Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

[DAC]

This will be the first post in a small series: Top Tryscorer: The winner of this is only and I mean only going to come from the KeeWee Squad. New Zealand have to play Romania in their group which will be a veritable cricket score and then they have to play the lowly Portugese - which I fully expect to be a new world record score. Joe Rockococo speaks for himself at 7/1 - the big man will defiantely be in the running for this, the only thing that worries me slightly is that he may be rested for one of the games against the minnows. I Toeava is a massive 100/1 - I'm thinking Henry will play this underconfident forward in both the games against the minnows and since the AB's certainly won't have to spin the ball against these teams he certainly is in with a good shout of getting at least a brace in each of the games. N Evans - More great value at 50/1 - He played very well against the Saffas last week and again I think he'll feature a lot in the group games but be relegated to a bench spot come the QF's and onwards BUT he's a great player in the making and could force his way into the first XV.

[2hcb]

Re: My Rugby World Cup Tips.... Rico Gear @ 9/1 might be worth a go, he's likely to play against the minnows and is one of thos guys who always seems to end up on the end of all the moves and get over the line. Tbh though someone somewhere will score 6 tries in a game or somehting against the minnows and take the title, could be anyone from the big teams really. On a side issue, what is going on with the Dragons takeover DAC, was hoping you'd have a stronger squad next season (sorry for stealing Gough!).

[DAC]

Re: My Rugby World Cup Tips.... Hello mate, Take over is on hold at the moment, we've been told a new announcement will be made in 8 weeks.... Goughy will be missed you barstwards but I can't blame him for going - thanks for Mustoe though. You just keep giving us your spare players and we'll train them up for you. Scotland are the second seeds in the KeeWee group, I just can't see a top tryscorer coming from the boys in blue.

[2hcb]

Re: My Rugby World Cup Tips.... Mustoe will do well I think, not as exciting as Brew, but solid and reliable. I really don't know why we signed Gough, we have Wales' future in AWJ and Evans then Cockbain in reserve. I don't want you guys turning into another Connacht or even worse a Borders. Gear is a kiwi not a scot btw.

[davidmphill]

Re: My Rugby World Cup Tips.... Best of luck DAC, enjoy reading your insights into all things Union.

[Wumpking]

Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread With only 50 days to go to the start of the big one and RWC threads commencing, I thought I'd stick my neck out with my thoughts on the tournament. Would welcome input from other forumites as to their views. So let's start by looking at the 20 countries who are coming to RWC 2007 and their current rankings and best bookie odds (Betfair offering better odds in several instances). IRB World Rankings as of 16/07/2007

Position (last week)	Member Union	IRB Rating points	Best Odds (Bookies)
1(1)	NEW ZEALAND	93.30	1/2
2(2)	AUSTRALIA	87.12	12/1
3(3)	FRANCE	85.66	11/1
4(4)	SOUTH AFRICA	84.85	13/2
5(5)	IRELAND	82.52	23/1
6(6)	ARGENTINA	82.43	80/1
7(7)	ENGLAND	78.93	33/1
8(8)	WALES	76.26	80/1
9(9)	ITALY	75.53	1000/1
10(10)	SAMOA	74.97	1000/1
11(11)	SCOTLAND	73.94	500/1
12(12)	FIJI	70.52	1000/1
13(13)	CANADA	70.06	5000/1
14(14)	TONGA	67.52	5000/1
15(15)	USA	67.20	5000/1
16(16)	ROMANIA	66.79	5000/1
17(17)	GEORGIA	66.38	5000/1
18(18)	JAPAN	65.85	5000/1
21(21)	PORTUGAL	62.03	10000/1
25(25)	NAMIBIA	57.15	5000/1

