Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Just to let ye know, Eddie O'Sullivan has named his team to play Namibia on Sunday, and he has picked the strongest team possible. 14 of the first choice 15 are playing with only winger Shane Horgan recovering from injury. A lot of papers in Ireland are questionning why Ireland are playing full strength against a minnow. O'Sullivan has stated that the group could come down to points difference between Ireland, France and Argentina. He basically wants to whack Namibia for a big score and then rest more players for the following match against Georgia. The handicap is 58.5points so Ireland look well capable of running in at least 12 tries in this match to be honest. Australia put up 140points in the last World Cup against this crowd, so i'm expecting Ireland to be at least 25 points at half time and to run out in the second half maybe 65-75 point winners

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread argies look STRONG and QUICK

[thebambers]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Heard about the Argies plus 11.5 bet earlier today from a mate. I don't usually follow rugby but will keep an eye on this thread. Lumped £50 on at just under evens so thats a great start to the weekend unless disaster happens in the last 5 mins!! The Ireland game handicap with namibia looks interesting if indeed the Irish coach will be playing his strongest line up. Apart from the gulf in class, is it a fair assumption that the lesser nations lack discipline and are likely to give loads of penalties away? I also heard that many of the teams playing New Zealand will play weakened teams as they dont stand a chance and would prefer to save their players for matches they have a better chance in. I would imagine that their fringe players would probably beat most teams best line ups so if its reserves against reserves I can still see them winning easily. Just need someone to confirm my thought being that I only watch rugby every 4 years!! Thanks chaps :hope

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

I'm on France -23.5. I think the argies have been thoroughly over estimated and France could blitz them on Friday night. Just a hunch though.

stick it in here http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53843 :lol

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread to be fair, France looked awesome in the warmup games and Argentina even managed to lose to Wales! Massively courageous performance from the Pumas and a totally deserved win. France just seemed to crumble under the pressure of the occasion.

[davidmphill]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Yeah strange that. Wales beat the Argies and lose nicely to France. What the fcuk do we make of Wales' chances? Dread to think:unsure

[bartonbank]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread I don't think the Argies played a full strength team against Wales (and the ref gave them nothing), but they had a different gameplan today. They kept it simple and, more importantly, kept their discipline, although I have never like Spreadbury as a ref and he wasn't great here. As far as teams playing a weakened side v the AB's, Italy seem to have named a full strength side.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Neither did France barton. All that was missing for them was Hernandez I think (although admittedly he is their best player). What do people think about Hernandez anyway? I'd be tempted to put Todeschini back in at 10 for his kicking. Hernandez kicked and defended well but they could better use their resources with Corleto on one wing and Hernandez back at 15 if Todeschini comes in.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread I like Italy a lot and expect to see them in the quarters; ie beat Scotland. But I can't see where their points are going to come from v ABs. So suggest a sell of Italy performance on the spread with spin. There are pluses and minuses involved in terms of how performance is scored up, but this should be safe: SELL Italy perf @ 20 at 2 pts.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread should be ok there. if you're gonna lose it certainly won't be by much.

[saintg1]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread The two matches that stood out for me this weekend (incl Monday) were this morning's with Arg +11.5 (sorry for the retrospective tip) and Samoa +33.5 v Scotland. Whilst Samoe never seem to have the depth of talent all the way down their list, the do play with considerable passion and, with usual solid defence, should keep the score respectible against an average Scottish outfit. GL all.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread seeing as Samoa aren't even in Scotland's group, never mind playing them tomorrow I can safely say don't follow that tip.

[saintg1]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread You are absolutely right...sorry about that. F*****g embarrassing to sa the least...was obviously thinking about something else (god knows what). Meant to say Samoa v South Africa. Tip doesn't change, although rationale clearly does. Sth Africa have good form going into the Cup. However, most of the pre-RWC commentary has focussed on the defencive nature and style of play which is expected to dominate, and the influence of referees. This is still worth a look imo, although I would understand if my Samoa v Scotland stuff-up has coloured yr view of my advice.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread A South African 2nd XV beat Samoa 35-8 over the summer and Samoa lost to Harlequins in a warmup. I'd check the lineups before taking that.

