugby match. Ireland are out to 2.48 on Betfair. Now for a team with the talent of Ireland to be priced that high is surely value? Isnt it? I note however that Ireland have not performed at all this world cup, it has been a major let down. However, for Ireland to lose to both France and Argentina would be an utter failure and I dont think the Irish will allow that. To qualify out of the group Ireland must beat Argentina by 8points or more and score 4 tries. And not let Argentina score 4 or more tries of course. This is a difficult ask but by no means impossible. Argentina are 1.74 for the match but Ireland at 2.48 is massively over priced. If Ireland click like I believe nah hope they will then I think they can beat the Argies, whether or not they get the four tries is the question. I can see Ireland really giving it a hell of a go in the first 20mins however maybe looking to get at least one try if not two as well as getting maybe 10points in front. There is bound to be a large Irish contingent and a good start would build the atmosphere and could drive the team on. To be honest Ireland could equally fail like they have in the last three matches but at 2.48 for the straight win I'm gonna back Ireland. The Argies are in a strange position in that do they go out an try to win the match and dodge the All Blacks in the quarters. If they beat Ireland they are surely into the World Cup semi finals. Or do thery make sure the irish dont get the 4 tries they need and just ensure that they qualify outta the group? Ireland to win at 2.48 is my call anyway! Good luck all!

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Gerrie, your Ireland punt is a fair call/price. Yet Argies have the best defence 'on paper' so far. The only no-try conceding team. Argies will want to avoid NZ and close out this group to ensure that. Agree with Cymro. Maybe France's best pop at the Cup outright is to catch ABs in the quarter-final, cold as it were. Anyway, out with the emoticoms for yesterday. :cowNope, wrong one. What a bloody handicap fiasco. :sad How can we be all right, but zero quids in outcome quite like that. Rely on 'illegal' Internet visual feed as can't get TV here in (rural) Hong Kong. But it wasn't working last night. So up in the middle of the night to follow one of those live text things where it updates every 2 mins. A soul destroying way to 'watch' rugby. McCaw goes over :nanain the first few minutes. Then it was just the scoreboard, the clock, the handicap need, the Carter miscues, the knock-ons, keeping Scots on zero; it came over as bloody dire just reading the thing. Looking ahead to Friday this team (if selected) will be good enough for England, v Tonga. But no further! Sheridan, Chuter, Vickery, Corry, Kay, Moody, Rees, Worsley; Gomersall, Wilkinson, Robinson, Barkley, Hipkiss, Sackey, Lewsey. Bench: Regan, Stevens, Borthwick, Easter, Richards, Flood, Tait

[saintg1]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread I actually don't see Ireland beating Argentina by enough to qualify, or even to beat them at all. Argentina has been the big improver at this tournament and have shown attack, defence and set piece play significantly improved from even the 03 Cup. Ireland, by comparison, have been dreadful. It is interesting to watch the minnows play the more fancied teams. Unfortunately, I haven't kept the stats but it appears that in the majority of cases the dog has covered the spread (Japan against Aust is one exception I can recall). Last night's two shockers illustrate this. I have to agree also with the sentiment on this forum. The stoppages and technical over-refereeing (and the fact the clock keeps running through conversions and penalty attempts) really conspire against the big spreads. Three games of interest for mine will be England v Tonga, Scotland v Italy and Wales v Fiji. There will be (or should be) at least one upset at this Cup (given how the minnows have been playing), and these three games offer a glimmer in this regard. The spreads will be interesting to monitor.

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Italy against Scotland should be an interesting one. Scotland were so so shite against the All Blacks yesterday. Paterson was subbed instead 20mins. He missed 2 penalities could find touch on either, missed a simple enuf drop goal about 25metres out straight in front of the post, from a kick off he putt he ball dead behind the try line resulting in a scrum on the half way line for NZ. Italy the first 20mins against NZ aside have done ok in the World Cup and look seriously overpriced at 2.84 to beat Scotland. They have one of the best if not the best scrums in the world and if Bergamasco brothers, Troncon and Pez can play well then I can see Italy beating Scotland. I've taken the Italians to win and to be honest this isnt an upset. Scotland are useless and offer very very little.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Gerrie, I agree that Ireland and Italy are worth a look at a price above evens. but I'm not sure I'm as confident as you about either. Argentina may suffer for having had two easy games since the French game, but the way Ireland are going they need to pull a big performance out of nowhere, the players are there on paper but most of the main guys seem shot to pieces at the moment. As for Italy, they played their best rugby against NZ and again won't have had a good runout since, they didn't even run the tries in against the minnows either. Also Scotland will be able to put out a team largely unaffected by the NZ result, but the big exception as you say is Paterson who had a shocker. He might be injured also so either way one of their key players could be out. Certainly looks like there is value on Italy though given their recent form against Scotland, it will be interesting to see how much of a handicap Scotland get for this one.