New Zealand are top of the IRB rankings and are clear favorites to win, but are they value at 1/2? Their record in the RWC is not great having ‘choked’ since their one and only victory in 1987 (e.g. losing to Australia in 2003, France in 1999, South Africa in 1995 & Australia in 1991). Will they choke again this year? And if so, who else could win? The answer to this, I feel, lies in analysing the groups and the route to the final. Pool A: England, South Africa, Samoa, USA, Tonga 08 Sept - England v USA (Lens) 09 Sept - South Africa v Samoa (Parc des Princes) 12 Sept - USA v Tonga (Montpellier) 14 Sept - England v South Africa (Stade de France) 16 Sept - Samoa v Tonga (Montpellier) 22 Sept - South Africa v Tonga (Lens) 22 Sept - England v Samoa (Nantes) 26 Sept - Samoa v USA (St Etienne) 28 Sept - England v Tonga (Parc des Princes) 30 Sept - South Africa v USA (Montpellier) (NB - significant matches are highlighted) On paper, a shoot out between South Africa and England for the winner/runner up, although Samoa could throw a spanner in the works and humiliate them. There’s a possibility that the Boks could be a bit battered after playing Samoa in their opening match on the 9th Sept whilst England’s reserves should easily beat the USofA, leading to an interesting game on the 14th between the two. I think the Boks will win this match however, and go on to win the group. England will overcome their potential banana Samoan skin and progress as runners up. Prediction: Winner - South Africa, Runner Up - England Pool B: Australia, Wales, Fiji, Canada, Japan 08 Sept - Australia v Japan (Lyon) 09 Sept - Wales v Canada (Nantes) 12 Sept - Japan v Fiji (Toulouse) 15 Sept - Wales v Australia (Cardiff) 16 Sept - Fiji v Canada (Cardiff) 20 Sept - Wales v Japan (Cardiff) 23 Sept - Australia v Fiji (Montpellier) 25 Sept - Canada v Japan (Bordeaux) 29 Sept - Australia v Canada (Bordeaux) 29 Sept - Wales v Fiji (Nantes) (NB - significant matches are highlighted) Again a shoot out between two teams, Wales and Australia. Both have an easy warm up match before the crunch game on the 15th Sept. The Aussies have looked good in the Tri Nations (still one match to come) but home advantage here could be crucial as the match is in the Millennium Stadium. Even though my heart says Wales, I’ve got a horrible feeling that the Aussies will win this match and subsequently the group. Prediction: Winner - Australia, Runner Up - Wales Pool C: New Zealand, Scotland, Italy, Romania, Portugal 08 Sept - New Zealand v Italy (Marseille) 09 Sept - Scotland v Portugal (St Etienne) 12 Sept - Italy v Romania (Marseille) 15 Sept - New Zealand v Portugal (Lyon) 18 Sept - Scotland v Romania (Edinburgh) 19 Sept - Italy v Portugal (Parc des Princes) 23 Sept - Scotland v New Zealand (Edinburgh) 25 Sept - Romania v Portugal (Toulouse) 29 Sept - New Zealand v Romania (Toulouse) 29 Sept - Scotland v Italy (St Etienne) (NB - significant matches are highlighted) Could it have been any easier for the All Blacks to progress to the Quarter Finals? For me the interest in this group lies in the runner-up berth. Italy will fancy their chances, particularly with a pack that boasts a number of world class forwards. Following on from their fantastic 6 Nations campaign, I think they’ll do the Scots. Prediction: Winner - New Zealand, Runner Up - Italy Pool D: France, Ireland, Argentina, Georgia, Namibia. 07 Sep - France v Argentina (Stade de France) 09 Sep - Ireland v Namibia (Bordeaux) 11 Sep - Argentina v Georgia (Lyon) 15 Sep - Ireland v Georgia (Bordeaux) 16 Sep - France v Namibia (Toulouse) 21 Sep - France v Ireland (Stade de France) 22 Sep - Argentina v Namibia (Marseille) 26 Sep - Georgia v Namibia (Lens) 30 Sep - France v Georgia (Marseille) 30 Sep - Ireland v Argentina (Parc des Princes) (NB - significant matches are highlighted) The inevitable tournament ‘Group of Death’ with 3 top rated sides fighting it out for 2 places. Any 2 of the 3 could go through as they are all capable of beating each other on their day. I think home support will assist France to group victory, with Ireland narrowly achieving runner-up status. Prediction: Winner - France, Runner Up - Ireland So, after 23 glorious days of group stage rugby we move on to the quarter finals. 06 Oct - Winner Pool B v Runner Up Pool A (Marseille) 06 Oct - Winner Pool C v Runner Up Pool D (Cardiff) 07 Oct - Winner Pool A v Runner Up Pool B (Marseille) 07 Oct - Winner Pool D v Runner Up Pool C (Stade de France) If my predictions are correct, this would translate to a mouth watering 3 games of rugby comprising of: Australia v England New Zealand v Ireland South Africa v Wales And also the less spectacular: France v Italy This is where it gets a bit trickier to predict. For example, England potentially could beat the Aussies by reverting to a 1 man rugby kicking game strategy via Wilkinson. Ireland have an almost home game playing in Cardiff against the All Blacks. Wales could surprise everyone and run the Boks ragged. I will however, plump for the following winners: Australia New Zealand South Africa France Following on from the quarters, the line ups for the semi finals are: 13 Oct – (Winner Pool B v Runner Up Pool A) v (Winner Pool C v Runner Up Pool D) 14 Oct – (Winner Pool A v Runner Up Pool B) v (Winner Pool D v Runner Up Pool C) or: 13 Oct – (Australia v England) v (New Zealand v Ireland) 14 Oct – (South Africa v Wales) v (France v Italy) or if my QFs predictions are correct: 13 Oct – Australia v New Zealand 14 Oct – South Africa v France Here I think the SHOCK of the tournament will happen with the All Blacks slipping up to a defense orientated Aussie side who sneak the win. Despite French passion, I think the Boks will end Gallic dreams. After the meaningless 3^rd place play off on the 19 Oct, we move on to the big one on the 20Oct (Stade de France), where if everything has gone to plan, Australia will be playing South Africa. I would anticipate a very, nervy tight game here with the Boks grinding out the victory. So there you are, South Africa to win it. What do you think? I’ve already placed a number of long term wagers over the past several months, some of which will be laid off as the tournament progresses to lock in a profit. I've currently got France at 14/1, South Africa at 12/1, Australia at 14/1 and Wales at 110/1. Will review these bets after the teams have been finalised in August.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup - 2007 My thoughts right now are that there really isn't much value around on this tournament. I really do think the ABs will make sure of it this time. The thing to do is have a bash at picking who will meet them in the final, France, SA, Ireland or even Argentina. That 12/1 you have on the Boks is excellent wumpking! There's a real chance Argentina could somehow make it out of that group as winners resulting in a clash with Italy or Scotland so perhaps they are some value. Don't rule out a Wales win against Australia, playing them at home is a huge advantage. Otherwise I don't expect the islanders to do much damage which is a shame. Still plenty of time for things to change with injries etc.