[bartonbank]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread OK....Oz v Japan. I agree a one sided game, but not as one sided as Stan James make it out to be. Japan with a 70 point start and even money. Italy only beat them by 24 and Oz aren't THAT superior to italy, are they?

[xxdaxxbombxx]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread OZ vs JAP I would say Australia are definately that much better than Italy (and thats coming from a Kiwi!) Recent Match: ( a lot of the same Jap players are playing)

09/06/2007

Australia A

71 - 10

Japan

Townsville

And thats only Australia A...

[bartonbank]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread I still stick with my Japan pick (it's about value and most other bookies have a handicap less that SJ and odds of 10/11), but I also look forward to Oz playing Italy and a bookie giving the Italians a 46 point start!

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Pool D and the Argie win. This group blown wide open. I think France will beat Ireland and Ireland will beat the Argies, but that's for another day. What is crucial is banging in as many points as possible against the minnows, Namibia and Georgia. You can add 18 or so points to the spread because it will be foot on the gas for 80 minutes. Ireland v Namibia jumps out a bit on Sunday. Have only seen Namibia is 7s where they are best described as nippy and plucky. But I think they'll get blown away by Ireland on this stage. I'd say by 75 or 80 points. Pool A - the England bunch - is rather the opposite kettle of fish. No need for Fancy Dan point scoring, just manage each game knowing it's all about next Saturday. Samoa v South Africa on Sunday. Samoa are no mugs and if they can keep 15 on the pitch throughout (no yellows) and keep going for 80 minutes -- neither of these two things guaranteed -- then they should keep this down to about 25 to the Boks. The problem is here that Boks may want to 'make a statement of intent', after the Kiwi win v Italy. Ireland -63 @ 10/11 at 22 pts Samoa +35 @ 10/11 at 11 pts

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread totally agree with you about Namibia pie chucker. They have recently lost to Kenya and Uganda... Off to watch the Wales match now, not expecting any chance of an upset, we've got too much pace out wide for them I think. I probably won't take it but we should be able to cover -28 if we play properly.

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread I live in Rep Ireland and cant find radio commentary on Wales game anywhere, can anyone post a link to radion commentary please? Not 5live either at i cant get that. Thanks a million

[staffy]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

Doug Howlett to be top try scorer with Betfred at 8's I think is a great bet. May well retire at the end of the world cup and will want to beat the all time All Blacks record. Has a very good strike rate anyway. My only bet of the World cup so far.

3 tries in match 1 and currently joint top of the charts admittedly very early stages. Odds down to 5.0 on Betfair. 6.2 to lay but not much equity.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Scotland should be able to beat -60 against the Portugese. In their build up they lost to semi-pro London Welsh and I think they could struggle with fitness in these warm conditions. The Scots should capitalise with runners like Lamont, Dewey and Paterson aswell as a strong back row.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread ouch horrible start, 0/2 after a gutsy effort from the Portugese to hold off the Scots and an embarrasment of a display from Ireland. 6N teams have all performed pathetically actually, when you compare the way Australia ruthlessly dispatched Japan.

[PAULM03]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread That Irish performance has cheered me up no end after the depression of the abject England performance yesterday.:)

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Paul. Can't see why the Irish performance would have cheered you up (unless you were Namibia punter on handicap). Pretty dire and lucky to get the bonus point (4tries +) It might need Ireland to beat Argies by 25 points just to qualify. 2hcb. hope you enjoyed the Millennium game. The second half at least. gerrie. Try arcrugby.co.nz for radio commentary outside UK. My Sunday bets panned out exactly the opposite of what I thought :spank. Pie = Highly experienced, settled Ireland cruising up through the gears to get much need Group D points; SA going nice and easy. Actuality = Ireland misfiring like an old Atco lawnmower; SA putting all elements of their game through the paces and racking up points. Argies/Georgia is 47 points tomorrow. 2/2 so far on Handicaps which is crap a) because you hope to collar bookies early in a RWC and b) because I'm only picking (obviously) the games where I think the spread is around 10 pts wrong.