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Edited the thread title guys. As Wumpking has wrote a superb in depth preview in the 1st post we'll have this as the RWC official thread. Have seen the DAC initial thoughts thread and that's cool, I've no problem with having both. Once the tourney starts then this is the thread for all things RWC :ok Have made the thread a sticky too :ok

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread yes top marks for working out all the fixtures and everything wumpking :clap , glad rugby will now be on the front page for the next 3 months! :ok

[DAC]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Sorry chaps, didn't st see this thread, if you want to move mine to here then no problems. Good work wumpking, nice one! :ok

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Kevshat - many thanks for making this a sticky - much appreciated. Most of the statistical, betting and fixtures info I've simply collated and copied from other sites, etc, so no credit due there. The analysis and predictions are all mine however. 2hcb - you're right to highlight Argentina as a possible value bet (possibly the last value bet). They currently are trading at 110.0 on Betfair. They are considered only slightly inferior to Ireland on the current IRB ratings, yet are over 4 times the price. A lot of their players are European based so they'll be aclimatised to playing in France. If they make it out of the group that 110.0 will look so big (particularly if they win it and avoid NZ in the QFs) and will certainly give an excellent opportunity or laying off. I still hold out some hope that Wales will beat the Aussies and top the group. Home advantage should be worth around 6/7 points and could tip the scales. I would have been far more optimistic if Australia hadn't performed so well to date in the Tri Nations. With Latham returning they'll also be stronger. Perversely, coming second may be an easier route as the runner up of Pool B will avoid the All Blacks until the Final! DAC - your post was up first. I didn't want to hijack it with all the info I've been collating by posting a huge reply. My apologies.

[DAC]

Re: My Rugby World Cup Tips.... Cheers David! 2ncb. Yes, I'm aware of that...ha-ha. Don't worry about us becoming a Connacht or a Borders. Season ticket sales have gone really, really well and whilst I can't say to much about it at the moment we have another investor in line. We'll be fine.

[AJ]

Re: My Rugby World Cup Tips.... Should be a good thread, I'm getting ready to start laying the Ab's. Shockingly underpriced @ 1.48. They're not in good form, the combinations aren't working, Carter isn't playing well. The Aussies are trading at 13's and i'm going to have some. The Ab's look at pale shadow of last years team. Good pick on Nick Evens, I think he might actually play at full back, so it might be good value.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Well I'll put it this way, Argentina will be aroung 11/10 maybe evens against France and Ireland, if they win they'll be around 1/2 against italy or Scotland. So 3 winnable games and their in the semis. Obviously the problem is even if they come 2nd it's no use as they'll face NZ but I think they're value. I'm not giving up on Wales just yet, our 2nd string came within seconds of beating Australia down under don't forget, and as you say home advantage will be massive. Let's hope Ryan Jones is fit though.

[PAULM03]

Re: My Rugby World Cup Tips....

Should be a good thread, I'm getting ready to start laying the Ab's. Shockingly underpriced @ 1.48. They're not in good form, the combinations aren't working, Carter isn't playing well. The Aussies are trading at 13's and i'm going to have some. The Ab's look at pale shadow of last years team. Good pick on Nick Evens, I think he might actually play at full back, so it might be good value.

I'm really tempted to lay NZ. Head says go for it, heart says no way,they're going to walk it. I think the general standard this time round is much lower than last time. I think in 2003 England, France, Aus and NZ were all genuinely in with a chance. This time there's no European side looking like they're going to even go close. I suggested backing NZ last year just before they mullered France twice when they were still decent odds against, with the idea that were their form to continue you'd get a tasty opportunity to lay at good odds on. Wish I'd taken my own advice now.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Hi guys good to see this thread up nice and early and plenty of good contributions already, as discussed already it looks like we have missed the boat on any value on the outrights however I'm sure there will be several opportunities to make money as more markets get put up and also the individual matches themselves. Looking forward to contributing to this over the next few months and hearing the thoughts of other posters (Southern Hemisphere especially). Following on from 2hcb's post above and assuming that squad/team news etc is going to be posted here the breaking news today is that Ryan Jones will miss the World Cup: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/welsh/6899898.stm This is a massive blow to Wales, we have several capable backrow replacements but Ryan is one of the few players we have who can raise their game to getting on world class level, big pressure on Popham now to step in.

[PAULM03]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread merged:ok

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Ryan Jones missing out is a huge blow for our chances. our best ball carrier by far. :( .

[DAC]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Micheal Owen will have to play like he did in 2005, thats for sure.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread It'll be Popham surely?

[DAC]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread What price do you think Ireland will be come the crunch game against Argentina in group D? 4/5?

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread yeah i'd say so. in my argentina analysis I siad they'd be around 11/10-evens for the games against the Irish and French so that would seem like a likely price. A couple of injuries either way could really effect that group. Too early to call a winner for me.

[DAC]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread There is a profit making opportunity, albeit a small one, with taking ireland not to qual at 7/2 at Paddy Power and then backing Ireland to beat Argentina in the final game. What do you think?

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread gets scuppered if they beat the French though doesn't it. Like I say I'm not commiting to anything until nearer the time now, injuries like the one we've suffered with Ryan Jones can significantly change things.

[DAC]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread You are right in what you say..but..I don't have any confidence in Ireland at all and think the French will beat them quite easily. Lots of time to go though.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Groan - just read that Jones is out. Agree with you Cymro/2hcb that this is a big blow to Wales' chances. DAC - any chance Charvis will be picked? He for me was one the best Welsh backrows in the last Magners League season. I'm not sure however, that Jenkins likes him (why wasn't he in the 6 Nations?).

[davidmphill]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

Ryan Jones missing out is a huge blow for our chances. our best ball carrier by far. :( .

Agree totally, learnt of the news today and thats a huge blow already. Hopefully there won't be anymore or the squad will be stretched to its limits.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Are there any other players from other countries who forumites would consider crucial to their sides chances? For example, O'Driscoll for Ireland. Is there an betting angle here that could be exploited? I am sure however, the bookies would also be up their team news.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread O'Driscoll or O'Gara would be devestating for Ireland. BOD because of who he is and his talismanic status and O'Gara because Paddy Wallace is next in line. On Charvis, I think the most likely combination is him playing at 6.

[AJ]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread strongly fancy argentina to qualify