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread I think after Irelands performance yesterday you'd have to question whether they can beat the 48.5points handicap with Georgia. My guess would be definitely no. Ireland didnt have the skill, pace, guile that SA or OZ or NZ have. They just battered up the centre. To cover big handicaps I'd only go with the big three southern hemisphere teams. The rest just cant be trusted.

[gerrie26681]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Cant see the Argies beating the handicap tomorrow nite either at 47.5points against Georgia for same reasons as above. Plus Fridays game will have taken a hell of a lot outta the Argies. Few changes would be my guess also. I'd reckon the Argies will win this one by maybe 25-35 points.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

2hcb. hope you enjoyed the Millennium game. The second half at least. :spank. Pie = Highly experienced, settled Ireland cruising up through the gears to get much need Group D points; SA going nice and easy. Actuality = Ireland misfiring like an old Atco lawnmower; SA putting all elements of their game through the paces and racking up points.

We played well for 20mins, luckily we took our chances during that purple patch and got 5 tries on the board. Otherwise we were poor. It wasn't at the millenium stadium btw, but fortunately the Australia game will be! Namibia had 100 put on them by an experimental SA side prior to this. The Irish must be very worried. Here's the Argie side for tomorrow

Argentina: Corleto, Borges, Tiesi, Contepomi, Aramburu, Hernandez, Pichot (capt), Leguizamon, Lobbe, Duran, Albacete, Kairelis, Bonorino, Ledesma, Ayerza. Replacements: Basualdo, Jalil, Lozada, Schusterman, Miranda, Todeschini, Miras

Not a weak side, but not full strenght either, not sure there's enough firepower out in the backs to cover the cap...They can't rely on up and unders again can they!!

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Haven't enjoyed the first round of games in this WC from a betting perspective, with France now having to do things the hard way and only 1 try coming from my 5 top tryscorer picks :wall. Not panicking just yet but will need to find a few surprises to make up the money that might be lost on the antepost bets. The Argentina - Georgia game is one I like the look of. I think Argentina will struggle to beat the 46 points start given to them by Corals (10/11) for a few reasons. Firstly I don't think they are the type of team to go out and blow a side away, sure they will run in a few tries but if Georgia get say 10-15 points (not forgetting they scored 19 against SA in the last World Cup) then Argentina will have to score 56-61 pts or about 8-9 tries. I like Corleto and Hernandez as attacking runners but otherwise the threat is limited. As for Georgia, I feel they have a lot going for them. They played really well vs SA in the last world cup, smashing them about on occasions and looked really physical - important against Argentina - and enthusiastic. That was in Australia also whereas now they are in France where 27 of their 30 man squad play club rugby (14 of starting XV), the lowest capped player in their squad has 9 caps so all reasonably experienced for what it's worth. Further research shows that they have beaten Namibia, Romania and Portugal recently and are ranked above Japan in the IRB World Rankings, so perhaps they deserve a bit more credit/recognition than they are getting. Given Argentina's short turnaround and the euphoria that came with their win on Friday, I feel they will have a lot of ground to make up on the handicap, and may just settle for reaching a bonus point (which, let's not forget, is going to be a big issue in this group, France scraped one after all on Friday which could be crucial). I expect there to be a lot of home support in Georgia's favour also with Argentina unlikely to be flavour of the month. 10pts Georgia (+46) to beat Argentina @ 10/11 (Corals)

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread good analysis there Cymro, I'm finding it hard to disagree with any of that. Georgia are a big tough side and shouldn't back down.